• Title/Summary/Keyword: promising future technologies

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A study on Technology Push-based Future Weapon System and Core Technology Derivation Methodology (빅데이터분석기반의 기술주도형 미래 국방무기체계 및 핵심기술 도출 방법연구)

  • Kang, Hyunkyu;Park, Yongjun;Park, Jaehun
    • Journal of Korean Society for Quality Management
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    • v.46 no.2
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    • pp.225-242
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    • 2018
  • Purpose: Recent trends have shown that the usage of big data analysis is becoming the core of identifying promising future technologies and emerging technologies. Accordingly, applying these trends by analyzing defense related data in such sources as journals, articles, and news will provide crucial clues in predicting and identifying core future technologies that can be used to develop creative and unprecedented future weapon systems that could change the warfare. Methods: To identify technology fields that are closely related to the 4th industrial revolution and recent technology development trends, environmental analysis, text mining, and military applicability survey have been included in the process. After the identification of core technologies that are militarily applicable, future weapon systems based on these technologies as well as their operation concepts are suggested. Results: Through the study, 73 important trends, from which 11 mega trends are derived, are identified. These mega trends can be expressed by 13 promising technology fields. From these technology fields, 248 promising future technologies are identified. Afterwards, further assessment is performed, which leads to the selection of 63 core technologies from the pool. These are named as "future defense technologies" which then become the bases for 40 future weapons systems that the military can use. Conclusion: Predicting future technologies using text mining analysis have been attempted by various organizations across the globe, especially in the fields related to the 4th industrial revolution. However, the application of it in the field of defense industry is unprecedented. Therefore, this study is meaningful in that it not only enables the military personnel to see promising future technologies that can be utilized for future weapon system development, but helps one to predict the future defense technologies using the method introduced in the paper.

Trends in Technology Roadmap and Exploration of Emerging Technologies for Leading R&D Planning (선도적 R&D 기획을 위한 기술로드맵 및 미래 유망기술 탐색 동향)

  • Y.H. Choi;K.D. Kim;H.S. Chung
    • Electronics and Telecommunications Trends
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    • v.39 no.2
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    • pp.93-102
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    • 2024
  • As the scale of research and development (R&D) increases, countries and companies are consistently establishing R&D directions to meet strategic goals and market demands as well as roadmaps to increase efficiency through concentration and selection. However, establishing an effective roadmap and discovering promising technologies are challenging under the current numerous technological possibilities and uncertainties. The importance of discovering promising technologies to secure future technological competitiveness is recognized worldwide, and Europe, the United States, and Japan are establishing processes to identify promising future technologies and support related R&D. Methods for discovering promising future technologies can be classified into future social needs analysis, forecasting, surveys, use of expert opinions, and data analysis. We describe the types and limitations of technology roadmaps and investigate the status of domestic and foreign organizations using weak signal search through quantitative data analysis.

A Study on the Promising Future Biotechnology (바이오 미래유망 연구분야 도출에 관한 연구)

  • Kam, Ju-Sik;Kim, Moo-Woong;Par, Sang-Dai;Hyun, Byung-Hwan
    • Journal of Korea Technology Innovation Society
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    • v.15 no.2
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    • pp.345-368
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    • 2012
  • As science and technology are the core engines of economic and social affairs, it is becoming increasingly necessary to explore new promising technologies in order to secure competitiveness in science and technology with a view to helping upgrade the country's overall competitiveness and promoting industrial development. The governments of major advanced countries provide R&D support for promising future technologies. Even in South Korea, a study is being carried out to set up a model for forecasting future technologies and reinforcing the relevant survey system. This study intends to explore methods of identifying promising future technologies in the bio-science sector, which has emerged as a new growth engine. It will use a text-mining technique to collect and analyze theses in the bio science sector. It will identify key research sectors by analyzing thesis contour lines, and then review promising future key research subjects through in-depth study.

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Future Promising Industries and Its Associated Ppuri-Technologies that will Change the World Expected by MOTIE R&D Program Directors(PD) (산업기술 R&D PD가 바라보는 미래 유망산업분야와 뿌리기술)

  • June, Younggun;Ahn, Hyungsu;Kim, Sungduk
    • Transactions of the KSME C: Technology and Education
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    • v.1 no.2
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    • pp.147-152
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    • 2013
  • In this paper, we surveyed the opinion of MOTIE(Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy) R&D PDs about what are the future promising industries and their mainly associated Ppuri-technologies. According to the survey result, the future technology trends are to shift the technologies beyond their own critical performance and dominate human-centered technologies through converging technologies. In particular, the 4 industries, personalized medical technology, intelligent and emotional-based system, solar power technology and flexible technology, are expected to be good perspective industries in the near future. In order to grow these industries, we need to develop the core Ppuri-technologies that are very closely related to the future main industries. More than all, Ppuri-technology acts as a leverage for the future promising industry and is expected to be the strong supporter in manufacturing infra.

A Study on the Projection of the IT-based Promising Technologies Utilizing Patent Database (특허 정보를 활용한 IT 유망기술 도출에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Pang-Ryong;Hwang, Sung-Hyun
    • The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
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    • v.34 no.10B
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    • pp.1021-1030
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    • 2009
  • Advanced countries, in recent, are trying hard to acquire intellectual properties on the promising technologies for prior occupation in the future market. The purpose of this study is to derive the IT-based Promising Technologies and find out their implications, focusing on the US patent market known as the most competitive in the world patent market. In this paper, We give a manipulated definition on the IT-based Promising Technologies and deduct the Promising Technologies based on the definition. To accomplish this purpose, we have utilized the US patents granted for the period 2001-2008 in the IT technology. As a result, we have found that 69 fields are classified as the Promising Technologies among 803 IT fields in a criterion of IPC main-group.

The Analysis of Promising Technology of Regional Main Industry Using Patent Indicators - Focusing on Changwon-si - (특허지표를 활용한 지역주력산업 유망기술 분석에 관한 연구 - 창원시를 중심으로 -)

  • Park, Jang-Hoon;Ock, Young-Seok
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Information and Communication Engineering
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    • v.23 no.11
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    • pp.1414-1419
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    • 2019
  • Patent indicators were used to analyze the movements of local industries in order to derive blank technologies due to rapid changes in technology in the 4th Industrial Revolution and to discover promising technologies. Currently, Changwon-si is gathering a lot of technical information to develop hydrogen electric vehicle technology as a future regional flagship industry to discover it as a promising technology in the future. Collecting technical information has many problems in terms of time and cost due to classification methods, technical trends, and similar technologies. Therefore, a systematic classification of technical information and a method for easily deriving technical trends are needed. In this paper, we analyzed the blank technology and promising technology trends for the future core industries of the region through the method of measuring the growth rate of patents and the frequency of patent application through the patent indicators.

Discovering Promising Convergence Technologies Using Network Analysis of Maturity and Dependency of Technology (기술 성숙도 및 의존도의 네트워크 분석을 통한 유망 융합 기술 발굴 방법론)

  • Choi, Hochang;Kwahk, Kee-Young;Kim, Namgyu
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.24 no.1
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    • pp.101-124
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    • 2018
  • Recently, most of the technologies have been developed in various forms through the advancement of single technology or interaction with other technologies. Particularly, these technologies have the characteristic of the convergence caused by the interaction between two or more techniques. In addition, efforts in responding to technological changes by advance are continuously increasing through forecasting promising convergence technologies that will emerge in the near future. According to this phenomenon, many researchers are attempting to perform various analyses about forecasting promising convergence technologies. A convergence technology has characteristics of various technologies according to the principle of generation. Therefore, forecasting promising convergence technologies is much more difficult than forecasting general technologies with high growth potential. Nevertheless, some achievements have been confirmed in an attempt to forecasting promising technologies using big data analysis and social network analysis. Studies of convergence technology through data analysis are actively conducted with the theme of discovering new convergence technologies and analyzing their trends. According that, information about new convergence technologies is being provided more abundantly than in the past. However, existing methods in analyzing convergence technology have some limitations. Firstly, most studies deal with convergence technology analyze data through predefined technology classifications. The technologies appearing recently tend to have characteristics of convergence and thus consist of technologies from various fields. In other words, the new convergence technologies may not belong to the defined classification. Therefore, the existing method does not properly reflect the dynamic change of the convergence phenomenon. Secondly, in order to forecast the promising convergence technologies, most of the existing analysis method use the general purpose indicators in process. This method does not fully utilize the specificity of convergence phenomenon. The new convergence technology is highly dependent on the existing technology, which is the origin of that technology. Based on that, it can grow into the independent field or disappear rapidly, according to the change of the dependent technology. In the existing analysis, the potential growth of convergence technology is judged through the traditional indicators designed from the general purpose. However, these indicators do not reflect the principle of convergence. In other words, these indicators do not reflect the characteristics of convergence technology, which brings the meaning of new technologies emerge through two or more mature technologies and grown technologies affect the creation of another technology. Thirdly, previous studies do not provide objective methods for evaluating the accuracy of models in forecasting promising convergence technologies. In the studies of convergence technology, the subject of forecasting promising technologies was relatively insufficient due to the complexity of the field. Therefore, it is difficult to find a method to evaluate the accuracy of the model that forecasting promising convergence technologies. In order to activate the field of forecasting promising convergence technology, it is important to establish a method for objectively verifying and evaluating the accuracy of the model proposed by each study. To overcome these limitations, we propose a new method for analysis of convergence technologies. First of all, through topic modeling, we derive a new technology classification in terms of text content. It reflects the dynamic change of the actual technology market, not the existing fixed classification standard. In addition, we identify the influence relationships between technologies through the topic correspondence weights of each document, and structuralize them into a network. In addition, we devise a centrality indicator (PGC, potential growth centrality) to forecast the future growth of technology by utilizing the centrality information of each technology. It reflects the convergence characteristics of each technology, according to technology maturity and interdependence between technologies. Along with this, we propose a method to evaluate the accuracy of forecasting model by measuring the growth rate of promising technology. It is based on the variation of potential growth centrality by period. In this paper, we conduct experiments with 13,477 patent documents dealing with technical contents to evaluate the performance and practical applicability of the proposed method. As a result, it is confirmed that the forecast model based on a centrality indicator of the proposed method has a maximum forecast accuracy of about 2.88 times higher than the accuracy of the forecast model based on the currently used network indicators.

Research Technology Evolution of UAV(Unmanned Aerial Vehicle) and to Prospect Promising Technology (무인항공기 기술진화 탐색 및 유망기술 발굴 연구)

  • Joo, Seong-Hyeon
    • Journal of Aerospace System Engineering
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    • v.13 no.6
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    • pp.80-89
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    • 2019
  • Prospecting future social environmental changes and improvement research on future technologies is required for prospecting promising technology, as it would be useful for institution·company to set up technical planning. This study aims at providing a methodology for retaining international technology competitiveness, marketable industry, and sustainable promising technology in a field of new growth engine industry such as national unmanned aerial vehicle industry. We draw a result by analysing with tools such as KrKwic, Excel, NetMiner, presenting methods of a Social Network Analysis, sub-group analysis, and cognitive map analysis based on patent data in a field of unmanned aerial vehicle industry. Therefore, this study explored the technology evolution of UAV and to prospect promising technology. As a result, some future promising technologies are prospected as what worths concentrated investment, such as 'system integration tech', 'assessment/airworthiness certification tech', 'avionics', 'pilot control tech', 'identification of friend or foe', 'flight control tech', 'supportive equipment'.

Future Technological Foresight and Promising Emerging Technology Selection Frameworks based on Six Human Senses (인간의 6감각 기반의 미래 기술예측조사 및 유망기술 발굴 체제연구)

  • Cho, Ilgu;Lee, Jungmann
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.17 no.4
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    • pp.229-236
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    • 2017
  • Technology foresight is the process which investigate long term science, technology, economic and social effects to derive strategic R&D and future promising technologies. This study shows that new systematic framework based on technology classifications of space and action in human society, future six senses was employed as a new research method for effective process of future technology foresight. In addition, to increase the acceptance, forecasting, and uniqueness of new technology, we derived major issues of future society and demand-base products and services through the new process of ICT future mega trend analysis, the findings and selections of future technology, and future scenario based on human six senses.

Analysis of Patent Trends and Cooperative Network of Future-leading Items in the Field of Autonomous Driving (완전 자율주행분야 미래선도품목의 특허동향 및 협력 네트워크 분석)

  • Junghwan Lee;Jinyong Kim;Ji-hyuk Cho;Hyengsuk Kim
    • Journal of Information Technology Applications and Management
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    • v.29 no.6
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    • pp.1-12
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    • 2022
  • In recent years, technological competition in the automobile sector is accelerating. This study analyzes the status of patents from a global perspective of three promising future items that Korea has selected as core technologies in the field of autonomous driving,. And the technological cooperation ecosystem was identified through network analysis centered on scientific metrology. As a result of the analysis, it was confirmed that the growth of individual technologies has been strengthened in recent years, and although key source technologies have been largely preempted in major global countries, a close cooperative ecosystem between institutions, companies, and universities in major countries has not yet been formed. Specifically, the US and Japan have the technological leadership, while China is rapidly rising, and Korea is chasing after it as a latecomer. Therefore, it is necessary to continuously strengthen technological cooperation such as R&D of core technology to overcome technological limitations and strengthening of infrastructure construction, attracting excellent foreign talents and international exchanges. This analysis is meaningful in that it explores the global status of Korea's technology and the possibility of technological cooperation from various perspectives in the future from the viewpoint of preoccupation of future technology, rather than grasping the trend of a specific technology.