• 제목/요약/키워드: probability of instability

검색결과 49건 처리시간 0.022초

초기 변동수위를 고려한 제방 월류에 따른 안정성 분석 (Stability Analysis of Embankment Overtopping by Initial Fluctuating Water Level)

  • 김진영;김태헌;김유성;김재홍
    • 한국지반공학회논문집
    • /
    • 제31권8호
    • /
    • pp.51-62
    • /
    • 2015
  • 지반공학적으로 제방(또는 댐) 월류에 대한 근거를 제시하기 어렵다. 수문학적인 안정성 평가에서 댐의 초기수위(만수위)를 고정시키고 강우량을 계산하기 때문에 월류 가능성은 매우 희박하다. 그러나 Copula 함수를 사용하여 초기수위가 고정된 댐의 만수위가 아닌 변동성 있는 확률수위를 적용해서 국내 40년간의 빈도를 고려할 때, 월류 가능성을 확인할 수 있었다. 수문학적 댐의 위험성 분석은 다양한 불확실성 인자 중 댐 초기수위에 대한 모의기법 개발이 필요한 복잡한 수문학적 해석을 요구한다. 본 연구에서는 기존 댐 위험도 분석 시 초기수위는 상시만수위 또는 홍수기 제한수위로 가정하지만, 이러한 보수적인 가정에 의한 연구는 기상변동성 및 기후변화의 영향을 고려하지 못하며, 댐의 월류확률 및 이에 따른 붕괴확률을 추정하는데 있어서 지반공학적인 접근이 필요하다. Copula 함수를 이용하여 댐 특성에 맞는 초기수위를 결정하였으며, HEC-5 모형을 활용하여 강우-유출 모형 매개변수의 사후분포를 정량적으로 추정하여 댐 월류확률을 산정하였다. 지반공학적인 측면에서 댐 안정성 해석은 상류사면(upstream)의 수위급강하(drawdown)에 대한 안전율과 하류사면(downstream) 월류상태에서의 불안정성을 비교하여 지반공학적 위험도를 비교 분석하였다.

COLLAPSE PRESSURE ESTIMATES AND THE APPLICATION OF A PARTIAL SAFETY FACTOR TO CYLINDERS SUBJECTED TO EXTERNAL PRESSURE

  • Yoo, Yeon-Sik;Huh, Nam-Su;Choi, Suhn;Kim, Tae-Wan;Kim, Jong-In
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
    • /
    • 제42권4호
    • /
    • pp.450-459
    • /
    • 2010
  • The present paper investigates the collapse pressure of cylinders with intermediate thickness subjected to external pressure based on detailed elastic-plastic finite element (FE) analyses. The effect of the initial ovality of the tube on the collapse pressure was explicitly considered in the FE analyses. Based on the present FE results, the analytical yield locus, considering the interaction between the plastic collapse and local instability due to initial ovality, was also proposed. The collapse pressure values based on the proposed yield locus agree well with the present FE results; thus, the validity of the proposed yield locus for the thickness range of interest was verified. Moreover, the partial safety factor concept based on the structural reliability theory was also applied to the proposed collapse pressure estimation model, and, thus, the priority of importance of respective parameter constituting for the collapse of cylinders under external pressure was estimated in this study. From the application of the partial safety factor concept, the yield strength was concluded to be the most sensitive, and the initial ovality of tube was not so effective in the proposed collapse pressure estimation model. The present deterministic and probabilistic results are expected to be utilized in the design and maintenance of cylinders subjected to external pressure with initial ovality, such as the once-through type steam generator.

CARS를 이용한 희박 예혼합 가스터빈 연소기내 온도 측정 (II)-당량비가 위상별 온도에 미치는 영향- (Phase-Resolved CARS Temperature Measurement in a Lean Premixed Gas Turbine Combustor (II) -Effect of Equivalence Ratio on Phase-Resolved Gas Temperature-)

  • 이종호;전충환;박철웅;한재원;장영준
    • 대한기계학회논문집B
    • /
    • 제28권10호
    • /
    • pp.1193-1201
    • /
    • 2004
  • The effect of equivalence ratio and fuel/air mixing quality on the phase-resolved gas temperatures at different phases of the oscillating pressure cycle was experimentally investigated. An atmospheric pressure, optically accessible and laboratory-scale dump combustor operating on methane with heat release rate of 1.59kW was used. Temperature measurements were made using coherent anti-Stokes Raman spectroscopy (CARS) at several spatial locations fur typical unstable combustion conditions. Analysis was conducted using parameters such as phase-resolved averaged temperature, normalized standard deviation and temperature probability distribution functions (PDFs). Also the probability on the occurrence of high temperature (over 1900K) was investigated to get the information on the perturbation of equivalence ratio and NOx emission characteristics. It was shown that most of temperature histograms exhibit Gaussian profile which has short breadth of temperature fluctuation at equivalence ratio of 0.6, while beta profile was predominant for the cases of other equivalence ratios (${\Phi}$=0.55, 0.50). It was also shown that phase-resolved averaged temperature oscillated in phase with pressure cycle, while normalized standard deviations which represent temporal turbulent intensity of temperature showed nearly constant value around 0.1. The characteristics on the occurrence of high temperature also displayed periodic wave form which was very similar to the pressure signal. And the amplitude of this profile went larger as the fuel/air mixing quality became poorer. These also provided additional information on the perturbation of equivalence ratio at flame as well as NOx emission characteristics.

CARS를 이용한 희박 예혼합 가스터빈 연소기내 온도 측정 (2);당량비가 위상별 온도에 미치는 영향 (Phase-resolved CARS Temperature Measurements in a Lean Premixed Gas Turbine Combustor (2);Effect of equivalence ratio on phase-resolved gas temperature)

  • 이종호;문건필;박철웅;한재원;전충환;장영준
    • 한국연소학회:학술대회논문집
    • /
    • 대한연소학회 2003년도 제27회 KOSCO SYMPOSIUM 논문집
    • /
    • pp.103-108
    • /
    • 2003
  • The effect of equivalence ratio and fuel/air mixing quality on the phase-resolved gas temperatures at different phases of the oscillating pressure cycle was experimentally investigated. An atmospheric pressure, optically accessible and laboratory-scale dump combustor operating on methane with heat release rate of 1.59kW was used. Temperature measurements were made using coherent anti-Stokes Raman spectroscopy (CARS) at several spatial locations for typical unstable combustion conditions. Analysis was conducted using parameters such as phase-resolved averaged temperature, normalized standard deviation and temperature probability distribution functions (PDFs). Also the probability on the occurrence of high temperature (over 1900K) was investigated to get the information on the perturbation of equivalence ratio and NOx emission characteristics. It was shown that most of temperature histograms exhibit Gaussian profile which has short breadth of temperature fluctuation at equivalence ratio of 0.6, while beta profile was predominant for the cases of other equivalence ratios (${\Phi}$=0.55, 0.50). The characteristics on the occurrence of high temperature also displayed periodic wave form which is very similar to the pressure signal. And the amplitude of this profile goes larger as the fuel/air mixing quality become poorer. These also provided additional information on the perturbation of equivalence ratio at flame as well as NOx emission characteristics.

  • PDF

근로자의 건강영향인지와 사망만인율을 통한 직무스트레스 해소계수 산정 - 제조업 현장근로자를 중심으로 - (Estimation of Job Stress Relieve Coefficient through Recognizing Health Effects of Workers and Death Rate per 10,000 workers - A manufacturing worker -)

  • 한만형;천영우;이익모;황용우
    • 한국산업보건학회지
    • /
    • 제29권1호
    • /
    • pp.69-81
    • /
    • 2019
  • Objective: The purpose of this study was to find out what kind of change in death rate when job stress is solved by calculating job stress relieve coefficient. Methods: This study used the data of the fourth working condition survey. Regression analysis was used to determine the relationship between health effects recognition and Death rate per 10,000 workers. After that the recognizing and non - recognizing groups were categorized by health effects recognition, and the differences between the two groups were confirmed by cross tabulation analysis. Results: Regress analysis P-value is 0.011 and $R^2$ is 0.979. Death rate per 10,000 worker increased with the increase in the number of non - health impact recognizing group. The relieve factors were (1) work culture(2.859) (2) physical environment(2.184), (3) improper reward (1,839), (4) relationship conflict(1.646), (5) job requirement(1.613), (6) job autonomy(1.354), (7) job instability(1.334), And (8) organizational system(1.201). The higher the relieve coefficient is, the higher the probability of belonging to the non - health impact recognizing group when there is no job stress factor. Conclusions: When job stress is resolved, there is a high probability that the health impact recognition is reduced, which can lead to an increase in death rate. but according to previous studies, Job stress can cause accidents by reducing the safety behavior of accidents. The job stress management plan should simultaneously consider reducing job stress and increasing health impact recognition.

The Predictable Factors of the Postoperative Kyphotic Change of Sagittal Alignment of the Cervical Spine after the Laminoplasty

  • Lee, Jun Seok;Son, Dong Wuk;Lee, Su Hun;Kim, Dong Ha;Lee, Sang Weon;Song, Geun Sung
    • Journal of Korean Neurosurgical Society
    • /
    • 제60권5호
    • /
    • pp.577-583
    • /
    • 2017
  • Objective : Laminoplasty is an effective surgical method for treating cervical degenerative disease. However, postoperative complications such as kyphosis, restriction of neck motion, and instability are often reported. Despite sufficient preoperative lordosis, this procedure often aggravates the lordotic curve of the cervical spine and straightens cervical alignment. Hence, it is important to examine preoperative risk factors associated with postoperative kyphotic alignment changes. Our study aimed to investigate preoperative radiologic parameters associated with kyphotic deformity post laminoplasty. Methods : We retrospectively reviewed the medical records of 49 patients who underwent open door laminoplasty for cervical spondylotic myelopathy (CSM) or ossification of the posterior longitudinal ligament (OPLL) at Pusan National University Yangsan Hospital between January 2011 and December 2015. Inclusion criteria were as follows : 1) preoperative diagnosis of OPLL or CSM, 2) no previous history of cervical spinal surgery, cervical trauma, tumor, or infection, 3) minimum of one-year follow-up post laminoplasty with proper radiologic examinations performed in outpatient clinics, and 4) cases showing C7 and T1 vertebral body in the preoperative cervical sagittal plane. The radiologic parameters examined included C2-C7 Cobb angles, T1 slope, C2-C7 sagittal vertical axis (SVA), range of motion (ROM) from C2-C7, segmental instability, and T2 signal change observed on magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). Clinical factors examined included preoperative modified Japanese Orthopedic Association scores, disease classification, duration of symptoms, and the range of operation levels. Results : Mean preoperative sagittal alignment was $13.01^{\circ}$ lordotic; $6.94^{\circ}$ lordotic postoperatively. Percentage of postoperative kyphosis was 80%. Patients were subdivided into two groups according to postoperative Cobb angle change; a control group (n=22) and kyphotic group (n=27). The kyphotic group consisted of patients with more than $5^{\circ}$ kyphotic angle change postoperatively. There were no differences in age, sex, C2-C7 Cobb angle, T1 slope, C2-C7 SVA, ROM from C2-C7, segmental instability, or T2 signal change. Multiple regression analysis revealed T1 slope had a strong relationship with postoperative cervical kyphosis. Likewise, correlation analysis revealed there was a statistical significance between T1 slope and postoperative Cobb angle change (p=0.035), and that there was a statistically significant relationship between T1 slope and C2-C7 SVA (p=0.001). Patients with higher preoperative T1 slope demonstrated loss of lordotic curvature postoperatively. Conclusion : Laminoplasty has a high probability of aggravating sagittal balance of the cervical spine. T1 slope is a good predictor of postoperative kyphotic changes of the cervical spine. Similarly, T1 slope is strongly correlated with C2-C7 SVA.

훈련함 탐색레이더 표적 속도 불안정 현상 개선에 관한 연구 (A Study on the improvement of ATH surveillance radar to solve the instability of the target velocity)

  • 이지혁;심민섭
    • 한국산학기술학회논문지
    • /
    • 제21권8호
    • /
    • pp.334-341
    • /
    • 2020
  • 훈련함 탐색레이더 최대 탐지거리 측정 운용시험평가 수행 중 탐색레이더 표적의 속도 및 침로 불안정 현상이 발생하여 표적에 대한 속도가 불안정하여 ◯◯knots로 접근하는 함정의 속도 편차가 ± 10knots 이상으로 정확한 표적 정보 산출이 불가하고 정보 불일치로 무장 교전 시 명중률 저하 및 표적관리 정확도 저하를 해결하기 위하여 속도 불안정 현상 개선에 대한 연구를 수행하였다. 이를 위해 4M1E에 근거한 Fishbone Diagram을 이용하여 9가지의 원인을 식별하였으며 가장 큰 원인으로 탐색레이더의 표적 처리 소프트웨어의 표적 처리 알고리즘으로 분석되었다. 본 연구에서는 기존 속도 산출 알고리즘을 검토하였으며, 표적 속도 불안정 현상의 원인이 되는 속도 안정화 필터 알고리즘과 안테나 회전수와의 영향성 검토를 수행하여 안테나 회전수 변경시 달라지는 𝜶, 𝞫값을 적용하지 못하는 문제점을 발견하여 이를 개선한 속도 안정화 필터 알고리즘을 표적 추적 관리 소프트웨어에 적용하였다. 본 개선사항에 대한 실선 시험을 통해 안테나 회전수 변경시에도 탐색레이더 표적 속도 정보가 일정하게 유지되는 개선 효과를 확인하였다.

이중분무 교차지역에서의 액적유동특성의 통계학적 분석에 관한 연구 (A Study on the Statistical Analysis of the Flow Characteristics of Droplet in the Cross Region of Twin Spray)

  • 조대진;윤석주;최태민
    • 대한기계학회논문집
    • /
    • 제18권3호
    • /
    • pp.635-644
    • /
    • 1994
  • This study investigated mainly on the flow characteristics of a droplet in the cross region of twin spray. The velocities of the droplet were measured along the axial and radial direction, and the flow characteristics of the droplet were statistically analyzed. For the statistical analysis, the probability density of the turbulent components has been studied, and then the Reynolds shear stress, the skewness and the flatness factors were calculated, and compared with the Gaussian value. Two pressure swirl stomizers were used for the twin spray system and kerosene was employed as the working liquid. 2-D PDA(particle dynamic analyzer) was used for the purpose of the measurement of droplet size and velocities. As a result, it was found that (1) the droplets collision was taken place strongly in the cross region. So, a large momentum loss of droplets due to the loss of natural movement direction was occurred, and momentum loss of radial direction was greater than that of axial direction. (2) The axial direction skewness factor approached to zero like the Gaussian distribution in the cross region of twin spray. (3) In the cross region of twin spray, the fluctuation instability of droplet was increased because of the development of the turbulence characteristics due to the droplet collision.

Linear regression analysis for factors influencing displacement of high-filled embankment slopes

  • Zhang, Guangcheng;Tan, Jiansong;Zhang, Lu;Xiang, Yong
    • Geomechanics and Engineering
    • /
    • 제8권4호
    • /
    • pp.511-521
    • /
    • 2015
  • It is a common failure type that high-filled embankment slope sideslips. The deformation mechanism and factors influencing the sideslip of embankment slope is the key to reduce the probability of this kind of engineering disaster. Taking Liujiawan high-filled embankment slope as an example, the deformation and failure characteristics of embankment slope and sheet-pile wall are studied, and the factors influencing instability are analyzed, then the correlation of deformation rate of the anti-slide plies and each factor is calculated with multivariate linear regression analysis. The result shows that: (1) The length of anchoring segment is not long enough, and displacement direction of embankment and retaining structure are perpendicular to the trend of the highway; (2) The length of the cantilever segment is so large that the active earth pressures behind the piles are very large. Additionally, the surface drainage is not smooth, which leads to form a potential sliding zone between bottom of the backfill and the primary surface; (3) The thickness of the backfill and the length of the anti-slide pile cantilever segment have positive correlation with the deformation whereas the thickness of anti-slide pile through mudstone has a negative correlation with the deformation. On the other hand the surface water is a little disadvantage on the embankment stability.

A Hybrid Active Queue Management for Stability and Fast Adaptation

  • Joo Chang-Hee;Bahk Sae-Woong;Lumetta Steven S.
    • Journal of Communications and Networks
    • /
    • 제8권1호
    • /
    • pp.93-105
    • /
    • 2006
  • The domination of the Internet by TCP-based services has spawned many efforts to provide high network utilization with low loss and delay in a simple and scalable manner. Active queue management (AQM) algorithms attempt to achieve these goals by regulating queues at bottleneck links to provide useful feedback to TCP sources. While many AQM algorithms have been proposed, most suffer from instability, require careful configuration of nonintuitive control parameters, or are not practical because of slow response to dynamic traffic changes. In this paper, we propose a new AQM algorithm, hybrid random early detection (HRED), that combines the more effective elements of recent algorithms with a random early detection (RED) core. HRED maps instantaneous queue length to a drop probability, automatically adjusting the slope and intercept of the mapping function to account for changes in traffic load and to keep queue length within the desired operating range. We demonstrate that straightforward selection of HRED parameters results in stable operation under steady load and rapid adaptation to changes in load. Simulation and implementation tests confirm this stability, and indicate that overall performances of HRED are substantially better than those of earlier AQM algorithms. Finally, HRED control parameters provide several intuitive approaches to trading between required memory, queue stability, and response time.