• Title/Summary/Keyword: probability of collapse

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On the Evaluation of the dynamic Safety of the Ship's Cargo at Sea (항해중 선박 적재화물의 동적 안정성 평가에 관한 연구)

  • 김철승;김순갑
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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    • v.3 no.1
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    • pp.33-49
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    • 1997
  • One of the most important missons that are imposed on merchant ship at sea is to accomplish the safe transportation of cargo loaded. Recently, a study on the seakeeping performance has been carried out on the development of evaluation system related to the synthetic safety of a ship at sea. The seakeeping performance is the ship's ability sailing at, and executing its misson against adverse environmental factors successfully and safely. Until now, however, there has not been any method of quantitative evaluation on the dynamic safety of the ship's cargo loaded. In this regards, this paper has introduced the evaluation method of dynamic safety of the ship's cargo. In order to evaluate the dynamic safety of cargo, the vertical and lateral acceleration which causes the collapse, racking and local structure failure of cargo was adopted as the evaluation factors in the ship's motions. The response amplitude of ship's motions in regular waves is manipulated by NSM (New Strip Method) on a given 2,700 TEU full container vessel under the wind forces of 7, 8 and 9 Beaufort scale. Each response of ship's motions induced by NSM was applied to short-crested irregular waves for stochastic process on evaluation factors and then vertical and lateral acceleration of each cargo was compared with significant amplitude of each acceleration. A representative dangerous factor was determined by comparing permissible values of stacking and racking forces occurred typically to the vertical and transverse directions with the container strength required on ISO 1496 at the positions of forecastle, poop and ship's midship respectively. Through the occurrence probability of the determined factor by Rayleigh's probability density function, the dangerousness which limits loads on container's side wall as an evaluation was applied in judging of the danger of the ship's cargo loaded.

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Markov-based time-varying risk assessment of the subway station considering mainshock and aftershock hazards

  • Wei Che;Pengfei Chang;Mingyi Sun
    • Earthquakes and Structures
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.303-316
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    • 2023
  • Rapid post-earthquake damage estimation of subway stations is particularly necessary to improve short-term crisis management and safety measures of urban subway systems after a destructive earthquake. The conventional Performance-Based Earthquake Engineering (PBEE) framework with constant earthquake occurrence rate is invalid to estimate the aftershock risk because of the time-varying rate of aftershocks and the uncertainty of mainshock-damaged state before the occurrence of aftershocks. This study presents a time-varying probabilistic seismic risk assessment framework for underground structures considering mainshock and aftershock hazards. A discrete non-omogeneous Markov process is adopted to quantify the time-varying nature of aftershock hazard and the uncertainties of structural damage states following mainshock. The time-varying seismic risk of a typical rectangular frame subway station is assessed under mainshock-only (MS) hazard and mainshock-aftershock (MSAS) hazard. The results show that the probabilities of exceeding same limit states over the service life under MSAS hazard are larger than the values under MS hazard. For the same probability of exceedance, the higher response demands are found when aftershocks are considered. As the severity of damage state for the station structure increases, the difference of the probability of exceedance increases when aftershocks are considered. PSDR=1.0% is used as the collapse prevention performance criteria for the subway station is reasonable for both the MS hazard and MSAS hazard. However, if the effect of aftershock hazard is neglected, it can significantly underestimate the response demands and the uncertainties of potential damage states for the subway station over the service life.

Site specific fragility modification factor for mid-rise RC buildings based on plastic energy dissipation

  • Merin Mathews;B.R. Jayalekshmi;Katta Venkataramana
    • Earthquakes and Structures
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    • v.27 no.4
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    • pp.331-344
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    • 2024
  • The performance of reinforced concrete buildings subjected to earthquake excitations depends on the structural behaviour of the superstructure as well as the type of foundation and the properties of soil on which the structure is founded. The consideration of the effects due to the interaction between the structure and soil- foundation alters the seismic response of reinforced concrete buildings subjected to earthquake motion. Evaluation of the structural response of buildings for quantitative assessment of the seismic fragility has been a demanding problem for the engineers. Present research deals with development of fragility curve for building specific vulnerability assessment based on different damage parameters considering the effect of soil-structure interaction. Incremental Dynamic Analysis of fixed base and flexible base RC building models founded on different soil conditions was conducted using finite element software. Three sets of fragility curves were developed with maximum roof displacement, inter storey drift and plastic energy dissipated as engineering demand parameters. The results indicated an increase in the likelihood of exceeding various damage limits by 10-40% for flexible base condition with soft soil profiles. Fragility curve based on energy dissipated showed a higher probability of exceedance for collapse prevention damage limit whereas for lower damage states, conventional methods showed higher probability of exceedance. With plastic energy dissipated as engineering demand parameter, it is possible to track down the intensity of earthquake at which the plastic deformation starts, thereby providing an accurate vulnerability assessment of the structure. Fragility modification factors that enable the transformation of existing fragility curves to account for Soil-Structure Interaction effects based on different damage measures are proposed for different soil conditions to facilitate a congenial vulnerability assessment for buildings with flexible base conditions.

A Reliability Analysis of a Guyed Tower (Guyed Tower의 신뢰성 해석)

  • Tae-B.,Ha;Hang-S.,Choi
    • Bulletin of the Society of Naval Architects of Korea
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.29-35
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    • 1987
  • As offshore activities move into deeper ocean, conventional fixed-base platforms drastically increase in size and cost, One of alternatives available is a guyed tower, in which environmental loads are supported by guylines instead of structural members. The guying system of the guyed tower is designed on one hand to be stiff enough to limit the structural displacement in normal operations, but on the other hand to be soft enough to permit large slow sways during the presence of design-level storms. This compliancy provides an efficient means of withstanding harsh environment so that the disproportionate increase in size of deep water platforms can be kept to a rational limit. Novel configurations contain always some degrees of potential risks mainly due to the lack of experience. The most critical hazard inherent to a guyed tower may be the pullout of anchor piles. Once it happens, the guyline fails to function and it may eventually lead to the total collapse of the system. It is the aim of this paper to discuss and quantify the anchor-pullout risk of a guyed tower. A stochastic analysis is made for evaluating the first-upcrossing probability of the tension acting on anchor piles over the uplift capacity. Nonlinearities involved in the mooring stiffness and hydrodynamics are taken into account by using time-domain analysis. A simplified two dimensional dynamic model is developed to exemplify the underlying concept. Real hurricane data in the Gulf of Mexico spanning over 70 years are incorporated in a numerical example of which result clearly indicates highly potential risk of anchor pullout.

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Effect of sequential earthquakes on evaluation of non-linear response of 3D RC MRFs

  • Oggu, Praveen;Gopikrishna, K.
    • Earthquakes and Structures
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    • v.20 no.3
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    • pp.279-293
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    • 2021
  • Most of the existing seismic codes for RC buildings consider only a scenario earthquake for analysis, often characterized by the response spectrum at the specified location. However, any real earthquake event often involves occurrences of multiple earthquakes within a few hours or days, possessing similar or even higher energy than the first earthquake. This critically impairs the rehabilitation measures thereby resulting in the accumulation of structural damages for subsequent earthquakes after the first earthquake. Also, the existing seismic provisions account for the non-linear response of an RC building frame implicitly by specifying a constant response modification factor (R) in a linear elastic design. However, the 'R' specified does not address the changes in structural configurations of RC moment-resisting frames (RC MRFs) viz., building height, number of bays present, bay width, irregularities arising out of mass and stiffness changes, etc. resulting in changed dynamic characteristics of the structural system. Hence, there is an imperative need to assess the seismic performance under sequential earthquake ground motions, considering the adequacy of code-specified 'R' in the representation of dynamic characteristics of RC buildings. Therefore, the present research is focused on the evaluation of the non-linear response of medium-rise 3D RC MRFs with and without vertical irregularities under bi-directional sequential earthquake ground motions using non-linear dynamic analysis. It is evident from the results that collapse probability increases, and 'R' reduces significantly for various RC MRFs subjected to sequential earthquakes, pronouncing the vulnerability and inadequacy of estimation of design base shear by code-specified 'R' under sequential earthquakes.

AN ANALYTICAL ASSESSMENT OF THE SINKING OP THE M.V. DERBYSHIRE

  • Faulkner, D.
    • Journal of Ship and Ocean Technology
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    • v.6 no.4
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    • pp.19-76
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    • 2002
  • The author was appointed by the UK Department of Transport as a fellow Assessor with R. A. Williams during Lord Donaldson's Assessment (1995) of the loss of the OBO ship DERBYSHIRE and in 1996 as a UK Assessor for the planning and surveys of the wreck. He relinquished his appointment in October 1997 and was not thereafter Involved in the review and analysis of data gathered. This paper may be considered to be complementary to the reports of the UK and EC Assessors (Williams and Torchio, 1998a and 1998b) which followed that review and analysis. The paper deals with the history and loss of the ship, Including the concept developed in 1995 of 13 possible loss scenarios in a formal safety Risk Matrix of probability and seriousness. It analyses abnormal wave effects on hatch cover collapse, on ship bending, and on flooding of bow spaces and no. 1 hold. The implosion-explosion mechanics during sinking is outlined to explain the devastation of the wreck. The 1996 and 1997 underwater surveys are outlined as are the findings of fact. Each of the final 14 loss scenarios is analysed in the light of the firm and circumstantial survey evidence, plus many other factors of survey experience, analyses and experiments. The updated Risk Matrix speaks for itself and leads to the prime conclusions and major recommendations.

Integrity Assessment of Sharp Flaw in CANDU Pressure Tube Using Probabilistic Fracture Mechanics (확률론적 파괴역학을 도입한 CANDU 압력관의 예리한 결함에 대한 건전성평가)

  • Lee, Jun-Seong;Gwak, Sang-Rok;Kim, Yeong-Jin;Park, Yun-Won
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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    • v.26 no.4
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    • pp.653-659
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    • 2002
  • This paper describes a probabilistic fracture mechanics(PFM) analysis based on Monte Carlo(MC) simulation. In the analysis of CANDU pressure tube, the depth and aspect ratio of an initial semi-elliptical surface crack, a fracture toughness value and delayed hydride cracking(DHC) velocity are assumed to be probabilistic variables. As an example, some failure probabilities of piping and CANDU pressure tube are calculated using MC method with the stratified sampling MC technique, taking analysis conditions of normal operations. In the stratified MC simulation, a sampling space of probabilistic variables is divided into a number of small cells. For the verification of analysis results, a comparison study of the PFM analysis using other commercial code is carried out and a good agreement was observed between those results.

Application of Buckling Restrained Braces in a 50-Storey Building

  • Sy, Jose A.;Anwar, Naveed;Aung, Thaung Htut;Rayamajhi, Deepak
    • International Journal of High-Rise Buildings
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    • v.3 no.1
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    • pp.81-87
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    • 2014
  • The use of Buckling Restrained Braces (BRB) for enhancing the performance of the buildings is gaining wider acceptance. This paper presents the first application of these devices in a major high-rise building in the Philippines. A 50-storey residential reinforced concrete building tower, with ductile core wall, with BRB system is investigated. The detailed modeling and design procedure of buckling restrained brace system is presented for the optimal design against the two distinct levels of earthquake ground motions; serviceable behavior for frequent earthquakes and very low probability of collapse under extremely rare earthquakes. The stiffness and strength of the buckling restrained brace system are adjusted to optimize the performance of the structural system under different levels of earthquakes. Response spectrum analysis is conducted for Design Basis Earthquake level and Service level, while nonlinear time history analysis is performed for the most credible earthquake. The case study results show the effectiveness of buckling restrained braces.

Behaviour of Pulsating Flow in the Jetflow Region through Cylindrical Chokes (원통형 초크의 분류영역에서 맥동유동의 거동)

  • Moh, Y.W.;Yoo, Y.T.;Hong, S.S.;Wee, K.H.
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Automotive Engineers
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    • v.3 no.5
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    • pp.47-55
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    • 1995
  • Cylindrical chokes are used widely as components of hydraulic equipments. The dynamic charac teristics between flowrate and pressure drop through the cylindrical chokes were discussed by the frequency characteristics of the chokes. It was assumed no pressure recovery occured at the downstream neighborhood of the choke. The pulsating jetflow from outlet of cylindrical chokes shows very complex behaviours which are quite different from the steady jetflow but it is not clarified quantitatively. In order to utilize the chokes as a flowmeter, it is indispensable to discuss the estimation of the dynamics of pressure drop in the downstream jetflow region of cylindrical chokes. In this experimental study, the dynamic behaviours of the jetflow in the downstream region of cylindrical chokes are investigated precisely by using flow visualization. In the results of experimental sutdy, it is clarified that the retachment length depended on pressure wave is compared with it depended on velocity wave.

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Effects of Operational Condition and Sea States on Wave-Induced Bending Moments of Large Merchant Vessels (운항조건 및 해상상태가 대형 화물선의 파랑 중 굽힘모멘트에 미치는 영향)

  • 김동문;백점기
    • Journal of the Society of Naval Architects of Korea
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    • v.40 no.5
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    • pp.60-67
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    • 2003
  • For risk or reliability assessment of ship structures against particular hazardous situations such as total loss or sinking due to hull girder collapse, the short-term based response analysis rather than the long-term response analysis is required to determine wave-induced bending moments when the ship encounters a storm of specific duration and with a specified small encounter probability. In the present study, the effects of operational condition and sea states on wave-induced bending moments of large merchant vessels are investigated. A series of the short-term response analyses for a hypothetical VLCC and a Capesize bulk carrier (CSBC) are carried out with varying operational condition and sea states which include ship speed, significant wave height and wave persistence time, using the linear-strip theory based program ABS/SHIPMOTION and the MIT sea-keeping tables. The computed results are also compared with the IACS design formula predictions. The results and insights developed from the present study are summarized.