• Title/Summary/Keyword: probability of collapse

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System Reliability Analysis of Midship Sections (선체 중앙 횡단면의 시스템 신뢰성해석)

  • Y.S. Yang;Y.S. Suh
    • Journal of the Society of Naval Architects of Korea
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    • v.30 no.1
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    • pp.115-124
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    • 1993
  • A structural system reliability analysis is studied for the safety assessment of midship section. Probabilistically dominant collapse modes are generated by Element Replacement Method and Incrimental Load Method. In order to avoid generating the same modes repeatedly, it is branched at final plastic hinge. Using first and second order bound methods, system failure probability of midship section is computed and compared with deterministic load factor method to show the usefulness of the proposed method.

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Application of Arbitrary Lagrangian-Eulerian Technique for Air Explosion Structural Analysis for Naval Ships Using LS-DYNA

  • Kim Jae-Hyun;Shin Hyung-Cheol;Park Myung-Kyu
    • Journal of Ship and Ocean Technology
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    • v.9 no.1
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    • pp.38-46
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    • 2005
  • Survivability improvement method for naval ship design has been continually developed. In order to design naval ships considering survivability, it is demanded that designers should establish reasonable damage conditions by air explosion. Explosion may induce local damage as well as global collapse to the ship. Therefore possible damage conditions should be realistically estimated in the design stage. In this study the authors used ALE technique, one of the structure-fluid interaction techniques, to simulate air explosion and investigated survival capability of damaged naval ships. Lagrangian-Eulerian coupling algorithm, equation of the state for explosive and air, and simple calculation method for explosive loading were also reviewed. It is shown that air explosion analysis using ALE technique can evaluate structural damage after being attacked. This procedure can be applied to the real structural design quantitatively by calculating surviving time and probability.

A Study on FAD Development for Probabilistic Pressure Tube Integrity Assessment (압력관의 확률론적평가에 타당한 파손평가선도 작성에 관한 연구)

  • Kwak, Sang-Log;Wang, Jong-Bae;Choi, Young-Hwan;Park, Youn-Won
    • Proceedings of the KSME Conference
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    • 2003.11a
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    • pp.1211-1215
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    • 2003
  • Pressure tubes are major component of nuclear reactor, but only selected samples are periodically examined due to numerous numbers of tubes. Current in-service inspection result show there is high probability of flaw existence at un-inspected pressure tube. Probabilistic analysis is applied in this study for the integrity assessment of un-inspected pressure tube. But all the current integrity evaluations procedures are based on conventional deterministic approaches. So many integrity evaluation parameters are not directly apply to probabilistic analysis. As a result of this study failure assessment diagram are proposed based on test data.

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Reliability analysis of tunnel face stability considering seepage effects and strength conditions

  • Park, Jun Kyung
    • Geomechanics and Engineering
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    • v.29 no.3
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    • pp.331-338
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    • 2022
  • Face stability analyses provides the most probable failure mechanisms and the understanding about parameters that need to be considered for the evaluation of ground movements caused by tunneling. After the Upper Bound Method (UBM) solution which can consider the influence of seepage forces and depth-dependent effective cohesion is verified with the numerical experiments, the probabilistic model is proposed to calculate the unbiased limiting tunnel collapse pressure. A reliability analysis of a shallow circular tunnel driven by a pressurized shield in a frictional and cohesive soil is presented to consider the inherent uncertainty in the input parameters and the proposed model. The probability of failure that exceeding a specified applied pressure at the tunnel face is estimated. Sensitivity and importance measures are computed to identify the key parameters and random variables in the model.

A new methodology development for flood fragility curve derivation considering structural deterioration for bridges

  • Lee, Jaebeom;Lee, Young-Joo;Kim, Hyunjun;Sim, Sung-Han;Kim, Jin-Man
    • Smart Structures and Systems
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    • v.17 no.1
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    • pp.149-165
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    • 2016
  • Floods have been known to be one of the main causes of bridge collapse. Contrary to earthquakes, flood events tend to occur repeatedly and more frequently in rainfall areas; flood-induced damage and collapse account for a significant portion of disasters in many countries. Nevertheless, in contrast to extensive research on the seismic fragility analysis for civil infrastructure, relatively little attention has been devoted to the flood-related fragility. The present study proposes a novel methodology for deriving flood fragility curves for bridges. Fragility curves are generally derived by means of structural reliability analysis, and structural failure modes are defined as excessive demands of the displacement ductility of a bridge under increased water pressure resulting from debris accumulation and structural deterioration, which are known to be the primary causes of bridge failures during flood events. Since these bridge failure modes need to be analyzed through sophisticated structural analysis, flood fragility curve derivation that would require repeated finite element analyses may take a long time. To calculate the probability of flood-induced failure of bridges efficiently, in the proposed framework, the first order reliability method (FORM) is employed for reducing the required number of finite element analyses. In addition, two software packages specialized for reliability analysis and finite element analysis, FERUM (Finite Element Reliability Using MATLAB) and ABAQUS, are coupled so that they can exchange their inputs and outputs during structural reliability analysis, and a Python-based interface for FERUM and ABAQUS is newly developed to effectively coordinate the fragility analysis. The proposed framework of flood fragility analysis is applied to an actual reinforced concrete bridge in South Korea to demonstrate the detailed procedure of the approach.

Implementation of Popular Radon Detector Using Pin Photodiode (핀 포토다이오드를 이용한 보급형 라돈 검출기의 구현)

  • Yun, Sung-Ha;Kim, Jae-Hak;Kim, Gyu-Sik
    • Journal of the Institute of Electronics and Information Engineers
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    • v.53 no.11
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    • pp.99-106
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    • 2016
  • When radon is staying at alveoli and bronchial tubes, the collapse of radon creates progeny nuclides (alpha ray, beta ray, gamma ray, etc.). They emit radiation causing a mutation in the chromosome of the cell, resulting in lung cancer. In other words, the main cause of lung cancer is radiation emitting as the result of radon collapse rather than radon gas. The 82% of radiation exposed to people is the natural radiation. Most of the natural radiation is radon. If we properly control the concentration of radon indoors, the probability of occurrence of lung cancer could be decreases to be 70%. Until now, to measure the indoor radon concentration, imported radon sensors are needed. So, DB construction of indoor radon emission and popular radon measuring apparatus should be developed. In this paper, we propose the radon detecting method using PIN photodiode. Also, we confirmed the PIN photodiode could be used as radon sensor module through some experimental studies.

Ship Collision Risk Analysis of Bridge Piers (선박충돌로 인한 교각의 위험도 분석)

  • Lee, Seong-Lo;Bae, Yong-Gwi
    • Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
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    • v.9 no.4
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    • pp.169-176
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    • 2005
  • An analysis of the annual frequency of collapse(AF) is performed for each bridge pier exposed to ship collision. From this analysis, the impact lateral resistance can be determined for each pier. The bridge pier impact resistance is selected using a probability-based analysis procedure in which the predicted annual frequency of bridge collapse, AF, from the ship collision risk assessment is compared to an acceptance criterion. The analysis procedure is an iterative process in which a trial impact resistance is selected for a bridge component and a computed AF is compared to the acceptance criterion, and revisions to the analysis variables are made as necessary to achieve compliance. The distribution of the AF acceptance criterion among the exposed piers is generally based on the designer's judgment. In this study, the acceptance criterion is allocated to each pier using allocation weights based on the previous predictions.

Evaluation of Response Modification Factors for Steel Moment Frame Buildings Subjected to Seismic Loads (지진 하중을 받는 철골 모멘트 골조 빌딩에 대한 반응수정계수의 평가)

  • Lee, Kihak;Woo, Sungwoo
    • Journal of Korean Society of Steel Construction
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    • v.18 no.5
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    • pp.585-596
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    • 2006
  • This study focuses on the seismic behavior of 3-, 9-, and 20-story steel moment resisting frame (MRF) structures designed in accordance with the 2000 International Building Code using different Response Modification factors (R factors), i.e., 8, 9, 10, 11, and 12. For a detailed case study, 30 different structures were evaluated for 20 ground motions representing the hazard level, which is equal to a 2% probability in 50 years (2% in 50 years). The results showed that the current R factors provide conservative designs for the 3- and 9-story buildings for the Collapse Prevention performance objective. the 20-story buildings, which were designed without using the minimum requirement of spectral acceleration CS prescribed in IBC 2000, did not satisfy the seismic performance for Collapse Prevention performance.

Ship Collision Risk Assessment for Bridges (교량의 선박충돌위험도 평가)

  • Lee, Seong Lo;Bae, Yong Gwi
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.26 no.1A
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    • pp.1-9
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    • 2006
  • An analysis of the annual frequency of collapse(AF) is performed for each bridge pier exposed to ship collision. From this analysis, the impact lateral resistance can be determined for each pier. The bridge pier impact resistance is selected using a probability-based analysis procedure in which the predicted annual frequency of bridge collapse, AF, from the ship collision risk assessment is compared to an acceptance criterion. The analysis procedure is an iterative process in which a trial impact resistance is selected for a bridge component and a computed AF is compared to the acceptance criterion, and revisions to the analysis variables are made as necessary to achieve compliance. The distribution of the AF acceptance criterion among the exposed piers is generally based on the designer's judgment. In this study, the acceptance criterion is allocated to each pier using allocation weights based on the previous predictions. To determine the design impact lateral resistance of bridge components such pylon and pier, the numerical analysis is performed iteratively with the analysis variable of impact resistance ratio of pylon to pier. The design impact lateral resistance can vary greatly among the components of the same bridge, depending upon the waterway geometry, available water depth, bridge geometry, and vessel traffic characteristics. More researches on the allocation model of AF and the determination of impact resistance are required.

Probabilistic Assesment of the Effects of Vapor Cloud Explosion on a Human Body (증기운 폭발이 인체에 미치는 영향에 대한 확률론적 평가)

  • Yoon, Yong-Kyun;Ju, Eun-Hye
    • Tunnel and Underground Space
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    • v.31 no.1
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    • pp.52-65
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    • 2021
  • In this study, authors analyzed the vapor cloud explosion induced by propane leak at the PEMIX Terminal, which is the propane storage facility outside of Mexico City. TNT equivalence mass for the leaked 4750 kg propane was estimated to be 9398 kg. Blast parameters such as peak overpressure, positive phase duration, and impact at 40-400 (m) away from the center of the explosion were calculated by applying TNT Equivalency Method and Multi-Energy Method. The probability of damage due to lung damage, eardrum rupture, head impact, and whole-body displacement impact by applying the probit function obtained using blast parameters was evaluated. The peak overpressure obtained using Multi-Energy Method was found to be greater than the peak overpressure obtained by applying the TNT Equivalency Method at all distances considered, but it was evaluated that there was no significant difference from the points above 200 m. The peak overpressure obtained by Multi-Energy Method was computed to assess the extent of damage to the structure, and it was shown that structures within 100 m of the explosion center would collapse completely, and that the glasses of the structures 400 m away would be almost broken. The probability of death due to lung damage was shown to vary depending on a human body's position located in the propagating direction of shock wave, and if there is a reflecting surface in the immediate surroundings of a human body, the probability of death was estimated to be the greatest. The impact of shock wave on lung damage, eardrum rupture, head impact, and whole-body displacement impact was evaluated and found to affect whole-body impact < lung damage < eardrum rupture