• 대한토목학회논문집
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• 제29권1B호
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• pp.23-33
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• 2009

전 세계적으로 기후변화, 이상기후와 과거에는 경험하지 못했던 극한 사상이 미래에는 어떠한 크기와 출현빈도를 가지고 공간적 분포가 변화하게 될지 관심이 높아지고 있다. 그러나 이들 사상은 일정한 지역 또는 규칙적인 패턴이나 주기를 따르지 않아 그 빈도와 경향성을 정량적으로 평가하기에는 무리가 있다. 본 연구에서는 극한 사상을 보다 객관적으로 평가하기 위하여 강우 관련 극한 지수(STARDEX, 2005)를 제시하였다. 현재와 미래 극한 사상의 시공간적 분포를 비교하기 위하여 우리나라 전역에 위치한 기상청 산하 66개 관측소의 과거 자료로부터 각 지수들을 산정하여 현재까지의 경향성을 분석하고, SRES B2시나리오와 YONU CGCM으로부터 모의된 2045s(2031-2050)자료를 이용하여 미래의 극한 사상의 각 지수별 차이를 산정한 후 그 경향성을 공간적으로 나타내었다. 그 결과 여름철에는 동서 방향으로 내륙 전반에 걸쳐 강우량 증가 경향성을 보였으며 가을철에는 강원도 일부 지역과 남해안 지역을 중심으로 경향성이 증가하는 것으로 나타났다. 한편, 강우 발생이나 집중 시기와 대별되는 건조 지속기간 분석 결과에서는 여름철보다 가을철 상승 경향성이 더 큰 것으로 나타났으며, 제주도와 해안부근에서 증가 경향성이 뚜렷하였다.

• 한국제4기학회지
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• 제24권1호
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• pp.1-10
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• 2010

The Indian summer monsoon behaved an abnormal way in 2002 and as a result there was a large deficiency in precipitation (especially in July) over a large part of the Indian subcontinent. For the study of deficient monsoon of 2002, a recent version of the NCAR regional climate model (RegCM3) has been used to examine the important features of summer monsoon circulations and precipitation during 2002. The main characteristics of wind fields at lower level (850 hPa) and upper level (200 hPa) and precipitation simulated with the RegCM3 over the Indian subcontinent are studied using different cumulus parameterization schemes namely, mass flux schemes, a simplified Kuo-type scheme and Emanuel (EMU) scheme. The monsoon circulation features simulated by RegCM3 are compared with the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis and simulated precipitation is validated against observation from the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC). Validation of the wind fields at lower and upper levels show that the use of Arakawa and Schubert (AS) closure in Grell convection scheme, a Kuo type and Emanuel schemes produces results close to the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis. Similarly, precipitation simulated with RegCM3 over different homogeneous zones of India with the AS closure in Grell is more close to the corresponding observed monthly and seasonal values. RegcM3 simulation also captured the spatial distribution of deficient rainfall in 2002.

• 한국콘텐츠학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국콘텐츠학회 2016년도 춘계 종합학술대회 논문집
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• pp.241-242
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• 2016

Recent abnormal climate change induces localized heavy rainfall and extreme disasters such as debris flow near urban area. Thus many researches have been conducted to estimate and prevent, especially in focus of physical behavior of debris flow. Even though it is hardly to consider overall related parameters to estimate the extent and degree of directly or indirectly damages due to debris flow. Those analytic restraint would be caused by the diversity and complexity of regional topographic and hydrodynamic characteristics of debris flow inside. We have utilized the Bayesian method to compensate the uncertainty due to the complex characteristics of it after analyzing the numerical results from FLO-2D and field measurement data. Revised values by field measurements will enhance the numerical results and the missing parameters during numerical simulation will be supplemented with this methodology. As a final outcome in this study, the risk index of debris flow damage will be suggested to provide quantitative estimation in terms of hazard protection including the impact on buildings, especially in inner and outer of urban area.

• 한국환경과학회지
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• 제19권5호
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• pp.591-605
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• 2010

This study were to simulate major criteria air pollutants and estimate regional source-receptor relationship using air quality prediction model (TAPM ; The Air Pollution Model) in the Seoul Metropolitan area. Source-receptor relationship was estimated by contribution of each region to other regions and region itself through dividing the Seoul metropolitan area into five regions. According to administrative boundary, region I and region II were Seoul and Incheon in order. Gyeonggi was divided into three regions by directions like southern(region III), northern(IV) and eastern(V) area. Gridded emissions ($1km{\times}1km$) by Clean Air Pollicy Support System (CAPSS) of National Institute of Environmental Research (NIER) was prepared for TAPM simulation. The operational weather prediction system, Regional Data Assimilation and Prediction System (RDAPS) operated by the Korean Meteorology Administration (KMA) was used for the regional weather forecasting with 30km grid resolution. Modeling period was 5 continuous days for each season with non-precipitation. The results showed that region I was the most air-polluted area and it was 3~4 times more polluted region than other regions for $NO_2$, $SO_2$ and PM10. Contributions of $SO_2$ $NO_2$ and PM10 to region I, II and III were more than 50 percent for their own sources. However region IV and V were mostly affected by sources of region I, II and III. When emissions of all regions were assumed to reduce 10 and 20 percent separately, air pollution of each region was reduced linearly and the contributions of reduction scenario were similar to those of base case. As input emissions were reduced according to different ratio - region I 40 percent, region II and III 20 percent, region IV and V 10 percent, air pollutions of region I and III were decreased remarkably. The contributions to region I, II, III were also reduced for their own sources. However, region I, II and III affected more regions IV and V. Shortly, graded reduction of emission could be more effective to control air pollution in emission imbalanced area.

• 한국농공학회논문집
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• 제59권3호
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• pp.83-96
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• 2017

This study presented a surface water quality modeling framework considering the spatial resolution of pollutant load estimation to better represent stream water quality characteristics in the Saemangeum watershed which has been focused on keeping its water resources sustainable after the Saemangeum embankment construction. The watershed delineated into 804 sub-watersheds in total based on the administrative districts, which were units for pollutant load estimation and counted as 739 in the watershed, Digital Elevation Model (DEM), and agricultural structures such as drainage canal. The established model consists of 7 Mangyung (MG) sub-models, 7 Dongjin (DJ) sub-models, and 3 Reclaimed sub-models, and the sub-models were simulated in a sequence of upstream to downstream based on its connectivity. The hydrologic calibration and validation of the model were conducted from 14 flow stations for the period of 2009 and 2013 using an automatic calibration scheme. The model performance to the hydrologic stations for calibration and validation showed that the Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient (NSE) ranged from 0.66 to 0.97, PBIAS were -31.0~16.5 %, and $R^2$ were from 0.75 to 0.98, respectively in a monthly time step and therefore, the model showed its hydrological applicability to the watershed. The water quality calibration and validation were conducted based on the 29 stations with the water quality constituents of DO, BOD, TN, and TP during the same period with the flow. The water quality model were manually calibrated, and generally showed an applicability by resulting reasonable variability and seasonality, although some exceptional simulation results were identified in some upstream stations under low-flow conditions. The spatial subdivision in the model framework were compared with previous studies to assess the consideration of administrative boundaries for watershed delineation, and this study outperformed in flow, but showed a similar level of model performance in water quality. The framework presented here can be applicable in a regional scale watershed as well as in a need of fine-resolution simulation.

• 한국방재학회 논문집
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• 제8권3호
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• pp.23-27
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• 2008

대규모 육지수문모형(Land Surface Model, LSM)에서 종합적인 육지 물흐름 및 에너지흐름의 예측을 위해 새로운 지표면-지표하 연계 물흐름 모형이 지표하 물흐름 모의를 위한 3차원 체적평균 토양수분 이송방정식(Volume Averaged Soil-moisture Transpor, VAST)을 지표수 흐름모의를 위한 1차원 확산방정식과 연계하여 개발되었다. 각 흐름특성에 맞는 복합적인 수치해석법이 적용되어, 시간분할 방법에 의해 3차원 VAST 방정식의 종방향 흐름이 완전음해법에 의해 해석된 후, 횡방향 흐름이 양해법으로 구해지며, 그 후에 1차원 확산방정식은 MacCormack 유한차분법으로 계산한다. 이 새로운 흐름연계모형은 최신의 육지수문모형인 CLM(Common Land Model)내의 기존 1차원 수리수문계산부분을 대체하게 된다. CLM과 결합된 새로운 연계흐름모형은 오하이오 계곡부근의 시험유역에 적용되었으며, 모의결과는 지표면-지표하 물흐름 상호작용의 모의와 지표수 흐름추적방법을 사용한 새로운 모형의 유출예측이 실측치에 더 근접함을 보여준다. 이 개선된 육지수문모형은 지역적, 대륙적, 그리고 지구전체를 다루는 수문기상연구와 기후변화로 인한 재해예방을 위하여 기상모형인 CWRF(Climate extension of the next-generation Weather Research and Forecasting)와 연계될 예정이다.

• 한국토양비료학회지
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• 제46권6호
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• pp.434-444
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• 2013

In order to evaluate drought risk at upland according to climate change scenario (RCP8.5), we have carried out the simulation using agricultural water balance estimation model, called AFKAE0.5, at 66 weather station sites in 2020, 2046, 2050, 2084, and 2090. Total Drought Risk Index between the first month (f) and last month (l) (TDRI(f/l)) and maximum continuous drought risk index (MCDRI(f/l)) were defined as the index for analyzing pattern and strength of drought simulated by the model. Based on distribution maps of MCDRI (1/12), drought strength was predicted to be most severe in 2084 for all regions. Some regions showed severe risk of drought meaning over 20 days of MCDRI (1/12) in the other years, while MCDRI (1/12) in other regions did not reach 5 days. Even though maximum value of TDRI (1/12) in 2090 was greater than in 2050, more severe drought risk in 2050 than in 2090 was predicted based on MCDRI (4/6). It implies that drought risk should be assessed for each crop with its own growing season.

• 한국대기환경학회지
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• 제32권3호
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• pp.256-271
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• 2016

The source and transport of the severe Asian dust event (ADE) recently observed in the Korean peninsula were analyzed based on observations (surface weather charts and satellite data) and modeling study (WRF-CMAQ modeling systems). The ADE occurred on 20-21 March 2010 in South Korea with very high $PM_{10}$ concentrations (up to approximately $3,000{\mu}g/m^3$ in Daegu and Jeju). The dominant meteorological conditions affecting the dust outbreak and transport processes were found to be associated with the two synoptic features: (1) strong airflows (i.e., westerlies) induced by a strong pressure gradient resulting from a dense isobar pattern (west-high and east-low) between Tuva Republic and Mongolia and (2) a rapid movement of the strong westerlies merged with airflows generated near Gobi Desert and Inner Mongolia. The merged strong westerlies with a low pressure played a pivotal role in the huge amount of AD and its transport height of 5-8 km. The time and location of dust emissions calculated in the source regions were similar to those observed in the weather charts and satellite image. The ADE simulation mostly showed agreement in the patterns and the concentration levels of modeled dust (including $PM_{10}$) with those of the observations.

• 한국도로학회논문집
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• 제13권2호
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• pp.95-102
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• 2011

융설액 분사 시스템은 강설이 예상되거나 진행 중인 상황에서 즉시 대응이 가능하며, 강설 초기에 효율적인 처리로 강설로 인해 발생 가능한 교통사고와 교통 지정체를 감소시킬 수 있는 장점을 가지고 있다. 그러나 시스템의 설치비용이 고가이고, 설치되는 장비의 종류에 따라 운영 및 유지관리 비용이 지속적으로 소요되기 때문에 모든 도로 구간에 설치하는 것은 현실적으로 불가능하다. 최근 국내에서는 결빙 위험 구간을 파악할 수 있는 프로그램들이 개발되어 턴키 및 대안 설계에 활용되고 있다. 그러나 프로그램 개발 업체들마다 분석 방식이 상이하고 객관적인 기준이 없는 실정이다. 이에 따라 융설시스템 적용구간에 대한 기준 마련도 시급하다고 볼 수 있다. 본 연구에서는 선형, 기상조건, 일조조건 등을 다양한 도로 조건을 정량화하여 어떤 구간에 우선적으로 융설시스템을 적용하여야 하는지 판단할 수 있는 기준을 제시한다. 이를 위해 국내 지역별 기상 조사, 지형지물에 의해 음지 발생 여부 분석, 선형과 미끄럼 저항성을 고려한 차량 시뮬레이션 등을 수행하고 이론적 검토를 통해 설치 기준 방법론을 정립하는데 중점을 둔다.

• Journal of Electrical Engineering and Technology
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• 제13권1호
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• pp.513-520
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• 2018

Since Paris Climate Change Conference in 2015, many policies to reduce the emission of greenhouse gas have been accelerating, which are mainly related to renewable energy resources and micro-grid. Presently, the technology development and demonstration projects are mostly focused on diversifying the power resources by adding wind turbine, photo-voltaic and battery storage system in the island-type small micro-grid. It is expected that the large-scaled micro-grid projects based on the regional district and town/complex city, e.g. the block type micro-grid project in Daegu national industrial complex will proceed in the near future. In this case, the economic cost or the carbon emission can be optimized by the efficient operation of energy mix and the appropriate construction of electric and heat supplying facilities such as cogeneration, renewable energy resources, BESS, thermal storage and the existing heat and electricity supplying networks. However, when planning a large residential town or city, the concrete plan of the energy infrastructure has not been established until the construction plan stage and provided by the individual energy suppliers of water, heat, electricity and gas. So, it is difficult to build the efficient energy portfolio considering the characteristics of town or city. This paper introduces an energy mix optimization(EMO) method to determine the optimal capacity of thermal and electric resources which can be applied in the design stage of the real large-scaled residential town or city, and examines the feasibility of the proposed method by applying the real heat and electricity demand data of large-scale residential towns with thousands of households and by comparing the result of HOMER simulation developed by National Renewable Energy Laboratory(NREL).