• Title/Summary/Keyword: probability distributions

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The Frequency Distribution of Void Ratio of Granular Materials (입상체시료의 공극비의 빈도분포)

  • Do, Deok-Hyeon;Go, Jae-Man;O, Gyu-Tae
    • Geotechnical Engineering
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    • v.4 no.3
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    • pp.5-18
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    • 1988
  • This study aims at scrutinizing the relationships among the frequency distribution of voids the relative density and the shear strength for the three types of different granular materials. The main results summarized are as follows: (1) The frequency distribution of void ratio of glass beads can be approximated by the negative exponential distribution proposed by Shahinpoor (1981), while as the particle shape changes from spherical to angular the frequency of the denser voids decreases and the distributions are well presented by the beta distribution. (2) For all materials, the standard deviation of void ratio increases with decreasing both the relative density of the material and sphericity of particle. (3) It was found that shear strength of the material was a function of not only the mean void ratio and its standard deviation, but also of the shape of the probability density function of the distribution of void ratio. The more the frequency distribution of void inclines towards the denser voids, the higher the shear strength of the material and vice versa.

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The Study on the Strong Wind Damage Prediction for Estimation Surface Wind Speed of Typhoon Season(I) (태풍시기의 강풍피해 예측을 위한 지상풍 산정에 관한 연구(I))

  • Park, Jong-Kil;Jung, Woo-Sik;Choi, Hyo-Jin
    • Journal of Environmental Science International
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    • v.17 no.2
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    • pp.195-201
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    • 2008
  • Damage from typhoon disaster can be mitigated by grasping and dealing with the damage promptly for the regions in typhoon track. What is this work, a technique to analyzed dangerousness of typhoon should be presupposed. This study estimated 10 m level wind speed using 700 hPa wind by typhoon, referring to GPS dropwindsonde study of Franklin(2003). For 700 hPa wind, 30 km resolution data of Regional Data Assimilation Prediction System(RDAPS) were used. For roughness length in estimating wind of 10 m level, landuse data of USGS are employed. For 10 m level wind speed of Typhoon Rusa in 2002, we sampled AWS site of $7.4{\sim}30km$ distant from typhoon center and compare them with observational data. The results show that the 10 m level wind speed is the estimation of maximum wind speed which can appear in surface by typhoon and it cannot be compared with general hourly observational data. Wind load on domestic buildings relies on probability distributions of extreme wind speed. Hence, calculated 10 m level wind speed is useful for estimating the damage structure from typhoon.

A Study of Solar Eclipse Records during the Three Kingdoms Period in Korea

  • Lee, Ki-Won
    • Journal of the Korean earth science society
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    • v.29 no.5
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    • pp.408-418
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    • 2008
  • In this study, solar eclipse records were investigated during the Three Kingdoms era of ancient Korea using astronomical calculations and numerical simulations. Under the condition that the solar eclipses were actually observed at the well known capitals of the Three Kingdoms, I investigated the probabilities that the optimal observation areas of the Early Silla, Goguryeo, and Baekje records would appear around Chinese continent. I found higher probabilities than those suggested by Park and La (1994), although the numerical values are still low, especially in the case of the Early Silla records. On the other hand, the probability that the optimal observation area of the Later Silla records will be present around South Korea is only 13.6%, although the area shows a good match with the known capital. I also analyzed the number distribution of the eclipse records for the Three Kingdoms (except for the latter Silla's) according to the observers' locations: at the optimal observation areas and at the known capitals. And then I compared with the number distribution of all eclipses observable from those locations. From the $\chi^2$-test, I found that the Goguryeo and Baekje records had better representation of their population distributions at the latter regions ($\chi^2$=27.93 and 205.5) than at the former ones ($\chi^2$=34.19 and 211.5). Therefore, it is difficult to conclude that the observers' locations during the Three Kingdoms period were either near China, as suggested by Park and La, or in the Korean peninsula, solely based on these results. It is thus recommended that more studies are required to confirm the real observers' locations during the Three Kingdoms era.

An Application of Simulation Method to Planning of Road Pavement Operation (시뮬레이션을 이용한 도로포장 공정계획의 수립방안)

  • Ohn, Seong-Won;Kim, Ok-Ki;Woo, Sung-Kwon
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.8 no.1 s.35
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    • pp.124-131
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    • 2007
  • Project management means usually managing the rate of construction progress. But it also contains preparing scheme of execution and establishing plan for equipment, material, labor force to finish project within expected duration. In this paper to establish effective project planning a road pavement operation is selected as a case and simulation method is used for analyzing it. Next probability distributions are created after analyzing collected data and these are reflected in simulation model. Simulated result is compared with real project planning using models of lean concrete pavement process and concrete slab pavement process to verify efficiency of this model. In the event we know that project planning using simulation is more effective than one of the field in the aspects of duration and cost. Meanwhile simulated result in this paper has a limitation in accuracy because various constraints of filed are not reflected in it. However if we reflect this constraints in model through examining field in future this limitation is expected to be improved.

Estimates of Partial Safety Factors of Circumferential Through-Wall Cracked Pipes Based on Elastic-Plastic Crack Initiation Criterion (탄소성 균열개시조건에 대한 원주방향 관통균열 배관의 부분안전계수 계산)

  • Lee, Jae-Bin;Huh, Nam-Su
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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    • v.38 no.11
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    • pp.1257-1264
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    • 2014
  • Efforts are presently underway for developing an optimal design methodology for GEN-IV nuclear reactors based on target failure probabilities. A typical example is the system-based code, in which the results are represented in the form of partial safety factors (PSFs). Thus, a PSF is one of the crucial elements in either component design or integrity assessment based on target failure probabilities during the operation period. In the present study, a procedure for calculating the PSF of a circumferential through-wall cracked pipe based on the elastic-plastic crack initiation criterion is established, in which the importance of each input variable is assessed. Elastic-plastic J-integrals are calculated using the GE/EPRI and reference stress methods, and the PSF values are calculated using both first- and second-order reliability methods. Moreover, the effect of statistical distributions of assessment variables on the PSF is also evaluated.

Estimation of Drought Rainfall by Regional Frequency Analysis using L and LH-Moments(I) - On the Method of L-Moments - (L 및 LH-모멘트법과 지역빈도분석에 의한 가뭄우량의 추정(I) - L-모멘트법을 중심으로 -)

  • 이순혁;윤성수;맹승진;류경식;주호길
    • Magazine of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.45 no.5
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    • pp.97-109
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    • 2003
  • This study is mainly conducted to derive the design drought rainfall by the consecutive duration using probability weighted moments with rainfall in the regional drought frequency analysis. It is anticipated to suggest optimal design drought rainfall of hydraulic structures for the water requirement and drought frequency of occurrence for the safety of water utilization through this study. Preferentially, this study was conducted to derive the optimal regionalization of the precipitation data that can be classified by the climatologically and geographically homogeneous regions all over the regions except Cheju and Ulreung islands in Korea. Five homogeneous regions in view of topographical and climatological aspects were accomplished by K-means clustering method. Using the L-moment ratio diagram and Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, generalized extreme value distribution was confirmed as the best fitting one among applied distributions. At-site and regional parameters of the generalized extreme value distribution were estimated by the method of L-moments. Design drought rainfalls using L-moments following the consecutive duration were derived by the at-site and regional analysis using the observed and simulated data resulted from Monte Carlo techniques. Relative root-mean-square error (RRMSE), relative bias (RBIAS) and relative reduction (RR) in RRMSE for the design drought rainfall derived by at-site and regional analysis in the observed an simulated data were computed and compared. In has shown that the regional frequency analysis procedure can substantially more reduce the RRMSE. RBIAS and RR in RRMSE than those of at-site analysis in the prediction of design drought rainfall. Consequently, optimal design drought rainfalls following the regions and consecutive durations were derived by the regional frequency analysis.

Studies on the Isolation of Vibrio Species from Sea Water and Marine Products at Ulleung Island of Korea in 1985 (한국 울릉도 근해의 비브리오속의 분리연구)

  • Ju, Jin-Woo;Lee, Mee-Heon;Kim, Il
    • The Journal of the Korean Society for Microbiology
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    • v.21 no.3
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    • pp.345-353
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    • 1986
  • Authors studies on the isolation of non-sucrose fermentation Vibrio species such as V. parahaemolyticus, V. vulnificus and V. damsela from sea water, shellfishes and various algae at Ulleung island in the east of Korea on summer in 1985. Authors carried out test for isolated strains to biochemical characteristics, halophilism, hemolysis and serological reaction. The results obtained were as follows: 1. Strains isolated from total specimens were 25 strains of V. parahaemolyticus, 2 strains of V. vulnificus and 1 strain of V. damsela, respectively. 2. Isolated frequency of Vibrio species from sea water and marine products was lower than on specimens in the southern sea of Korea from 1980 to 1985. 3. On hemolysis reaction on blood agar media using human and rabbit erythrocytes, 14 strains among 25 strains of V. parahaemolyticus isolated were positive, and V. vulnificus and V. damsela were positive, respectively. 4. The distributions of serotypes of V. parahaemolyticus isolated were from O1 group to O10 group, and from K 10 to K 69. The results of K serotypes were as follows ; serotype K 10 and K 33 were 2 strains, serotype K 59 and K 69 were 1 strain, respectively. And 2 strains of V. vulnificus isolated were not agglutinated by antiserum of V. vulnificus. Therefore, the probability is that 2 strains of V. vulnificus isolated were other serotypes distributed on sea weater and marine products of Ulleung island of Korea.

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Bag of Visual Words Method based on PLSA and Chi-Square Model for Object Category

  • Zhao, Yongwei;Peng, Tianqiang;Li, Bicheng;Ke, Shengcai
    • KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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    • v.9 no.7
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    • pp.2633-2648
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    • 2015
  • The problem of visual words' synonymy and ambiguity always exist in the conventional bag of visual words (BoVW) model based object category methods. Besides, the noisy visual words, so-called "visual stop-words" will degrade the semantic resolution of visual dictionary. In view of this, a novel bag of visual words method based on PLSA and chi-square model for object category is proposed. Firstly, Probabilistic Latent Semantic Analysis (PLSA) is used to analyze the semantic co-occurrence probability of visual words, infer the latent semantic topics in images, and get the latent topic distributions induced by the words. Secondly, the KL divergence is adopt to measure the semantic distance between visual words, which can get semantically related homoionym. Then, adaptive soft-assignment strategy is combined to realize the soft mapping between SIFT features and some homoionym. Finally, the chi-square model is introduced to eliminate the "visual stop-words" and reconstruct the visual vocabulary histograms. Moreover, SVM (Support Vector Machine) is applied to accomplish object classification. Experimental results indicated that the synonymy and ambiguity problems of visual words can be overcome effectively. The distinguish ability of visual semantic resolution as well as the object classification performance are substantially boosted compared with the traditional methods.

Dynamic response uncertainty analysis of vehicle-track coupling system with fuzzy variables

  • Ye, Ling;Chen, Hua-Peng;Zhou, Hang;Wang, Sheng-Nan
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • v.75 no.4
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    • pp.519-527
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    • 2020
  • Dynamic analysis of a vehicle-track coupling system is important to structural design, damage detection and condition assessment of the structural system. Deterministic analysis of the vehicle-track coupling system has been extensively studied in the past, however, the structural parameters of the coupling system have uncertainties in engineering practices. It is essential to treat the parameters of the vehicle-track coupling system with consideration of uncertainties. In this paper, a method for predicting the bounds of the vehicle-track coupling system responses with uncertain parameters is presented. The uncertain system parameters are modeled as fuzzy variables instead of conventional random variables with known probability distributions. Then, the dynamic response functions of the coupling system are transformed into a component function based on the high dimensional representation approximation. The Lagrange interpolation method is used to approximate the component function. Finally, the bounds of the system's dynamic responses can be predicted by using Monte Carlo method for the interpolation polynomials of the Lagrange interpolation function. A numerical example is introduced to illustrate the ability of the proposed method to predict the bounds of the system's dynamic responses, and the results are compared with the direct Monte Carlo method. The results show that the proposed method is effective and efficient to predict the bounds of the system's dynamic responses with fuzzy variables.

Comparison of Validity of Food Group Intake by Food Frequency Questionnaire Between Pre- and Post-adjustment Estimates Derived from 2-day 24-hour Recalls in Combination with the Probability of Consumption

  • Kim, Dong-Woo;Oh, Se-Young;Kwon, Sung-Ok;Kim, Jeong-Seon
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.13 no.6
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    • pp.2655-2661
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    • 2012
  • Validation of a food frequency questionnaire (FFQ) utilising a short-term measurement method is challenging when the reference method does not accurately reflect the usual food intake. In addition, food group intake that is not consumed on daily basis is more critical when episodically consumed foods are related and compared. To overcome these challenges, several statistical approaches have been developed to determine usual food intake distributions. The Multiple Source Method (MSM) can calculate the usual food intake by combining the frequency questions of an FFQ with the short-term food intake amount data. In this study, we applied the MSM to estimate the usual food group intake and evaluate the validity of an FFQ with a group of 333 Korean children (aged 3-6 y) who completed two 24-hour recalls (24HR) and one FFQ in 2010. After adjusting the data using the MSM procedure, the true rate of non-consumption for all food groups was less than 1% except for the beans group. The median Spearman correlation coefficients against FFQ of the mean of 2-d 24HRs data and the MSM-adjusted data were 0.20 (range: 0.11 to 0.40) and 0.35 (range: 0.14 to 0.60), respectively. The weighted kappa values against FFQ ranged from 0.08 to 0.25 for the mean of 2-d 24HRs data and from 0.10 to 0.41 for the MSM-adjusted data. For most food groups, the MSM-adjusted data showed relatively stronger correlations against FFQ than raw 2-d 24HRs data, from 0.03 (beverages) to 0.34 (mushrooms). The results of this study indicated that the application of the MSM, which was a better estimate of the usual intake, could be worth considering in FFQ validation studies among Korean children.