• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.49 no.10
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• pp.835-849
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• 2016

Accurate drought outlook and drought monitoring have been preceded recently to mitigate drought damages that further deepen. This study improved the limitations of the previous MSWSI (Modified Surface Water Supply Index) used in Korea and carried out probabilistic drought forecasts based on ensemble technique with the improved MSWSI. This study investigated available hydrometeorological components in Geum river basin and supplemented appropriate components (dam water level, dam release discharge) in addition to the four components (streamflow, groundwater, precipitation, dam inflow) usedin the previous MSWSI to each sub-basin. Although normal distribution was fitted in the previous MSWSI, the most suitable probabilistic distributions to each meteorological component were estimated in this study, including Gumbel distribution for precipitation and streamflow data; 2-parameter log-normal distribution for dam inflow, water level, and release discharge data; 3-parameter log-normal distribution for groundwater. To verify the improved MSWSI results using historical precipitation and streamflow, simulated drought situations were used. Results revealed that the improved MSWSI results were closer to actual drought than previous MSWSI results. The probabilistic forecasts based on ensemble technique with improved MSWSI were performed and evaluated in 2006 and 2014. The accuracy of the improved MSWSI was better than the previous MSWSI. Moreover, the drought index of actual drought was included in ranges of drought forecasts using the improved MSWSI.

• Journal of Radiation Industry
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• v.17 no.1
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• pp.83-92
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• 2023

When assessing the risk of radioactive wastes transportation on land, computer codes such as RADTRAN and RISKIND are used as deterministic methods. Transportation risk assessment using the deterministic method requires a relatively short assessment time. On the other hand, transportation risk assessment using the probabilistic method requires a relatively long assessment time, but produces more reliable results. Therefore, a study is needed to evaluate the exposure dose using a deterministic method that can be evaluated relatively quickly, and to compare and analyze the exposure dose result using a probabilistic method. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the exposure dose during transportation of radioactive wastes using deterministic and probabilistic methods, and to compare and analyze them. For this purpose, the main exposure factors were selected and various exposure situations were set. The distance between the radioactive waste and the receptor, the size of the package, and the speed of vehicle were selected as the main exposure factors. The exposure situation was largely divided into when the radioactive wastes were stationary and when they were passing. And the dose (rate) model of the deterministic overland transportation risk assessment computer code was analyzed. Finally, the deterministic method of the RADTRAN computer code and the RISKIND computer code and the probabilistic method of the MCNP 6 computer code were used to evaluate the exposure dose in various exposure situations during transportation of radioactive wastes. Then we compared and analyzed them. As a result of the evaluation, the tendency of the exposure dose (rate) was similar when the radioactive wastes were stationary and passing. For the same situation, the evaluation results of the RADTRAN computer code were generally more conservative than the results of the RISKIND computer code and the MCNP 6 computer code. The evaluation results of the RISKIND computer code and the MCNP 6 computer code were relatively similar. The results of this study are expected to be used as basic data for establishing the radioactive wastes transportation risk assessment system in Korea in the future.

• Journal of the Korean GEO-environmental Society
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• v.13 no.11
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• pp.81-91
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• 2012

This paper mainly deals with the analysis of probabilistic characteristics of the disturbed function proposed to predict dynamic behavior of Geosynthetic-soil interface as the lining and cover systems used in waste landfills. Calibration and statistical property estimation of the parameters in the disturbed function model were first performed using many experimental data obtained from a new multi-purpose interface apparatus (M-PIA). In order to analyze the effect due to changes in chemical degradation and normal loads condition, probabilistic properties such as mean, coefficient of variation and distribution type of the disturbed function were evaluated using both the LHS method known to be a very efficient sampling scheme and the estimated statistical property of A and Z. As a result, variation of the disturbed function is found to range approximately from 10~28% according to the level of ${\xi}_D$ and Weibull appears to be the most adequate distribution type at almost all levels of ${\xi}_D$. It is concluded that a probabilistic safety assessment method for Geosynthetic-soil interface considering uncertainty in shear strength can be developed by utilizing probabilistic properties of the disturbed function obtained in this study.

• Korean Journal of Cognitive Science
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• v.17 no.4
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• pp.303-321
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• 2006

According to Harris'(1966) distributional hypothesis, understanding the meaning of a word is thought to be dependent on its context. Under this hypothesis about human language ability, this paper proposes a computational model for native speaker's language processing mechanism concerning word sense disambiguation, based on two sets of experiments. Among the three computational models discussed in this paper, namely, the logic model, the probabilistic model, and the probabilistic inference model, the experiment shows that the logic model is first applied fer semantic disambiguation of the key word. Nexr, if the logic model fails to apply, then the probabilistic model becomes most relevant. The three models were also compared with the test results in terms of Pearson correlation coefficient value. It turns out that the logic model best explains the human decision behaviour on the ambiguous words, and the probabilistic inference model tomes next. The experiment consists of two pans; one involves 30 sentences extracted from 1 million graphic-word corpus, and the result shows the agreement rate anong native speakers is at 98% in terms of word sense disambiguation. The other pm of the experiment, which was designed to exclude the logic model effect, is composed of 50 cleft sentences.

• Journal of Science Education
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• v.33 no.1
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• pp.69-76
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• 2009

Probabilistic reasoning and combinational reasoning are essential to build a logical thinking and a process of thinking dealing with everyday life as well as scientific knowledge. This research aims at finding the optimal period to teach reasoning to the students who haven't developed probabilistic reasoning and combinational reasoning. The treatment program was performed for 20 students from each grade who couldn't develop two parts of reasoning. The treatment program using baduk stones and cards was performed repeatedly, focusing on the specific activities. After four weeks of treatment program, the test to check the development of probabilistic reasoning and combinational reasoning was performed again and the changes of reasoning development were identified. After giving treatment program for reasoning development, 15.0%, 25.0% and 40.0% of improvement in the 4th, the 5th, the 6th graders respectively were shown. With regard to the combinational reasoning, the results showed the improvement of 20.0% in the 4th grades, 25.0% in the 5th graders and 63.2% in the 6th graders. As a result of research in the above, students, who were not formed probabilistic reasoning and combinational reasoning, could be known to be enhanced through learning, but to fail to be formed the qualitative change like the cognitive development. It is expected that this research can contribute to the improvement of students' cognitive level and there would be more active researches in different fields to improve the cognitive level of the 6th graders who are in their optimal periods to learn two parts of reasoning.

• Proceedings of the Korean Geotechical Society Conference
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• 2000.03b
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• pp.125-132
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• 2000

This study presents the application of genetic algorithms(GA) to the back analysis of tunnels. GA based on the theory of natural evolution, and have been evaluated very effective for their robust performances, particularly for optimizing structure problems. In the back analysis method, the selection of initial value and uncertainty of field measurements influence significantly on the analysis result. GA can improve this problems through a probabilistic approach. Besides, this technique have two other advantages over the back analysis. One is that it is not significantly affected by the form of problems. Another one is that it can consider two known parameter simultaneously. The propriety of this study is verified as the comparison in the same condition of the back analysis(Gens et al, 1987). In this study, it was performed to estimated the geotechnical parameters in the case of weak rock mass at the Kyung Bu Express railway tunnel. GA have been shown for effective application to a geotechnical engineering.

• Journal of Construction Engineering and Project Management
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• v.6 no.3
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• pp.14-21
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• 2016

One of the major issues in the material-based or acceptance quality characteristics asphalt pavement Quality Assurance (QA) is that the method does not have rationality to link between the individual materials and the projected performance of the pavement. A new asphalt mix QA method has been recently developed under a national research project using the probabilistic Performance Related Specification (PRS). This advanced PRS QA methodology integrates the AASHTOWare Pavement ME Design$^{(R)}$ technology with the simple performance test concept that bridges the material characteristics with the pavement performance. This paper presents a case study of asphalt pavement performance using the developed PRS QA computer program, named Quality Related Specification Software (QRSS), with an actual pavement project, to demonstrate the developed PRS procedure and to assess the robustness of QRSS in terms of the rationality of the distress predictions. The results of this limited case study show that the new PRS QA method reasonably predicts the pavement performance, properly applied the probabilistic methods, and produced rational pay adjustment.

• Proceedings of the KSR Conference
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• 2005.05a
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• pp.574-580
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• 2005

Recently, the number of bridges and tunnels in railway is increasing due to the super high-speedy of train. Also, because of successively accidents of civil structures such as bridges and dams, the importance of maintenance become influential. The purpose of this study is to show the probabilistic life cycle cost analysis technique(PLCC) of the railroad bridge as pubic-infrastructures, and reasonably to indicate the economy in life cycle cost(LCC) through a case study. Rationally for life cycle cost analysis, the data gathered through many materials considered the uncertainty such as covariance. As a result, it is indicated that prestressed concrete bridge is pretty more cost-effective during life-cycle than preflex as well as steel box bridge. In future, if the construction of database and maintenance materials for railroad infrastructure is actualized, the life cycle cost analysis for railroad can be conducted easily and practically.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Building Construction Conference
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• 2017.11a
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• pp.7-8
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• 2017

As the importance of maintenance of reinforced concrete structure recently has emerged, the attention of durability of structure has been increasing. There are many studies about durability decline especially due to the carbonation. In order to study carbonation progress after surface repair of carbonated concrete, each carbonation penetration velocity from different repair materials of concrete structure is compared through the experiment of carbonation accelerating CO₂ concentration to 5%. As carbonation infiltration progress is predicted through this study, the counterplan of service life evaluation will be prepared on selection of repair materials of concrete structure.

• Journal of the Korea Institute of Military Science and Technology
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• v.24 no.4
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• pp.449-456
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• 2021

Impatience characteristics are an important factor to be considered in the defense field, which is sensitive to time, but there are not many cases applied. In addition, due to the difficulty of analysis that must consider various probabilistic factors (breakdown/maintenance distribution, impatience characteristics, etc.), military decision makers consider only simple data (number of occurrences per year, maintenance time, etc.) Therefore, in this study, a model capable of analyzing the performance of the emergency maintenance system for determining the appropriate size and organization of military and civilian maintenance personnel was presented in consideration of impatience characteristics and probabilistic factors. And through numerical analysis, the appropriate size of the military and civilian emergency maintenance teams was analyzed. This study is significant in that it can improve readiness of operational power and prevent waste of defense budget through efficient operation of the military's emergency maintenance system.