• 한국수산과학회지
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• 제57권2호
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• pp.177-185
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• 2024

We developed a regional ocean climate model using dynamic downscaling in the Northwest Pacific Ocean to build a climate model for the Korean Peninsula. The past marine environment was reproduced through historical simulations, and the future marine environment in 2100 was predicted according to the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP) climate change scenario. The future sea surface temperature of the Korean seas is predicted to rise about 1-4℃, and the increase in water temperature in the East Sea is expected to be the largest. The National Institute of Fisheries Science has monitored abnormal seawater temperatures such as high and low seawater temperatures in coastal and inland waters, and predicted that the number of high seawater temperature days in the East, West, South Sea, and the coast of Jeju Island will increase in the future. In addition, the occurrence of Ciguatera fish poison plankton around Jeju Island was projected to increase. This study is expected to provide accurate forecasting information for fishery issues. The aim of this study was to analyze future ocean environment changes around the Korean Peninsula using climate change SSP scenarios and predict fisheries issues through future projections of the regional ocean climate model.

• Ocean and Polar Research
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• 제34권4호
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• pp.431-444
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• 2012

We simulated and compared present and future ocean circulation in the East China Sea using an East Asia Regional Ocean model. Mean climate states for 1990~1999 and 2030~2039 were used as surface conditions for simulations of present and future ocean circulation, which were derived from the simulations of three different global climate models, ECHAM5-MPI, GFDL-CM2.0 and MIROC3.2_hires, for the 20th century and those of 21st century as projected by the IPCC SRES A1B. East Asia Regional Ocean model simulated the detailed patterns of temperature, salinity and current fields under present and future climate conditions and their changes instead of the simple structures of global climate models. To some extent, there are consistent ocean circulation changes derived from the three pairs corresponding to the global climate model in so much as the temperature increases not only in winter but summer at both the surface and bottom and that temperature and salinity changes are prominent near the Chinese coast and in the Changjiang bank. However, the simulated circulations are different among each other depending on the prescribed atmospheric conditions not only under present climate but also with regard to future climate conditions. There is not a coincident tendency in ocean circulation changes between present and future simulations derived from the three pairs. This suggests that more simulations with different pairs are needed.

• 대기
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• 제29권2호
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• pp.115-129
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• 2019

Surface winds over the ocean influence not only the climate change through air-sea interactions but the coastal erosion through the changes in wave height and direction. Thus, demands on a reliable projection of future changes in surface winds have been increasing in various fields. For the future projections, climate models have been widely used and, as a priori, their simulations of surface wind are required to be evaluated. In this study, we evaluate the climatological mean surface winds over the Korean Waters simulated by five regional climate models participating in Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) for East Asia (EA), an international regional climate model inter-comparison project. Compared with the ERA-interim reanalysis data, the CORDEX-EA models, except for HadGEM3-RA, produce stronger wind both in summer and winter. The HadGEM3-RA underestimates the wind speed and inadequately simulate the spatial distribution especially in summer. This summer wind error appears to be coincident with mean sea-level pressure in the North Pacific. For wind direction, all of the CORDEX-EA models simulate the well-known seasonal reversal of surface wind similar to the ERA-interim. Our results suggest that especially in summer, large-scale atmospheric circulation, downscaled by regional models with spectral nudging, significantly affect the regional surface wind on its pattern and strength.

• Ocean and Polar Research
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• 제42권3호
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• pp.211-223
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• 2020

With the increasing demand for improved marine environments and safety, greater ability to minimize damages to coastal areas from harmful organisms, ship accidents, oil spills, etc. is required. In this regard, an accurate assessment and understanding of current systems is a crucial step to improve forecasting ability. In this study, we examine spatial and temporal characteristics of current systems in the adjacent seas of Jeju Island using a high-resolution regional ocean circulation model. Our model successfully captures the features of tides and tidal currents observed around Jeju Island. The tide form number calculated from the model result ranges between 0.3 and 0.45 in the adjacent seas of Jeju Island, indicating that the dominant type of tides is a combination of diurnal and semidiurnal, but predominantly semidiurnal. The spatial pattern of tidal current ellipses show that the tidal currents oscillate in a northwest-southeast direction and the rotating direction is clockwise in the adjacent seas of Jeju Island and counterclockwise in the Jeju Strait. Compared to the mean kinetic energy, the contribution of tidal current energy prevails the most parts of the region, but largely decreases in the eastern seas of Jeju Island where the Tsushima Warm Current is dominant. In addition, a Lagrangian particle-tracking experiment conducted suggests that particle trajectories in tidal currents flowing along the coast may differ substantially from the mean current direction. Thus, improving our understanding of tidal currents is essential to forecast the transport of marine pollution and harmful organisms in the adjacent seas of Jeju Island.

• 한국해안·해양공학회논문집
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• 제32권6호
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• pp.373-383
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• 2020

본 연구에서는 한반도 중심 해역을 포함하는 북서태평양 영역에서의 폭풍해일 예측을 위해 NEMO(Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean) 모형을 이용하여 지역규모의 폭풍해일 예측시스템을 구축하였다. 이 시스템은 조석과 해일 예측으로 구성되어 있으며보다 정확한 폭풍해일을 예측하기 위해 수심자료와 대기-해양 경계에서의 모수화(parameterization) 최적화 과정을 수행하였다. 이를 통해 2018년 8~10월과 태풍 솔릭 사례에 대하여 국립해양조사원 조위 관측자료를 이용한 통계 방법을 적용하여 검증을 수행하고, 이를 POM(Princeton Ocean Model) 기반의 예측모델 결과와 비교하였다. 수행결과 NEMO 기반의 폭풍해일 예측시스템이 POM 기반의 예측결과에 비해 평균오차와 RMSE가 각각 약 29%와 약 20% 감소한 것으로 나타났으며, 태풍 시기에도 NEMO 기반 예측결과에서 전반적으로 오차가 낮게 나타났다.

• Ocean and Polar Research
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• 제42권3호
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• pp.179-194
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• 2020

The present study aims to evaluate the effects of satellite-based SST (OSTIA) assimilation on a regional ocean circulation model for the Yellow and East China Seas (YECS), using three different assimilation methods: the Ensemble Optimal Interpolation (EnOI), Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF), and 4-Dimensional Variational (4DVAR) techniques, which are widely used in the ocean modeling communities. The model experiments show that an improved initial condition by assimilating the SST affects the seasonal water temperature and water mass distributions of the YECS. In particular, the SST data assimilation influences the temperature structures horizontally and vertically in winter, thereby improving the behavior of the YS warm current water. This is due to the fact that during wintertime the water column is well mixed, which is directly updated by the SST assimilation. The model comparisons indicate that the SST assimilation can improve the model performance in resolving the subsurface structures in wintertime, but has a relatively small impact in summertime due to the strong stratification. The differences among the different assimilation experiments are obvious when the SST was sharply changed due to a typhoon passage. Overall, the EnKF and 4DVAR show better agreement with the observations than the EnOI. The relatively low performance of EnOI under storm conditions may be related with a limitation of EnOI method whereby an analysis is obtained from a number of climatological fields, and thus the typhoon-induced SST changes in short-time scales may not be adequately reflected in the data assimilation.

• 한국해양학회지:바다
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• 제22권3호
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• pp.103-117
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• 2017

이 노트는 국립해양조사원이 5년(2012~2016년)간에 걸쳐 지역해(동해, 황 동중국해) 수치예측시스템을 구축하여 자동으로 끊임없이 운영하면서 확보한 기술들 중 다음 3가지를 담고 있다. (1) 끊임없이 3일 해양예측 자료를 생산하기 위한 전략, (2) 매일 특정시각에 외부 해양 기상자료(HYCOM, NOAA/NCEP GFS)를 안정적으로 내려 받는 방법과 (3) 해양예측시스템 운영자들이 휴대전화 단문 메시지 서비스(Short Message Service)를 이용하여 해양예측시스템 수행 시 발생하는 시스템 오류를 신속하게 파악할 수 있는 기능에 관하여 기술하였다. 이들 기본 기술과 운영시스템 구성의 기본 개념은 지역해와 연안 해양 수치예측시스템을 자동으로 운영하는 체계를 구축하는 데 있어서 유용하게 사용될 것이다.

• Ocean and Polar Research
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• 제43권2호
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• pp.53-63
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• 2021

Changes in a marine environment have a broad socioeconomic implication on fisheries and their relevant industries so that there has been a growing demand for the medium-range (months to years) prediction of the marine environment Using a medium-range ocean prediction model (Ocean Mid-range prediction System, OMIDAS) for the northwest Pacific, this study attempted to assess seasonal difference in the mid-range predictability of the sea surface temperature (SST), focusing on the Korea seas characterized as a complex marine system. A three-month re-forecast experiment was conducted for each of the four seasons in 2016 starting from January, forced with Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) forecast data. The assessment using relative root-mean-square-error was taken for the last month SST of each experiment. Compared to the CFSv2, the OMIDAS revealed a better prediction skill for the Korea seas SST, particularly in the Yellow sea mainly due to a more realistic representation of the topography and current systems. Seasonally, the OMIDAS showed better predictability in the warm seasons (spring and summer) than in the cold seasons (fall and winter), suggesting seasonal dependency in predictability of the Korea seas. In addition, the mid-range predictability for the Korea seas significantly varies depending on regions: the predictability was higher in the East Sea than in the Yellow Sea. The improvement in the seasonal predictability for the Korea seas by OMIDAS highlights the importance of a regional ocean modeling system for a medium-range marine prediction.

• 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국수자원학회 2015년도 학술발표회
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• pp.253-253
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• 2015

This research evaluated the effect of two main sources on the results of the ocean regional circulation model (ORCMs) during downscaling and nesting the results from the coarse data. The two sources should be the domain size, and temporal and spatial resolution different between driving and driven data. The Big-Brother Experiment is applied to examine the impact of them on the results of the ORCMs separately. Within resolution of 3km grid point ORCMs applying in the Big-Brother Experiment framework, it showed that the simulation results of the ORCMs depend on the domain size and specially the spatial and temporal resolution of lateral boundary conditions (LBCs). The domain size can be selected at 9.5 times larger than the interest area, and the spatial resolution between driving data and driven model can be up to 3 of ratio resolution and updating frequency of the LBCs can be up to every 6 hours per day.

• 한국지하수토양환경학회지:지하수토양환경
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• 제6권3호
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• pp.61-71
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• 2001

A regional master recession curve model to predict groundwater discharges in a given basin was presented. Considering a stream-aquifer system, both theoretical and experimental baseflow equations were compared and a practical groundwater discharge equation was derived, The groundwater discharge equation was expanded and transformed to the discharge equation at the basin exit. For practical use, the equation was expressed as a function of watershed area, the mean slope of basin and the recession constant. To verify the model, the model was applied to Ssang-chi basin where long-term and temporal hydrological data at the upper basin were collected. Our results show that a master recession curve of unmeasured area can be predicted.