• Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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• v.44 no.4
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• pp.1-11
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• 2021

Recently, the importance of preventive maintenance has been emerging since failures in a complex system are automatically detected due to the development of artificial intelligence techniques and sensor technology. Therefore, prognostic and health management (PHM) is being actively studied, and prediction of the remaining useful life (RUL) of the system is being one of the most important tasks. A lot of researches has been conducted to predict the RUL. Deep learning models have been developed to improve prediction performance, but studies on identifying the importance of features are not carried out. It is very meaningful to extract and interpret features that affect failures while improving the predictive accuracy of RUL is important. In this paper, a total of six popular deep learning models were employed to predict the RUL, and identified important variables for each model through SHAP (Shapley Additive explanations) that one of the explainable artificial intelligence (XAI). Moreover, the fluctuations and trends of prediction performance according to the number of variables were identified. This paper can suggest the possibility of explainability of various deep learning models, and the application of XAI can be demonstrated. Also, through this proposed method, it is expected that the possibility of utilizing SHAP as a feature selection method.

• Journal of Trauma and Injury
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• v.35 no.1
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• pp.25-33
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• 2022

Purpose: The scoring system for traumatic liver injury (SSTLI) was developed in 2015 to predict mortality in patients with polytraumatic liver injury. This study aimed to validate the SSTLI as a prognostic factor in patients with polytrauma and liver injury through a generalized estimating equation analysis. Methods: The medical records of 521 patients with traumatic liver injury from January 2015 to December 2019 were reviewed. The primary outcome variable was in-hospital mortality. All the risk factors were analyzed using multivariate logistic regression analysis. The SSTLI has five clinical measures (age, Injury Severity Score, serum total bilirubin level, prothrombin time, and creatinine level) chosen based on their predictive power. Each measure is scored as 0-1 (age and Injury Severity Score) or 0-3 (serum total bilirubin level, prothrombin time, and creatinine level). The SSTLI score corresponds to the total points for each item (0-11 points). Results: The areas under the curve of the SSTLI to predict mortality on post-traumatic days 0, 1, 3, and 5 were 0.736, 0.783, 0.830, and 0.824, respectively. A very good to excellent positive correlation was observed between the probability of mortality and the SSTLI score (γ=0.997, P<0.001). A value of 5 points was used as the threshold to distinguish low-risk (<5) from high-risk (≥5) patients. Multivariate analysis using the generalized estimating equation in the logistic regression model indicated that the SSTLI score was an independent predictor of mortality (odds ratio, 1.027; 95% confidence interval, 1.018-1.036; P<0.001). Conclusions: The SSTLI was verified to predict mortality in patients with polytrauma and liver injury. A score of ≥5 on the SSTLI indicated a high-risk of post-traumatic mortality.

• Clinics in Shoulder and Elbow
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• v.26 no.1
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• pp.32-40
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• 2023

Background: The purpose of this study was to identify predictors of the time from initial presentation to total shoulder arthroplasty (TSA) in patients with primary glenohumeral osteoarthritis (OA) and rotator cuff (RTC) arthropathy who were conservatively managed with corticosteroid injections. Methods: We conducted a retrospective cohort study of patients who underwent TSA from 2010 to 2021. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis was used to estimate median time to TSA for primary OA and RTC arthropathy patients. The Cox proportional hazards model was used to identify significant predictors of time to TSA and to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Statistical significance was set at P<0.05. Results: The cohort included 160 patients with primary OA and 92 with RTC arthropathy. In the primary OA group, median time to TSA was 15 months. Significant predictors of shorter time to TSA were older age at presentation (HR, 1.02; 95% CI, 1.00-1.04; P=0.03) and presence of moderate or severe acromioclavicular joint arthritis (HR, 1.45; 95% CI, 1.05-2.01; P=0.03). In the RTC arthropathy group, median time to TSA was 14 months, and increased number of corticosteroid injections was associated with longer time to TSA (HR, 0.87; 95% CI, 0.80-0.95; P=0.003). Conclusions: There are distinct prognostic factors for progression to TSA between primary OA patients and RTC arthropathy patients managed with corticosteroid injections. Multiple corticosteroid injections are associated with delayed time to TSA in RTC arthropathy patients.

• IMMUNE NETWORK
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• v.20 no.4
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• pp.33.1-33.19
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• 2020

We tested how adjuvants effect in a cancer vaccine model using an epitope derived from an autoactivation loop of membrane-type protease serine protease 14 (PRSS14; loop metavaccine) in mouse mammary tumor virus (MMTV)-polyoma middle tumor-antigen (PyMT) system and in 2 other orthotopic mouse systems. Earlier, we reported that loop metavaccine effectively prevented progression and metastasis regardless of adjuvant types and TH types of hosts in tail-vein injection systems. However, the loop metavaccine with Freund's complete adjuvant (CFA) reduced cancer progression and metastasis while that with alum, to our surprise, were adversely affected in 3 tumor bearing mouse models. The amounts of loop peptide specific antibodies inversely correlated with tumor burden and metastasis, meanwhile both T_H1 and T_H2 isotypes were present regardless of host type and adjuvant. Tumor infiltrating myeloid cells such as eosinophil, monocyte, and neutrophil were asymmetrically distributed among 2 adjuvant groups with loop metavaccine. Systemic expression profiling using the lymph nodes of the differentially immunized MMTV-PyMT mouse revealed that adjuvant types, as well as loop metavaccine can change the immune signatures. Specifically, loop metavaccine itself induces T_H2 and T_H17 responses but reduces T_H1 and T_reg responses regardless of adjuvant type, whereas CFA but not alum increased follicular T_H response. Among the myeloid signatures, eosinophil was most distinct between CFA and alum. Survival analysis of breast cancer patients showed that eosinophil chemokines can be useful prognostic factors in PRSS14 positive patients. Based on these observations, we concluded that multiple immune parameters are to be considered when applying a vaccine strategy to cancer patients.

• International Journal of Computer Science & Network Security
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• v.23 no.12
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• pp.167-174
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• 2023

Electronic educational environments in the conditions of quarantine restrictions of COVID-19 have become a common phenomenon for the organization of distance educational activities. Under the conditions of Russian aggression, Ukrainian proof of their use is unique. The purpose of the article is to analyze the role of electronic educational environments in the process of training applicants for higher education in Ukraine in the realities of a large-scale war. General scientific methods (analysis, synthesis, deduction, and induction) and special pedagogical prognostic methods, modeling, and SWOT analysis methods were used. In the results, the general properties of the Internet educational platforms common in Ukraine, the peculiarities of using the Moodle and Prometheus platforms, and an approximate model of the electronic learning environment were discussed. The reasons for the popularity of Moodle among Ukrainian universities are analyzed, but vulnerable elements related to security are emphasized. It was also determined that the high cost of Prometheus software and less functionality made this learning environment less relevant. The conclusions state that the military actions drew the attention of universities in Ukraine to the formation of their own educational platforms. This is especially relevant for technical and military institutions of higher education.

• Korean Journal of Radiology
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• v.21 no.9
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• pp.1095-1103
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• 2020

Objective: The present study aimed to investigate whether quantitative dual-energy computed tomography (DECT) parameters offer an incremental risk stratification benefit over the CT ventricular diameter ratio in patients with acute pulmonary embolism (PE) by using propensity score analysis. Materials and Methods: This study was conducted on 480 patients with acute PE who underwent CT pulmonary angiography (CTPA) or DECT pulmonary angiography (DE CT-PA). This propensity-matched study population included 240 patients with acute PE each in the CTPA and DECT groups. Altogether, 260 (54.1%) patients were men, and the mean age was 64.9 years (64.9 ± 13.5 years). The primary endpoint was all-cause death within 30 days. The Cox proportional hazards regression model was used to identify associations between CT parameters and outcomes and to identify potential predictors. Concordance (C) statistics were used to compare the prognoses between the two groups. Results: In both CTPA and DECT groups, right to left ventricle diameter ratio ≥ 1 was associated with an increased risk of all-cause death within 30 days (hazard ratio: 3.707, p < 0.001 and 5.573, p < 0.001, respectively). However, C-statistics showed no statistically significant difference between the CTPA and DECT groups for predicting death within 30 days (C-statistics: 0.759 vs. 0.819, p = 0.117). Conclusion: Quantitative measurement of lung perfusion defect volume by DECT had no added benefit over CT ventricular diameter ratio for predicting all-cause death within 30 days.

• Parasites, Hosts and Diseases
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• v.30 no.3
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• pp.177-182
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• 1992

Levels of platelets and other hematological values were monitored in 21 Saimiri and 12 Aotus monkeys over a period of three weeks post·infection with monkey·adapted Indochina CDC-1 strain of Plasmedium falciparum. In both Snlinoiri sciureus boliviensis and Aetus nancymai karyotype-1 monkeys the severest thrombocytopenia was observed at 14 days post-infection coinciding with peak parasitemia, neutropenia, Iynlphocytosis, and anemia associated with severe hemoglobinemia and elevated fibrinogen degeneration products(FDP's), MCH and MCV profiles in Aotus monkeys decreased with ascending parasitemia. In contrast, these parameters in Saimiri were characterized by a significant compensatory increase correlating with parasitemia. In general, thrombocytopenia was one of the earliest clinical manifestations of the infection with the platelets returning to normal levels shortly after peak parasitenlia at 14 days. Platelet kinetics had a strong correlation with hematologic and parasitologic values in the Aotus nlodel. No consistent associations were observed between platelet kinetics and other parameters in the Saimiri model. These data indicate that the Aotus model for malaria is more predictable than the Saimiri. Further, platelet turnover rates and recovery provide a useful prognostic parameter during malaria infection. The results are discussed in relation to the value of the two species of monkeys as models for the pathogenesis of human malaria.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• v.15 no.7
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• pp.3233-3238
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• 2014

Background: The aim of this study was to analyze the demographic and clinical characteristics of male breast cancer patients in Serbia, and furthermore to determine overall survival and predictive factors for prognosis. Materials and Methods: In the period of 1996-2006 histopathological diagnosis of breast cancer was made in 84 males at the Institute for Oncology and Radiology of Serbia. For statistical analyses the Kaplan-Meier method, long-rank test and Cox proportional hazards regression model were used. Results: The mean age at diagnosis with breast cancer was $64.3{\pm}10.5$ years with a range from 35-84 years. Nearly 80% of the tumors showed ductal histology. About 44% had early tumor stages (I and II) whereas 46.4% and 9.5% of the male exhibitied stages III and IV, respectively. Only 7.1% of male patients were grade one. One-fifth of all patients had tumors measuring ${\leq}2cm$, and 14.3% larger than 5 cm. Lymph node metastasis was recorded in 40.4% patients and 47% relapse. Estrogen and progesterone receptor expression was positive in 66.7% and 58.3%, respectively. Among 14.3% of individuals tumor was HER2 positive. About two-thirds of all male patients had radical mastectomy (66.7%). Adjuvant hormonal (tamoxifene), systematic chemotherapy (CMF or FAC) and adjuvant radiotherapy were given to 59.5%, 35.7% and 29.8% patients respectively. Overall survival rates at five and ten years for male breast cancer were 55.0% and 43.9%, respectively. According to the multivariate Cox regression predictive model, a lower initial disease stage, a lower tumor grade, application of adjuvant hormone therapy and no relapse occurrence were significant independent predictors for good overall survival. Conclusions: Results of the treatment would be better if disease is discovered earlier and therefore health education and screening are an imperative in solving this problem.

• Journal of Trauma and Injury
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• v.25 no.2
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• pp.49-56
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• 2012

Purpose: For determining the prognosis of critically injured patients, transporting patients to medical facilities capable of providing proper assessment and management, running rapid assessment and making rapid decisions, and providing aggressive resuscitation is vital. Considering the high mortality and morbidity rates in critically injured patients, various studies have been conducted in efforts to reduce those rates. However, studies related to diagnostic factors for predicting severity in critically injured patients are still lacking. Furthermore, patients showing stable vital signs and alert mental status, who are injured via a severe trauma mechanism, may be at a risk of not receiving rapid assessment and management. Thus, this study investigates diagnostic factors, including physical examination and laboratory results, that may help predict severity in trauma patients injured via a severe trauma mechanism, but showing stable vital signs. Methods: From March 2010 to December 2011, all trauma patients who fit into a diagnostic category that activated a major trauma team in CHA Bundang Medical Center were analyzed retrospectively. The retrospective analysis was based on prospective medical records completed at the time of arrival in the emergency department and on sequential laboratory test results. PASW statistics 18(SPSS Inc., Chicago, IL, USA) was used for the statistical analysis. Patients with relatively stable vital signs and alert mental status were selected based on a revised trauma score of more than 7 points. The final diagnosis of major trauma was made based on an injury severity score of greater than 16 points. Diagnostic variables include systolic blood pressure and respiratory rate, glasgow coma scale, initial result from focused abdominal sonography for trauma, and laboratory results from blood tests and urine analyses. To confirm the true significance of the measured values, we applied the Kolmogorov-Smirnov one sample test and the Shapiro-Wilk test. When significance was confirmed, the Student's t-test was used for comparison; when significance was not confirmed, the Mann-Whitney u-test was used. The results of focused abdominal sonography for trauma (FAST) and factors of urine analysis were analyzed using the Chi-square test or Fisher's exact test. Variables with statistical significance were selected as prognostics factors, and they were analyzed using a multivariate logistics regression model. Results: A total of 269 patients activated the major trauma team. Excluding 91 patients who scored a revised trauma score of less than 7 points, 178 patients were subdivided by injury severity score to determine the final major trauma patients. Twenty-one(21) patients from 106 major trauma patients and 9 patients from 72 minor trauma patients were also excluded due to missing medical records or untested blood and urine analysis. The investigated variables with p-values less than 0.05 include the glasgow coma scale, respiratory rate, white blood cell count (WBC), serum AST and ALT, serum creatinine, blood in spot urine, and protein in spot urine. These variables could, thus, be prognostic factors in major trauma patients. A multivariate logistics regression analysis on those 8 variables showed the respiratory rate (p=0.034), WBC (p=0.005) and blood in spot urine (p=0.041) to be independent prognostic factors for predicting the clinical course of major trauma patients. Conclusion: In trauma patients injured via a severe trauma mechanism, but showing stable vital signs and alert mental status, the respiratory rate, WBC count and blood in the urine can be used as predictable factors for severity. Using those laboratory results, rapid assessment of major trauma patients may shorten the time to diagnosis and the time for management.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• v.16 no.11
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• pp.4603-4608
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• 2015

Background: To determine the potential value of serum tumor markers in predicting pCR (pathological complete response) during neoadjuvant chemotherapy. Materials and Methods: We retrospectively monitored the pro-, mid-, and post-neoadjuvant treatment serum tumor marker concentrations in patients with locally advanced breast cancer (stage II-III) who accepted pre-surgical chemotherapy or chemotherapy in combination with targeted therapy at Fudan University Shanghai Cancer Center between September 2011 and January 2014 and investigated the association of serum tumor marker levels with therapeutic effect. Core needle biopsy samples were assessed using immunohistochemistry (IHC) prior to neoadjuvant treatment to determine hormone receptor, human epidermal growth factor receptor 2(HER2), and proliferation index Ki67 values. In our study, therapeutic response was evaluated by pCR, defined as the disappearance of all invasive cancer cells from excised tissue (including primary lesion and axillary lymph nodes) after completion of chemotherapy. Analysis of variance of repeated measures and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were employed for statistical analysis of the data. Results: A total of 348 patients were recruited in our study after excluding patients with incomplete clinical information. Of these, 106 patients were observed to have acquired pCR status after treatment completion, accounting for approximately 30.5% of study individuals. In addition, 147patients were determined to be Her-2 positive, among whom the pCR rate was 45.6% (69 patients). General linear model analysis (repeated measures analysis of variance) showed that the concentration of cancer antigen (CA) 15-3 increased after neoadjuvant chemotherapy in both pCR and non-pCR groups, and that there were significant differences between the two groups (P=0.008). The areas under the ROC curves (AUCs) of pre-, mid-, and post-treatment CA15-3 concentrations demonstrated low-level predictive value (AUC=0.594, 0.644, 0.621, respectively). No significant differences in carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) or CA12-5 serum levels were observed between the pCR and non-pCR groups (P=0.196 and 0.693, respectively). No efficient AUC of CEA or CA12-5 concentrations were observed to predict patient response toward neoadjuvant treatment (both less than 0.7), nor were differences between the two groups observed at different time points. We then analyzed the Her-2 positive subset of our cohort. Significant differences in CEA concentrations were identified between the pCR and non-pCR groups (P=0.039), but not in CA15-3 or CA12-5 levels (p=0.092 and 0.89, respectively). None of the ROC curves showed underlying prognostic value, as the AUCs of these three markers were less than 0.7. The ROC-AUCs for the CA12-5 concentrations of inter-and post-neoadjuvant chemotherapy in the estrogen receptor negative HER2 positive subgroup were 0.735 and 0.767, respectively. However, the specificity and sensitivity values were at odds with each other which meant that improving either the sensitivity or specificity would impair the efficiency of the other. Conclusions: Serum tumor markers CA15-3, CA12-5, and CEA might have little clinical significance in predicting neoadjuvant treatment response in locally advanced breast cancer.