• Title/Summary/Keyword: probability distributions

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Estimation of Storage Capacity for Sustainable Rainwater Harvesting System with Probability Distribution (확률분포를 이용한 지속가능한 빗물이용시설의 저류용량 산정)

  • Kang, Won Gu;Chung, Eun-Sung;Lee, Kil Seong;Oh, Jin-Ho
    • Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
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    • v.26 no.5
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    • pp.740-746
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    • 2010
  • Rainwater has been used in many countries as a way of minimizing water availability problems. Rainwater harvesting system (RHS) has been successfully implemented as alternative water supply sources even in Korea. Although RHS is an effective alternative to water supply, its efficiency is often heavily influenced by temporal distribution of rainfall. Since natural precipitation is a random process and has probabilistic characteristics, it will be more appropriate to describe these probabilistic features of rainfall and its relationship with design storage capacity as well as supply deficit of RHS. This study presents the methodology to establish the relationships between storage capacities and deficit rates using probability distributions. In this study, the real three-story building was considered and nine scenaries were developed because the daily water usage pattern of the study one was not identified. GEV, Gumbel and the generalized logistic distribution ware selected according to the results of Kolmogorov-Smirnov test and Chi-Squared test. As a result, a set of curves describing the relationships under different exceedance probabilities were generated as references to RHS storage design. In case of the study building, the deficit rate becomes larger as return period increases and will not increase any more if the storage capacity becomes the appropriate quantity. The uncertainties between design storage and the deficit can be more understood through this study on the probabilistic relationships between storage capacities and deficit rates.

Characteristics of High Frequency Backscattering Strength by Zostera Marina (Seagrass) Bed (거머리말 (잘피) 서식지의 고주파 후방산란 특성)

  • Yoon Kwan-Seob;Na Jungyul;La Hyoungsul
    • The Journal of the Acoustical Society of Korea
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.97-102
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    • 2005
  • Acoustic experiments were performed with Zostera marina to study the characteristics of backscattering of seagrass living in the bottom interface. Field experiments were conducted in the Dongdae man, Namhae for day and night to consider the effects of air-bubble from photosynthesis of seagrass. The multi-frequency (30$\~$120 kHz) responses were measured and the distributions of back scattering strength due to the movement of seagrass were Presented by PDF (probability density function) at 120 120 kHz. The results were shown both the frequency dependence and diurnal variation of the backscattering strength between day and night. This diurnal variation may be caused by the amount of oxygen in dissolved bubbles formed by Photosynthesis of seagrass.

Analysis of the Korean peninsula precipitation using inverse statistics methodology (역통계 방법론을 이용한 한반도의 강수 특성 분석)

  • Min, Seungsik
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.29 no.3
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    • pp.425-435
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    • 2016
  • In this paper, we analyze the inverse statistics of rainfall for 12 regions from 1973 to 2014. We obtain a probability density function f(x) of daily rainfall x, and $f({\tau}_{\rho})$ of the first passage time ${\tau}_{\rho}$ for a given ${\rho}$. Lastly, we derive the relation between ${\rho}$ and ${\tau}_{mean}({\rho})$, i.e., the averaged value of ${\tau}_{\rho}$. The analyses result in the x and ${\tau}_{\rho}$ have stretched exponential distributions. Also, ${\tau}_{mean}({\rho})$ has the form of a stretched exponential function. We derive the shape parameter ${\beta}$ of the distribution, and analyze the characteristics of 12 regional rainfalls.

Comparison Study of Parameter Estimation Methods for Some Extreme Value Distributions (Focused on the Regression Method) (극단치 분포의 모수 추정방법 비교 연구(회귀 분석법을 기준으로))

  • Woo, Ji-Yong;Kim, Myung-Suk
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.16 no.3
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    • pp.463-477
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    • 2009
  • Parameter estimation methods such as maximum likelihood estimation method, probability weighted moments method, regression method have been popularly applied to various extreme value models in numerous literature. Among three methods above, the performance of regression method has not been rigorously investigated yet. In this paper the regression method is compared with the other methods via Monte Carlo simulation studies for estimation of parameters of the Generalized Extreme Value(GEV) distribution and the Generalized Pareto(GP) distribution. Our simulation results indicate that the regression method tends to outperform other methods under small samples by providing smaller biases and root mean square errors for estimation of location parameter of the GEV model. For the scale parameter estimation of the GP model under small samples, the regression method tends to report smaller biases than the other methods. The regression method tends to be superior to other methods for the shape parameter estimation of the GEV model and GP model when the shape parameter is -0.4 under small and moderately large samples.

A Study on the Risk - based Local Normal CSOs Curve Designs (위험도 기반 지역별 정규 CSOs 곡선 설계에 관한 연구)

  • Jo Deok-Jun
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.39 no.7 s.168
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    • pp.575-581
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    • 2006
  • This paper presents a systematic approach for the economical design of stormwater quality control systems. For the design of runoff quality control system (RQCS), the rainfall-runoff process requires the local rainfall data recorded continuously. In this study the rainfall probability distribution is assumed to follow an exponential decay function. Applying the exponential decay function, the normalized curves are derived to explain the non-exceedance probability distributions. The optimal curves for the determination of the RQCS size are derived based on the overflow risk. Comparison of the optimal capture volume and peak runoff rate to those computed by an urban rainfall-runoff model(ILLUDAS) demonstrates that the optimal CSOs(Combined Sewer Overflows) curves derived in this study can be utilized for the design of stormwater quality control systems in Korea avoiding an excessive computational effort based on over flow risks.

Sequence Distribution and Thermal Properties of Poly(butylene succinate-co-butylene terephthalate) Copolyesters (Poly(butylene succinate-co-butylene terephthalate) 공중합물의 미세구조와 열적 성질)

  • Park, Sang Soon;Jeong, Jae Ho;Kim, Tae Jeong;Kim, Dae Jin;Im, Seung Soon
    • Journal of the Korean Chemical Society
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    • v.40 no.1
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    • pp.87-95
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    • 1996
  • The binary random copolyesters of poly(butylene succinate-co-butylene terephthalate) (PBS/PBT) were synthesized and their sequence distributions were investigated over the entire range for PBS/PBT copolyester compositions by 1H NMR spectroscopy. The melting point (Tm) of these copolyesters were depressed gradually with the increase of dimethyl terephthalate (DMT) mol% in composition and appeared an eutetic behaviour which appears a minimum at ST3 (DMT 65.8 mol%). The melting behaviour of PBS/PBT copolyester was not directly depended on molar fraction (Xa) but on only the sequence propagation probability (P) which occurs in triad fraction. It also can be seen that when the succinate units (or terephthalate units) were abundant enough, PBS/PBT Copolymers formed only PBS (or PBT) crystal with complete rejection of the terephthalate units (or succinate units).

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A Quantitative Trust Model with consideration of Subjective Preference (주관적 선호도를 고려한 정량적 신뢰모델)

  • Kim, Hak-Joon;Lee, Sun-A;Lee, Kyung-Mi;Lee, Keon-Myung
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems
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    • v.16 no.1
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    • pp.61-65
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    • 2006
  • This paper is concerned with a quantitative computational trust model which lakes into account multiple evaluation criteria and uses the recommendation from others in order to get the trust value for entities. In the proposed trust model, the trust for an entity is defined as the expectation for the entity to yield satisfactory outcomes in the given situation. Once an interaction has been made with an entity, it is assumed that outcomes are observed with respect to evaluation criteria. When the trust information is needed, the satisfaction degree, which is the probability to generate satisfactory outcomes for each evaluation criterion, is computed based on the outcome probability distributions and the entity's preference degrees on the outcomes. Then, the satisfaction degrees for evaluation criteria are aggregated into a trust value. At that time, the reputation information is also incorporated into the trust value. This paper presents in detail how the trust model works.

IR Image Segmentation using GrabCut (GrabCut을 이용한 IR 영상 분할)

  • Lee, Hee-Yul;Lee, Eun-Young;Gu, Eun-Hye;Choi, Il;Choi, Byung-Jae;Ryu, Gang-Soo;Park, Kil-Houm
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems
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    • v.21 no.2
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    • pp.260-267
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    • 2011
  • This paper proposes a method for segmenting objects from the background in IR(Infrared) images based on GrabCut algorithm. The GrabCut algorithm needs the window encompassing the interesting known object. This procedure is processed by user. However, to apply it for object recognition problems in image sequences. the location of window should be determined automatically. For this, we adopted the Otsu' algorithm for segmenting the interesting but unknown objects in an image coarsely. After applying the Otsu' algorithm, the window is located automatically by blob analysis. The GrabCut algorithm needs the probability distributions of both the candidate object region and the background region surrounding closely the object for estimating the Gaussian mixture models(GMMs) of the object and the background. The probability distribution of the background is computed from the background window, which has the same number of pixels within the candidate object region. Experiments for various IR images show that the proposed method is proper to segment out the interesting object in IR image sequences. To evaluate performance of proposed segmentation method, we compare other segmentation methods.

Parameter Estimation and Reliability Analysis Using Bayesian Approach for Bolted Joint and O-ring Seal of Solid Rocket Motor (고체 로켓 모터의 체결 볼트와 오링에 대한 베이지안 접근법 기반 모수 추정과 신뢰성 해석)

  • Gang, Jin Hyuk;Choi, Joo Ho
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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    • v.41 no.11
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    • pp.1055-1064
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    • 2017
  • Since a device such as a rocket motor requires very high reliability, a reasonable reliability design process is essential. However, Korea has implemented a design method for applying a safety factor to each component. In classic reliability analysis, input variables such as mean and standard deviation, used in the limit state function, are treated as deterministic values. Because the mean and standard deviation are determined by a small amount of data, this approach could lead to inaccurate results. In this study, reliability analysis is performed for bolted joints and o-ring seals, and the Bayesian approach is used to statistically estimate the input variables. The estimated variables and failure probability, calculated by the reliability analysis, are derived in the form of probability distributions.

Derivation of Frequency Relationship Curve in Urban Watershed (도시유역의 빈도 관계곡선 유도)

  • Seo, ju-seok;Park, man-kyo;Woo, seung-sik;Lee, tae-woo;Jeong, chan-wook;Lee, jong-seok
    • Proceedings of the Korea Contents Association Conference
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    • 2008.05a
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    • pp.285-288
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    • 2008
  • This study aims to rout optimized design flood discharge through prediction of the frequency-based precipitation from the frequency analysis with density of rainfall gage networks in urban watershed. Frequency analysis was examined for the measured rainfall depth with low density of a point and high density of the sub-basin divided into 13 points in watershed. The used rainfall data in order to analyze consists of two groups based on measured rainfall depth for a day duration with 39years of a point and 6years of 13 points by an extending as annual exceedance series, respectively. Selected rainfall data in this analysis show that low-network has maximum rainfall depth with duration 1hr-79.1mm and 24hrs-329.1mm, and high-networks have ones with duration of 1hr-93.0 mm and 24 hrs-245.0 mm, respectively. As the result, probability of the best in this study determined the Gumbel method from the goodness of fit test and the method of prime 6 probability distributions.

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