• Journal of Korea Technology Innovation Society
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• v.14 no.3
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• pp.578-598
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• 2011

This study estimates the value of photovoltaic core material technology, which is getting attention as a clean energy source. The estimation is based on the real option pricing model (ROPM). This study has two main contributions. The first is in the methodology. The process of modeling volatility, which is the most complicated stage in ROPM, is greatly simplified by using the stock price as a covariate representing the volatility of the real option's basic asset. The second contribution is the application of technology. In this study, the economic value of poly-silicon, a core material in the photovoltaic industry and recently surging in demand, is evaluated as a manufacturing technology. In a case study of a company in the photovoltaic industry, the stochastic process of a basic asset follows geometric Brownian motion (GBM), and the option value of firm A's poly-silicon manufacturing technology is estimated at 3.4 trillion won.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.22 no.3
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• pp.589-596
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• 2011

The conditional autoregressive value at risk (CAViaR) model is useful for risk management, which does not require the assumption that the conditional distribution does not vary over time but the volatility does. But it does not provide volatility forecasts, which are needed for several important applications such as option pricing and portfolio management. For a variety of probability distributions, it is known that there is a constant relationship between the standard deviation and the distance between symmetric quantiles in the tails of the distribution. This inspires us to use a support vector quantile regression (SVQR) for volatility forecasts with the distance between CAViaR forecasts of symmetric quantiles. Simulated example and real example are provided to indicate the usefulness of proposed forecasting method for volatility.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.30 no.2
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• pp.243-257
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• 2017

In this paper, we compare several methods to approximate option prices: Edgeworth expansion, A-type and C-type Gram-Charlier expansions, a method using normal inverse gaussian (NIG) distribution, and an asymptotic method using nonlinear regression. We used two different types of approximation. The first (called the RNM method) approximates the risk neutral probability density function of the log return of the underlying asset and computes the option price. The second (called the OPTIM method) finds the approximate option pricing formula and then estimates parameters to compute the option price. For simulation experiments, we generated underlying asset data from the Heston model and NIG model, a well-known stochastic volatility model and a well-known Levy model, respectively. We also applied the above approximating methods to the KOSPI200 call option price as a real data application. We then found that the OPTIM method shows better performance on average than the RNM method. Among the OPTIM, A-type Gram-Charlier expansion and the asymptotic method that uses nonlinear regression showed relatively better performance; in addition, among RNM, the method of using NIG distribution was relatively better than others.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.28 no.3
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• pp.235-257
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• 2012

Recently the role of ports has been changed to satisfy flexibly needs of demands in global economy. A new concept for ports is not just a place for international trade but an important nodal point in logistics chain. The changing environment like this trend creates a high degree of uncertainty and leaves port managers confused with the question how to respond effectively to dynamic market. The latest studies provide that the port must have a good hinterland to achieve competitive advantages in a logistics chain. Korean Government announced "The Master Development Plan for Port Logistics Parks in Korea" in 2006. This contains the plan of hinterland construction of Busan New Port to achieve the status of logistics hub in Asian market. Previous studies rely solely on traditional DCF(discounted cash flow) analysis for investment of hinterland. However DCF method does not include irreversibility, uncertainty and the choice of timing for investment project. This thesis introduces a ROPM(real options pricing model) which overcomes the limitations of traditional valuation methods. The option valuations in this study utilize the Black-Scholes model, the binomial model and the MonteCarlo simulation to value investment opportunity of a port hinterland. In this thesis, an attempt is made to modify the NPV criterion by incorporating the real options approach, and its application is demonstrated in a hinterland construction investment plan. This research has conducted an empirical analysis by calculating economic value of the investment for a hinterland of Busan New Port.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.35 no.4
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• pp.360-373
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• 2017

The BTO-a projects is the types, which has a demand risk among the type of PPP projects in Korea. When demand risk is realized, private investor encounters financial difficulties due to lower revenue than its expectation and the government may also have a problem in stable infrastructure operation. In this regards, the government has applied various risk sharing policies in response to demand risk. However, the amount of government's risk sharing is the government's contingent liabilities as a result of demand uncertainty, and it fails to be quantified by the conventional NPV method of expressing in the text of the concession agreement. The purpose of this study is to estimate the value of investment risk sharing by the government considering the demand risk in the profit sharing system (BTO-a) introduced in 2015 as one of the demand risk sharing policy. The investment risk sharing will take the form of options in finance. Private investors have the right to claim subsidies from the government when their revenue declines, while the government has the obligation to pay subsidies under certain conditions. In this study, we have established a methodology for estimating the value of investment risk sharing by using the Black - Scholes option pricing model and examined the appropriateness of the results through case studies. As a result of the analysis, the value of investment risk sharing is estimated to be 12 billion won, which is about 4% of the investment cost of the private investment. In other words, it can be seen that the government will invest 12 billion won in financial support by sharing the investment risk. The option value when assuming the traffic volume risk as a random variable from the case studies is derived as an average of 12.2 billion won and a standard deviation of 3.67 billion won. As a result of the cumulative distribution, the option value of the 90% probability interval will be determined within the range of 6.9 to 18.8 billion won. The method proposed in this study is expected to help government and private investors understand the better risk analysis and economic value of better for investment risk sharing under the uncertainty of future demand.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.13 no.2
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• pp.102-109
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• 2012

One of key success factors in PPI(Public Private Investment) is the structure of risk sharing between the public and the private, and the determination mechanism of fair return to private participants relative to the risk that private participants undertake. In Korea, two basic types of PPI exist. One is BTO and the other is BTL. In BTO, most risks are taken by the private whereas the opposite is the case in BTL. No intermediate form exists. As a result, BTO type projects had difficulty in attracting private participants because of the excessive risks. In this study, one intermediate form is studied where demand risk is shared between the public and the private. In the setting where the public authority takes all the project revenues and then pays ladder type payments to private participants depending upon the level of project revenues, appropriate level of fixed payments is endogenously derived using the real option pricing model. From the fixed payments, expected investment returns are calculated based upon a certain distributional assumption. The results of this study is expected to help introducing diverse forms of PPI in Korea.