• ETRI Journal
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• v.27 no.6
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• pp.747-758
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• 2005

The problem of selection among competing models has been a fundamental issue in statistical data analysis. Good fits to data can be misleading since they can result from properties of the model that have nothing to do with it being a close approximation to the source distribution of interest (for example, overfitting). In this study we focus on the preference among models from a family of polynomial regressors. Three decades of research has spawned a number of plausible techniques for the selection of models, namely, Akaike's Finite Prediction Error (FPE) and Information Criterion (AIC), Schwartz's criterion (SCH), Generalized Cross Validation (GCV), Wallace's Minimum Message Length (MML), Minimum Description Length (MDL), and Vapnik's Structural Risk Minimization (SRM). The fundamental similarity between all these principles is their attempt to define an appropriate balance between the complexity of models and their ability to explain the data. This paper presents an empirical study of the above principles in the context of model selection, where the models under consideration are univariate polynomials. The paper includes a detailed empirical evaluation of the model selection methods on six target functions, with varying sample sizes and added Gaussian noise. The results from the study appear to provide strong evidence in support of the MML- and SRM- based methods over the other standard approaches (FPE, AIC, SCH and GCV).

• Journal of the Institute of Electronics Engineers of Korea SP
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• v.41 no.2
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• pp.73-78
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• 2004

By modeling the block matching algorithm as a function of the correlation of image blocks, we derive search patterns for fast block matching motion estimation. The proposed approach provides an analytical support lot the diamond-shape search pattern, which is widely used in fast block matching algorithms. We also propose a new fast motion estimation algorithm using adaptive search patterns and statistical properties of the object displacement. In order to select an appropriate search pattern, we exploit the relationship between the motion vector and the block differences. By changing the search pattern adaptively, we improve motion prediction accuracy while reducing required computational complexity compared to other fast block matching algorithms.

• Journal of Environmental Science International
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• v.8 no.6
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• pp.661-667
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• 1999

Estimating dimensions of attractors are the most basic tools to analyze properties of chaotical dynamic systems. In this paper, we estimate correlation dimensions of meteorological variables, such as wind speed (v) and temperature (T) observed in Kimhae International Airport when the land-sea breeze circulation is appeared and find low non-integer values that reflect the deterministic chaos characterizing the dynamics. We compare the results with the correlation dimensions of 2-dimensional model that is calculated by finite element method. Though the correlation dimensions of the calculated wind speed ( v) are less than those of the observed wind speed ( v), we can suggest that the land-sea breeze circulation has not a unique mechanism. The land-sea breeze phenomenon is a complicated dynamics, which is constructed with various scale motions of atmosphere. In further research, we hope to find more accurate dynamics of land-sea breeze through wide observations and using of more sophisticated prediction models.

• Journal of Environmental Science International
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• v.26 no.10
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• pp.1135-1146
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• 2017

At riverbank filtration sites, groundwater levels of alluvial aquifers near rivers are sensitive to variation in river discharge and pumping quantities. In this study, the groundwater level fluctuation, pumping quantity, and streamflow rate at the site of a riverbank filtration plant, which produces drinking water, in the lower Nakdong River basin, South Korea were interrelated. The relationship between drawdown ratio and river discharge was very strong with a correlation coefficient of 0.96, showing a greater drawdown ratio in the wet season than in the dry season. Autocorrelation and cross-correlation were carried out to characterize groundwater level fluctuation. Autoregressive model analysis of groundwater water level fluctuation led to efficient estimation and prediction of pumping for riverbank filtration in relation to river discharge rates, using simple inputs of river discharge and pumping data, without the need for numerical models that require data regarding several aquifer properties and hydrologic parameters.

• The Bulletin of The Korean Astronomical Society
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• v.41 no.1
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• pp.45.3-46
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• 2016

Solar activity shows a self-similarity as it has many periods of activity cycle in the time series of long-term observation, such as 13.5, 51, 150, 300 days, and 11, 88 years and so on. Since fractal dimension is a quantitative parameter for this kind of an irregular time series, we applied this method to long-term observations including sunspot number, total solar irradiance, and 3.75 GHz solar radio flux to predict the start and maximum times as well as expected maximum sunspot number for the next solar cycle. As a result, we found that the radio flux data tend to have lower fractal dimensions than the sunspot number data, which means that the radio emission from the sun is more regular than the solar activity expressed by sunspot number. Based on the relation between radio flux of 3.75 GHz and sunspot number, we could calculate the expected maximum sunspot number of solar cycle 24 as 156, while the observed value is 146. For the maximum time, estimated mean values from 7 different observations are January 2013 and this is quite different to observed value of February 2014. We speculate this is from extraordinary extended properties of solar cycle 24. As the cycle length of solar cycle 24, 10.1 to 12.8 years are expected, and the mean value is 11.0. This implies that the next solar cycle will be started at December 2019.

• The Bulletin of The Korean Astronomical Society
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• v.41 no.1
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• pp.46.1-46.1
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• 2016

The formation process of a current sheet is important for solar flare from a viewpoint of a space weather prediction. We therefore derive the temporal development of the spatial and statistical distribution of electric current density distributed in a flare-producing active region to describe the formation of a current sheet. We derive time sequence distribution of electric current density by applying a nonlinear force-free approximation reconstruction to Active Region 12158 that produces an X1.6-class flare. The time sequence maps of photospheric vector magnetic field used for reconstruction are captured by a Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) onboard Solar Dynamic Observatory (SDO) on 10th September, 2014. The spatial distribution of electric current density in NLFFF model well reproduce observed sigmoidal structure at the preflare phase, although a layer of high current density shrinks at the postflare phase. A double power-law profile of electric current density is found in statistical analysis. This may be expected to use an indicator of the occurrence of a solar flare.

• Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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• v.21 no.7
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• pp.73-80
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• 2005

There are several major practical consequences of stress-dependent properties of unbound pavement foundations. Among those are the stress-dependent modulus and Poisson's ratio's that may change, the compressive stresses that are generated in materials under load, the stiffening and strengthening effect of repeated loading to progressively increase the unbound pavement materials resistance to permanent deformation. In order to study these, the algorithm for predicting deformations on conventional flexible pavements are proposed and the stress-dependent effects on layer deformation are presented in this paper by the developed stress-dependent finite element analysis program with the selected models.

• Proceedings of the Korean Geotechical Society Conference
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• 2009.09a
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• pp.482-491
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• 2009

In this study, the mechanical behavior of very soft ground that is reinforced on the surface has been investigated with the aid of a series of numerical analyses. Key material properties of each dredged soft ground, reinforcement and backfill sand mat have been parametrically estimated in the numerical analysis. Along with the result of the study previously performed, a series of in-situ loading conditions and settlement exerted by surface reinforcing operation by construction vehicles has been numerically simulated. These result have been used to evaluate the limit bearing capacity for the unreinforced and reinforced soft ground. Also, the results of the numerical analysis obtained in this research were compared with Yamanouchi's empirical correlation for the limit bearing capacity. Engineering charts listed in this paper for estimating the limit bearing capacity provide field engineers with preliminary design tool for surface reinforcement of very soft ground.

• The Journal of Information Technology
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• v.7 no.3
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• pp.113-118
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• 2004

Recently, diagnosis techniques have been investigated to detect a partial discharge associated with a dielectric material defect in a high voltage electrical apparatus. However, the properties of detection technique of PD aren't completely understood because the physical process of PD. Therefore, this paper analyzes the process on Surface Discharge of Polymer Insulator using Wavelet transform. Wavelet transform provides a direct quantitative measure of spectral content in the time frequency domain. As it is important to develop a non-contact method for detecting the Contamination Degree, this research analyzes the electromagnetic waves emitted from PD using Wavelet transform. This result experimentally shows the process of PD as a two-dimensional distribution in the time-frequency domain. The method is shown to be useful for detecting prediction of contamination degree.

• Computers and Concrete
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• v.15 no.1
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• pp.89-101
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• 2015

In this paper, Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) and Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) models were discussed to determine the compressive strength of clinker mortars cured for 1, 2, 7 and 28 days. In the experimental stage, 1288 mortar samples were produced from 322 different clinker specimens and compressive strength tests were performed on these samples. Chemical properties of the clinker samples were also determined. In the modeling stage, these experimental results were used to construct the models. In the models tricalcium silicate ($C_3S$), dicalcium silicate ($C_2S$), tricalcium aluminate ($C_3A$), tetracalcium alumina ferrite ($C_4AF$), blaine values, specific gravity and age of samples were used as inputs and the compressive strength of clinker samples was used as output. The approximate reasoning ability of the models compared using some statistical parameters. As a result, ANN has shown satisfying relation with experimental results and suggests an alternative approach to evaluate compressive strength estimation of clinker mortars using related inputs. Furthermore MLR model showed a poor ability to predict.