• 제목/요약/키워드: probit analysis

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Severity Analysis for Vulnerable Pedestrian Accident Utilizing Vehicle Recorder Database of Taxi (택시 영상DB를 활용한 교통약자 보행자 사고의 심각도 분석)

  • Chung, JaeHoon;Sul, Jaehoon;Choi, SungTaek;Rho, JeongHyun;Lee, Jisun
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.29 no.3
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    • pp.98-106
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    • 2014
  • This study proposes severity analysis for pedestrian accidents by improving variables which were used for general severity analysis. The existing variables were collected based on the interviews with policeman or witnesses and evidence of accidents. Therefore, existing variables were subjective and had several measurement errors. In order to improve such problems, this study collected variables from vehicle recorder of taxi which recorded the moment of accidents. As a result, explanatory power of independent variables was enhanced and the complete objective variables could be collected. After collecting variables, ordered probit model was developed by utilizing vehicle recorder database. Fitness of ordered probit model was 0.23. Vehicle speed and pedestrian's eye direction variables were the most critical factors for severity of pedestrian accident. In addition, severity analysis for vulnerable pedestrian was carried out. As a result, it was revealed that vehicle speed, pedestrian's eye direction and safety zone variables affected the severity of pedestrian accidents most. Particularly, vehicle speed variable is the most important factor. Consequently, driver's defensive driving and compliance to the regulations are the priority to reduce severity of pedestrian accidents and prevent pedestrian accident.

Assessing Tourists' Restaurant Preferences within Tourism Area (관광 지역 음식점에 대한 관광객들의 선호도 평가)

  • Kang, Jong-Heon;Jeong, Hang-Jin
    • Journal of the East Asian Society of Dietary Life
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    • v.18 no.2
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    • pp.165-171
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    • 2008
  • The purpose of this study was to measure tourists' preference for alternative restaurants with different combinations of attribute levels: grown area logo, origin description, traditional food, fusion food, national food, and price. A total of 210 questionnaires were completed. A conjoint experimental method was used to develop hypothetical restaurants, and an ordinal probit model was used to measure the effects of the attribute levels on tourists' preference. The ordinal probit model analysis results for the data indicated an excellent model fit. The effects of the attribute levels on tourists' preferences were statistically significant. As expected, estimates of the marginal willingness to pay were statistically significant Moreover, the tourists were more willing to pay for grown area logo as compared to the other attribute levels. The tourists also considered the grown area logo as a very important attribute. Withe regard to developing and testing conjoint models in the design of choice experiments involving multifactor alternatives, this study may approach a deeper understanding of the conjoint experiment. Greater understanding of the conjoint experiment can improve the managerial diagnoses of the problems as well as the opportunities for different marketing strategies including local branding programs and menu development and marketing communications.

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Who Are Domestic Travel Agency Users and Who Buys Full Package Trips? A Study of Korean Outbound Travelers

  • AHN, Young-Joo;LEE, Seul Ki;AHN, Yoon-Young
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.6 no.4
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    • pp.147-158
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    • 2019
  • The purpose of this study is to identify differences based on demographic characteristics and travel-related characteristics: first, whether travelers used a domestic travel agency and second whether travelers purchased a full-package travel program. A sample selection probit model was used to provide simultaneous evaluation of the different characteristics of outbound travelers. The present study investigates how tourists make decisions based on two travel-pattern choices. It then goes on to explore the characteristics of outbound travelers from South Korea. The data is drawn from a nationwide survey in South Korea, and a total of 859 surveys were used for analysis. Due to the interdependent nature of the choices, a sample selection probit model was used to estimate outbound tourists' use of domestic travel agency and purchase of full travel package. Significant determinants of domestic travel agency use are identified as age, gender, marital status, party size, children, length of travel, and travel distance, while those of full travel package purchase are age, marital status, and travel purpose. Estimated results provide manifestations of differing travel needs of outbound travelers. the results of this study demonstrate differences between travel-agency users and full-package travel-program consumers and provide determinants that affect the purchase of full-package travel.

Re-visitation Choice Impacts of Consideration on Sustainable Tourism Development - Using Logit and Probit Models - (지속가능한 관광개발 의식이 지역 재방문 선택에 미치는 영향 - 로짓모형과 프로빗모형을 활용하여 -)

  • Shin, Sang-Hyun;Yun, Hee-Jeong
    • Journal of Korean Society of Rural Planning
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    • v.17 no.1
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    • pp.59-65
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    • 2011
  • Re-visitation have an effect on dependent variables of regional tourism demand model. This study focused on the re-visitation impacts of consideration on sustainable tourism development of tourists as a new factors of tourism. Based on literature reviews, 11 variables were selected, a questionnaire survey was given to 406 tourists divided into 5 tourism sites at Chuncheon city, and logit model and probit model were used for analysis. The fitness levels of two models were very significant(p=0.0000). The study results suggest that the likelihood of the rural tourist to make a return visit is influenced by recognition of sustainable tourism, purchase of souvenir and farm produce, visitation of regional shops, conversation with regional residents, residents' participation on development, age and marriage. The results of such re-visitation demand can provide information for regional development strategies. The approach to re-visitation research impacts of consideration on sustainable tourism development is expected to become a useful foundation in studying on sustainable regional development.

Assessing the Factors Influencing Preference for the Restaurants in Tourist Areas (관광지역 음식점에 대한 선호도에 영향을 미치는 요인 평가)

  • Kang, Jong-Heon;Jeong, Hang-Jin
    • Culinary science and hospitality research
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    • v.14 no.2
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    • pp.215-224
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    • 2008
  • The objective for this research was to clarify the preference for alternative restaurants with different combinations of factor levels: local specialty food, non-local specialty food, very attentive service, moderately attentive service, not attentive service, traditional decoration, modern decoration, \10,000, \15,000, and \20,000. Total 230 copies of questionnaire were completed. Conjoint experiment method was used to develop full restaurant profiles. Ordinal probit model was used to measure the effects of factor levels on the preference. Results of the study demonstrated that the ordinal probit model analysis result for the data also indicated a good model fit. The effects of factor levels on the preference were statistically significant. As expected, the estimates of implicit price to pay were statistically significant. Moreover, the customers were more willing to pay for local specialty than other factor levels. The customers also considered the food factor as a very important factor. This research suggested that the customer's decision-making process for restaurants was best modeled as a conjoint experiment method that combines various factor levels. And it showed the results could be used as good data for understanding the relationships between the factors and preference in choosing food and restaurants in tourist areas.

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The Impact Analysis of the Leakage Scenario in the Tank of Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vessel (수소연료전지선박의 탱크 내 누출시나리오에 따른 영향분석)

  • Sang-Jin Lim ․;Yoon-Ho Lee
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Gas
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    • v.27 no.1
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    • pp.13-22
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    • 2023
  • As an alternative to environmental pollution generated from fossil fuels currently in use, research is being actively conducted to use hydrogen that does not cause air pollution. As fire and explosion accidents caused by hydrogen leakage have occurred until recently, research on safety is needed to commercialize hydrogen on ships, which are special environments. In this study, a seasonal alternative scenario for each season and the worst scenario were assumed in the event of a leakage accident while a hydrogen fuel cell propulsion ship equipped with a hydrogen storage tank was navigating at JangSaengPo port in Ulsan. In order to consider environmental variables, the damage impact range was derived through ALOHA and probit analysis based on the annual average weather data for 2021 by the Korea Meteorological Administration and on geographic information data from the National Statistical Office. Radiation showed a wider damage range than that of Overpressure and Flame in both the alternative and worst-case scenarios, and as a result of probit analysis, a fatality rate of 99% was confirmed in all areas.

A Study on the Quantitative Analysis and Estimation for Surround Building caused by Vapor Cloud Explosion(VCE) in LPG Filling Station (LPG충전소에서 증기운폭발이 주변건물에 미치는 영향의 정량적 해석 및 평가에 관한 연구)

  • Leem, Sa-Hwan;Huh, Yong-Jeong
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.25 no.1
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    • pp.44-49
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    • 2010
  • This paper is estimation of structure damage caused by Explosion in LPG(Liquefied Petroleum Gas) filling station. As we estimate the influence of damage which occur at gas storage tank in filling station. We can utilize the elementary data of safety distance. In this study, the influence of over-pressure caused by VCE(Vapor Cloud Explosion) in filling station was calculated by using the Hopkinson's scaling law and the accident damage was estimated by applying the influence on the adjacent structure into the probit model. As a result of the damage estimation conducted by using the probit model, both the damage possibility of explosion overpressure to structures of max 265 meters away and to glass bursting of 1150 meters away was nearly zero in open space explosion.

The Study on the Quantitative Analysis in LPG Tank's Fire and Explosion (LPG 저장탱크에서의 화재$\cdot$폭발에 관한 정량적 영향 평가에 관한 연구)

  • Bae Sung-Jin;Kim Byung-Jick
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Gas
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    • v.3 no.1
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    • pp.21-26
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    • 1999
  • Chemical plant's fire and explosion does not only damage to the chemical plants themselves but also damage to people in or near of the accident spot and the neighborhood of chemical plant. For that reason, Chemical process safety management has become important. One of safety management methods is called 'the quantitative analysis', which is used to reduce and prevent the accident. The results of the quantitative analysis could be used to arrange the equipments, evaluate the minimum safety distance, prepare the safety equipments. In this study we make the computer program to make easy to do Quantitative analysis of the accident. The output of the computer program is the magnitude of fire(pool fire and fireball) and explosion(UVCE and BLEVE) effects. We used the thermal radiation as a measure of fire magnitude and used the overpressure as a measure of explosion magnitude. In case of BLEVE, the fly distance of fragment can be evaluated. Also probit analysis was done in every case. As the case study, Buchun LPG explosion accident in Korea was analysed by the program developed. The simulation results showed that the permissible distance was 800m and probit analysis showed that 1st degree bum, 2nd degree burn, and death distances are 450, 280, 260m, respectively the simulation results showed the good agreement with the results from SAFER PROGRAM made by Dupont.

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Securing Objectivity of Qualitative Assessment Results using Ordered Probit Model (순서형 프로빗 모델을 활용한 정성적 평가 결과의 객관성 확보방안)

  • Jeong, Minkyu;Kang, Yuncheol;Kim, Namchul;Chung, Kwanghun
    • The Journal of Society for e-Business Studies
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    • v.27 no.1
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    • pp.81-94
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    • 2022
  • In the service sectors, the qualitative evaluation method in the form of a survey is widely used as a major assessment tool to evaluate the quality of service. However, the results obtained from a survey can involve the subjective judgment of the respondent. In this study, we propose a method to secure objectivity by excluding subjectivity that may be included in the qualitative evaluation results. In particular, we deal with a situation where the same type of qualitative evaluation tool is used repeatedly by several service providers. To this end, by utilizing both the Ordered Probit model and third-party evaluation results, we determine whether subjectivity is involved in the results. After correcting subjectivity, the final results are obtained through statistical analysis. The application analyzed in this study is the medical service area. With the actual evaluation results supplied by the service providers, we explain how objectivity can be secured from the assessment data by applying our proposed approach.

Consequence Analysis of Gas Explosion in LPG Vessel Retail Store Which is Located around Apartment Complex (LPG 판매소에서 가스 폭발이 주위 아파트에 미치는 영향 평가)

  • Lee Su-Kyung;Bae Young-Bum;Oh Jeong-Gyu
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Gas
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    • v.10 no.3 s.32
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    • pp.48-53
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    • 2006
  • In case of fire and explosion which resulted from LP gas release of LPG vessel retail store, the populated area such as apartment complex is supposed to be damaged either partially or totally. To estimate the damage of LP gas explosion, we conducted quantitative risk analysis procedure as has been recommended by AIChE/CCPS. For incident scenario selection, event tree analysis was proposed. TNT equivalent method, SAFER Trace v.8.0 and probit model were also used for consequence analysis. The various methods and analyses which were performed in this study are presented with the effect zones in the layout.

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