• 한국지리정보학회지
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• 제19권4호
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• pp.36-51
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• 2016

본 연구는 기후변화에 따른 도시홍수 리스크 평가를 위해 베이지안 확률통계 모형과 GIS를 연계 활용하였다. 리스크는 재난발생가능성과 영향 크기의 곱으로 평가될 수 있다. 본 연구는 베이지안 모델을 기반으로 침수발생가능성을 추정하였고, 기후변화 시나리오 정보를 반영하여 미래 침수발생가능성도 평가하였다. 침수로 발생할 수 있는 영향은 인명피해와 재산피해의 측면에서 살펴보았다. 서울시 서초구를 대상으로 분석한 결과, 현재 침수발생가능성은 하천에 인접하고, 주변지역보다 고도가 낮으며 불투수면 밀집지역인 서초동, 반포동 일대가 높게 나타났다. 미래 침수발생가능성 추정결과, 2050년의 위험지역 면적이 2030년보다 1.3배 증가하는 것으로 나타났다. 추정된 발생가능성을 활용한 리스크 평가 결과, 인명피해 리스크는 일반 및 고층 주거지역을 중심으로 높은 리스크를 보인 반면, 재산피해는 상업지역을 중심으로 리스크가 높게 나타났다. 2050년의 재산피해 리스크는 2030년의 재산피해 리스크보다 약 6.6% 증가하는 것으로 평가되었다. 본 연구에서 제안된 도시홍수 리스크 평가 기법은 상세한 공간결과 값의 제공으로 지역맞춤형 재해저감 전략을 위한 중요한 의사결정 자료로 활용될 수 있을 것으로 기대한다.

• 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국수자원학회 2022년도 학술발표회
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• pp.275-275
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• 2022

Tsunamis triggered by undersea earthquakes have the characteristic of longer wavelengths and can propagate a very long distance. Although the occurrence frequency of tsunami is low, it can cause casualties and properties. Historically, tsunamis that occurred on the western coast of Japan attacked the eastern coast of the Korean Peninsula and damaged the property and the loss of human life in 1983 and 1993. By tsunami in 1983 especially, 2 people were killed, and more than 200 casualties occurred. In addition, it caused 2 million dollars in property damage at Imwon Port. In 2011, The eastern cities of Japan: Iwate, Miyagi, Ibaraki, and Fukushima were damaged by a tsunami that occurred near onshore along the Pacific ocean and caused more than 300 billion dollars in property damage, and 20,000 casualties occurred. Moreover, those provoked nuclear power plant meltdown at Fukushima. In this study, it was carried out a relationship between maximum tsunami heights and fault parameters of earthquake: strike angle, dip angle, and slip angle at Imwon port. Those fault parameters are known that it does not relate to the magnitude of earthquake directly. Virtual tsunamis, which could be triggered by probable undersea earthquakes in the future, were investigated and mutual information based on probability and information theory was introduced to figure out the relationship between maximum tsunami height and fault parameters. Fault parameters were evaluated according to the strong relationship with maximum tsunami heights finally.

• Geomechanics and Engineering
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• 제8권5호
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• pp.631-647
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• 2015

Engineers may encounter unpredictable cavities, sinkholes and karst conduits while tunneling in karst area, and water inrush disaster frequently occurs and endanger the construction safety, resulting in huge casualties and economic loss. Therefore, an optimal classification method based on grey system theory (GST) is established and applied to accurately predict the occurrence probability of water inrush. Considering the weights of evaluation indices, an improved formula is applied to calculate the grey relational grade. Two evaluation indices systems are proposed for risk assessment of water inrush in design stage and construction stage, respectively, and the evaluation indices are quantitatively graded according to four risk grades. To verify the accuracy and feasibility of optimal classification method, comparisons of the evaluation results derived from the aforementioned method and attribute synthetic evaluation system are made. Furthermore, evaluation of engineering practice is carried through with the Xiakou Tunnel as a case study, and the evaluation result is generally in good agreement with the field-observed result. This risk assessment methodology provides a powerful tool with which engineers can systematically evaluate the risk of water inrush in karst tunnels.

• 한국재난정보학회 논문집
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• 제10권3호
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• pp.374-387
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• 2014

성폭력 범죄는 재범의 개연성이 높은 범죄이므로, 이에 대한 대책으로 도입된 것이 전자감독제도이다. 본 제도는 전자장치를 통해 피부착자의 위치를 24시간 파악할 수 있기 때문에 피부착자에게 심리적 정신적 압박감을 주어, 어느 정도는 범죄의 의도를 억제하는데 효과가 있다. 하지만 강력한 의지를 가진 범죄자들의 재범을 막는데 한계가 있다. 현재 연구 중인 차세대 지능형 전자발찌는 전자감독 대상자의 위치정보와 부착센서를 통한 행동 및 신체적 상태 변화 정보를 실시간으로 수집하고 분석한다. 이를 기반으로 범죄 발생의 징후를 사전에 예측하여 범죄의도를 사전에 차단하거나, 실행중인 범죄가 확대되기 전에 중지시키는 데 그 목적이 있다.

• 대한원격탐사학회:학술대회논문집
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• 대한원격탐사학회 2007년도 Proceedings of ISRS 2007
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• pp.294-297
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• 2007

Steam and advection fogs are frequently observed in the Yellow Sea located between Korea and China during the periods of March-April and June-July respectively. This study uses the remote sensing (RS) data for monitoring sea fog. Meteorological data obtained from the Ieodo Ocean Research Station provided an informative synopsis for the occurrence of steam and advection fogs through a ground truth. The RS data used in this study was GOES-9, MTSAT-1R images and QuikSCAT wind data. A dual channel difference (DCD) approach using IR and near-IR channel of GOES-9 and MTSAT-1R satellites was applied to estimate the extension of the sea fog. For the days examined, it was found that not only the DCD but also the texture-related measurement and the weak wind condition are required to separate the sea fog from the low cloud. The QuikSCAT wind is used to provide a weak wind area less than threshold under stable condition of the surface wind around a fog event. The Laplacian computation for a measurement of the homogeneity was designed. A new combined method of DCD, QuikSCAT wind speed and Laplacian was applied in the twelve cases with GOES-9 and MTSAT-1R. The threshold values for DCD, QuikSCAT wind speed and Laplacian are -2.0 K, 8 m $s^{-1}$ and 0.1, respectively. The validation methods such as Heidke skill score, probability of detection, probability of false detection, true skill score and odds ratio show that the new combined method improves the detection of sea fog rather than DCD method.

• 한국지리정보학회지
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• 제22권4호
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• pp.72-85
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• 2019

본 연구는 일상생활 가운데 누구나 겪을 수 있는 성폭력 범죄 위험의 예측을 목적으로 한다. 2011-2015년 5년 간 청주시 일부 지역에서 발생한 성폭력 범죄를 대상으로 베이지안 통계 기반의 Weight of Evidence를 적용·분석하였다. Weight of Evidence를 활용하여 분석한 결과 첫째, 투입된 관련요인(Evidence) 총 26개 중 주거용도면적, 건축물 사용승인일, 개별주택가격, 용적률, 지하층 수, 대지면적, 보안등, 오락시설 8개만이 신뢰도를 만족하여 각각의 가중치(Weight)가 산출되었다. 둘째, 가중치가 산출된 8개의 관련요인을 결합하여 최종적으로 예측 지도를 도출하였다. 성폭력 범죄가 발생할 위험이 75.5%인 지역은 대상지역 전체면적의 20.7%(2.0㎢)를 차지하였으며 16.5% 지역은 3.3%(0.3㎢), 34.5% 지역은 19.0%(1.8㎢)로 나타났다. 본 연구는 성폭력 범죄 위험의 발생 확률과 이를 감소시킬 수 있는 환경적 요인 또는 조건을 도출하였다. 이와 같은 결과는 경찰의 범죄예방 활동 등 성폭력 범죄 피해 최소화를 위한 선제적 대응방안 마련의 기초자료로서 활용될 수 있을 것이다.

• 대한원격탐사학회지
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• 제24권1호
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• pp.1-16
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• 2008

Steam and advection fogs are frequently observed in the Yellow Sea from March to July except for May. This study uses remote sensing (RS) data for the monitoring of sea fog. Meteorological data obtained from the Ieodo Ocean Research Station provided a valuable information for the occurrence of steam and advection fogs as a ground truth. The RS data used in this study were GOES-9, MTSAT-1R images and QuikSCAT wind data. A dual channel difference (DCD) approach using IR and shortwave IR channel of GOES-9 and MTSAT-1R satellites was applied to detect sea fog. The results showed that DCD, texture-related measurement and the weak wind condition are required to separate the sea fog from the low cloud. The QuikSCAT wind data was used to provide the wind speed criteria for a fog event. The laplacian computation was designed for a measurement of the homogeneity. A new combined method, which includes DCD, QuikSCAT wind speed and laplacian computation, was applied to the twelve cases with GOES-9 and MTSAT-1R. The threshold values for DCD, QuikSCAT wind speed and laplacian are -2.0 K, $8m\;s^{-1}$ and 0.1, respectively. The validation results showed that the new combined method slightly improves the detection of sea fog compared to DCD method: improvements of the new combined method are $5{\sim}6%$ increases in the Heidke skill score, 10% decreases in the probability of false detection, and $30{\sim}40%$ increases in the odd ratio.

• 한국인터넷방송통신학회논문지
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• 제18권5호
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• pp.203-208
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• 2018

본 논문에서는 지진에 의해 발생 가능한 시설물의 피해 유형 중에서 도시기반시설에 해당하는 전력시설물과 배전시설물을 선정하였고 피해 여부를 산출해내는 방식에 대해 연구를 진행하였다. 피해여부를 산출하기 위해 시설물의 유형과 종류에 따라 취약률을 산출할 수 있는 취약률 곡선 산출식을 적용시켜 피해 규모에 따른 그래프를 산출해 내었다. 산출 결과를 활용하기 위해서 도시기반시설에 지진 발생 상황을 가정하고 지진의 규모와 최대지진가속도에 따른 피해 발생 확률을 취약률 형태로 나타내었다. 또한 산출된 취약률을 정수 형태로 변환하는 방식인 취약률 정량화 방식을 적용시켜 피해 규모에 대한 상수 값을 나타내었다. 본 논문에서 적용한 방식과 같은 연구가 지속될 경우 지진 발생 시 피해를 입는 시설물의 유형을 미리 파악하고 피해를 절감하기 위한 대응을 할 수 있을 것이다.

• The Plant Pathology Journal
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• 제31권4호
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• pp.350-362
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• 2015

A disease forecast model for bacterial grain rot (BGR) of rice, which is caused by Burkholderia glumae, was developed in this study. The model, which was named 'BGRcast', determined daily conduciveness of weather conditions to epidemic development of BGR and forecasted risk of BGR development. All data that were used to develop and validate the BGRcast model were collected from field observations on disease incidence at Naju, Korea during 1998-2004 and 2010. In this study, we have proposed the environmental conduciveness as a measure of conduciveness of weather conditions for population growth of B. glumae and panicle infection in the field. The BGRcast calculated daily environmental conduciveness, $C_i$, based on daily minimum temperature and daily average relative humidity. With regard to the developmental stages of rice plants, the epidemic development of BGR was divided into three phases, i.e., lag, inoculum build-up and infection phases. Daily average of $C_i$ was calculated for the inoculum build-up phase ($C_{inf}$) and the infection phase ($C_{inc}$). The $C_{inc}$ and $C_{inf}$ were considered environmental conduciveness for the periods of inoculum build-up in association with rice plants and panicle infection during the heading stage, respectively. The BGRcast model was able to forecast actual occurrence of BGR at the probability of 71.4% and its false alarm ratio was 47.6%. With the thresholds of $C_{inc}=0.3$ and $C_{inf}=0.5$, the model was able to provide advisories that could be used to make decisions on whether to spray bactericide at the preand post-heading stage.

• 한국물환경학회지
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• 제39권1호
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• pp.9-19
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• 2023

Drought is a natural disaster that can have serious social impacts. Drought's impact ranges from water supply for humans to ecosystems, but the impact of drought on river water quality requires careful investigation. In general, drought occurs meteorologically and is classified as agricultural drought, hydrological drought, and environmental drought. In this study, the BOD environmental drought is defined using the bivariate copula joint probability distribution model between the meteorological drought index and the river BOD, and based on this, the environmental drought condition index (EDCI-BOD) was proposed. The results of examining the proposed index using past precipitation and BOD observation data showed that EDCI-BOD expressed environmental drought well in terms of river BOD water quality. In addition, by classifying the calculated EDCI-BOD into four levels, namely, 'attention', 'caution', 'alert', and 'seriousness', a practical monitoring stage for environmental drought of BOD was constructed. We further estimated the sensitivity of the stream BOD to meteorological drought, and through this, we could identify the stream section in which the stream BOD responded relatively more sensitively to the occurrence of meteorological drought. The results of this study are expected to provide information necessary for river BOD management in the event of meteorological droughts.