• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.55 no.2
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• pp.121-133
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• 2022

The drought resulting from insufficient rainfall compared to the amount in an ordinary year can significantly impact a broad area at the same time. Another feature of this disaster is hard to recognize its onset and disappearance. Therefore, a reliable and fast way of predicting both the suffering area and the amount of water shortage from the upcoming drought is a key issue to develop a countermeasure of the disaster. However, the available drought scenarios are about 50 events that have been observed in the past. Due to the limited number of events, it is difficult to predict the water shortage in a case where the pattern of a natural disaster is different from the one in the past. To overcome the limitation, in this study, we applied the four RCP climate change scenarios to the water balance model and the annual amount of water shortage from 360 drought events was estimated. In the following chapter, the deep neural network model was trained with the SPEI values from the RCP scenarios and the amount of water shortage as the input and output, respectively. The trained model in each sub-basin enables us to easily and reliably predict the water shortage with the SPEI values in the past and the predicted meteorological conditions in the upcoming season. It can be helpful for decision-makers to respond to future droughts before their onset.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.43 no.2
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• pp.175-185
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• 2023

As drought risk increases due to climate change, various research works are underway around the world to respond to drought so as to minimize drought damage. In particular, in recent years, many studies are focused on analyzing regional patterns of drought in a comprehensive manner, however there is still insufficient to quantitatively identify drought-risk areas in a large river basin considering climate change in Korea. In this study, we calculated the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Modified Standardized Precipitation Index (M_SPI) as representative meteorological drought index, and performed spatial autocorrelation analysis to identify the drought hotspot region under climate change scenarios of Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5. The SPI was calculated by estimating parameters for each observation station within the study area, whereas the M_SPI was calculated by estimating parameters for the entire study area. It is more reasonable to use the M_SPI for assessing meteorological drought from an overall perspective within the study area. When the M_SPI was used, long-term droughts showed drought hotspot areas clearly larger than short-term droughts. In addition, the drought hotspot area moved from the center of the Nakdong River basin to the Seomjin River basin over time. Especially, the moving patterns of the short-term/long-term drought were apparent under the RCP 4.5, whereas the moving patterns of the long-term drought were distinct under the RCP 8.5 scenarios.

• JOURNAL OF ELECTRICAL WORLD
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• s.412
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• pp.66-67
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• 2011

우리나라는 원자력발전 3대 핵심기술인 원전계측제어시스템(MMIS), 원자로냉각재펌프(RCP), 원전설계핵심코드의 국산화를 추진하고 있다. 지난해 가장 먼저 MMIS가 국산화에 성공했으며, IAEA로부터 우수성을 평가받을 정도로 기술적 우위를 확보했다. 원전설계핵심코드 중 노심설계코드도 2010년에 개발을 완료하였다. RCP도 일부 구성품은 이미 국산화에 성공하였으며, 2012년에 순수 국산제품 개발이 완료될 예정이다.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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• v.17 no.2
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• pp.85-92
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• 2015

This study was conducted to analyze the relationship among climatic factors and radial growth of Pinus koraiensis in South Korea. To determine climate-growth relationships, cluster analysis was applied to group climatically similar surveyed regions, and dendroclimatological model was developed to predict radial growth for each climate group under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios for greenhouse gases. The dendroclimatological models were developed through climatic variables and standardized residual chronology for each climatic cluster of P. koraiensis. 2 to 4 climatic variables were used in the models ($R^2$ values between 0.35~0.49). For each of the climatic clusters for Pinus koraiensis, the growth simulations obtained from two RCP climate-change scenarios were used for growth prediction. The radial growth of the Clusters 2 and 3, which grow at high elevation, tend to increase. In contrast, Cluster 1, which grows at low elevation, tends to decrease with a large difference. Thus, the growth of Pinus koraiensis, which is a boreal species, could increase along with increasing temperature up to a certain point.

• Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
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• v.47 no.2
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• pp.208-225
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• 2012

The spatial characteristics of changes in extreme temperature indices for 2070-2099 relative to 1971-2000 in the Republic of Korea were investigated using daily maximum (Tmax) and minimum (Tmin) temperature data from a regional climate model (HadGEM3-RA) based on the IPCC RCP4.5/8.5 at 12.5km grid spacing and observations. Six temperature-based indices were selected to consider the frequency and intensity of extreme temperature events. For validation during the reference period (1971-2000), the simulated Tmax and Tmin distributions reasonably reproduce annual and seasonal characteristics not only for the relative probability but also the variation range. In the future (2070-2099), the occurrence of summer days (SD) and tropical nights (TR) is projected to be more frequent in the entire region while the occurrence of ice days (ID) and frost days (FD) is likely to decrease. The increase of averaged Tmax above 95th percentile (TX95) and Tmin below 5th percentile (TN5) is also projected. These changes are more pronounced under RCP8.5 scenario than RCP4.5. The changes in extreme temperature indices except for FD show significant correlations with altitude, and the changes in ID, TR, and TN5 also show significant correlations with latitude. The mountainous regions are projected to be more influenced by an increase of low extreme temperature than low altitude while the southern coast is likely to be more influenced by an increase of tropical nights.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.47 no.3
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• pp.257-267
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• 2014

The impact of the combination of changes in temperature and rainfall due to climate change on surface water resources is important in hydro-meteorological research. In this study, 4 hydro-meteorological (HM) models from the Rainfall Runoff Library in the Catchment Modeling Toolkit were used to model the impact of climate change on runoff in streams for 5 river basins in the Republic of Korea. Future projections from 2021 to 2040 (2030s), 2051 to 2070 (2060s) and 2081 to 2099 (2090s), were derived from 12 General Circulation Models (GCMs) and 3 representative concentration pathways (RCPs). GCM outputs were statistically adjusted and downscaled using Long-Ashton Research Station Weather Generator (LARS-WG) and the HM models were well calibrated and verified for the period from 1999 to 2009. The study showed that there is substantial spatial, temporal and HM uncertainty in the future runoff shown by the interquartile range, range and coefficient of variation. In summary, the aggregated runoff will increase in the future by 10~24%, 7~30% and 11~30% of the respective baseline runoff for the RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. This study presents a method to model future stream-flow taking into account the HM model and climate based uncertainty.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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• v.22 no.2
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• pp.47-56
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• 2020

Decline of pine forests happens in Korea due to various disturbances such as insect pests, forest fires and extreme climate, which may further continue with ongoing climate change. For conserving and reestablishing pine forests, understanding climate-induced future shifts of pine tree distribution is a critical concern. This study predicts future geographical distribution of Pinus densiflora, using Maximum Entropy Model (MaxEnt). Input data of the model are locations of pine tree stands and their environmental variables such as climate were prepared for the model inputs. Alternative future projections for P. densiflora distribution were conducted with RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 climate change scenarios. As results, the future distribution of P. densiflora steadily decreased under both scenarios. In the case of RCP 8.5, the areal reductions amounted to 11.1% and 18.7% in 2050s and 2070s, respectively. In 2070s, P. densiflora mainly remained in Kangwon and Gyeongsang Provinces. Changes in temperature seasonality and warming winter temperature contributed primarily for the decline of P. densiflora., in which altitude also exerted a critical role in determining its future distribution geographic vulnerability. The results of this study highlighted the temporal and spatial contexts of P. densiflora decline in Korea that provides useful ecological information for developing sound management practices of pine forests.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.21 no.1
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• pp.28-34
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• 2020

A reservoir is defined as an artificial facility that stores and controls water during floods and droughts. Korea has constructed and managed reservoirs all over the country to benefit farming communities. The importance of reservoirs has decreased gradually due to urbanization and the spread of tap water, but the importance of water is increasing because of the recent shortage of water and the resulting rise in the price of water resources. Therefore, this study suggests countermeasures through an analysis of the used threshold for agricultural reservoirs. To this end, the forecast of rainfall up to 2100 was first analyzed using flood estimates and RCP scenarios through rainwater data collection. The increase in the RCP 8.5 scenario, the largest increase in the probability rainfall, was calculated by adding it to the current probability rainfall, and it was predicted that the marginal height of Odong Dam would reach its limit in 2028. Therefore, as a countermeasure against this, the measures to secure effective water storage were suggested through measures, such as lowering the height of Yeosu and installing movable beams. Overall, it is expected that effective management of the reservoirs used for agriculture will be possible in the future.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.54 no.12
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• pp.4571-4584
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• 2022

The analysis of rapid flow transients in Reactor Coolant Pumps (RCP) is essential for a reactor safety study. An accurate and precise analysis of the RCP coastdown is necessary for the reactor design. The coastdown of RCP affects the coolant temperature and the colloidal crud in the primary coolant. A realistic and kinetic model has been used to investigate the behavior of activated colloidal crud in the primary coolant and steam generator that solves the pump speed analytically. The analytic solution of the non-dimensional flow rate has been determined by the energy ratio β. The kinetic energy of the coolant fluid and the kinetic energy stored in the rotating parts of a pump are two essential parameters in the form of β. Under normal operation, the pump's speed and moment of inertia are constant. However, in a coastdown situation, kinetic damping in the interval has been implemented. A dynamic model ACCP-SMART has been developed for System Integrated Modular and Advanced Reactor (SMART) to investigate the corrosion due to activated colloidal crud. The Fickian diffusion model has been implemented as the reference corrosion model for the constituent component of the primary loop of the SMART reactor. The activated colloidal crud activity in the primary coolant and steam generator of the SMART reactor has been studied for different equilibrium corrosion rates, linear increase in corrosion rate, and dynamic RCP coastdown situation energy ratio b. The coolant specific activity of SMART reactor equilibrium corrosion (4.0 mg s^-1) has been found 9.63×10^-3 µCi cm^-3, 3.53×10^-3 µC cm^-3, 2.39×10^-2 µC cm^-3, 8.10×10^-3 µC cm^-3, 6.77× 10^-3 µC cm^-3, 4.95×10^-4 µC cm^-3, 1.19×10^-3 µC cm^-3, and 7.87×10^-4 µC cm^-3 for ²⁴Na, ⁵⁴Mn, ⁵⁶Mn, ⁵⁹Fe, ⁵⁸Co, ⁶⁰Co, ⁹⁹Mo, and ⁵¹Cr which are 14.95%, 5.48%, 37.08%, 12.57%, 10.51%, 0.77%, 18.50%, and 0.12% respectively. For linear and exponential coastdown with a constant corrosion rate, the total coolant and steam generator activity approaches a higher saturation value than the normal values. The coolant and steam generator activity changes considerably with kinetic corrosion rate, equilibrium corrosion, growth of corrosion rate (ΔC/Δt), and RCP coastdown situations. The effect of the RCP coastdown on the specific activity of the steam generators is smeared by linearly rising corrosion rates, equilibrium corrosion, and rapid coasting down of the RCP. However, the time taken to reach the saturation activity is also influenced by the slope of corrosion rate, coastdown situation, equilibrium corrosion rate, and energy ratio β.

• Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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• v.54 no.6
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• pp.133-142
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• 2012

The objective of this study was to correct the bias of the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP)-based future precipitation data using a quantile mapping method. This method was adopted to correct extreme values because it was designed to adjust simulated data using probability distribution function. The Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution was used to fit distribution for precipitation data obtained from the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA). The resolutions of precipitation data was 12.5 km in space and 3-hour in time. As the results of bias correction over the past 30 years (1976~2005), the annual precipitation was increased 16.3 % overall. And the results for 90 years (divided into 2011~2040, 2041~2070, 2071~2100) were that the future annual precipitation were increased 8.8 %, 9.6 %, 11.3 % respectively. It also had stronger correction effects on high value than low value. It was concluded that a quantile mapping appeared a good method of correcting extreme value.