• Title/Summary/Keyword: probability distributions

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Focal Depth Factors in the PSH Analysis

  • Kim, Jun-Kyoung
    • Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
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    • v.2 no.3
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    • pp.83-86
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    • 1998
  • The results from the Individual Plant Examination of External Event of Yonggwyang nuclear power plants, unit 3 & 4, in Korea have shown that the high degree of diversities of the experts' opinions on seismicity and attenuation models is su, pp.sed to be generic cause of uncertainty of APEs(annual exceedance probability) in the PAHA(probabilistic seismic hazard analysis). This study investigated the sensitivity of the focal depth, which is one of the most uncertain seismicity parameters in Korea, Significant differences in resultant values of annual exceedance probabilities and much more symmetrical shape of the resultant PDFs(probability density functions), in case of consideration of focal depth, are found. These two results suggest that, even for the same seismic input data set including the seismicity models and ground motion attenuation models, to consider focal depth additionally for probabilistic seismic hazard analysis evaluation makes significant influence on the distributions of uncertainties and probabilities of exceedance per year for the whole ranges of seismic hazard levels. These facts suggest that it is necessary to derive focal depth parameter more effectively from the historical and instrumental documents on earthquake phenomena in Koran Peninsula for the future study of PSHA.

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Numerical analysis of temperature and stress distributions in a prestressed concrete slab with pipe cooling (파이프쿨링을 실시한 대형 프리스트레스트 콘크리트 슬래브의 수화열 해석)

  • 주영춘;김은겸;신치범;조규영;박용남
    • Proceedings of the Korea Concrete Institute Conference
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    • 1999.04a
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    • pp.275-280
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    • 1999
  • It was analysed the effect of pipe cooling as a measure to avoid thermal cracks due to the heat of hydration during the curing process of a massive prestressed concrete (PSC) slab. PSC slab has a complex three-dimensional shape of which the maximal and minimal thicknesses of cross-section were 2.8 and 0.95m, respectively. Steel pipes of which the diameter was 1 inch were employed for cooling. The horizontal and vertical distances between the contiguous pipes were 0.5 and 0.6m, respectively. One the four layers of cooling pipe were arranged according to the thickness of cross-section. Temperature distribution was calculated by the program developed by the authors, of which the accuracy was verified on a few published papers by the authors. Based on the temperature analysis of the cross-section which had four layers of cooing pipe, the maximum temperature of concrete interior was 54.2$^{\circ}C$ and the maximum differenced between the interior and surface temperatures of concrete was 14.$0^{\circ}C$ and, thereby, the thermal cracking index was 1.1. Upon the stress analysis, the thermal cracking index was 0.92 and the probability of thermal-crack development was 52%. Therefore, it was expected to make it possible to reduce the probability of thermal-crack development in a massive PSC slab by adopting pipe cooling.

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Probability-Based Durability Design for Concrete Structure with Crack: Bimodal Distribution of Chloride Diffusion

  • Na, Ung-Jin;Kwon, Seung-Jun
    • Journal of the Korean Recycled Construction Resources Institute
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    • v.3 no.1
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    • pp.22-33
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    • 2015
  • Chloride ions in RC (Reinforced Concrete) structures can cause very severe corrosion in reinforcement steel. It is generally informed that chloride penetration can be considerably accelerated by enlarged chloride diffusion due to cracks. These cracks play a role in main routes through which chloride ions penetrate into the concrete, and also lead to steel corrosion in RC structures exposed to chloride attack, such as port and ocean structures. In this paper, field survey including evaluation of crack and chloride concentration distribution in concrete is performed to investigate an effect of crack on chloride diffusion. The service life of cracked concrete exposed to the marine environmental condition is estimated considering the crack effect on chloride diffusion. For this purpose, diffusion coefficients in cracked concrete are obtained based on the field survey. Using the relationship between diffusion coefficients in the cracked concrete and the crack widths, service life of the cracked concrete is predicted in a probabilistic framework. A bimodal distribution with two peaks, consisting of a weighted sum of two normal distributions is introduced to describe chloride diffusion of the concrete wharf with crack.

The Flow Characteristics of Fuel Droplets between the Twin Spray for 4-hole Gasoline Injectors (4공 가솔린 분사기의 2중 분무 사이에서 연료 액적들의 유동특성)

  • Kim, Won-Tae;Kang, Shin-Jae;Rho, Byung-Joon
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers B
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    • v.27 no.4
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    • pp.484-495
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    • 2003
  • This study investigates the flow characteristics of fuel droplets between twin spray for the 4-hole injector used a 4-valve gasoline engine. The injectors for this study were the three types of 4-hole gasoline injector in which orifice diameter was 0.24mm. The spray behavior of twin spray was investigated by means of visualization employed stroboscope. A PDPA system was employed to simultaneously measure the size and velocity of fuel droplets. The 3 dimensional mean velocities. droplet size distributions, SMD and joint probability density function of velocity and droplet size are analyzed at the center of the spray and the center region of twin spray. As a result, the configurations of injector exit such as orifice interval and length of outlet, are very important factors that affect the flow characteristics of fuel droplets at the center region of twin spray.

Reweighted L1-Minimization via Support Detection (Support 검출을 통한 reweighted L1-최소화 알고리즘)

  • Lee, Hyuk;Kwon, Seok-Beop;Shim, Byong-Hyo
    • Journal of the Institute of Electronics Engineers of Korea SP
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    • v.48 no.2
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    • pp.134-140
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    • 2011
  • Recent work in compressed sensing theory shows that $M{\times}N$ independent and identically distributed sensing matrix whose entries are drawn independently from certain probability distributions guarantee exact recovery of a sparse signal with high probability even if $M{\ll}N$. In particular, it is well understood that the $L_1$-minimization algorithm is able to recover sparse signals from incomplete measurements. In this paper, we propose a novel sparse signal reconstruction method that is based on the reweighted $L_1$-minimization via support detection.

Decision-Making based on Uncertain Information in a Beer Distribution Game U sing the Taguchi Method (맥주매송게임에서 다구찌 방법에 의한 불확실 정보 기반 의사결정 연구)

  • Lee, Ki-Kwang
    • Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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    • v.33 no.3
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    • pp.162-168
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    • 2010
  • Information is known to be a key element for the successful operation of a supply chain, which is required of the efficient ordering strategies and accurate predictions of demands. This study proposes a method to effectively utilize the meteorological forecast information in order to make decisions about ordering and prediction of demands by using the Taguchi experimental design. It is supposed that each echelon in a supply chain determines the order quantity with the prediction of precipitation in the next day based on probability forecast information. The precipitation event is predicted when the probability of the precipitation exceeds a chosen threshold. Accordingly, the choice of the threshold affect the performances of a supply chain. The Taguchi method is adopted to deduce a set of thresholds for echelons which is least sensitive to changes in environmental conditions, such as variability of demand distributions and production periods. A simulation of the beer distribution game was conducted to show that the set of thresholds found by the Taguchi method can reduce the cumulative chain cost, which consists of inventory and backlog costs.

GENERATION OF AN IMPERVIOUS MAP BY APPLYING TASSELED-CAP ENHANCEMENT USING KOMPSAT-2 IMAGE

  • Koh, Chang-Hwan;Ha, Sung-Ryong
    • Proceedings of the KSRS Conference
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    • 2008.10a
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    • pp.378-381
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    • 2008
  • The regulating and relaxing targets in the Land Use Regulation and Total Maximum Daily Loads are influenced by Land cover information. For the providing more accurate land information, this study attempted to generate an impervious surface map using KOMPSAT-2 image which a Korea manufactured high resolution satellite image. The classification progress of this study carried out by tasseled-cap spectral enhancement through each class extraction technique neither existing classification method. KOMPSAT-2 image of this study is enhanced by Soil Brightness Index(SBI), Green vegetation Index(GVI), None-Such wetness Index(NWI). Then ranges of extracted each index in enhanced image are determined. And then, Confidence Interval of classes was determined through the calculating Non-exceedance Probability. Spectral distributions of each class are changed according to changing of Control coefficient(${\alpha}$) at the calculated Non-exceedance Probability. Previously, Land cover classification map was generated based on established ranges of classes, and then, pervious and impervious surface was reclassified. Finally, impervious ratio of reclassified impervious surface map was calculated with blocks in the study area.

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Forecasting probabilities of earthquake in Korea based on seismological data (지진 관측자료를 기반으로 한 한반도 지진 발생 확률 예측)

  • Choi, Seowon;Jang, Woncheol
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.30 no.5
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    • pp.759-774
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    • 2017
  • Earthquake concerns have grown after a remarkable earthquake incident on September 12th, 2016 in Gyeongju, Korea. Earthquake forecasting is gaining in importance in order to guarantee infrastructure safety and develop protection policies. In this paper, we adopt a power-law distribution model to fit past earthquake occurrences in Korea with various historical and modern seismological records. We estimated power-law distribution parameters using empirical distributions and calculated the future probabilities for large earthquake events based on our model. We provide the probability that a future event has a larger magnitude than given levels, and the probability that a future event over certain levels will occur in a given period of time. This model contributes to the assessment of latent seismological risk in Korea by estimating future earthquake probabilities.

Estimation of Drought Rainfall According to Consecutive Duration and Return Period Using Probability Distribution (확률분포에 의한 지속기간 및 빈도별 가뭄우량 추정)

  • Lee, Soon Hyuk;Maeng, Sung Jin;Ryoo, Kyong Sik
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2004.05b
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    • pp.1103-1106
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    • 2004
  • The objective of this study is to induce the design drought rainfall by the methodology of L-moment including testing homogeneity, independence and outlier of the data of annual minimum monthly rainfall in 57 rainfall stations in Korea in terms of consecutive duration for 1, 2, 4, 6, 9 and 12 months. To select appropriate distribution of the data for annual minimum monthy rainfall by rainfall station, the distribution of generalized extreme value (GEV), generalized logistic (GLO) as well as that of generalized pareto (GPA) are applied and the appropriateness of the applied GEV, GLO, and GPA distribution is judged by L-moment ratio diagram and Kolmogorov-Smirnov (K-S) test. As for the annual minimum monthly rainfall measured by rainfall station and that stimulated by Monte Carlo techniques, the parameters of the appropriately selected GEV and GPA distributions are calculated by the methodology of L-moment and the design drought rainfall is induced. Through the comparative analysis of design drought rainfall induced by GEV and GPA distribution by rainfall station, the optimal design drought rainfall by rainfall station is provided.

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Statistical Studies on the Derivation of Design Low Flows (I) (설계갈수량의 유도를 위한 수문통계학적 연구 (I))

  • 이순혁;박영근;박종근
    • Magazine of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.34 no.3
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    • pp.43-52
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    • 1992
  • Design low flows were derived from the decision of a best fitting probability distribution and of an optimum transformation method can be contributed to the planning of water utilization and management of various hydraulic structures during dry season in the main river systems in Korea. The results were analyzed and summarized as follows. 1.Basic statistics for the selected watersheds were calculated as one of means for the analysis of extremal distribution. 2.Parameters for the different frequency distributions were calculated by the method of moment. 3.Type m extremal distribution was confirmed as a best one among others for the frequency distribution of the low flows by x$^2$ goodness of fit test. 4.Formulas for the design low flows of the Type m extremal distribution with two and three parameters were dervied for the selected watersheds. 5.Design low flows for the Type m extremal distribution when a minimum drought is zero or larger than zero were derived for the selected watersheds, respectively. 6.Design low flows of the Type m extremal distribution with two parameters are appeared to be reasonable when a minimum drought approaches to zero and the observed low flows varied within a relating small range while those with three parameters are seemed to be consistent with the probability distribution of low flows when a minimum drought is larger than zero and the observed low flows showed a wide range.

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