• Title/Summary/Keyword: probabilistic study

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Post Closure Long Term Safely of the Initial Container Failure Scenario for a Potential HLW Repository (고준위 방사성폐기물 처분장 불량 용기 발생 시나리오에 대한 폐쇄후 장기 방사선적 안전성 평가)

  • 황용수;서은진;이연명;강철형
    • Journal of Nuclear Fuel Cycle and Waste Technology(JNFCWT)
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    • v.2 no.2
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    • pp.105-112
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    • 2004
  • A waste container, one of the key components of a multi-barrier system in a potential high level radioactive waste (HLW) repository in Korea ensures the mechanical stability against the lithostatic pressure of a deep geologic medium and the swelling pressure of the bentonite buffer. Also, it delays potential release of radionuclides for a certain period of time, before it is corroded by intruding impurities. Even though the material of a waste container is carefully chosen and its manufacturing processes are under quality assurance processes, there is a possibility of initial defects in a waste container during manufacturing. Also, during the deposition of a waste container in a repository, there is a chance of an incident affecting the integrity of a waste container. In this study, the appropriate Features, Events, and Processes(FEP's) to describe these incidents and the associated scenario on radionuclide release from a container to the biosphere are developed. Then the total system performance assessment on the Initial waste Container Failure (ICF) scenario was carried out by the MASCOT-K, one of the probabilistic safety assessment tools KAERI has developed. Results show that for the data set used in this paper, the annual individual dose for the ICF scenario meets the Korean regulation on the post closure radiological safety of a repository.

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Statistical Evaluation for Residual Strength of Impacted Composite Materials (충격손상 복합재료의 잔류강도저하거동에 대한 통계적 평가)

  • Kang, Ki-Weon;Lee, Seung-Pyo;Lee, Jin-Soo;Koh, Byung-Kab
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.11 no.2
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    • pp.426-434
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    • 2010
  • This study is experimentally performed to evaluate the strength reduction behavior and its statistical properties of plain woven glass/epoxy composites. The results indicate that the major impact damage of plain woven glass/epoxy composites is the fiber breakage and matrix crack, whereas the dominant impact damage of unidirectional carbon/epoxy laminates is the delamination, which depends on the stacking sequence. The residual strength prediction models, previously proposed on unidirectional laminates, are applied to evaluate the residual strength of plain woven glass/epoxy composites with impact damage. Among these models, the results by Caprino and Avva's model have a good agreement with the experimental results. To investigate the variability of residual strength of the impacted composite materials, a statistical model was proposed and its results were in conformance with the experimental results regardless of their thickness.

Statistical Properties of Geomagnetic Activity Indices and Solar Wind Parameters

  • Kim, Jung-Hee;Chang, Heon-Young
    • Journal of Astronomy and Space Sciences
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    • v.31 no.2
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    • pp.149-157
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    • 2014
  • As the prediction of geomagnetic storms is becoming an important and practical problem, conditions in the Earth's magnetosphere have been studied rigorously in terms of those in the interplanetary space. Another approach to space weather forecast is to deal with it as a probabilistic geomagnetic storm forecasting problem. In this study, we carry out detailed statistical analysis of solar wind parameters and geomagnetic indices examining the dependence of the distribution on the solar cycle and annual variations. Our main findings are as follows: (1) The distribution of parameters obtained via the superimposed epoch method follows the Gaussian distribution. (2) When solar activity is at its maximum the mean value of the distribution is shifted to the direction indicating the intense environment. Furthermore, the width of the distribution becomes wider at its maximum than at its minimum so that more extreme case can be expected. (3) The distribution of some certain heliospheric parameters is less sensitive to the phase of the solar cycle and annual variations. (4) The distribution of the eastward component of the interplanetary electric field BV and the solar wind driving function BV2, however, appears to be all dependent on the solar maximum/minimum, the descending/ascending phases of the solar cycle and the equinoxes/solstices. (5) The distribution of the AE index and the Dst index shares statistical features closely with BV and $BV^2$ compared with other heliospheric parameters. In this sense, BV and $BV^2$ are more robust proxies of the geomagnetic storm. We conclude by pointing out that our results allow us to step forward in providing the occurrence probability of geomagnetic storms for space weather and physical modeling.

Dynamic Response based Reliability Analysis of Structure with Passive Damper - Part 1: Assessment of Member Failure Probability (수동형 댐퍼를 장착한 구조물의 동적응답기반 신뢰성 해석 - 제1편: 부재별 파괴확률 산정)

  • Kim, Seung-Min;Ok, Seung-Yong
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.31 no.4
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    • pp.90-96
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    • 2016
  • This study proposes a dynamic reliability analysis of control system as a method of quantitative evaluation of its performance in probabilistic terms. In this dynamic reliability analysis, the failure event is defined as an event that the dynamic response of the structural system exceeds a displacement limit, whereas the conventional reliability analysis method has limitations that do not properly assess the actual time history response of the structure subjected to dynamic loads, such as earthquakes and high winds, by taking the static response into account in the failure event. In this first paper, we discuss the control effect of the viscous damper on the seismic performance of the member-level failure where the failure event of the structural member consists of the union set of time-sequential member failures during the earthquake excitations and the failure probability of the earthquake-excited structural member is computed using system reliability approach to consider the statistical dependence of member failures between the subsequent time points. Numerical results demonstrate that the proposed approach can present a reliable assessment of the control performance of the viscous damper system in comparison with MCS method. The most important advantage of the proposed approach can provide us more accurate estimate of failure probability of the structural control system by using the actual time-history responses obtained by dynamic response analysis.

An Analysis of the Applications of the Language Models for Information Retrieval (정보검색에서의 언어모델 적용에 관한 분석)

  • Kim Heesop;Jung Youngmi
    • Journal of Korean Library and Information Science Society
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    • v.36 no.2
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    • pp.49-68
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    • 2005
  • The purpose of this study is to examine the research trends and their experiment results on the applications of the language models for information retrieval. We reviewed the previous studies with the following categories: (1) the first generation of language modeling information retrieval (LMIR) experiments which are mainly focused on comparing the language modeling information retrieval with the traditional retrieval models in their retrieval performance, and (2) the second generation of LMIR experiments which are focused on comparing the expanded language modeling information retrieval with the basic language models in their retrieval performance. Through the analysis of the previous experiments results, we found that (1) language models are outperformed the probabilistic model or vector space model approaches, and (2) the expended language models demonstrated better results than the basic language models in their retrieval performance.

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Development of Application Method of Influent Wastewater Generation and Activated Sludge Process Design Based on Probability Density Function (확률밀도함수 기반 유입하수 재현 및 활성슬러지공정 설계기법 개발)

  • You, Kwangtae;Kim, Jongrack;Yun, Zuhwan;Pak, Gijung
    • Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
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    • v.33 no.2
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    • pp.140-148
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    • 2017
  • An important factor in determining the design and treatment efficiency of wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) is the quantity and quality of influent. These detailed and accurate information is essential for process control, diagnosis and operation, as well as the basis in designing the plant, selecting the process and determining the optimal capacity of each bioreactor. Probabilistic models are used to predict the wastewater quantity and quality of WWTPs, which are widely used to improve the design and operation of WWTPs. In this study, the optimal probability distribution of time series influent data was derived for predicting water quantity and quality, and wastewater influent data were generated using the Monte Carlo simulation analysis. In addition, we estimated various alternatives for the improvement of bioreactor operations based on present operation condition using the generated influent data and activated sludge model, and suggested the alternative that can operate the most effectively. Thus, the influent quantity and quality are highly correlated with the actual operation data, so that the actual WWTPs influent characteristics were well reproduced. Using this will improve the operating conditions of WWTPs, and a proposed improvement plan for the current TMS (Tele Monitoring System) effluent quality standards can be made.

Method for Designing VMS Messages Based on Drivers' Legibility Performance (운전자 판독능력을 고려한 VMS 메시지 설계 방법론 개발 및 적용)

  • Kim, Seong-Min;O, Cheol;Jang, Myeong-Sun;Kim, Tae-Hyeong
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.25 no.3
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    • pp.99-109
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    • 2007
  • Variable message signs (VMS), which are used for providing real-time information on traffic conditions and accident occurrences, are one of the important components of intelligent transportation systems VMS messages need to meet human factor requirements: messages should be readable and understandable while driving. Lab-controlled experiments on VMS messages were conducted to obtain useful data for analyzing drivers' responsive characteristics for VMS messages. Binary logistic regression (BLR) modeling techniques were applied to explore the relationships among drivers' message perceptions, message reading time, and amount of VMS messages. Probabilistic outcomes of the proposed BLR-based perception model could be greatly utilized to design VMS messages considering drivers' legibility performance. The major contribution of this study is to develop invaluable statistical models that can be used in designing VMS messages more effectively from the human factor point of view. The results could be further applied to establish the scheme of VMS message phase and duration.

A Probabilistic Approach for Mobile Robot Localization under RFID Tag Infrastructures

  • Seo, Dae-Sung;Won, Dae-Heui;Yang, Gwang-Woong;Choi, Moo-Sung;Kwon, Sang-Ju;Park, Joon-Woo
    • 제어로봇시스템학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 2005.06a
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    • pp.1797-1801
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    • 2005
  • SLAM(Simultaneous localization and mapping) and AI(Artificial intelligence) have been active research areas in robotics for two decades. In particular, localization is one of the most important issues in mobile robot research. Until now expensive sensors like a laser sensor have been used for the mobile robot's localization. Currently, as the RFID reader devices like antennas and RFID tags become increasingly smaller and cheaper, the proliferation of RFID technology is advancing rapidly. So, in this paper, the smart floor using passive RFID tags is proposed and, passive RFID tags are mainly used to identify the mobile robot's location on the smart floor. We discuss a number of challenges related to this approach, such as RFID tag distribution (density and structure), typing and clustering. In the smart floor using RFID tags, because the reader just can senses whether a RFID tag is in its sensing area, the localization error occurs as much as the sensing area of the RFID reader. And, until now, there is no study to estimate the pose of mobile robot using RFID tags. So, in this paper, two algorithms are suggested to. We use the Markov localization algorithm to reduce the location(X,Y) error and the Kalman Filter algorithm to estimate the pose(q) of a mobile robot. We applied these algorithms in our experiment with our personal robot CMR-P3. And we show the possibility of our probability approach using the cheap sensors like odometers and RFID tags for the mobile robot's localization on the smart floor.

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An Experimental Study on the Effect of Vegetation Roots on Slope Stability of Hillside Slopes (뿌리의 강도가 자연사면 안정에 미치는 영향에 관한 실험연구)

  • Lee, In-Mo;Seong, Sang-Gyu;Im, Chung-Mo
    • Geotechnical Engineering
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    • v.7 no.2
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    • pp.51-66
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    • 1991
  • In the stability analysis of hillside slopes, the roots of vegetation have been considered to act as a soil reinforcement. In order to predict the amount of increase in soil shear resistance, produced by tensile strength of roots that intersect a potential slip surface in hillside slopes, new soil -root interaction models are proposed in this paper. For this purpose, firstly, laboratary teats and in-situ tests wert performed on soil-root systems, and experimental results were compared with a couple of soil-root interaction models which had been proposed by Gray, Waldron, and Wu etc. Based on this comparison, a new soil-root interaction model is proposed. Secondly, a probabilistic soil-root model is proposed based on statistical analysis considering random nature of root distribution, root characteristics, and soil-root interactions. Finally, to examine the effect of this root reinforcement system on stability of hillside slopes, a simple three-dimensional stability analysis was performed, and it was shown that root reinforcement had a significant stabilizing influence on shallow slips rather than deep slips in hillside slopes.

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Initiating Events Study of the First Extraction Cycle Process in a Model Reprocessing Plant

  • Wang, Renze;Zhang, Jiangang;Zhuang, Dajie;Feng, Zongyang
    • Journal of Radiation Protection and Research
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    • v.41 no.2
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    • pp.117-121
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    • 2016
  • Background: Definition and grouping of initiating events (IEs) are important basics for probabilistic safety assessment (PSA). An IE in a spent fuel reprocessing plant (SFRP) is an event that probably leads to the release of dangerous material to jeopardize workers, public and environment. The main difference between SFRPs and nuclear power plants (NPPs) is that hazard materials spread diffusely in a SFRP and radioactive material is just one kind of hazard material. Materials and Methods: Since the research on IEs for NPPs is in-depth around the world, there are several general methods to identify IEs: reference of lists in existence, review of experience feedback, qualitative analysis method, and deductive analysis method. While failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA) is an important qualitative analysis method, master logic diagram (MLD) method is the deductive analysis method. IE identification in SFRPs should be consulted with the experience of NPPs, however the differences between SFRPs and NPPs should be considered seriously. Results and Discussion: The plutonium uranium reduction extraction (Purex) process is adopted by the technics in a model reprocessing plant. The first extraction cycle (FEC) is the pivotal process in the Purex process. Whether the FEC can function safely and steadily would directly influence the production process of the whole plant-production quality. Important facilities of the FEC are installed in the equipment cells (ECs). In this work, IEs in the FEC process were identified and categorized by FMEA and MLD two methods, based on the fact that ECs are containments in the plant. Conclusion: The results show that only two ECs in the FEC do not need to be concerned particularly with safety problems, and criticality, fire and red oil explosion are IEs which should be emphatically analyzed. The results are accordant with the references.