• 무역상무연구
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• 제29권
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• pp.143-172
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• 2006

This study focuses on the risk management of "Digital Goods" appeared with the progress of information technology(IT) in international transaction. As a result of that digital goods have a lot of uncertainty between the general goods or service which have been deal with object of international transaction broadly because digital goods hold uniqueness. In this study, the author give a definition of "Digital Goods" and make an examination of uniqueness of that in international transaction. Next, six risks are defined base on risk theory and risk analysis matrix applying risk mapping model is made. Conclusionally, risk transfer as insurance is adequate to manage business risk, security risk, credit risk and legal risk. Meanwhile, risk avoidance is adequate to manage reputation risk and market risk. But, this study have following three limits. Firstly, concerning definition of the risk, real case is not applied owing to lack of transaction data. Secondly, measuring of the risk is not based on absolute data but relative data. Lastly, suggesting way of risk management is not concrete and practical to international trader of digital goods.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• 제16권13호
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• pp.5225-5231
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• 2015

Background: One of the most prevalent cancers in whole world is skin cancer and its prevalence is growing. The present research sought to estimate relative risk of morbidity and mortality due to skin cancer. Materials and Methods: In this cross-sectional study. The required data were gathered from the registered cancer reports of Cancer Control Office in the Center for Non Communicable Disease of the Iranian Ministry of Health (MOH). The data were extracted at province level in the time span of 2008-10. WINBUGS software was used to analyze the data and to identify high risk regions. ArcGIS10 was utilized to map the distribution of skin cancer and to demonstrate high risk provinces by using classic and fully Bayesian models taking into account spatial correlations of adjacent regions separately for men and women. Results: Relative risk of morbidity for women in Yazd and for men in Kurdistan and relative risk of mortality for women in Bushehr and for men in Kohgiluyeh were found to be the highest. Bayesian model due to regarding adjacent regions correlation, have precise estimation in comparing to classical model. More frequent epidemiological studies to enact skin cancer prevention programs. Conclusions: High risk regions in Iran include central and highland regions. Therefore it is suggested that health decision makers enact public education, using anti UV creams and sunglasses for those parts as a short preventing program.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• 제16권14호
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• pp.5917-5921
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• 2015

Background: Prostate cancer is the most commonly diagnosed form of cancer and the sixth leading cause of cancer-related deaths among men in the entire world. Reported standardized incidence rates are 12.6, 61.7, 11.9 and 27.9 in Iran, developed countries, developing countries and the entire world, respectively. The present study investigated the relative risk of PC in Iran at the province level and also explored the impact of some factors by the use of Bayesian models. Materials and Methods: Our study population was all men with PC in Iran from 2005 to 2008. Considered risk factors were smoking, fruit and vegetable intake, physical activity, obesity and human development index. We used empirical and full Bayesian models to study the relative risk in Iran at province level to estimate the risk of PC more accurately. Results: In Iran from 2005 to 2008 the total number of known PC cases was 10,361 with most cases found in Fars and Tehran and the least in Ilam. In all models just human development index was found to be significantly related to PC risk Conclusions: In the unadjusted model, Fars, Semnam, Isfahan and Tehran provinces have the highest and Sistan-and-Baluchestan has the least risk of PC. In general, central provinces have high risk. After adjusting for covariates, Fars and Zanjan provinces have the highest relative risk and Kerman, Northern Khorasan, Kohgiluyeh Boyer Ahmad, Ghazvin and Kermanshah have the lowest relative risk. According to the results, the incidence of PC in provinces with higher human development index is higher.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• 제16권14호
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• pp.5787-5792
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• 2015

Background: Reported age standardized incidence rates for esophageal cancer in Iran are 0.88 and 6.15 for females and males, at fifth and the eighth ranks, respectively, of cancers overall. The present study aimed to map relative risk using more realistic and less problematic methods than common estimators. Materials and Methods: In this ecological investigation, the studied population consisted of all esophageal cancer patients in Iran from 2005 to 2007. The Bayesian multilevel space-time model with three levels of county, province, and time was used to measure the relative risk of esophageal cancer. Analyses were conducted using R package INLA. Results: The total number of registered patients was 7,160. According to the results, the three-level model with adjustment for risk factors of physical activity and smoking had the best fit among all models. The overall temporal trend was significantly increasing. At county level, Ahar, Marand, Salmas, Bojnoord, Saghez, Sarakhs, Shahroud and Torbatejam had the highest relative risks. Physical activity was found to have significant direct association with risk of developing esophageal cancer. Conclusions: Given to great variation across geographical areas, many different factors affect the incidence of esophageal cancer. Conducting further studies at the individual level in areas with high incidence could provide more detailed information on risk factors of esophageal cancer.

• 응용통계연구
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• 제35권5호
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• pp.619-629
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• 2022

5대 강력범죄(살인, 강도, 강간·강제추행, 절도, 폭력)는 사회 구성원들의 안전을 위협하는 대표 범죄들로 일상생활에서 자주 발생한다. 이러한 범죄들은 사회 구성원들의 삶의 질을 떨어뜨리는 등 부정적인 영향을 미친다. 대한민국의 수도인 서울의 경우, 지방에 있는 많은 인구가 서울로 이동하면서 서울의 인구 밀도는 증가하고, 이로 인해 5대 강력범죄 발생 위험성도 증가하고 있다. 본 연구에서는 이러한 위험성을 줄이기 위해 세 가지의 시공간 모형을 이용하여 서울의 5대 강력범죄 발생에 대한 상대위험도를 모델링하였다. 게다가, 상대위험도에 유의한 영향을 미치는 위험요인을 살펴보기 위해 다양한 위험요인을 포함하였다. 최적의 모형을 선택하기 위해 편차정보기준을 이용하였으며, 최적의 모형을 중심으로 다양한 시각화를 포함한 분석결과를 제공하였다. 본 연구는 각 자치구의 상대위험도와 5대 강력범죄에 대한 위험에 유의한 영향을 미치는 위험요인을 분석함으로써, 사람들의 안전한 일상생활을 유지하기 위한 효율적인 전략을 수립하는 데 도움을 준다.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• 제17권3호
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• pp.1433-1436
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• 2016

Background: Cholangiocarcinoma (CCA), a major problem of health in Thailand, particularly in Northeastern and Northern regions, is generally incurable and rapidly lethal because of presentation in stage 3 or 4. Early diagnosis of stage 1 and 2 could allow better survival. Therefore, this study aimed to provide a distribution map of populations at risk for CCA in BuaYai district of Nakhon Ratchasima province, Northeast Thailand. Materials and Methods: A cross-sectional survey was carried out in 10 sub-districts and 122 villages, during June and November 2015. The populations at risk for CCA were screened using the Korat CCA verbal screening test (KCVST) and then risk areas were displayed by using Google map (GM). Results: A total of 11,435 individuals from a 26,198 population completed the KCVST. The majority had a low score of risk for CCA (1-4 points; 93.3%). High scores with 6, 7 and 8 points accounted for 1.20%, 0.13% and 0.02%. The population at risk was found frequently in sub-district municipalities, followed by sub-district administrative organization and town municipalities, (F=396.220, P-value=0.000). Distribution mapping comprised 11 layers: 1, district; 2, local administrative organization; 3, hospital; 4, KCVST opisthorchiasis; 5, KCVST praziquantel used; 6, KCVST cholelithiasis; 7, KCVST raw fish consumption; 8, KCVST alcohol consumption; 9, KCVST pesticide used; 10, KCVST relative family with CCA; and 11, KCVST naive northeastern people. Geovisual display is now available online. Conclusions: This study indicated that the population at high risk of CCA in Bua Yai district is low, therefore setting a zero model project is possible. Key success factors for disease prevention and control need further study. GM production is suitable for further CCA surveillance and monitoring of the population with a high risk score in this area.

• 대한원격탐사학회:학술대회논문집
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• 대한원격탐사학회 2003년도 Proceedings of ACRS 2003 ISRS
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• pp.981-983
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• 2003

The Remote Sensing Group of the Mines and Geosciences Bureau (MGB) has acquired SAR data of the Central Cebu Island for its research study area. The MGB is one of the proponent of DOST-NASA PACRIM II Project, which is composed of eleven (11) agencies and institutions in the Philippines, that focuses on the scientific application of radar data with the theme on hazard and natural resources management. The PACRIM II Project, being done on three-year term, is slated for completion in the year 2004. The main thrust of the project study of the MGB is the baseline environmental monitoring studies, on which the data are to be fused with some other available data from LandSAT and photogrammetry. The generated data is part of the information for the update of thematic mapping being done. The 12 ${\times}$ 60 km swath AirSAR data covers the Central Cebu Island. The highlights of conducting this research project are: Extent of Watershed Basin boundaries - identification of the tributaries that drain water supply to the metropolitan area; Monitoring of the mountain highways - identification of landslide risk prone sites as part of natural hazard monitoring on a national highway that cuts along the mountainous areas; and Coastline change assessment - monitoring the coastline activities relative to the rapid urbanization and exposure as part of coastal management. The Phase 1 of this report discusses the fusion with the ArcView generated data as baseline studies on the monitoring activities.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• 제16권14호
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• pp.5669-5673
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• 2015

Background: Breast cancer is the most prevalent kind of cancer among women in Iran. Regarding the importance of cancer prevention and considerable variation of breast cancer incidence in different parts of the country, it is necessary to recognize regions with high incidence of breast cancer and evaluate the role of potential risk factors by use of advanced statistical models. The present study focussed on incidence of breast cancer in Iran at the province level and also explored the impact of some prominent covariates using Bayesian models. Materials and Methods: All patients diagnosed with breast cancer in Iran from 2005 to 2008 were included in the study. Smoking, fruit and vegetable intake, physical activity, obesity and the Human Development Index (HDI), measured at the province level, were considered as potential modulating factors. Gamma-Poisson, log normal and BYM models were used to estimate the relative risk of breast cancer in this ecological investigation with and without adjustment for the covariates. Results: The unadjusted BYM model had the best fit among applied models. Without adjustment, Isfahan, Yazd, and Tehran had the highest incidences and Sistan- Baluchestan and Chaharmahal-Bakhtiari had the lowest. With the adjusted model, Khorasan-Razavi, Lorestan and Hamedan had the highest and Ardebil and Kohgiluyeh-Boyerahmad the lowest incidences. A significantly direct association was found between breast cancer incidence and HDI. Conclusions: BYM model has better fit, because it contains parameters that allow including effects from neighbors. Since HDI is a significant variable, it is also recommended that HDI should be considered in future investigations. This study showed that Yazd, Isfahan and Tehran provinces feature the highest crude incidences of breast cancer.

• 한국환경보건학회지
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• 제36권3호
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• pp.182-190
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• 2010

We examined the association of particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter < $10\;{\mu}m$ ($PM_{10}$) with asthma-related hospitalization, stratified by socioeconomic status (SES), among children less than 15 years of age in Seoul, Korea, between 2003 and 2005. In addition, we estimated the reduction in the number of asthma-related hospitalizations that would result from implementing the World Health Organization (WHO) guideline. SES was defined based on data concerning health insurance premium grades, and grouped into two levels: lower-income group and control group. The lower-income group was classified as having an accumulated income which did not exceed the 50th percentile of the median income. Time-series analysis was performed to evaluate the association between $PM_{10}$ and asthma-related hospitalization. The Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program was used to analyze the impact on children's health. Based upon an increase of $10\;{\mu}g/m^3$ of $PM_{10}$, the asthma-related hospitalization risk for the lower-income group was increased by 1.78% (95% confidence intervals (CI) = 0.79-2.78%), while the risk for the control group was increased by 0.83% (95% CI = 0.34-1.32%). Attaining the WHO guideline, relative to the concentration in 2007, would result in a reduction in asthma-related hospitalizations of 18 cases per 100,000 of the children population in the lower-income group, and 7 cases in the control group. The health benefits of improved air quality for children in the lower-income group were thus 2.5 times greater than for children in the control group. Our results show that the lower-income group is disproportionately burdened with asthma-related hospitalization arising from air pollution. Therefore, biologically- and socioeconomically-disadvantaged populations should be considered in public health interventions in order to protect the children's health.