• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.51 no.10
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• pp.887-893
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• 2018

In this study, the optimum design technology is suggested by using reliability analysis method. Nowadays, urban flood inundation is easily occurred because of local heavy rain. Traditional deterministic design method for storm sewer may underestimate the size of pipe. Therefore, stochastic method for the storm sewer design is necessary to solve this problem. In the present study, reliability model using FORM (First Order Reliability Method) was developed for the storm sewer. Developed model was applied to the real storm sewers of 5 different areas. Probability of exceeding capacity has been calculated and construction costs according to diameter have been compared. Probability of exceeding capacity of storm sewers of 5 areas have been calculated after estimating the return period of rainfall intensity.

• Proceedings of the KSME Conference
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• 2004.11a
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• pp.852-857
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• 2004

A new and efficient method for estimating the statistical moments of a system performance function has been developed. The method consists of two steps: (1) An approximate response surface is generated by a quadratic regression model, and (2) the statistical moments of the regression model are then calculated by experimental design techniques proposed by Seo and $Kwak^{(4)}$. In this approach, the size of experimental region affects the accuracy of the statistical moments. Therefore, the region size should be selected suitably. The D-optimal design and the central composite design are adopted over the selected experimental region for the regression model. Finally, the Pearson system is adopted to decide the distribution type of the system performance function and to analyze structural reliability.

• Proceedings of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute Conference
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• 2003.04a
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• pp.103-110
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• 2003

A hybrid structural reliability analysis method that integrates a commercial finite element program and a reliability analysis algorithm is proposed to estimate the safety of real structures in this paper. Since finite element method (FEM) is most commonly and widely used in the analysis and design practice of real structures, it appears to be necessary to use general FEM program in the structural reliability analysis. In this case, simple conventional reliability methods cannot be used because the limit state function can only be expressed in an algorithmic form. The response surface method(RSM)-based reliability algorithm with the first-order reliability method (FORM) found to be ideal in this respect and is used in this paper. The intention of use of RSM is to develop, albeit approximately, an explicit expression of the limit state function for real structures. The applicability of the proposed method to real structures is examined with help of the example in consideration of a concrete dam. Both the strength and serviceability limit states are considered in this example.

• Journal of computational fluids engineering
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• v.17 no.2
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• pp.28-34
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• 2012

In this study, the reliability-based design optimization of the airfoil was performed. PARSEC function was used to consider the uncertainty of the aerodynamic shape for the reliability-based shape optimization of airfoils. Among various reliability analysis methods, the moment method was used to compute the probability of failure of the aerodynamic performance. The accuracy of the reliability analysis was compared with other methods and it was found that the moment method predicts the probability of failure accurately. Deterministic and reliability-based optimizations were performed for the shape of the airfoil and it was demonstrated that reliability-based optimum assures the aerodynamic performances under uncertainties of the shape of the airfoil.

• International Journal of Reliability and Applications
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• v.2 no.4
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• pp.269-280
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• 2001

The objective of this paper is to provide a model for effective implementation of costing RAM management in the design and procurement of production facility considering the system cost-performance trade-off. This research proposes a two-step approach of costing RAM design and test of system RAM for production facility. In Step 1, a static model is proposed to find an initial system configuration to meet the required performance based on system RAM and LCC and analyzes the trade-off relationships between various factors of RAM and LCC. In the second Step, we developed time and failure truncated models for system reliability test and analysis. For the computational purpose, we developed computer programs and have shown the sample results. By the sample test run, the proposed model has shown the possibilities to provide a good method to analyze system performance evaluation for both design and operational phase, This model can be applied to a wide variety of systems not only for costing RAM of the production facilities but also for the other kinds of equipment.

• Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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• v.33 no.12
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• pp.1464-1470
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• 2009

RBDO approach based on a sampling method with the Kriging metamodel and Constraint Boundary Sampling (CBS), which is sequential sampling method to generate metamodels is proposed. The major advantage of the proposed RBDO approach is that it does not require Most Probable failure Point (MPP) which is essential for First-Order Reliability Method (FORM)-based RBDO approach. The Monte Carlo Sampling (MCS), most well-known method of the sampling methods for the reliability analysis is used to assess the reliability of constraints. In addition, a Cumulative Distribution Function (CDF) of the constraints is approximated using Moving Least Square (MLS) method from empirical distribution function. It is possible to acquire a probability of failure and its analytic sensitivities by using an approximate function of the CDF for the constraints. Moreover, a concept of inactive design is adapted to improve a numerical efficiency of the proposed approach. Computational accuracy and efficiency of the proposed RBDO approach are demonstrated by numerical and engineering problems.

• Proceedings of the Korean Society of Precision Engineering Conference
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• 2004.10a
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• pp.700-703
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• 2004

A reliability analysis and design procedure based on the design of experiment (DOE) is combined with the response surface method (RSM) for numerical efficiency. The procedure established is based on a 3$^n$ full factorial DOE for numerical quadrature using explicit formula of optimum levels and weights derived for general distributions. The full factorial moment method (FFMM) shows good performance in terms of accuracy and ability to treat non-normally distributed random variables. But, the FFMM becomes very inefficient because the number of function evaluation required increases exponentially as the number of random variables considered increases. To enhance the efficiency, the response surface moment method (RSMM) is proposed. In RSMM, experiments only with high probability are conducted and the rest of data are complemented by a quadratic response surface approximation without mixed terms. The response surface is updated by conducting experiments one by one until the value of failure probability is converged. It is calculated using the Pearson system and the four statistical moments obtained from the experimental data. A measure for checking the relative importance of an experimental point is proposed and named as influence index. During the update of response surface, mixed terms can be added into the formulation.

• Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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• v.33 no.10
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• pp.1163-1170
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• 2009

Reliability analysis is of great importance in the advanced product design, which is to evaluate reliability due to the associated uncertainties. There are three types of uncertainties: the first is the aleatory uncertainty which is related with inherent physical randomness that is completely described by a suitable probability model. The second is the epistemic uncertainty, which results from the lack of knowledge due to the insufficient data. These two uncertainties are encountered in the input variables such as dimensional tolerances, material properties and loading conditions. The third is the metamodel uncertainty which arises from the approximation of the response function. In this study, an integrated method for the reliability analysis is proposed that can address all these uncertainties in a single Bayesian framework. Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method is employed to facilitate the simulation of the posterior distribution. Mathematical and engineering examples are used to demonstrate the proposed method.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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• v.27 no.6
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• pp.115-121
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• 2012

This paper, being the second in a two-part series, presents the robust performance of the proposed design method which can enhance a reliability-based design optimization(RBDO) under the uncertainties of probabilistic models. The robust performances of the solutions obtained by the proposed method, described in the Part 1, are investigated through the parametric studies. A 10-bar truss example is considered, and the uncertain parameters include the number of data observed, and the variations of applied loadings and allowable stresses. The numerical results show that the proposed method can produce a consistent result despite of the large variations in the parameters. Especially, even with the relatively small data set, the analysis results show that the exact probabilistic model can be successfully predicted with optimized design sections. This consistency of estimating appropriate probability model is also observed in the case of the variations of other parameters, which verifies the robustness of the proposed method.

• Wind and Structures
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• v.21 no.6
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• pp.597-607
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• 2015

With an increasing demand of a renewable energy, new offshore wind turbine farms are being planned in some parts of the world. Foundation installation asks a significant cost of the total budget of offshore wind turbine (OWT) projects. Hence, a cost reduction from foundation parts is a key element when a cost-efficient designing of OWT budget. Mono-piles have been largely used, accounting about 78% of existing OWT foundations, because they are considered as a most economical alternative with a relatively shallow-water, less than 30 m of seawater depth. OWT design standards such as IEC, GL, DNV, API, and Eurocode are being developed in a form of reliability based limit state design method. In this paper, reliability analysis using the response surface method (RSM) and numerical simulation technique for an OWT mono-pile foundation were performed to investigate the sensitivities of mono-pile design parameters, and to find practical implications of RSM reliability analysis.