• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
• /
• 제19권2호
• /
• pp.413-420
• /
• 2008

This paper suggests a marginal logit mixed-effects for analyzing repeated binary response data. Since binary repeated measures are obtained over time from each subject, observations will have a certain covariance structure among them. As a plausible covariance structure, 1st order auto-regressive correlation structure is assumed for analyzing data. Generalized estimating equations(GEE) method is used for estimating fixed effects in the model.

• 한국자동차공학회논문집
• /
• 제8권6호
• /
• pp.156-164
• /
• 2000

In this study, a discrete time model for a simplified front wheel suspension system which has nonlinear dampling and stiffness property is introduced. The model is estimated from the discrete data which are generated based on the real car parameter. The performance of the proposed method is evaluated through numerical simulation, and the simulation results show that the proposed method can estimate the nonlinear behavior of the suspension system very well.

• 한국건축시공학회:학술대회논문집
• /
• 한국건축시공학회 2014년도 춘계 학술논문 발표대회
• /
• pp.14-15
• /
• 2014

The modular construction is as yet early stage of market in Korea. So It is have difficulty of market demand forecast of the modular building. Therefore, this study was done analysis for market trends of the modular building using ARIMA(Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average) model by time series data.

• 한국사회복지학
• /
• 제63권4호
• /
• pp.277-299
• /
• 2011

본 논문은 복지국가와 조세체계의 관계를 분석했다. 먼저 보편적 복지국가에 조응하는 조세체계는 직접세와 간접세, 누진세와 역진세, 유동적 세원과 비유동적 세원 간의 이분법적 선택의 문제가 아니라 대립되는 조세 모두의 확대에 근거한다. 다만 보편주의 복지국가의 급여가 모든 시민에게 보편적으로 제공되듯, 보편주의 복지급여를 위한 재원 또한 보편적 세금을 통해 모든 계층이 부담해야한다. 유형화의 결과는 크게 고세금 유럽형과 저세금 유형으로 구분되었고, 두 가지 유형을 세분해서 보면 고세금 유럽형은 균형조세유형과 저사회보장세유형으로, 이러한 분석을 통해 본 연구는 보편적 복지국가는 단순히 복지재원을 확대하는 것이 아니라 보편적 복지국가에 조응하는 조세체계가 필요하다고 주장한다.

• 제어로봇시스템학회:학술대회논문집
• /
• 제어로봇시스템학회 2005년도 ICCAS
• /
• pp.342-345
• /
• 2005

This paper describes dynamics analysis of a small training boat and a new type of ship's autopilot not only to keep her course but also to reduce her roll motion. Firstly, statistical analysis through multi-variate auto regressive model is carried out using the real data collected from the sea trial on an actual small training boat Sazanami after the navigational system of the boat was upgraded. It is shown that the roll motion is strongly influenced by the rudder motion and it is suggested that there is a possibility of reducing the roll motion by controlling the rudder order properly. Based on this observation, a new type of ship's autopilot that takes the roll motion into account is designed using the muti-variate modern control theory. Lastly, digital simulations by white noise are carried out in order to evaluate the proposed system and a typical result is demonstrated. As results of simulations, the proposed autopilot had good performance compared with the original data.

• Journal of Positioning, Navigation, and Timing
• /
• 제9권2호
• /
• pp.89-98
• /
• 2020

Prediction of clock behaviors is necessary to generate very high stable system time which is essential for a satellite navigation system. For the purpose, we applied the Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model to the prediction of two hydrogen masers' behaviors with respect to the rapid Coordinated Universal Time (UTCr). Using the packaged programming language R, we made an analysis and prediction of time series data of [UTCr - clocks]. The maximum variation width of the residuals which were obtained by the difference between the predicted and measured values, was 6.2 ns for 106 days. This variation width was just one-sixth of [UTCr-UTC (KRIS)] published by the BIPM for the same period. Since the two hydrogen masers were found to be strongly correlated, we applied the Vector Auto-Regressive Moving Average (VARMA) model for more accurate prediction. The result showed that the prediction accuarcy was improved by two times for one hydrogen maser.

• Smart Structures and Systems
• /
• 제17권6호
• /
• pp.1031-1053
• /
• 2016

The health conditions of in-service civil infrastructures can be evaluated by employing structural health monitoring technology. A reliable health evaluation result depends heavily on the quality of the data collected from the structural monitoring sensor network. Hence, the problem of sensor fault diagnosis has gained considerable attention in recent years. In this paper, an innovative sensor fault diagnosis method that focuses on fault detection and isolation stages has been proposed. The dynamic or auto-regressive characteristic is firstly utilized to build a multivariable statistical model that measures the correlations of the currently collected structural responses and the future possible ones in combination with the canonical correlation analysis. Two different fault detection statistics are then defined based on the above multivariable statistical model for deciding whether a fault or failure occurred in the sensor network. After that, two corresponding fault isolation indices are deduced through the contribution analysis methodology to identify the faulty sensor. Case studies, using a benchmark structure developed for bridge health monitoring, are considered in the research and demonstrate the superiority of the new proposed sensor fault diagnosis method over the traditional principal component analysis-based and the dynamic principal component analysis-based methods.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
• /
• 제26권3호
• /
• pp.261-272
• /
• 2019

In this paper, we propose a procedure to build a prediction interval of the sum of dependent binary random variables over a graph to account for the dependence among binary variables. Our main interest is to find a prediction interval of the weighted sum of dependent binary random variables indexed by a graph. This problem is motivated by the prediction problem of various elections including Korean National Assembly and US presidential election. Traditional and popular approaches to construct the prediction interval of the seats won by major parties are normal approximation by the CLT and Monte Carlo method by generating many independent Bernoulli random variables assuming that those binary random variables are independent and the success probabilities are known constants. However, in practice, the survey results (also the exit polls) on the election are random and hardly independent to each other. They are more often spatially correlated random variables. To take this into account, we suggest a spatial auto-regressive (AR) model for the surveyed success probabilities, and propose a residual based bootstrap procedure to construct the prediction interval of the sum of the binary outcomes. Finally, we apply the procedure to building the prediction intervals of the number of legislative seats won by each party from the exit poll data in the $19^{th}$ and $20^{th}$ Korea National Assembly elections.

• Animal Bioscience
• /
• 제34권4호
• /
• pp.770-782
• /
• 2021

Objective: The aim of the present study was to compare the effectiveness of three approaches (the seasonal auto-regressive integrated moving average [SARIMA] model, the nonlinear autoregressive exogenous [NARX] artificial neural networks and Wood's model) to the prediction of milk yield during lactation. Methods: The dataset comprised monthly test-day records from 965 Polish Holstein-Friesian Black-and-White primiparous cows. The milk yields from cows in their first lactation (from 5 to 305 days in milk) were used. Each lactation was divided into ten lactation stages of approximately 30 days. Two age groups and four calving seasons were distinguished. The records collected between 2009 and 2015 were used for model fitting and those from 2016 for the verification of predictive performance. Results: No significant differences between the predicted and the real values were found. The predictions generated by SARIMA were slightly more accurate, although they did not differ significantly from those produced by the NARX and Wood's models. SARIMA had a slightly better performance, especially in the initial periods, whereas the NARX and Wood's models in the later ones. Conclusion: The use of SARIMA was more time-consuming than that of NARX and Wood's model. The application of the SARIMA, NARX and Wood's models (after their implementation in a user-friendly software) may allow farmers to estimate milk yield of cows that begin production for the first time.

• 한국전산구조공학회:학술대회논문집
• /
• 한국전산구조공학회 1989년도 가을 학술발표회 논문집
• /
• pp.46-50
• /
• 1989

Methods for the estimation of the coefficient matrices in the equation of motion for a linear multi-degree-of-freedom structure arc studied. For this purpose, the equation of motion is transformed into an auto-regressive and moving average with auxiliary input (ARMAX) model. The ARMAX parameters are evaluated using several methods of parameter estimation; such as toe least squares, the instrumental variable, the maximum likelihood and the limited Information maximum likelihood methods. Then the parameters of the equation of motion are recovered therefrom. Numerical example is given for a 3-story building model subjected to an earthquake exitation.