• Tunnel and Underground Space
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• v.20 no.1
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• pp.39-48
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• 2010

The present study developed a program which can assess the reliability of tunnel support systems based on a probability-based method. The developed program uses FLAC2D as a solver, and can automatically execute all the processes, associated with numerical and probabilistic analysis. Since a numerical analysis, which models the ground, requires a significant calculation time, it is actually impossible to apply simulation-based methods to probabilistic assessment on the reliability of tunnel support systems. Therefore, the present study used a point estimate method, which is efficient for probabilistic analysis since the method can significantly reduce the number of samples when compared with the simulation-based method. The developed program was applied to a tunnel project, and the results were compared with those through a deterministic approach. From the comparison, it was identified that a probabilistic approach can quantitatively assess the reliability of tunnel support systems based on probability of failure and can be used as a tool for decision making in tunnel support designs.

• Asian Journal for Public Opinion Research
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• v.11 no.3
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• pp.257-273
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• 2023

Conducting face-to-face surveys is difficult and cost prohibitive, necessitating a new attempt to build a probability-based panel in South Korea. Since 99.9% of adult Koreans own a mobile phone, mobile phone numbers provide a viable sampling frame. Random digit dialing (RDD) surveys were conducted August-December 2021. Of the 288,056 valid phone numbers dialed, 13,655 respondents between the ages of 19 and 69 completed a phone survey. These respondents were later invited by text message to join a panel; 3,202 of these (23.4% or 1.2% based on the number initially contacted) joined the panel. When compared to official government statistics like resident registration data, the census, or the Social Survey, this new probability-based panel can be said to be representative of the Korean population on the basis of age, gender, location, marital status, and household size after weighting is applied. However, even after weighting, panel members are more educated than the general population, white-collar workers and self-employed people are overrepresented, and blue-collar workers are underrepresented. As of February 2023, this panel has grown to 10,471 participants with plans to continue to invite more panel members in the same way. Based on the comparisons in this paper, we can regard this panel as a cost-effective, probability-based panel that may be used for various kinds of public opinion research, by researchers both within and outside of Korea. As we continue to refine and grow this panel, we hope it will become more widely used by researchers as well as provide a model for those building similar panels in other countries.

• Computers and Concrete
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• v.8 no.5
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• pp.511-524
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• 2011

Although concrete is believed to be a durable material, concrete structures have been degraded by severe environmental conditions such as the effects of chloride and chemical, abrasion, and other deterioration processes. Therefore, durability evaluation has been required to ensure the long term serviceability of structures located in chloride exposed environments. Recently, probability-based durability analysis and design have proven to be reliable for the service-life predictions of concrete structures. This approach has been successfully applied to durability estimation and design of concrete structures. However, currently it is difficult to find an appropriate method engineers can use to solve these probability-based diffusion problems. In this paper, computer software has been developed to facilitate probability-based durability analysis and design. This software predict the chloride diffusion using the Monte Carlo simulation method based on Fick's second law, and provides durability analysis and design solutions. A graphic user interface (GUI) is adapted for intuitive and easy use. The developed software is very useful not only for prediction of the service life but for the durability design of the concrete structures exposed to chloride environments.

• Geomechanics and Engineering
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• v.15 no.3
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• pp.879-888
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• 2018

Probability-based design codes have been developed to sufficiently confirm the safety level of structures. One of the most acceptable probability-based approaches is Load Resistance Factor Design (LRFD), which measures the safety level of the structures in terms of the reliability index. The main contribution of this paper is to calibrate the load and resistance factors of the design code for tunnels. The load and resistance factors are calculated using the available statistical models and probability-based procedures. The major steps include selection of representative structures, consideration of the limit state functions, calculation of reliability for the selected structures, selection of the target reliability index and calculation of load factors and resistance factors. The load and resistance models are reviewed. Statistical models of resistance (load carrying capacity) are summarized for strength limit state in bending, shear and compression. The reliability indices are calculated for several segments of a selected circular tunnel designed according to the tunnel manual report (Tunnel Manual). The novelty of this paper is the selection of the target reliability. In doing so, the uniform spectrum of reliability indices is proposed based on the probability paper. The final recommendation is proposed based on the closeness to the target reliability index.

• Journal of Institute of Control, Robotics and Systems
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• v.12 no.7
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• pp.693-699
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• 2006

An accurate and compact map is essential to an autonomous mobile robot system. For navigation, it is efficient to use an occupancy grid map because the environment is represented by probability distribution. But it is difficult to apply it to the large environment since it needs a large amount of memory proportional to the environment size. As an alternative, a topological map can be used to represent it in terms of the discrete nodes with edges connecting them. It is usually constructed by the Voronoi-like graphs, but in this paper the topological map is incrementally built based on the local grid map using the thinning algorithm. This algorithm can extract only meaningful topological information by using the C-obstacle concept in real-time and is robust to the environment change, because its underlying local grid map is constructed based on the Bayesian update formula. In this paper, the position probability is defined to evaluate the quantitative reliability of the end nodes of this thinning-based topological map (TTM). The global TTM can be constructed by merging each local TTM by matching the reliable end nodes determined by the position probability. It is shown that the proposed TTM can represent the environment accurately in real-time and it is readily extended to the global TTM.

• Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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• v.14 no.10
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• pp.207-215
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• 2009

Recently, the research of the analysis of the crime spatial is increased by using the computer information technology and GIS (Geometric Information System) in order to prevent the urban crime so as to increase the urbanization rate. In this paper, a probability map formed by the raster is organized by the quantification of crime risk per the cell using the region property of the urban spatial information in the static environment. Also, a map of the risk probability is constructed based on the relative risk by the region property, the relative risk by the facility, the relative risk by the woody plant and the river, and so on. And, this integrated risk probability map is calculated by averaging the individual cell risk applied to the climatic influence and the seasonal factor. And, a probability map of the overall risk is generated by the interpretation key of the crime occurrence relative risk index, and so, this information is applied to the probability map quantifying the occurrence crime pattern. And so, in this paper, a methodology of the modeling and the simulation that this crime risk probability map is modified according to the passage of time are proposed.

• Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
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• v.7 no.2
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• pp.125-134
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• 2003

In order to rate current bridge load carrying capacity, typically two methods are used. These are Allowable Stress Rating (ASR) and Load Factor Rating (LFR). Using the rating factors, there are many attempts to make a connection between rating factors and probability concept. The main purpose of the paper is computing the probability of overload using rating factors and probability concept. In this paper, the load rating methods are briefly explained, and the probability concept is connected to rating factors by using live load from Weigh-in-Motion (WIM). Based on the live load model and rati ng factor, the computation procedure of the probability of overload is explained.

• Journal of Internet Computing and Services
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• v.19 no.6
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• pp.101-112
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• 2018

A lot of manpower and budgets are being used to prevent fires, and only a small portion of the data generated during this process is used for disaster prevention activities. This study develops a prediction model of fire occurrence probability based on data mining in order to more actively use these data for disaster prevention activities. For this purpose, variables for predicting fire occurrence probability of various buildings were selected and data of construction administrative system, national fire information system, and Korea Fire Insurance Association were collected and integrated data set was constructed. After appropriate data cleansing and preprocessing, various data mining methodologies such as artificial neural network, decision trees, SVM, and Naive Bayesian were used to develop a prediction model of the fire occurrence probability of buildings. The most accurate model among the derived models is Linear SVM model which shows 68.42% as experimental data and 63.54% as verification data and it is the best model to predict fire occurrence probability of buildings. As this study develops the prediction model which uses only the set values of the specific ranges, future studies may explore more opportunites to use various setting values not shown in this study.

• Steel and Composite Structures
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• v.52 no.4
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• pp.461-473
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• 2024

This study focuses on the reliability of a transmission line under wind excitation and evaluates the failure probability using explicit data resources. The data-driven framework for calculating the failure probability of a transmission line subjected to wind loading is presented, and a probabilistic method for estimating the yearly extreme wind speeds in each wind direction is provided to compensate for the incompleteness of meteorological data. Meteorological data from the Xuwen National Weather Station are used to analyze the distribution characteristics of wind speed and wind direction, fitted with the generalized extreme value distribution. Then, the most vulnerable tower is identified to obtain the fragility curves in all wind directions based on uncertainty analysis. Finally, the failure probabilities are calculated based on the presented method. The simulation results reveal that the failure probability of the employed tower increases over time and that the joint probability distribution of the wind speed and wind direction must be considered to avoid overestimating the failure probability. Additionally, the mixed wind climates (synoptic wind and typhoon) have great influence on the estimation of structural failure probability and should be considered.

• The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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• v.17 no.1
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• pp.42-54
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• 2018

This study is to establish the traffic volume-based warrants of left-turn lanes in unsignalized intersections based on a risk probability methodology. This study applied a risk probability of a potential rear-end collision between a left-turn vehicle and the immediately following through vehicle. With the shifted negative exponential model and the compound probability theorem, the risk probability can be expressed as the function of directional volumes, opposing volumes and the percentage of left-turns for a two-lane and four-land highway, respectively. The warrants of installing left-turn lanes on unsignalized intersections were developed with the risk probability. The warrants define the total approaching and opposing volumes to encourage a left-turn lane as a function of operating speed, percentage of left-turn, and number of lanes.