• Journal of the Korea Concrete Institute
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• v.21 no.6
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• pp.681-688
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• 2009

The railroad bridges have been usually experienced by vibration and impact in service state. With this reason, it is important that the effective strengthening capacity should be considered to resist the kind of service loading. In this study, NSM strengthening technique is recommended for the concrete railroad bridge because of its better effective resistance for dynamic loading condition and strengthening cost than the conventional externally bonded strengthening using fiber sheet. However, to widely apply NSM method for the concrete railroad bridge, it needs that the strengthening ratio has to be reasonably evaluated with geometrical and material uncertainties, especially for the concrete bridge under long-term service state without the apparent design history and detail information such as concrete compressive strength, reinforcing ratio, railroad characteristics. The purpose of this study is to propose the critical strengthening ratio of CFRP plate for the targeted concrete railroad bridge with uncertainties of deterioration of the structures. To do this, Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) for geometrical and material uncertainties have been applied so that this approach may bring the reasonable strengthening ratio of CFRP plate considering probabilistic uncertainties for the targeted concrete railroad bridge. Finally, the critical strengthening ratio of NSM strengthened by CFRP plate is calculated by using the limit state function based on the target reliability index of 3.5.

• The Journal of Engineering Geology
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• v.14 no.4 s.41
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• pp.443-450
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• 2004

This study developed a prediction model of debris flow to predict a landslide probability on natural terrain composed of the Tertiary sedimentary and volcanic rocks using a logistic regression analysis. The landslides data were collected around Pohang, Gyeongbuk province where more than 100 landslides were occurred in 1998. Considered with basic characteristics of the logistic regression analysis, field survey and laboratory soil tests were performed for both slided points and not-slided points. The final iufluential factors on landslides were selected as six factors by the logistic regression analysis. The six factors are composed of two topographic factors and four geologic factors. The developed landslide prediction model has more than $90\%$ of prediction accuracy. Therefore, it is possible to make probabilistic and quantitative prediction of landslide occurrence using the developed model in this study area as well as the previously developed model for metamorphic and granitic rocks.

• Economic and Environmental Geology
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• v.43 no.4
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• pp.381-391
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• 2010

Probabilistic prediction methods of landslides which have been developed in recent can be reliable with premise of detailed survey and analysis based on deep and special knowledge. However, landslide susceptibility should also be analyzed with some reliable and simple methods by various people such as government officials and engineering geologists who do not have deep statistical knowledge at the moment of hazards. Therefore, this study suggests an evaluation chart of landslide susceptibility with high reliability drawn by accurate statistical approaches, which the chart can be understood easily and utilized for both specialists and non-specialists. The evaluation chart was developed by a quantification method based on canonical correlation analysis using the data of geology, topography, and soil property of landslides in Korea. This study analyzed field data and laboratory test results and determined influential factors and rating values of each factor. The quantification analysis result shows that slope angle has the highest significance among the factors and elevation, permeability coefficient, porosity, lithology, and dry density are important in descending order. Based on the score assigned to each evaluation factor, an evaluation chart of landslide susceptibility was developed with rating values in each class of a factor. It is possible for an analyst to identify susceptibility degree of a landslide by checking each property of an evaluation factor and calculating sum of the rating values. This result can also be used to draw landslide susceptibility maps based on GIS techniques.

• Journal of Integrative Natural Science
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• v.4 no.2
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• pp.149-157
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• 2011

Urbanization of the world's population has given rise to more than 450 cities around the world with populations in excess of 1 million (megacity) and more than 25 so-called metacities with populations over 10 million (Brinkhoff, 2010). The United States today has a total resident population of more than 308,500,000 people, with 81 percent residing in cities and suburbs as of mid - 2005 (UN, 2008). Urban meteorology is the study of the physics, dynamics, and chemistry of the interactions of Earth's atmosphere and the urban built environment, and the provision of meteorological services to the populations and institutions of metropolitan areas. While the details of such services are dependent on the location and the synoptic climatology of each city, there are common themes, such as enhancing quality of life and responding to emergencies. Experience elsewhere (e.g., Shanghai, Helsinki, Tokyo, Seoul, etc.) shows urban meteorological support is a key part of an integrated or multi-hazard warning system that considers the full range of environmental challenges and provides a unified response from municipal leaders. Urban meteorology has come to require much more than observing and forecasting the weather of our cities and metropolitan areas. Forecast improvement as a function of more and better observations of various kinds and as a function of model resolution, larger ensembles, predicted probability distributions; Responses of emergency managers, government officials, and users to improved and probabilistic forecasts; Benefits of improved forecasts in reduction of loss of life, property damage, and other adverse effects. A national initiative to enhance urban meteorological services is a high-priority need for a wide variety of stakeholders, including the general, commerce and industry, and all levels of government. Some of the activities of such an initiative include: conducting basic research and development; prototyping and other activities to enable very--short and short range predictions; supporting and improving productivity and efficiency in commercial and industrial sectors; and urban planning for long term sustainability. In addition urban test-beds are an effective means for developing, testing, and fostering the necessary basic and applied meteorological and socioeconomic research, and transitioning research findings to operations. An extended, multi-year period of continuous effort, punctuated with intensive observing and forecasting periods, is envisioned.

• Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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• v.7 no.2
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• pp.47-56
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• 2004

The purpose of this study is to estimate soil loss amount according to the rainfall-runoff erosivity factor frequency and to analyze the hazard zone that has high possibilities of soil erosion in the watershed. RUSLE was used to analyze soil loss quantity. The study area is Gwanchon that is part of Seomjin river basin. To obtain the frequency rainfall-runoff erosivity factor, the daily maximum rainfall data for 39 years was used. The probability rainfall was calculated by using the Normal distribution, Log-normal distribution, Pearson type III distribution, Log-Pearson type III distribution and Extreme-I distribution. Log-Pearson type III was considered to be the most accurate of all, and used to estimate 24 hours probabilistic rainfall, and the rainfall-runoff erosivity factor by frequency was estimated by adapting the Huff distribution ratio. As a result of estimating soil erosion quantity, the average soil quantity shows 12.8 and $68.0ton/ha{\cdot}yr$, respectively from 2 years to 200 years frequency. The distribution of soil loss quantity within a watershed was classified into 4 classes, and the hazard zone that has high possibilities of soil erosion was analyzed on the basis of these 4 classes. The hazard zone represents class IV. The land use area of class IV shows $0.01-5.28km^2$, it ranges 0.02-9.06% of total farming area. Especially, in the case of a frequency of 200 years, the field area occupies 77.1% of total fanning area. Accordingly, it is considered that soil loss can be influenced by land cover and cultivation practices.

• Journal of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea
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• v.27 no.6
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• pp.517-524
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• 2014

The ultimate goal of seismic design is to reduce the probable losses or damages occurred during an expected earthquake event. To achieve this goal, this study represents a procedure that can estimate annual loss probability of a structure damaged by strong ground motion. First of all, probabilistic seismic performance assessment should be performed using seismic fragility analyses that are presented by a cumulative distribution function of the probability in each exceedance structural damage state. A seismic hazard curve is then derived from an annual frequency of exccedance per each ground motion intensity. An annual loss probability function is combined with seismic fragility analysis results and seismic hazard curves. In this paper, annual loss probabilities are estimated by the structural fragility curve of steel moment-resisting frames(SMRFs) in San Francisco Bay, USA, and are compared with loss estimation results obtained from the HAZUS methodology. It is investigated from the comparison that seismic losses of the SMRFs calculated from the HAZUS method are conservatively estimated. The procedure presented in this study could be effectively used for future studies related with structural seismic performance assessment and annual loss probability estimation.

• Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
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• v.15 no.2
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• pp.43-51
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• 2011

Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA), which can effectively apply inevitable uncertainties in seismic data, considers a number of seismotectonic models and attenuation equations. The calculated hazard by PSHA is generally a value dependent on peak ground acceleration (PGA) and expresses the value as an annual exceedance probability. To represent the uncertainty range of a hazard which has occurred using various seismic data, a hazard curve figure shows both a mean curve and percentile curves (15, 50, and 85). The percentile performs an important role in that it indicates the uncertainty range of the calculated hazard, could be calculated using various methods by the relation of the weight and hazard. This study using the weight accumulation method, the weighted hazard method, the maximum likelihood method, and the moment method, has calculated the percentile of the computed hazard by PSHA on the Shinuljin 1, 2 site. The calculated percentile using the weight accumulation method, the weighted hazard method, and the maximum likelihood method, have similar trends and represent the range of all computed hazards by PSHA. The calculated percentile using the moment method effectively showed the range of hazards at the source which includes a site. This study suggests the moment method as effective percentile calculation method considering the almost same mean hazard for the seismotectonic model and a source which includes a site.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.53 no.11
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• pp.1025-1037
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• 2020

This study attempted to evaluate the spatial characteristics and applicability of the predicted ensemble rainfall data used for heavy rain alarms. Limited area ENsemble prediction System (LENS) has 13 rainfall ensemble members, so it is possible to use a probabilistic method in issuing heavy rain warnings. However, the accessibility of LENS data is very low, so studies on the applicability of rainfall prediction data are insufficient. In this study, the evaluation index was calculated by comparing one point value and the area average value with the observed value according to the heavy rain warning system used for each administrative district. In addition, the accuracy of each ensemble member according to the LENS issuance time was evaluated. LENS showed the uncertainty of over or under prediction by member. Area-based prediction showed higher predictability than point-based prediction. In addition, the LENS data that predicts the upcoming 72-hour rainfall showed good predictive performance for rainfall events that may have an impact on a water disaster. In the future, the predicted rainfall data from LENS are expected to be used as basic data to prepare for floods in administrative districts or watersheds.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.50 no.8
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• pp.551-562
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• 2017

In order to utilize 6-month precipitation forecasts (6 months at maximum) of Global Seasonal Forecast System version 5 (GloSea5), which is being provided by KMA (Korea Meteorological Administration) since 2014, for water resources management as well as other applications, it is needed to correct the forecast model's quantitative bias against observations. This study evaluated applicability of bias-correction skill in GloSea5 and selected an optimal method among 11 techniques that include probabilistic distribution type based, parametric, and non-parametric bias-correction to fix GloSea5's bias in precipitation forecasts. Non-parametric bias-correction provided the most similar results with observed data compared to other techniques in hindcast for the past events, yet relatively generated some discrepancies in forecast. On the contrary, parametric bias-correction produced the most reliable results in both hindcast and forecast periods. The results of this study are expected to be applicable to various applications using seasonal forecast model such as water resources operation and management, hydropower, agriculture, etc.

• Fire Science and Engineering
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• v.26 no.4
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• pp.31-41
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• 2012

This study collected 5,100 cases of gas accident occurred in Korea for 14 years from 1995 to 2008, established Database and based on it, analyzed them by detailed forms and reasons. As the result of analyzing the whole city gas accidents with Poisson analysis, the item of "Careless work-Explosion-Pipeline' showed the highest rate of accidents for the next 5 years. And, "Joint Losening and corrosion-Release-Pipeline" showed the lowest rate of accident. In addition, for the result of analyzing only accidents related to LPG vaporizer, "LPG-Vaporizer-Fire" showed the highest rate of accident and "LPG-Vaporizer-Products Faults" showed the lowest rate of accident. Also, as the result of comparing and analyzing foreign LPG accident accompanied by Jet fire, facility's defect which is liquid outflow cut-off device and heat exchanger's defect were analyzed as the main reason causing jet fire, like the case of Korea, but the number of accidents for the next 5 years was the highest in "LPG-Mechanical-Jet fire" and "LPG-Mechanical-Vapor Cloud" showed the highest rate of accidents. By grafting Poisson distribution theory onto gas accident expecting program of the future, it's expected to suggest consistent standard and be used as the scale which can be used in actual field.