• Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers
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• v.18 no.10
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• pp.2495-2500
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• 1994

A method of prediction for the fatigue life of surface crack, that is, initial cracks grow and penetrate through the thickness, was presented in the previous study of the author. Effects of parameters such as the initial crack length, material factors, etc., for the life were discussed. In this paper, the probabilistic distribution of the life is calculated. Effects of the distribution of parameters for the distribution of life were also discussed.

• Proceedings of the KSME Conference
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• 2000.04a
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• pp.132-137
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• 2000

In this study, model for arrest toughness is proposed in consideration of fracture behavior of composite materials. Also, the probabilistic model is proposed to describe the variability of arrest toughness due to the nonhomogeneity of material. For these models. experiments were conducted on the Carbon/Epoxy composite plates with various thickness using the impact hammer. The elastic work fatter used in J-Integral is applicable to the evaluation of energy release rate. The fracture behavior call be described by crack arrest concept and the arrest toughness is independent of the delamination size. Additionally, a probabilistic characteristics of arrest toughness is well described by the Weibull distribution function. An increasing of thickness raises a variation of arrest toughness.

• Computers and Concrete
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• v.21 no.4
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• pp.419-429
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• 2018

Climate changes, such as increasing of $CO_2$ concentration and global warming, will impact on the carbonation service life of concrete structures. Moreover, slag blended concrete has a lower carbonation resistance than control concrete. This study presents a probabilistic numerical procedure for evaluating the impact of climate change on carbonation service life of slag blended concrete. This numerical procedure considers both corrosion initiation period and corrosion propagation period. First, in corrosion initiation period, by using an integrated hydration-carbonation model, the amount of carbonatable substances, porosity, and carbonation depth are calculated. The probability of corrosion initiation is determined through Monte Carlo method. Second, in corrosion propagation period, a probabilistic model is proposed to calculate the critical corrosion degree at surface cracking, the probability of surface cracking, and service life. Third, based on the service life in corrosion initiation period and corrosion propagation period, the whole service life is calculated. The analysis shows that for concrete structures with 50 years service life, after considering climate changes, the service life reduces about 7%.

• International Journal of Highway Engineering
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• v.8 no.2 s.28
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• pp.49-54
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• 2006

The purpose of this study was to determine the effect of expansion joint spacing (slab size) on the life cycle costs of owning Portland Cement Concrete (PCC) airfield pavements. Previous research has shown that slab size has a statistically significant impact on pavement performance. A probabilistic life cycle cost analysis was performed to determine if the effect of slab size on pavement performance would affect the total cost of ownership of PCC pavements. Data from 48 Pavement Condition Index (PCI) inspections of military and civilian airfields were used to develop probability-of-distress-by-condition curves, which were then used to develop probabilistic cost-of-repair-by-condition curves. A present worth life cycle cost analysis was then performed for various slab sizes, using construction costs, rehabilitation costs, and maintenance costs. Maintenance costs were determined by assuming a condition deterioration rate appropriate for each slab size and applying the cost-by-condition curves. The probabilistic cost-of-repair-by-condition curves indicated that smaller slabs are more expensive to repair on a unit cost basis. Life cycle cost analysis showed that larger slabs have a higher total cost of ownership than smaller slabs due to a faster rate of deterioration.

• The Transactions of The Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
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• v.57 no.12
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• pp.2153-2160
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• 2008

This paper develops an algorithm for probabilistic production cost credit evaluation of wind turbine generators(WTG) with multi-state. Renewable energy resources such as wind, wave, solar, micro hydro, tidal and biomass etc. are becoming importance stage by stage because of considering effect of the environment. Wind energy is one of the most successful sources of renewable energy for the production of electrical energy. Case study demonstrates that the wind speed credit in view point of economics can be assessed by using the proposed methodology.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• v.31 no.2
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• pp.153-162
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• 2009

The reduction of the dynamic response of an offshore structure subjected to wind-generated random ocean waves is of extreme significance in the aspects of serviceability, fatigue life and safety of the structure. In this study, a new neuro-control scheme is applied to the vibration control of a fixed offshore platform under random wave loads to examine the applicability of the proposed method. It is called the Lattice Probabilistic Neural Network (LPNN), as it utilizes lattice pattern of state vectors as the training data of PNN. When control results of the LPNN are compared with those of the NN and PNN, LPNN showed better performance in effectively suppressing the structural responses in a shorter computational time.

• Proceedings of the KSME Conference
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• 2004.04a
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• pp.234-239
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• 2004

A study on the probabilistic methodology for the estimation of the remaining life of Pressurized pipelines containing active corrosion defects is presented. This reliability assessment is earned out using extream value distribution of the corroded defects instead of already published failure perssure moded like NG18 or ASME B31G. The failure probability of pipelines depends on the number of corroded defects. and it could be calculated directly as the area exceeded a defined L V(Limited Value of corrosion depth). The remaining life of pressurized pipelines can also be estimated by the PDF of extream value distribution as calculating the exceeded area with a defined failure probability.

• Journal of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea
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• v.23 no.6
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• pp.667-673
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• 2010

Recently, structures are becoming longer and higher because of the developments of new materials and construction techniques. However, such modern structures are more susceptible to excessive structural vibrations which cause deterioration in serviceability and structural safety. A modified probabilistic neural network(MPNN) approach is proposed to reduce the structural vibration. In this study, the global probability density function(PDF) of MPNN is reflected by summing the heterogeneous local PDFs automatically determined in the individual standard deviation of each variable. The proposed algorithm is applied for the vibration control of a three-story shear building model under Northridge earthquake. When the control results of the MPNN are compared with those of conventional PNN to verify the control performance, the MPNN controller proves to be more effective than PNN methods in decreasing the structural responses.

• Journal of Korean Institute of Industrial Engineers
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• v.42 no.4
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• pp.249-255
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• 2016

Recently, transaction data is accumulated everywhere very rapidly. Association analysis methods are usually applied to analyze transaction data, but the methods have several problems. For example, these methods can only consider one-way relations among items and cannot reflect domain knowledge into analysis process. In order to overcome defect of association analysis methods, we suggest a transaction data analysis method based on probabilistic graphical model (PGM) in this study. The method we suggest has several advantages as compared with association analysis methods. For example, this method has a high flexibility, and can give a solution to various probability problems regarding the transaction data with relationships among items.

• Journal of Electrical Engineering and Technology
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• v.13 no.4
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• pp.1494-1503
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• 2018

This paper proposes a novel probabilistic load flow model for power systems integrated with large-scale wind power, which considers the multi-time scale dispatching features. The ramp limitations of the units and the steady-state security constraints of the network have been comprehensively considered for the entire duration of the study period; thus, the coupling of the system operation states at different time sections has been taken into account. For each time section, the automatic generation control (AGC) strategy is considered, and all variations associated with the wind power and loads are compensated by all AGC units. Cumulants and the Gram-Charlier expansion are used to solve the proposed model. The effectiveness of the proposed method is validated using the modified IEEE RTS 24-bus system and the modified IEEE 118-bus system.