• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• v.36 no.2
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• pp.103-136
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• 2014

The covered interest rate parity condition (CIRP) has been widely used in open macroeconomic analysis, risk management, exchange rate forecasts, and so forth. Due to the recent global financial crises, there have been remarkable changes in the financial markets of the emerging markets. These changes possibly influenced the dynamics of the covered interest rate parity condition. In this paper, we investigate whether the CIRP dynamics has changed, and what is the nature of the regime changes. To do this, we propose and estimate multiple-state Markov regime switching models using a Bayesian MCMC method. Our estimation results indicate that the default risk or the deviation from the CIRP has been decreased after the crisis. It seems to be associated with the more active interaction between the short-term bond market and the short-term foreign exchange market than before. The tightened relation of these two financial markets is caused by the arbitrage transaction of foreign investors.

• The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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• v.22 no.2
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• pp.165-187
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• 2005

This paper tries to investigate the relationships among stock return volatility, time-varying risk premium and Korea Discount. Using Korean Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI) return from January 4, 1980 to August 31, 2005, this study finds possible links between time-varying risk premium and Korea Discount. First of all, this study classifies Korean stock returns during the sample period by three regime-switching volatility period that is to say, low-volatile period medium-volatile period and highly-volatile period by estimating Markov-Switching ARCH model. During the highly volatile period of Korean stock return (09/01/1997-05/31/2001), the estimated time-varying unit risk premium from the jump-diffusion GARCH model was 0.3625, where as during the low volatile period (01/04/1980-l1/30/1985), the time-varying unit risk premium was estimated 0.0284 from the jump diffusion GARCH model, which was about thirteen times less than that. This study seems to find the evidence that highly volatile Korean stock market may induce large time-varying risk premium from the investors and this may lead to Korea discount.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.8 no.9
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• pp.1-9
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• 2021

This study aimed to investigate the existence of the Feldstein-Horioka (1980) puzzle in international macroeconomics by applying the conditional Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model to examine the long-run relationship between national savings and investments in Thailand and China. The input of this study relied on annual national savings and investments as a fraction of GDP during 1980-2019 which was collected from China National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) and Thailand National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC). Hypothetically, Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) and Phillips-Perron (PP) unit root tests were applied to test the stationary properties and to investigate the integration level of selected time series. The empirical results, confirmed by cumulative sum (CUSUM) and cumulative sum square (CUSUMSQ), maintained no serial correlation and structural break problems. The finding of this study suggested that the Feldstein-Horioka puzzle in Thailand did not exist significantly. Thailand's national savings and investments nexus was independent, following the classic economic idea that financial liberalization, or perfect capital mobility, allowed national savings and investments to flow freely to countries with better interest rates. Whereas, a strong significant correlation was found in the case of China during the fixed exchange rate regime switching in 1994 and post WTO participation after 2001-2019.

• Management & Information Systems Review
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• v.35 no.3
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• pp.1-22
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• 2016

We analyzed the international comovements and structural changes in the quarterly real GDP by the Markov-switching vector autoregressive model (MS-VAR) from 1971(1) to 2016(1). The main results of this study were as follows. First, the business cycle phenomenon that occurs in the models or individual time series in real GDP has been grasped through the MS-VAR models. Unlike previous studies, this study showed the significant comovements, asymmetry and structural changes in the MS-VAR model using a real GDP across countries. Second, even if there was a partial difference, there were remarkable structural changes in the economy contraction regime(recession), such as 1988(2) ending the global oil shock crisis and 2007(3) starting the global financial crisis by the MS-VAR model. Third, large-scale structural changes were generated in the economic expansion and/or contraction regime simultaneously among countries. We found that the second world oil shocks that occurred after the first global oil shocks of 1973 and 1974 were the main reasons that caused the large-scale comovements of the international real GDP among countries. In addition, the spillover between Korea and 5 countries has been weak during the Asian currency crisis from 1997 to 1999, but there was strong transmission between Korea and 5 countries at the end of 2007 including the period of the global financial crisis. Fourth, it showed characteristics that simultaneous correlation appeared to be high due to the country-specific shocks generated for each country with the regime switching using real GDP since 1973. Thus, we confirmed that conclusions were consistent with a number of theoretical and empirical evidence available, and the macro-economic changes were mainly caused by the global shocks for the past 30 years. This study found that the global business cycles were due to large-scale asymmetric shocks in addition to the general changes, and then showed the main international comovements and/or structural changes through country-specific shocks.