• 제어로봇시스템학회지
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• 제11권4호
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• pp.33-44
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• 2005

• 한국지반공학회지:지반
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• 제39권5호
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• pp.46-49
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• 2023

• 한국해안·해양공학회논문집
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• 제25권5호
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• pp.267-275
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• 2013

HadGEM2-AO 기후모델의 기후변화 시나리오 자료와 파랑 모델을 이용하여 기후변화에 따른 북서태평양에서의 미래 파랑 기후를 전망하였다. 21세기말 북서태평양에서 연 평균 풍속이 현재보다 낮아질 것으로 전망됨에 따라 연 평균 유의파고도 낮게 전망되었다. 현재 기후에 비해서 21세기 말 연평균 유의파고는 RCP4.5 시나리오의 경우 2~7% 감소하고, RCP8.5의 경우 4~11% 정도 감소하는 것으로 나타났다. 극한파랑의 경우도 유의파고 및 풍속이 현재에 비해서 감소할 것으로 전망되었다. 계절별로 분석한 결과 겨울철의 극한파랑은 연 극한 파랑과 비슷하게 감소하는 경향을 보인 반면, 여름철의 경우 북서태평양에서는 현재보다 증가할 것으로 나타나 미래에는 태풍의 강도가 강화 될 것으로 전망된다.

• 한국농공학회논문집
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• 제57권4호
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• pp.73-84
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• 2015

An embankment raising project on 113 agricultural reservoirs in Korea was implemented in 2009 to increase water supply capacity for agricultural water and instream uses. This study evaluated the future water supply capacity of the Imgo reservoir at which the agricultural reservoir embankment raising project was completed, considering climate change scenarios. The height of the embankment of the reservoir was increased by 4.5 m, thereby increasing its total storage from 1,657.0 thousand to 3,179.5 thousand cubic meters. To simulate the reservoir water storage with respect to climate changes, two climate change scenarios, namely, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 (in which greenhouse gas reduction policy was executed and not executed, respectively) were applied with bias correction for reflecting the climate characteristics of the target basin. The analysis result of the agricultural water supply capacity in the future, after the agricultural reservoir embankment raising project is implemented, revealed that the water supply reliability and the agricultural water supply increased, regardless of the climate change scenarios. By simulating the reservoir water storage considering the instream flow post completion of the embankment raising project, it was found that water shortage in the reservoir in the future is not likely to occur when it is supplied with an appropriate instream flow. The range of instream flow tends to decrease over time under RCP 8.5, in which the greenhouse gas reduction policy was not executed, and the restoration of reservoir storage was lower in this scenario than in RCP 4.5, in which greenhouse gas reduction policy was executed.

• 대기
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• 제28권1호
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• pp.25-35
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• 2018

This study presents future potential sea level change over the seas surrounding Korea using Climate Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 9 model ensemble result from Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), downloaded from icdc.zmaw.de. At the end of 21st century, regional sea level changes are projected to rise 37.8, 48.1, 47.7, 65.0 cm under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5 scenario, respectively with the large uncertainty from about 40 to 60 cm. The results exhibit similar tendency with the global mean sea level rise (SLR) with small differences less than about 3 cm. For the East Sea, the Yellow Sea, and the southern sea of Korea, projected SLR in the Yellow Sea is smaller and SLR in the southern sea is larger than the other coastal seas. Differences among the seas are small within the range of 4 cm. Meanwhile, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO) data in 23 years shows that the mean rate of sea level changes around the Yellow Sea is high relative to the other coastal seas. For sea level change, contribution of ice and ocean related components are important, at local scale, Glacial Isostatic Adujstment also needs to be considered.

• 한국토양비료학회지
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• 제47권1호
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• pp.48-58
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• 2014

In order to evaluate water balance at upland according to RCP8.5 climate change scenario distributed by Korean Meteorological Administration (KMA), we simulated soil moisture using estimation model, called AFKAE0.5 for 66 sites from 2011 to 2020, and established the water balance maps. The amount of annual average precipitation by RCP8.5 scenario was highest in 2016 as recorded 2,062 mm and lowest in 2011 with 1,134 mm. As result of analysis for monthly precipitation and runoff, the amounts of precipitation and runoff have been especially intensive in July in 2014, 2016, 2019, and 2020. Overall, the area of Kyeongbuk and Gyeonggi was estimated more dried status of soil compared with precipitation. Except 2015 and 2020, soil water balance was recorded as negative value in other years which was calculated by subtracting output from input. The status of soil moisture was the most dry in 2020 among those in other years.

• 한국농림기상학회지
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• 제17권4호
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• pp.275-280
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• 2015

미래 기후조건에서 농업부문 가뭄양상을 전망하기 위해 우리나라 농업의 중심지인 전주지역을 대상으로 1951-2100 기간의 기후변화시나리오(RCP8.5) 일자료를 이용하여 토양의 물수지에 근거한 농업가뭄지수를 계산하였다. 계산결과는 과거(1951-1980), 현재(1981-2010), 그리고 3개의 미래 기후학적 평년기간(2011-2040, 2041-2070, 2071-2100)으로 분류하여 분석하였다. 그 결과 과거부터 현재까지 계절적으로 가장 부족한 이른봄의 토양수분은 점차 개선되어 금세기말이면 수분부족현상이 해소될 것으로 전망되며, 봄철 가뭄발생빈도 역시 지금보다 줄어들어 이른봄에는 가뭄이 거의 나타나지 않을 것이다. 반면 여름작물 생육기간에는 토양수분상태가 악화되며 가뭄발생빈도가 대체로 증가할 것으로 전망되었다.

• 한국농공학회논문집
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• 제58권1호
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• pp.39-51
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• 2016

Extreme floods occur more often recently as the frequency of extreme storm events increase due to the climate change. Because the extreme flood exceeding the design flood can cause large-scale disasters, it is important to predict and prepare for the future extreme flood. Flood flow is affected by two main factors; rainfall and land use. To predict the future extreme flood, both changes in rainfall due to the climate change and land use should be considered. The objective of this study was to simulate the future design flood in the Hwangguji river watershed, South Korea. The climate and land use change scenarios were derived from the representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. Conversion of land use and its effects (CLUE) and hydrologic modelling system (HEC-HMS) models were used to simulate the land use change and design flood, respectively. Design floods of 100-year and 200-year for 2040, 2070, and 2100 under the RCP4.5 and 8.5 scenarios were calculated and analyzed. The land use change simulation described that the urban area would increase, while forest would decrease from 2010 to 2100 for both the RCP4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. The overall changes in design floods from 2010 to 2100 were similar to those of probable rainfalls. However, the impact of land use change on design flood was negligible because the increase rate of probable rainfall was much larger than that of curve number (CN) and impervious area.

• 대기
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• 제23권4호
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• pp.377-387
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• 2013

Projections of changes in the low latitude atmospheric circulation under global warming are investigated using the results of the CMIP5 ensemble mean. For this purpose, 30-yr periods for the present day (1971~2000) and the end of the $21^{st}$ century (2071~2100) according to the RCP emission scenarios are compared. The wintertime subtropical jet is projected to strengthen on the upper side of the jet due to increase in meridional temperature gradient induced by warming in the tropical upper-troposphere and cooling in the stratosphere except for the RCP2.6. It is also found that a strengthening of the upper side of the wintertime subtropical jet in the RCP2.6 due to tropical upper-tropospheric warmings. Model-based projection shows a weakening of the mean intensity of the Hadley cell, an upward shift of cell, and poleward shift of the Hadley circulation for the winter cell in both hemispheres. A weakening of the Walker circulation, which is one of the most robust atmospheric responses to global warming, is also projected. These results are consistent with findings in the previous studies based on CMIP3 data sets. A weakening of the Walker circulation is accompanied with decrease (increase) in precipitation over the Indo-Pacific warm pool region (the equatorial central and east Pacific). In addition, model simulation shows a decrease in precipitation over subtropical regions where the descending branch of the winter Hadley cell in both hemispheres is strengthened.

• Industrial Engineering and Management Systems
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• 제14권3호
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• pp.221-235
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• 2015

Risk assessment is an important phase of risk management. It is the stage in which risk is measured thoroughly to achieve effective management. Some factors such as probability and impact of risk have been used in the literature related to construction projects. Because in high-rise projects safety issues are paramount, this study has tried to develop a quantifying technique that takes into account three factors: probability, impact and Safety Performance Index (SPI) where the SPI is defined as the capability of an appropriate response to reduce or limit the effect of an event after its occurrence with regard to safety pertaining to a project. Regarding risk-related literatures which cover an uncertain subject, the proposed method developed in this research is based on a fuzzy logic approach. This approach entails a questionnaire in which the subjectivity and vagueness of responses is dealt with by using triangular fuzzy numbers instead of linguistic terms. This method returns a Risk Critical Point (RCP) on a zoning chart that places risks under categories: critical, critical-probability, critical-impact, and non-critical. The high-rise project in the execution phase has been taken as a case study to confirm the applicability of the proposed method. The monitoring results showed that the RCP method has the inherent ability to be extended to subsequent applications in the phases of risk response and control.