• Title/Summary/Keyword: real-time weather variables

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Application of ANFIS for Prediction of Daily Water Supply (상수도 1일 급수량 예측을 위한 ANFIS적용)

  • Rhee, Kyoung-Hoon;Kang, Il-Hwan;Moon, Byoung-Seok
    • Journal of Korean Society of Water and Wastewater
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    • v.14 no.3
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    • pp.281-290
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    • 2000
  • This study investigates the prediction of daily water supply, which is a necessary for the efficient management of water distribution system. ANFIS, namely artificial intelligence, is a neural network into which fuzzy information is inputted and then processed. In this study, daily water supply was predicted through an application of network-based fuzzy inference system(ANFIS) for daily water supply prediction. This study was investigated methods for predicting water supply based on data about the amount of water which supplied in Kwangju city. For variables choice, four analyses of input data were conducted: correlation analysis, autocorrelation analysis, partial autocorrelation analysis, and cross-correlation analysis. Input variables were (a) the amount of water supply, (b) the mean temperature, and (c) the population of the area supplied with water. Variables were combined in an integrated model. Data of the amount of daily water supply only was modelled and its validity was verified in the case that the meteorological office of weather forecast is not always reliable. Proposed models include accidental cases such as a suspension of water supply. The maximum error rate between the estimation of the model and the actual measurement was 18.46% and the average error was lower than 2.36%. The model is expected to be a real-time estimation of the operational control of water works and water/drain pipes.

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Verification of Nonpoint Sources Runoff Estimation Model Equations for the Orchard Area (과수재배지 비점오염부하량 추정회귀식 비교 검증)

  • Kwon, Heon-Gak;Lee, Jae-Woon;Yi, Youn-Jeong;Cheon, Se-Uk
    • Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
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    • v.30 no.1
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    • pp.8-15
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    • 2014
  • In this study, regression equation was analyzed to estimate non-point source (NPS) pollutant loads in orchard area. Many factors affecting the runoff of NPS pollutant as precipitation, storm duration time, antecedent dry weather period, total runoff density, average storm intensity and average runoff intensity were used as independent variables, NPS pollutant was used as a dependent variable to estimate multiple regression equation. Based on the real measurement data from 2008 to 2012, we performed correlation analysis among the environmental variables related to the rainfall NPS pollutant runoff. Significance test was confirmed that T-P ($R^2=0.89$) and BOD ($R^2=0.79$) showed the highest similarity with the estimated regression equations according to the NPS pollutant followed by SS and T-N with good similarity ($R^2$ >0.5). In the case of regression equation to estimate the NPS pollutant loads, regression equations of multiplied independent variables by exponential function and the logarithmic function model represented optimum with the experimented value.

Building battery deterioration prediction model using real field data (머신러닝 기법을 이용한 납축전지 열화 예측 모델 개발)

  • Choi, Keunho;Kim, Gunwoo
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.243-264
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    • 2018
  • Although the worldwide battery market is recently spurring the development of lithium secondary battery, lead acid batteries (rechargeable batteries) which have good-performance and can be reused are consumed in a wide range of industry fields. However, lead-acid batteries have a serious problem in that deterioration of a battery makes progress quickly in the presence of that degradation of only one cell among several cells which is packed in a battery begins. To overcome this problem, previous researches have attempted to identify the mechanism of deterioration of a battery in many ways. However, most of previous researches have used data obtained in a laboratory to analyze the mechanism of deterioration of a battery but not used data obtained in a real world. The usage of real data can increase the feasibility and the applicability of the findings of a research. Therefore, this study aims to develop a model which predicts the battery deterioration using data obtained in real world. To this end, we collected data which presents change of battery state by attaching sensors enabling to monitor the battery condition in real time to dozens of golf carts operated in the real golf field. As a result, total 16,883 samples were obtained. And then, we developed a model which predicts a precursor phenomenon representing deterioration of a battery by analyzing the data collected from the sensors using machine learning techniques. As initial independent variables, we used 1) inbound time of a cart, 2) outbound time of a cart, 3) duration(from outbound time to charge time), 4) charge amount, 5) used amount, 6) charge efficiency, 7) lowest temperature of battery cell 1 to 6, 8) lowest voltage of battery cell 1 to 6, 9) highest voltage of battery cell 1 to 6, 10) voltage of battery cell 1 to 6 at the beginning of operation, 11) voltage of battery cell 1 to 6 at the end of charge, 12) used amount of battery cell 1 to 6 during operation, 13) used amount of battery during operation(Max-Min), 14) duration of battery use, and 15) highest current during operation. Since the values of the independent variables, lowest temperature of battery cell 1 to 6, lowest voltage of battery cell 1 to 6, highest voltage of battery cell 1 to 6, voltage of battery cell 1 to 6 at the beginning of operation, voltage of battery cell 1 to 6 at the end of charge, and used amount of battery cell 1 to 6 during operation are similar to that of each battery cell, we conducted principal component analysis using verimax orthogonal rotation in order to mitigate the multiple collinearity problem. According to the results, we made new variables by averaging the values of independent variables clustered together, and used them as final independent variables instead of origin variables, thereby reducing the dimension. We used decision tree, logistic regression, Bayesian network as algorithms for building prediction models. And also, we built prediction models using the bagging of each of them, the boosting of each of them, and RandomForest. Experimental results show that the prediction model using the bagging of decision tree yields the best accuracy of 89.3923%. This study has some limitations in that the additional variables which affect the deterioration of battery such as weather (temperature, humidity) and driving habits, did not considered, therefore, we would like to consider the them in the future research. However, the battery deterioration prediction model proposed in the present study is expected to enable effective and efficient management of battery used in the real filed by dramatically and to reduce the cost caused by not detecting battery deterioration accordingly.

AN OBSERVATION PROGRAM FOR THE SOAO 2K CCD CAMERA (소백산천문대 2K CCD 카메라용 관측 프로그램 개발)

  • KIM SEUNG-LEE;KYEONG JAE-MANN;KWON SUN-GIL;YOUN JAE-HYOUK
    • Publications of The Korean Astronomical Society
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    • v.16 no.1
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    • pp.37-42
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    • 2001
  • We developed an observation program for a 2K CCD camera, which was newly attached at the SOAO (Sobaeksan Optical Astronomy Observatory) 61cm telescope. The program was designed to control the telescope as well as the CCD camera and to monitor the CCD image quality, with very easy under the window-based graphical user interface (GUI). Furthermore, applying the automated differential photometric algorithm, we can obtain the instrumental magnitudes of several variable and comparison stars in real-time. Simultaneous photometry enables us to get precise differential magnitudes of variable stars even if the weather condition is not photometric. This new observation system has been using for many astronomical observations from September, 2001.

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Comparison of Machine Learning Techniques in Urban Weather Prediction using Air Quality Sensor Data (실외공기측정기 자료를 이용한 도심 기상 예측 기계학습 모형 비교)

  • Jong-Chan Park;Heon Jin Park
    • The Journal of Bigdata
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    • v.6 no.2
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    • pp.39-49
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    • 2021
  • Recently, large and diverse weather data are being collected by sensors from various sources. Efforts to predict the concentration of fine dust through machine learning are being made everywhere, and this study intends to compare PM10 and PM2.5 prediction models using data from 840 outdoor air meters installed throughout the city. Information can be provided in real time by predicting the concentration of fine dust after 5 minutes, and can be the basis for model development after 10 minutes, 30 minutes, and 1 hour. Data preprocessing was performed, such as noise removal and missing value replacement, and a derived variable that considers temporal and spatial variables was created. The parameters of the model were selected through the response surface method. XGBoost, Random Forest, and Deep Learning (Multilayer Perceptron) are used as predictive models to check the difference between fine dust concentration and predicted values, and to compare the performance between models.

Development of Nonpoint Sources Runoff Load Estimation Model Equations for the Vineyard Area (포도밭에 대한 비점오염물질 유출량 추정 모델식 개발)

  • Yoon, Young-Sam;Kwon, Hun-Gak;Yi, Youn-Jung;Yu, Jay-Jung;Lee, Jae-Kwan
    • Journal of Environmental Science International
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    • v.19 no.7
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    • pp.907-915
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    • 2010
  • Agriculture nonpoint pollution source is a significant contributor to water quality degradation. To establish effective water quality control policy, environpolitics establishment person must be able to estimate nonpoint source loads to lakes and streams. To meet this need for orchard area, we investigated a real rainfall runoff phenomena about it. We developed nonpoint source runoff estimation models for vineyard area that has lots of fertilizer, compost specially between agricultural areas. Data used in nonpoint source estimation model gained from real measuring runoff loads and it surveyed for two years(2008-2009 year) about vineyard. Nonpoint source runoff loads estimation models were composed of using independent variables(rainfall, storm duration time(SDT), antecedent dry weather period(ADWP), total runoff depth(TRD), average storm intensity(ASI), average runoff intensity(ARI)). Rainfall, total runoff depth and average runoff intensity among six independent variables were specially high related to nonpoint source runoff loads such as BOD, COD, TN, TP, TOC and SS. The best regression model to predict nonpoint source runoff load was Model 6 and regression factor of all water quality items except for was $R^2=0.85$.

Analysis of the Total System Error Correlation of Hybrid Fixed-Wing UAV (Unmanned Aerial Vehicle) according to Environmental Factor (환경요인에 따른 복합형 수직이착륙 무인항공기의 통합 시스템 오차 상관도 분석)

  • Songgeun Eom;Jeongmin Kim;Jeonghwan Oh;Dongjin Lee;Doyoon Kim;Sanghyuck Han
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Aviation and Aeronautics
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    • v.31 no.1
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    • pp.11-17
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    • 2023
  • In this study, the correlation analysis between total system error and environmental factor variables was performed to confirm the effect on the performance of the integrated navigation system by various environmental factors. To collect flight data of hybrid vertical take-off and landing UAVs, scenarios including various turning sections and straight sections such as left turn, right turn, turning rate, and path change angle were selected, and environmental data of wind direction, wind speed, temperature, air pressure, and humidity were collected in real time through weather station. As a result of the correlation analysis between the collected flight data and environmental data, it was concluded that the performance of the integrated navigation system by environmental factors within the collected data was not significant affected and was robust.

Intelligent Optimal Route Planning Based on Context Awareness (상황인식 기반 지능형 최적 경로계획)

  • Lee, Hyun-Jung;Chang, Yong-Sik
    • Asia pacific journal of information systems
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    • v.19 no.2
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    • pp.117-137
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    • 2009
  • Recently, intelligent traffic information systems have enabled people to forecast traffic conditions before hitting the road. These convenient systems operate on the basis of data reflecting current road and traffic conditions as well as distance-based data between locations. Thanks to the rapid development of ubiquitous computing, tremendous context data have become readily available making vehicle route planning easier than ever. Previous research in relation to optimization of vehicle route planning merely focused on finding the optimal distance between locations. Contexts reflecting the road and traffic conditions were then not seriously treated as a way to resolve the optimal routing problems based on distance-based route planning, because this kind of information does not have much significant impact on traffic routing until a a complex traffic situation arises. Further, it was also not easy to take into full account the traffic contexts for resolving optimal routing problems because predicting the dynamic traffic situations was regarded a daunting task. However, with rapid increase in traffic complexity the importance of developing contexts reflecting data related to moving costs has emerged. Hence, this research proposes a framework designed to resolve an optimal route planning problem by taking full account of additional moving cost such as road traffic cost and weather cost, among others. Recent technological development particularly in the ubiquitous computing environment has facilitated the collection of such data. This framework is based on the contexts of time, traffic, and environment, which addresses the following issues. First, we clarify and classify the diverse contexts that affect a vehicle's velocity and estimates the optimization of moving cost based on dynamic programming that accounts for the context cost according to the variance of contexts. Second, the velocity reduction rate is applied to find the optimal route (shortest path) using the context data on the current traffic condition. The velocity reduction rate infers to the degree of possible velocity including moving vehicles' considerable road and traffic contexts, indicating the statistical or experimental data. Knowledge generated in this papercan be referenced by several organizations which deal with road and traffic data. Third, in experimentation, we evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed context-based optimal route (shortest path) between locations by comparing it to the previously used distance-based shortest path. A vehicles' optimal route might change due to its diverse velocity caused by unexpected but potential dynamic situations depending on the road condition. This study includes such context variables as 'road congestion', 'work', 'accident', and 'weather' which can alter the traffic condition. The contexts can affect moving vehicle's velocity on the road. Since these context variables except for 'weather' are related to road conditions, relevant data were provided by the Korea Expressway Corporation. The 'weather'-related data were attained from the Korea Meteorological Administration. The aware contexts are classified contexts causing reduction of vehicles' velocity which determines the velocity reduction rate. To find the optimal route (shortest path), we introduced the velocity reduction rate in the context for calculating a vehicle's velocity reflecting composite contexts when one event synchronizes with another. We then proposed a context-based optimal route (shortest path) algorithm based on the dynamic programming. The algorithm is composed of three steps. In the first initialization step, departure and destination locations are given, and the path step is initialized as 0. In the second step, moving costs including composite contexts into account between locations on path are estimated using the velocity reduction rate by context as increasing path steps. In the third step, the optimal route (shortest path) is retrieved through back-tracking. In the provided research model, we designed a framework to account for context awareness, moving cost estimation (taking both composite and single contexts into account), and optimal route (shortest path) algorithm (based on dynamic programming). Through illustrative experimentation using the Wilcoxon signed rank test, we proved that context-based route planning is much more effective than distance-based route planning., In addition, we found that the optimal solution (shortest paths) through the distance-based route planning might not be optimized in real situation because road condition is very dynamic and unpredictable while affecting most vehicles' moving costs. For further study, while more information is needed for a more accurate estimation of moving vehicles' costs, this study still stands viable in the applications to reduce moving costs by effective route planning. For instance, it could be applied to deliverers' decision making to enhance their decision satisfaction when they meet unpredictable dynamic situations in moving vehicles on the road. Overall, we conclude that taking into account the contexts as a part of costs is a meaningful and sensible approach to in resolving the optimal route problem.

A Study of Prediction of Daily Water Supply Usion ANFIS (ANFIS를 이용한 상수도 1일 급수량 예측에 관한 연구)

  • Rhee, Kyoung-Hoon;Moon, Byoung-Seok;Kang, Il-Hwan
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.31 no.6
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    • pp.821-832
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    • 1998
  • This study investigates the prediction of daily water supply, which is a necessary for the efficient management of water distribution system. Fuzzy neuron, namely artificial intelligence, is a neural network into which fuzzy information is inputted and then processed. In this study, daily water supply was predicted through an adaptive learning method by which a membership function and fuzzy rules were adapted for daily water supply prediction. This study was investigated methods for predicting water supply based on data about the amount of water supplied to the city of Kwangju. For variables choice, four analyses of input data were conducted: correlation analysis, autocorrelation analysis, partial autocorrelation analysis, and cross-correlation analysis. Input variables were (a) the amount of water supplied (b) the mean temperature, and (c)the population of the area supplied with water. Variables were combined in an integrated model. Data of the amount of daily water supply only was modelled and its validity was verified in the case that the meteorological office of weather forecast is not always reliable. Proposed models include accidental cases such as a suspension of water supply. The maximum error rate between the estimation of the model and the actual measurement was 18.35% and the average error was lower than 2.36%. The model is expected to be a real-time estimation of the operational control of water works and water/drain pipes.

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Analysis on the Use Behavioral Patterns and Use Fluctuation over the Tong-Ch′on Amusement Park (동촌유원지의 이용실태 및 변동분석)

  • 김용수;임원현
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture
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    • v.15 no.1
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    • pp.17-37
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    • 1987
  • The purpose of this study is to establish more rational and practical planning theory for amusement park. It analyze and consider the fluctuation of people who come and use the Tong-Ch'on amusement park. The results drawn from this reserch work are as follows; 1. The main visitors of the Tong-Ch'on amusement park are students in their twenties and thirties, and people whose incomes are below 300,000 Won a month. The purpose of visit is for a rest rather than for amusement and user prefer summer, while the user is so rare in wintertime. Those phenomena observed are somewhat different from the real purpose of a amusement park which is on purpose to make profits by offering entertainments to the users. So planner should pay attention to the three points. They are varieties, seasonable diversification and fantastic character of facilties, in the amusement park. 2. The access time of the Tong-Ch'on amusement park was 41 minutes, the use frequency was 4 times a year and resident time was 164 minutes. The relationship of the three factors are as follows; log Y(F) =1.7832-0.0277(A.T) R$^2$=0.75 Y(R. F)=31.8885+3.3217(A.T) R$^2$=0.53 Y(R. T)=224.8959-87.8309 1og(F) R$^2$=0.38 F;Use frequency(time/year) A.T;Access Time(minute) R.T;Resident Time(minute) 3. In the choice of space, there were much differences according to tole user's age, job, degree of education, companion type and purpose of use. 4. There are considerable correlation between use fluctuation and some factors. The factors are season(summer, winter) as a time, temperature, cloud amount, duration of sunshine, weather(rainy-day) as a climate and a day of the week(weekday, holiday) as a social system. The important variables are temperature, cloud amount, duration of sunshine and a day of the week(weekday, holiday) to estimate the user of amusementpark. 5. 1 can reduce the following two types of regression models. 1) log$\sub$e/ Y1 = 6.9114 + 0.l135 TEM + 0.00002 SUN -0.4068W1 + 0.4316 W3 (R$^2$= 0.94) 2) log$\sub$e/ Y2 = 7.2069 + 0.l177 TEM - 0.0990 CLO + 0.4880 W3 (R$^2$=0.95) Y; Number of User TEM; Temperature CLO; Amount of cloud SUN; Duration of Sunshine W1; Weekday W3; Holiday Those model is in order to estimate the user for management of Tong-Ch'on amusement park and use on the computation of facility sloe for reconstruction. Besides the amusement park, city park and outdoor recreation area could estimate of user through this method. But, I am not sure about the regression models because I did not apply the regression models to the other amusement park, city Park or outdoor recreation area. Therefore, I think that this problem needs to be studied on in the future.

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