• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.47 no.2
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• pp.204-211
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• 2015

Probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) has had a significant role in quantitative decision-making by finding design and operational vulnerabilities and evaluating cost-benefit in improving such weak points. In particular, it has been widely used as the core methodology for risk-informed applications (RIAs). Even though the nature of PSA seeks realistic results, there are still "conservative" aspects. One of the sources for the conservatism is the assumptions of safety analysis and the estimation of failure frequency. Surveillance, diagnosis, and prognosis (SDP), utilizing massive databases and information technology, is worth highlighting in terms of its capability for alleviating the conservatism in conventional PSA. This article provides enabling techniques to solidify a method to provide time- and condition-dependent risks by integrating a conventional PSA model with condition monitoring and prognostics techniques. We will discuss how to integrate the results with frequency of initiating events (IEs) and probability of basic events (BEs). Two illustrative examples will be introduced: (1) how the failure probability of a passive system can be evaluated under different plant conditions and (2) how the IE frequency for a steam generator tube rupture (SGTR) can be updated in terms of operating time. We expect that the proposed model can take a role of annunciator to show the variation of core damage frequency (CDF) depending on operational conditions.

• Journal of Environmental Health Sciences
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• v.40 no.5
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• pp.355-366
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• 2014

Objectives: This study seeks to evaluate the vulnerability assessment of the human health sector for $PM_{10}$, which is reflected in the regional characteristics and related disease mortality rates for $PM_{10}$ in Busan over the period of 2006-2010. Methods: According to the vulnerability concept suggested by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), vulnerability to $PM_{10}$ is comprised of the categories of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. The indexes of the exposure and sensitivity categories indicate positive effects, while the adaptive capacity index indicates a negative effect on vulnerability to $PM_{10}$. Variables of each category were standardized by the rescaling method, and each regional relative vulnerability was computed through the vulnerability index calculation formula. Results: The regions with a high exposure index are Jung-Gu (transportation region) and Saha-Gu (industrial region). Major factors determining the exposure index are the $PM_{10}$ concentration, days of $PM_{10}{\geq}50$, ${\mu}g/m^3$, and $PM_{10}$ emissions. The regions that show a high sensitivity index are urban and rural regions; these commonly have a high mortality rate for related disease and vulnerable populations. The regions that have a high adaptive capacity index are Jung-Gu, Gangseo-Gu, and Busanjin-Gu, all of which have a high level of economic/welfare/health care factors. The high-vulnerability synthesis of the exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity indexes show that Dong-Gu and Seo-Gu have a risk for $PM_{10}$ potential effects and a low adaptive capacity. Conclusions: This study presents the vulnerability index to $PM_{10}$ through a relative comparison using quantitative evaluation to draw regional priorities. Therefore, it provides basic data to reflect environmental health influences in favor of an adaptive policy limiting damage to human health caused by vulnerability to $PM_{10}$.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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• v.33 no.6
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• pp.136-143
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• 2018

In this study, we conducted a pilot study on the multiple spurious operations (MSO) analysis in the fire probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) of domestic nuclear power plant (NPP) to identify the degree of influence of the operator actions used in the MSO mitigation strategies. The MSO scenario of the domestic reference NPP selected for this study is refueling water tank (RWT) drain down event. It could be caused by spurious operations of the containment spray system (CSS) of the reference NPP. The RWT drain down event can be stopped by the main control room (MCR) operator actions for stopping the operation of CSS pump or closing the CSS motor operated valve if the containment spray actuation signal (CSAS) is spuriously actuated. Outside the MCR, it can be stopped by operator actions for closing the CSS manual valves or motor operated valve or stopping the operation of CSS pump. The quantification result of a fire PSA model that takes into account all recovery actions for the RWT drain down event lead to risk reduction by about 95%, compared with quantification result of fire PSA model without considering them. Among the various operator actions, the recovery action for the spurious CSAS operations and the operator action for the manual valve are identified as the most important operator actions. This study quantitatively showed the extent to which the operator actions used as MSO countermeasures have affected the fire PSA quantification results. In addition, we can see the rank of importance among the operator recovery actions in quantitative terms.

• Imaging Science in Dentistry
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• v.51 no.4
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• pp.363-372
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• 2021

Purpose: This systematic review and meta-analysis assessed the diagnostic accuracy of imaging examinations for the detection of peri-implant bone defects and compared the diagnostic accuracy between titanium (Ti) and zirconium dioxide (ZrO₂) implants. Materials and Methods: Six online databases were searched, and studies were selected based on eligibility criteria. The studies included in the systematic review underwent bias and applicability assessment using the Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies 2 (QUADAS-2) tool and a random-effect meta-analysis. Summary receiver operating characteristic (sROC) curves were constructed to compare the effect of methodological differences in relation to the variables of each group. Results: The search strategy yielded 719 articles. Titles and abstracts were read and 61 studies were selected for full-text reading. Among them, 24 studies were included in this systematic review. Most included studies had a low risk of bias (QUADAS-2). Cone-beam computed tomography (CBCT) presented sufficient data for quantitative analysis in ZrO₂ and Ti implants. The meta-analysis revealed high levels of inconsistency in the latter group. Regarding sROC curves, the area under the curve (AUC) was larger for the overall Ti group (AUC=0.79) than for the overall ZrO₂ group (AUC=0.69), but without a statistically significant difference between them. In Ti implants, the AUCs for dehiscence defects(0.73) and fenestration defects(0.87) showed a statistically significant difference. Conclusion: The diagnostic accuracy of CBCT imaging in the assessment of peri-implant bone defects was similar between Ti and ZrO₂ implants, and fenestration was more accurately diagnosed than dehiscence in Ti implants.

• Journal of Korean Society of Environmental Engineers
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• v.33 no.7
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• pp.544-551
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• 2011

The objective of this study was to analyze VIRULO model, a probabilistic quantitative model, which had been developed by US Environmental Protection Agency. The model could assess the viral attenuation capacity of soil as hydrogeologic barrier using Monte Carlo simulation. The governing equations used in the model were composed of unsaturated flow equations and viral transport equations. Among the model parameters, those related to water flow for 11 soil types were from UNDODA data, and those related to 5 virus species were from the literatures. The model compared the attenuation factor with threshold of attenuation to determine the probability of failure and presented the exceedances and Monte Carlo runs as output. The analysis indicated that among 11 USDA soil types, the viral attenuation capacity of loamy sand and sand were far lower than those of clay and silt soils. Also, there were differences in the attenuation in soil among 5 viruses with poliovirus showing the highest attenuation. The viral attenuation capacity of soil decreased sharply with increasing soil water content and increased nonlinearly with increasing soil barrier length. This study indicates that VIRULO model could be considered as a useful screening tool for viral risk assessment in subsurface environment.

• Journal of the Korea Institute of Building Construction
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• v.20 no.2
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• pp.137-145
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• 2020

The recent bridge construction projects demand thorough and systematic safety and risk management, due to the increase of risk factors following the introduction of new and complex construction methods and technologies. Among many types of damages that can occur in bridge construction projects, the damages to third parties who are not directly related to the existing property of the contractor construction project can also bring about critical loss in the project in order to compensate the damages. Therefore, risks that could be caused by the loss occurred to indemnify the third party damages should be clearly analyzed, although there are not subsequent amount of studies focusing on the issue. Based on the past record of insurance payment from domestic insurance companies for bridge construction projects, this study aimed to analyze the risk factors of bridge construction for loss caused to compensate the third-party damages happened in actual bridge construction projects and to develop a quantified and numerical predictive loss model. In order to develop the model, the loss ratio was selected as the dependent variable; and among many analyzed independent variables, the superstructure, foundation, flood, and ranking of contractors were the four significant risk factor variables that affect the loss ratio. The results produced can be used as an essential guidance for balanced risk assessment, supplementing the existing analysis on material losses in bridge construction projects by taking into account the third-party damage and losses.

• Korean Journal of Microbiology
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• v.49 no.1
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• pp.51-57
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• 2013

As facilities and equipments for learning activities in college campuses are handled by mass public, their contact surfaces may function as major routes of cross-infection of microbial pathogens. However, unlike items in cafeteria which is the typical target for campus hygiene, those surfaces are not under regular surveillance or sanitary maintenance. In this study, I made a quantitative comparison of the risk of being exposed to microbial pathogens from use of learning facilities such as classrooms and library to the risk from use of cafeteria, for about 1,500 students in a college. Regarding total coliforms as surrogate model of bacterial pathogens, exposure rates were estimated for each item in learning facilities and cafeterias by devising deterministic exposure algorithms based on bacterial abundance, contract rates and transfer rates. The exposure rate in cafeterias was 1.0 CFU/day while learning facilities imposed the rate of 0.5 CFU/day, which reaches a half of the exposure rate in cafeterias. However, 70% of students were exposed more in learning facilities than cafeteria because individuals had different frequencies in using cafeteria. Based on the results, some human-contact surfaces of learning facilities, including elevator buttons, may require regular sanitary maintenance. An efficient sanitary maintenance considering seasonality in diversity of pathogens involved with cross-infections is suggested besides improvement of personal hygiene among students.

• Journal of Energy Engineering
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• v.21 no.4
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• pp.339-345
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• 2012

RMembrane LNG storage tanks have been recently investigated to replace full-containment LNG storage tanks because of safety and cost aspects. Quantitative Risk Analysis (QRA) and Finite Element Method (FEM) were used to evaluate safety of membrane LNG storage tanks. In this study, structural safety evaluation results via FEM analysis showed that both membrane type and full-containment type cryogenic LNG storage tanks with 140,000 $m^3$ capacity were equivalently safe in terms of strength safety and leakage safety of a storage tank system. Also, Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) was used to improve the safety of membrane LNG storage tanks and membrane LNG tanks were modified by adding three safety equipments: impact absorber structure for the low part of the membrane, the secondary barrier to diminish the thermal stress of the corner part of the outer tank, and a pump catcher in case of falling of a pump. Consequently, the safety of the modified membrane LNG storage tanks were proved to be equivalent to that of full-containment LNG storage tanks.

• Korean Journal of Food Science and Technology
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• v.53 no.5
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• pp.657-668
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• 2021

We prepared the growth and survival models of enterohemorrhagic Escherichia coli (EHEC) and Campylobacter jejuni in milk as a function of temperature and assessed the microbiological risks associated with the consumption of whole milk. EHEC and C. jejuni were not detected in whole milk (n=195) in the retail market. The minimum growth temperature of EHEC in milk was 7℃. The lag time of EHEC in whole milk was longer than that in skim milk. The survival ability of C. jejuni in milk was better at 4℃ than at 10℃. Lower delta values were observed in whole milk than in skim milk, indicating that C. jejuni survived better in skim milk. The probability of foodborne illness from whole milk consumption was 5.70×10^-5 for EHEC and 9.86×10^-9 for C. jejuni. Sensitivity analysis results show that the market temperature of EHEC and the dose-response model of C. jejuni are correlated with the probability of foodborne illness.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.55 no.9
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• pp.657-668
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• 2022

With the occurrence of localized heavy rain while river flow has increased, both flow and rainfall cause riverside flood damages. As the degree of damage varies according to the level of social and economic impact, it is required to secure sufficient forecast lead time for flood response in areas with high population and asset density. In this study, the author established a flood risk matrix using ensemble rainfall runoff modeling and evaluated its applicability in order to increase the damage reduction effect by securing the time required for flood response. The flood risk matrix constructs the flood damage impact level (X-axis) using flood damage data and predicts the likelihood of flood occurrence (Y-axis) according to the result of ensemble rainfall runoff modeling using LENS rainfall data and as well as probabilistic forecasting. Therefore, the author introduced a method for determining the impact level of flood damage using historical flood damage data and quantitative flood damage assessment methods. It was compared with the existing flood warning data and the damage situation at the flood warning points in the Taehwa River Basin and the Hyeongsan River Basin in the Nakdong River Region. As a result, the analysis showed that it was possible to predict the time and degree of flood risk from up to three days in advance. Hence, it will be helpful for damage reduction activities by securing the lead time for flood response.