• Title/Summary/Keyword: rainfall index for frequency

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Identifying the Optimal Number of Homogeneous Regions for Regional Frequency Analysis Using Self-Organizing Map (자기조직화지도를 활용한 동일강수지역 최적군집수 분석)

  • Kim, Hyun Uk;Sohn, Chul;Han, Sang-Ok
    • Spatial Information Research
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    • v.20 no.6
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    • pp.13-21
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    • 2012
  • In this study, homogeneous regions for regional frequency analysis were identified using rainfall data from 61 observation points in Korea. The used data were gathered from 1980 to 2010. Self organizing map and K-means clustering based on Davies-Bouldin Index were used to make clusters showing similar rainfall patterns and to decide the optimum number of the homogeneous regions. The results from this analysis showed that the 61 observation points can be optimally grouped into 6 geographical clusters. Finally, the 61 observations points grouped into 6 clusters were mapped regionally using Thiessen polygon method.

Developing Extreme Drought Scenarios for Seoul based on the Long Term Precipitation Including Paleoclimatic Data (고기후 자료를 포함한 장기연속 강수자료에 의한 서울지역의 극한가뭄 시나리오 개발)

  • Jang, Ho-Won;Cho, Hyeong-Won;Kim, Tae-Woong;Lee, Joo-Heon
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.37 no.4
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    • pp.659-668
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    • 2017
  • In this study, long-term rainfall data of more than 300 years including the paleoclimatic rainfall data from Chuk Woo Kee (1777-1907), the modern observed rainfall data (1908-2015), and the climate change scenario (2016-2099), which were provided by KMA (Korea Meteorological Agency), was used to analyze the statistical characteristics of the extreme drought in the Seoul., Annual average rainfall showed an increasing trend over a entire period, and Wavelet transform analysis of SPI (Standardized Precipitation Index) which is meteorological drought index, showed 64 to 80 months (5-6 Year) of drought periods for Chuk Woo Kee and KMA data, 96 to 128 months (8 to 10 years) of drought period for climate change data. The dry spell analysis showed that the drought occurrence frequency in the ancient period was high, but frequency was gradually decreased in the modern and future periods. In addition, through the analysis of the drought magnitude, 1901 was the extreme drought year in Seoul, and 1899-1907 was the worst consecutive 9 years long term drought in Seoul.

An Evaluation of Extreme Precipitation based on Local Downpour using Empirical Simulation Technique (Empirical Simulation Technique 기법을 이용한 집중호우의 극한강우 평가)

  • Oh, Tae-Suk;Moon, Young-Il
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.29 no.2B
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    • pp.141-153
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    • 2009
  • The occurrence causes of the extreme rainfall to happen in Korea can be distinguished with the typhoons and local downpours. The typhoon events attacked irregularly to induce the heavy rainfall, and the local downpour events mean a seasonal rain front and a local rainfall. Almost every year, the typhoons and local downpours that induced a heavy precipitation be generated extreme disasters like a flooding. Consequently, in this research, There were distinguished the causes of heavy rainfall events with the typhoons and the local downpours at Korea. Also, probability precipitation was computed according to the causes of the local downpour events. An evaluation of local downpours can be used for analysis of heavy rainfall event in short period like a flash flood. The methods of calculation of probability precipitation used the parametric frequency analysis and the Empirical Simulation Technique (EST). The correlation analysis was computed between annual maximum precipitation by local downpour events and sea surface temperature, moisture index for composition of input vectors. At the results of correlation analysis, there were revealed that the relations closely between annual maximum precipitation and sea surface temperature. Also, probability precipitation using EST are bigger than probability precipitation of frequency analysis on west-middle areas in Korea. Therefore, region of west-middle in Korea should prepare the extreme precipitation by local downpour events.

Drought Analyses of 1994 Using Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI를 이용한 1994년 가뭄분석)

  • 김상민;박승우;김현준
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers Conference
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    • 1998.10a
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    • pp.92-98
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    • 1998
  • Among several indices that have been proposed and adopted in different disciplines of sciences, standardized precipitation index, SPI by McKee et al. (1993) was applied to evaluate drought severity for historical rainfall records. Monthly SPI in Seoul station was reviewed in this study, in an effort to characterize the drought intensities during 1994. The SPI drought frequency decreases inversely with monthly time scales of different spans, while the drought duration increases. March, 1994 was found to be the most severe for the three month period, and was recognized as the beginning month of the historical drought spans. Drought intensities became less severe during May and June. SPI becomes greater from July to September particularly in eastern parts of the country.

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Evaluation of Probability Precipitation using Climatic Indices in Korea (기상인자를 이용한 우리나라의 확률강수량 평가)

  • Oh, Tae-Suk;Moon, Young-Il
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.42 no.9
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    • pp.681-690
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    • 2009
  • In this research, design precipitation was calculated by reflecting the climatic indices and its uncertainty assessment was evaluated. Climatic indices used the sea surface temperature and moisture index which observed globally. The correlation coefficients were calculated between the annual maximum precipitation and the climatic indices. and then climatic indices which have the larger correlation coefficient were selected. Therefore, the regression relationship was established by a locally weighted polynomial regression. Next, climatic indices were generated by montecarlo simulation using kernel function. Finally, the design rainfall was calculated by the locally weighted polynomial regression using generated climatic indices. At the result, the comparison of design rainfall between the reflection of the climatic indices and the frequency analysis did not indicate a significant difference. Also, this result can be used as basic data for calculation of probability precipitation to reflect climate change.

The Synoptic Characteristics of Heavy Rain in South Korea (한반도 집중호우의 종관적 특성)

  • Jeong, Goan-Young;Ryu, Chan-Su
    • Journal of Integrative Natural Science
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    • v.1 no.2
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    • pp.89-114
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    • 2008
  • Interrelationship between heavy rainfalls and related with low-level jets(LLJ) is analyzed by using fifty cases of heavy rainfall events occurred over the Korean peninsula from 1992 to 2001. Those cases are classified with four synoptical features. There are 32% chances that the low pressure exist in heavy rainfall over than 150 mm per day case by case. Secondly Changma front and front zone account for 28% of all cases. The ratio of marine tropical boundary type and trough type record 22% and 18% respectively. The moist and warm south-westerly winds associated with low-level jets have been induced convective instability and baroclinic instability. Therefore, heavy rainfall due to the approach of a low pressure occurred at September and before Changma. During the period of Changma, this type has been happened heavy rainfall when low pressure and stationary front has vibrated south and north. Changma type has longer the duration time of precipitation than other types. Third type, located with marine Tropical boundary, have mainly rained in August and September. The last trough case locally downpoured in short time with developing cell. The occurrence low-level jets related to heavy rainfall has increased over 12.5 m/s wind speed. The result is that 43 heavy rainfalls out of 50 cases reach peak at the time of maximum precipitation intensity. Also, the variation of wet number and K-index corresponded with the variation of wind speed. It is found that the number of frequency of low-level jets with southwestward direction has been increased and these jets are mainly passed from the southwest toward to the northeast of the Korean peninsula in that time.

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Regional frequency analysis for stationary and nonstationary hydrological data (정상성 및 비정상성 수문자료의 지역빈도해석)

  • Heo, Jun-Haenga;Kim, Hanbeen
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.52 no.10
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    • pp.657-669
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    • 2019
  • To estimate accurate design quantiles considering statistical characteristics of hydrological data is one of the most important procedures in the design of hydraulic structures. While at-site frequency analysis estimates design quantile using observed data at a site of interest, regional frequency analysis (RFA) utilizes a number of sites included in a hydrologically homogeneous region. Therefore, RFA could provide a more accurate design quantile at ungauged site or sites with short observation period. In this review article, RFA is classified into stationary RFA and nonstationary RFA depending on the characteristic of hydrological data, and the basic concept, procedure, and application of each technique are explained in detail focused on the index flood method. Additionally, a review of the state of the art for RFA procedure is presented. This paper is finalized by describing the stationary regional rainfall frequency analysis over South Korea contained in the amendment of "Standard guidelines for design flood estimation" and various future study topics related to nonstationary RFA.

A Study on the Evaluation of Agricultural Drought Index (농업한발지수 설정에 관한 연구)

  • 안병기;김태철;정도웅
    • Magazine of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.30 no.1
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    • pp.31-37
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    • 1988
  • This study, based on the monthly rainfall data, was carried out to determine the agricultural drought index which enables to describe the regional and seasonal drought characteristics of rice cropping system in Korea. The results obtained were summarized as follows ; 1.A new agricultural drought index (ADI) was evaluated seasonally according to the product of drought intensity and duration. This ADI is proposed as standard design criterion for irrigation planning. 2.The relationship between agricultural drought index and return periods was figured out. These diagrams could be used to estimate the seasonal drought severity of a certain year and to select design year corresponding to the specific drought frequency. 3.The regional drought characteristics were classified and those are useful to determine proper rice varieties and planting time and make drought counterplans. 4.Spring drought occurred once in 3 or 4 years and in a regional respect, rather frequently occurred in Seoul and Daegu areas than in Busan, Daejeon, Kwangju and Chuncheon areas. Summer drought occurred once in 5 years in Daegu and Busan areas and once in 7 or 8 years in other areas. 5.Sequential drought which gave severe drought damage of rice production occurred once in 20 years in Daegu area and in 10 years in Kwangju area.

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Watershed Scale Drought Assessment using Soil Moisture Index (토양수분지수를 이용한 유역단위 가뭄 평가)

  • Kim, Ok-Kyoung;Choi, Jin-Yong;Jang, Min-Won;Yoo, Seung-Hwan;Nam, Won-Ho;Lee, Joo-Heon;Noh, Jae-Kyoung
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.48 no.6
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    • pp.3-13
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    • 2006
  • Although the drought impacts are comparably not catastrophic, the results from the drought are fatal in various social and economical aspects. Different from other natural hazards including floods, drought advances slowly and spreads widely, so that the preparedness is quite important and effective to mitigate the impacts from drought. Soil moisture depletion directly resulted from rainfall shortage is highly related with drought, especially for crops and vegetations, therefore a drought can be evaluated using soil moisture conditions. In this study, SMI (Soil Moisture Index) was developed to measure a drought condition using soil moisture model and frequency analysis for return periods. Runs theory was applied to quantify the soil moisture depletions for the drought condition in terms of severity, magnitude and duration. In 1994, 1995, 2000, and 2001, Korea had experienced several severe droughts, so the SMI developed was applied to evaluate applicability in the mid-range hydrologic unit watershed scale. From the results, SMI demonstrated the drought conditions with a quite sensitive manner and can be used as an indicator to measure a drought condition.

Regional Rainfall Frequency Analysis by Multivariate Techniques (다변량 분석 기법을 활용한 강우 지역빈도해석)

  • Nam, Woo-Sung;Kim, Tae-Soon;Shin, Ju-Young;Heo, Jun-Haeng
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.41 no.5
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    • pp.517-525
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    • 2008
  • Regional rainfall quantile depends on the identification of hydrologically homogeneous regions. Various variables relevant to precipitation can be used to form regions. Since the type and number of variables may lead to improve the efficiency of partitioning, it is important to select those precipitation related variables, which represent most of the information from all candidate variables. Multivariate analysis techniques can be used for this purpose. Procrustes analysis which can decrease the dimension of variables based on their correlations, are applied in this study. 42 rainfall related variables are decreased into 21 ones by Procrustes analysis. Factor analysis is applied to those selected variables and then 5 factors are extracted. Fuzzy-c means technique classifies 68 stations into 6 regions. As a result, the GEV distributions are fitted to 6 regions while the lognormal and generalized logistic distributions are fitted to 5 regions. For the comparison purpose with previous results, rainfall quantiles based on generalized logistic distribution are estimated by at-site frequency analysis, index flood method, and regional shape estimation method.