• Title/Summary/Keyword: probability distributions

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Comparisons of 1-Hour-Averaged Surface Temperatures from High-Resolution Reanalysis Data and Surface Observations (고해상도 재분석자료와 관측소 1시간 평균 지상 온도 비교)

  • Song, Hyunggyu;Youn, Daeok
    • Journal of the Korean earth science society
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    • v.41 no.2
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    • pp.95-110
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    • 2020
  • Comparisons between two different surface temperatures from high-resolution ECMWF ReAnalysis 5 (ERA5) and Automated Synoptic Observing System (ASOS) observations were performed to investigate the reliability of the new reanalysis data over South Korea. As ERA5 has been recently produced and provided to the public, it will be highly used in various research fields. The analysis period in this study is limited to 1999-2018 because regularly recorded hourly data have been provided for 61 ASOS stations since 1999. Topographic characteristics of the 61 ASOS locations are classified as inland, coastal, and mountain based on Digital Elevation Model (DEM) data. The spatial distributions of whole period time-averaged temperatures for ASOS and ERA5 were similar without significant differences in their values. Scatter plots between ASOS and ERA5 for three different periods of yearlong, summer, and winter confirmed the characteristics of seasonal variability, also shown in the time-series of monthly error probability density functions (PDFs). Statistical indices NMB, RMSE, R, and IOA were adopted to quantify the temperature differences, which showed no significant differences in all indices, as R and IOA were all close to 0.99. In particular, the daily mean temperature differences based on 1-hour-averaged temperature had a smaller error than the classical daily mean temperature differences, showing a higher correlation between the two data. To check if the complex topography inside one ERA5 grid cell is related to the temperature differences, the kurtosis and skewness values of 90-m DEM PDFs in a ERA5 grid cell were compared to the one-year period amplitude among those of the power spectrum in the time-series of monthly temperature error PDFs at each station, showing positive correlations. The results account for the topographic effect as one of the largest possible drivers of the difference between ASOS and ERA5.

Development of Evaluation Model for ITS Project using the Probabilistic Risk Analysis (확률적 위험도분석을 이용한 ITS사업의 경제성평가모형)

  • Lee, Yong-Taeck;Nam, Doo-Hee;Lim, Kang-Won
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.23 no.3 s.81
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    • pp.95-108
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    • 2005
  • The purpose of this study is to develop the ITS evaluation model using the Probabilistic Risk Analysis (PRA) methodology and to demonstrate the goodness-of-fit of the large ITS projects through the comparative analysis between DEA and PRA model. The results of this study are summarized below. First, the evaluation mode] using PRA with Monte-Carlo Simulation(MCS) and Latin-Hypercube Sampling(LHS) is developed and applied to one of ITS projects initiated by local government. The risk factors are categorized with cost, benefit and social-economic factors. Then, PDF(Probability Density Function) parameters of these factors are estimated. The log-normal distribution, beta distribution and triangular distribution are well fitted with the market and delivered price. The triangular and uniform distributions are valid in benefit data from the simulation analysis based on the several deployment scenarios. Second, the decision making rules for the risk analysis of projects for cost and economic feasibility study are suggested. The developed PRA model is applied for the Daejeon metropolitan ITS model deployment project to validate the model. The results of cost analysis shows that Deterministic Project Cost(DPC), Deterministic Total Project Cost(DTPC) is the biased percentile values of CDF produced by PRA model and this project need Contingency Budget(CB) because these values are turned out to be less than Target Value(TV;85% value), Also, this project has high risk of DTPC and DPC because the coefficient of variation(C.V) of DTPC and DPC are 4 and 15 which are less than that of DTPC(19-28) and DPC(22-107) in construction and transportation projects. The results of economic analysis shows that total system and subsystem of this project is in type II, which means the project is economically feasible with high risk. Third, the goodness-of-fit of PRA model is verified by comparing the differences of the results between PRA and DEA model. The difference of evaluation indices is up to 68% in maximum. Because of this, the deployment priority of ITS subsystems are changed in each mode1. In results. ITS evaluation model using PRA considering the project risk with the probability distribution is superior to DEA. It makes proper decision making and the risk factors estimated by PRA model can be controlled by risk management program suggested in this paper. Further research not only to build the database of deployment data but also to develop the methodologies estimating the ITS effects with PRA model is needed to broaden the usage of PRA model for the evaluation of ITS projects.

Validation of Food Intake Frequency from Food Frequency Questionnaire for Use as a Covariate in a Model to Estimate Usual Food Intake (식품의 일상섭취량 추정을 위한 식품섭취빈도의 활용가능성 및 타당도 연구)

  • Lee, Ja Yoon;Kim, Dong Woo
    • Culinary science and hospitality research
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    • v.23 no.2
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    • pp.64-73
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    • 2017
  • Although 24-hour recalls (24HR) capture detailed information on a person's food intake, this method suffers from difficulties in adequately measuring the usual intake of foods that are not consumed daily by most. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to investigate whether frequency of Food Frequency Questionnaire (FFQ) can be utilized in form of covariate when calculating usual intake of episodically-consumed foods and their distributions. Data used in this study was from the Korean National Healthy and Nutrition Examination Survey (KNHANES) 2012~2014 (3 years) and 10,945 subjects participated in this survey who performed both of 24HR and FFQ. In order to analyze the data, amount of intake in each food, which was reported in 24HR was recalculated according to 112 items in FFQ. We first assessed the relationship between FFQ frequency and the amount reported on 24HR. Second, we assessed the relationship between usual portion size of FFQ and the amount reported on 24HR. Our hypothesis was that people who reported high FFQ-reported frequency or FFQ-reported usual portion size would consume larger amounts of that food on 24HR than those with lower frequency or portion size of consumption of a food on the FFQ. For 59 of 112 individual foods (52.2%), there were statistically significant increasing relationships between FFQ frequency and consumption-day intake. Also, 102 of 112 individual foods (90.3%), there were statistically significant increasing relationships between FFQ usual portion size and consumption-day intake. For 10 of 13 food groups (grains, fruits, eggs, pulses, root and tuber crops, milk products, meat, beverage, alcoholic drink, vegetable, seaweeds and others), there were statistically significant increasing relationships between FFQ frequency and consumption-day intake. And there were statistically significant increasing relationships between FFQ usual portion size and consumption-day intake for all food groups. This study confirmed consistent correlation between reported FFQ frequency or usual portion size of food (group) consumption and consumption-day intake on 24HR. Therefore the frequency data may be utilized as important covariate when estimating usual intake of food or food groups.

Development of the Multi-Parametric Mapping Software Based on Functional Maps to Determine the Clinical Target Volumes (임상표적체적 결정을 위한 기능 영상 기반 생물학적 인자 맵핑 소프트웨어 개발)

  • Park, Ji-Yeon;Jung, Won-Gyun;Lee, Jeong-Woo;Lee, Kyoung-Nam;Ahn, Kook-Jin;Hong, Se-Mie;Juh, Ra-Hyeong;Choe, Bo-Young;Suh, Tae-Suk
    • Progress in Medical Physics
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    • v.21 no.2
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    • pp.153-164
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    • 2010
  • To determine the clinical target volumes considering vascularity and cellularity of tumors, the software was developed for mapping of the analyzed biological clinical target volumes on anatomical images using regional cerebral blood volume (rCBV) maps and apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) maps. The program provides the functions for integrated registrations using mutual information, affine transform and non-rigid registration. The registration accuracy is evaluated by the calculation of the overlapped ratio of segmented bone regions and average distance difference of contours between reference and registered images. The performance of the developed software was tested using multimodal images of a patient who has the residual tumor of high grade gliomas. Registration accuracy of about 74% and average 2.3 mm distance difference were calculated by the evaluation method of bone segmentation and contour extraction. The registration accuracy can be improved as higher as 4% by the manual adjustment functions. Advanced MR images are analyzed using color maps for rCBV maps and quantitative calculation based on region of interest (ROI) for ADC maps. Then, multi-parameters on the same voxels are plotted on plane and constitute the multi-functional parametric maps of which x and y axis representing rCBV and ADC values. According to the distributions of functional parameters, tumor regions showing the higher vascularity and cellularity are categorized according to the criteria corresponding malignant gliomas. Determined volumes reflecting pathological and physiological characteristics of tumors are marked on anatomical images. By applying the multi-functional images, errors arising from using one type of image would be reduced and local regions representing higher probability as tumor cells would be determined for radiation treatment plan. Biological tumor characteristics can be expressed using image registration and multi-functional parametric maps in the developed software. The software can be considered to delineate clinical target volumes using advanced MR images with anatomical images.