• Title/Summary/Keyword: probability distributions

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Reliability Analysis of Gravity-based Offshore Wind Turbine Foundation Considering Ocean Environmental Loads and Soil Uncertainty (해양환경하중 및 지반의 불확실성을 고려한 중력식 해상풍력 기초의 신뢰성 해석)

  • Lee, Sang Geun;Kim, Dong Hyawn
    • Journal of Ocean Engineering and Technology
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    • v.29 no.5
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    • pp.359-365
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    • 2015
  • A reliability analysis of the gravity-based foundation of anoffshore wind turbine was performed by considering the uncertainties of the design variables, including environmental loads. The limit state functions of the gravity-based foundation were defined using the response limits of the support structures suggested in the DNV standard. The wind load couldbe obtained using the GH_bladed software, and the wave load was calculated using the Morison equation. Then, the extreme distributions of the wind and wave loads were estimated by applying the peak over threshold (POT) method to the wind and wave load data. The probability distribution characteristics of the soil properties were defined with reference to a southwest coast geotechnical survey report. The reliability index was evaluated for each failure mode using a first-order reliability method.

An Experimental Study on the Characteristics of Direct Photoelectric Charging (직접 광대전의 대전특성에 관한 실험적 연구)

  • Lee, Chang-Sun;Kim, Yong-Jin;Kim, Sang-Sao
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers B
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    • v.24 no.6
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    • pp.753-759
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    • 2000
  • Photoelectric charging is a very efficient way of charging small particles. This method can be applied to combustion measurement, electrostatic precipitator, metal separation and control of micro-contamination. To understand the photoelectric charging mechanism, particle charging of silver by exposure to ultraviolet is investigated in this study. Average charges and charge distributions are measured at various conditions, using two differential mobility analyzers, a condensation nucleus counter, and an aerosol electrometer. The silver particles are generated in a spark discharge aerosol generator. After that process, the generated particles are charged in the photoelectric charger using low-pressure mercury lamp that emits ultraviolet having wavelength 253.7 nm. The results show that ultra-fine particles are highly charged by the photoelectric charging. The average charges linearly increase with increasing particle size and the charge distribution change with particle size. These results are discussed by comparison with previous experiments and proposed equations. It is assumed that the coefficient of electron emission probability is affected by initial charge. The results also show that the charge distribution of a particle is dependent on initial charge. Single changed particle, uncharged particle and neutralized particle are compared. The differences of charge distribution in each case increase with increasing particle size.

Ichthyoplankton Detection Proportion and Margin of Error for the Scomber japonicus in Korean Coastal Seas

  • Kim, Sung;Cho, Hong-Yeon
    • Ocean and Polar Research
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    • v.39 no.2
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    • pp.73-84
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    • 2017
  • The probability distribution of ichthyoplankton is important for enhancing the precision of sampling while reducing unnecessary surveys. To estimate the ichthyoplankton detection proportion (IDP) and its margin of error (ME), the monitoring information of the chub mackerel's (Scomber japonicus) ichthyoplankton presence-absence sampling data has been were collected over approximately 30 years (from 1982 to 2011) in the Korean coastal seas. Based on the computed spatial distributions of the mackerel's IDP and ME, the confidence interval (CI) range, defined as 2 ME, decreases from approximately 80% to 40% as the sample size n increases from 4 to 24 and the ME is approximately 40% in the typical (seasonal survey) case n = 4 per year. The IDP and ME off Jeju Island are relatively high at the 0.5-degree smoothing level. After increasing the spatial smoothing level to 1.0-degree, the ME decreased, and the spatial distribution pattern also changed due to the over-smoothing effects. In this study, the 0.5-degree smoothing is more suitable for the distribution pattern than the 1.0-degree smoothing level. The area of the high IDP and the low ME on the mackerel's ichthyoplankton was similar to the estimated spawning ground in the Korean peninsula. This information could contribute to enhancing for the spawning ecology surveys.

A Robust Conjecture on the Relationship among the Expected Profits of Various Newsvendor Models (여러 가지 뉴스벤더모델의 기대값 사이의 관계에 대한 견고한 추측)

  • Won, You-Kyung
    • Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society
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    • v.37 no.1
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    • pp.1-18
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    • 2012
  • The present study provides some extensions over a recent work in Won (2011) which investigates properties of the static newsvendor problem under a schedule involving progressive multiple discounts under the assumption that demand is given exogenously. Khouja (1995, 1996) formulated the extended versions over the classical newsvendor model with various discount policies including all-units discount and/or multiple discounts and found that the extended newsvendor models with discount schedules yield higher optimal expected profits than the classical newsvendor model with no-discounts. In this study, we establish a robust conjecture as a stronger statement than Khouja's findings with regard to the general relationship among the expected profits of newsvendor models in the sense that the conjecture holds for every order quantity as well as the optimal order quantity. The conjecture encourages the newsvendor facing quantity discounts to safely implement her own discounts policy to customer or accept quantity discounts offered by the supplier even if the optimal order quantity cannot be ordered due to additional restrictions such as budget or warehouse capacity constraints because the newsvendor models with quantity discounts always yield higher expected profit than the classic newsvendor model without quantity discounts regardless of the order quantity. Results from wide experiments with various probability distributions of demand strongly support our conjecture.

Modified Kolmogorov-Smirnov Statistic for Credit Evaluation (신용평가를 위한 Kolmogorov-Smirnov 수정통계량)

  • Hong, C.S.;Bang, G.
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.21 no.6
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    • pp.1065-1075
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    • 2008
  • For the model validation of credit rating models, Kolmogorov-Smirnov(K-S) statistic has been widely used as a testing method of discriminatory power from the probabilities of default for default and non-default. For the credit rating works, K-S statistics are to test two identical distribution functions which are partitioned from a distribution. In this paper under the assumption that the distribution is known, modified K-S statistic which is formulated by using known distributions is proposed and compared K-S statistic.

A STUDY ON THE PROBABILISTIC PRODUCTION COST SIMULATION BY THE MIXTURE OF CUMULANTS APPROXIMATION (MIXTURE OF CUMULANTS APPROXIMATION 법에 의한 발전시뮬레이션에 관한 연구)

  • Song, K.Y.;Kim, Y.H.;Cha, J.M.
    • Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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    • 1990.07a
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    • pp.154-157
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    • 1990
  • This paper describes a new method of calculating expected energy generation and loss of load probability (L.O.L.P) for electric power system operation and expansion planning. The method represents an equivalent load duration curve (E.L.D.C) as a mixture of cumulants approximation (M.O.C.A), which is the general case of mixture of normals approximation (M.O.N.A). By regarding a load distribution as many normal distributions-rather than one normal distribution-and representing each of them in terms of Gram-Charller expansion, we could improve the accuracy of results. We developed an algorithm which automatically determines the number of distribution and demarcation points. In modelling of a supply system, we made subsets of generators according to the number of generator outage: since the calculation of each subset's moment needs to be processed rapidly, we futher developed specific recursive formulae. The method is applied to the test systems and the results are compared with those of cumulant, M.O.N.A and Booth-Baleriaux method. It is verified that the M.O.C.A method is faster and more accurate than any other methods.

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A Research of Applying RAM-c to Analyze the Design Service Life for Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (무인항공기의 설계사용 수명판단을 위한 RAM-c 적용 연구)

  • Choi, Cheong Ho;Bang, Jang Kyu;Park, Sung Sik
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Aviation and Aeronautics
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.117-124
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    • 2015
  • RAM (Reliability, Availability and Maintenance) has been applied to design and analysis tools which affects system's operational sustainability and its life cycle cost as RAM-c(2009 DoD). RAM-c plays also an important role to guarantee the system engineering for mission assurance. Reliability is highly related to the probability of system failure. Availability means mission capability or the condition of ready to mission. Maintenance includes both the repair to recover the system in the event of failure/unexpected breakdown and proactive maintenance to prolong the design service life of the system or machinery. It is the purpose that this paper is to analyze and conclude the objective service life of UAV. The more UAV is operated, the less the level of its reliability becomes. Repairing failures and supplying spare parts on time, system reliability could be improved up until the time over target. Applying statistical Weibull distributions, this paper suggests the analysis of the design service life and economic life of UAV based on RAM-c with operational data.

Self-organized Spectrum Access in Small-cell Networks with Dynamic Loads

  • Wu, Ducheng;Wu, Qihui;Xu, Yuhua
    • KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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    • v.10 no.5
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    • pp.1976-1997
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    • 2016
  • This paper investigates the problem of co-tier interference mitigation for dynamic small- cell networks, in which the load of each small-cell varies with the number of active associated small-cell users (SUs). Due to the fact that most small-cell base stations (SBSs) are deployed in an ad-hoc manner, the problem of reducing co-tier interference caused by dynamic loads in a distributed fashion is quite challenging. First, we propose a new distributed channel allocation method for small-cells with dynamic loads and define a dynamic interference graph. Based on this approach, we formulate the problem as a dynamic interference graph game and prove that the game is a potential game and has at least one pure strategy Nash equilibrium (NE) point. Moreover, we show that the best pure strategy NE point minimizes the expectation of the aggregate dynamic co-tier interference in the small-cell network. A distributed dynamic learning algorithm is then designed to achieve NE of the game, in which each SBS is unaware of the probability distributions of its own and other SBSs' dynamic loads. Simulation results show that the proposed approach can mitigate dynamic co-tier interference effectively and significantly outperform random channel selection.

An Efficient Dynamic Entropy Coding by using Multiple Codeword in H.264/AVC (다중 부호어를 이용한 효율적인 H.264/AVC 동적 부호화 방법)

  • Baek, Seong-hak;Moon, Yong-hoo;Kim, Jae-ho
    • The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
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    • v.29 no.9C
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    • pp.1244-1251
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    • 2004
  • In this paper, we propose an efficient dynamic coding scheme by using multiple code words in H.264/A VC entropy coding. The exponential Golomb (Exp-Golomb) code words used in H 264/A VC do not reflect enough the symbol distributions of the combined syntax element in [7] due to their static probability distribution characteristics However, the multiple codewords in this paper have different statistical characteristics. we propose a dynamic coding scheme by using selectively among multiple codewords to encode the combined syntax clement according to given image sequences. Simulation results show that our proposed scheme outperforms the existing [7] me in compression efficiency without loss of quality.

Analysis of the Effect of Manufacturing Tolerance on Induction Motor Performance by Univariate Dimension Reduction Method (단변수 차원 감소법을 이용한 제작 공차가 유도전동기 성능에 미치는 영향력 분석)

  • Lee, Sang-Kyun;Kang, Byung-Su;Back, Jong Hyun;Kim, Dong-Hun
    • Journal of the Korean Magnetics Society
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    • v.25 no.6
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    • pp.203-207
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    • 2015
  • This paper introduces a probabilistic analysis method in order to analyze the effect of manufacturing tolerance on induction motor performance occurring in massive production. The univariate dimension reduction method is adapted to predict probabilistic characteristics of a performance function due to certain probabilistic distributions of design variables. Moreover, the sensitivity information on mean and variance of the performance function is estimated, and then the effect of randomness of individual design variables on the probability performance function is analyzed. The effectiveness and accuracy of the method is investigated with a mathematical model and an induction motor.