• Title/Summary/Keyword: probabilistic characteristics

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Statistical analyses on the damage consequences of occupational accidents in construction work (건설공사 노동재해의 피해강도 및 규모특성에 관한 통계분석)

  • 최기봉
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.13 no.1
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    • pp.104-111
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    • 1998
  • Statistical analyses of occupational accidents associated with construction work were carried out to explore the basic statistical characteristics of their damage consequences. Emphasis was placed upon the probabilistic and statistical analyses to clarify, in particular, the relationship between frequency of labour accidents and their damage consequences. Damage consequences were classified into two categories such as the number of workdays lost due to accidents and the number of injured workers involved in one accident. Two types of accident data were collected for the analyses. From the analyses, it was found that the relation between damage due to accidents and their frequencies can be represented by a simple power function which indicates a log-log linear relation. By making use of this relationship, various probabilistic evaluations such as the estimation of the mean time periods between accidents, expected damage consequences, and expected damage ratio between different mean time period of accidents were conducted.

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SAFETY ASSESSMENT OF KOREAN NUCLEAR FACILITIES: CURRENT STATUS AND FUTURE

  • Baek, Won-Pil;Yang, Joon-Eon;Ha, Jae-Joo
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.41 no.4
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    • pp.391-402
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    • 2009
  • This paper introduces the development of safety assessment technology in Korea, focusing on the activities of the Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute in the areas of system thermal hydraulics, severe accidents and probabilistic safety assessment. In the 1970s and 1980s, safety analysis codes and methodologies were introduced from the United States, France, Canada and other developed countries along with technology related to the construction and operation of nuclear power plants. The main focus was on understanding and utilizing computer codes that were sourced from abroad up to the early 1990s, when efforts to develop domestic safety analysis codes and methodologies became active. Remarkable achievements have been made over the last 15 years in the development and application of safety analysis technologies. In addition, significant experimental work has been performed to verify the safety characteristics of reactors and fuels as well as to support the development and validation of analysis methods.

A Comparative Study on Optimal Generation Maintenance Scheduling with Marginal Maintenance Cost and Levelized Risk Methods (한계보수비용법 및 위험지수 평준화법에 의한 최적전원보수계획의 비교)

  • 이봉용;심건보
    • The Transactions of the Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
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    • v.41 no.1
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    • pp.9-17
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    • 1992
  • Proper resource allocation is also a very important topic in power system problems, especially in operation and planning. One such is optimal maintenance problem in operation and planning. Least cost and highest reliability should be the subjects to be pursued. A probabilistic operation simulation model developed recently by authors is applied to the proboem of optimal maintenance scheduling. Three different methods are compared, marginal maintenance cost, levelized risk and maintenance space. The method by the marginal maintenance costs shows the least cost, the highest reliability and the highest maintenance outage rates. This latter characteristics may considerably influence the results of genetation planning, because the usual maintenance outages obtained from the other methods have shown to be lower.

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Probabilistic Analysis of Wind Loads (국내 풍하중의 확률적 특성 분석)

  • 김상효;배규웅;박홍석
    • Proceedings of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute Conference
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    • 1990.04a
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    • pp.31-36
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    • 1990
  • The probabilistic characteristics of wind loads have been analyzed using statistical data on wind speeds, pressure coefficient, exposure coefficient, and gust factor. The wind speed data collected in 25 nationwide weather stations have been modified to be consistent in measuring height, exposure condition as well as averaging time, Having performed Monte Carlo simulation for various heights and site conditions, the statistical models of wind loads were determined, in which Type-I extreme value distribution has been applied. The models also incorporate a reduction factor of 0.85 to account for the reduced probability that the maximum wind speed will occur in a direction most unfavorable to the response of structure.

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Multistress Life Models of Epoxy Encapsulated Magnet wire under High Frequency Pulsating Voltage

  • Grzybowski, S.;Feilat, E.A.;Knight, P.
    • KIEE International Transactions on Electrophysics and Applications
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    • v.3C no.1
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    • pp.1-4
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    • 2003
  • This paper presents an attempt to develop probabilistic multistress life models to evaluate the lifetime characteristics of epoxy-encapsulated magnet wire with heavy build polyurethane enamel. A set of accelerated life tests were conducted over a wide range of pulsating voltages, temperatures, and frequencies. Samples of fine gauge twisted pairs of the encapsulated magnet wire were tested us-ing a pulse endurance dielectric test system. An electrical-thermal lifetime function was combined with the Weibull distribution of lifetimes. The parameters of the combined Weibull-electrical-thermal model were estimated using maximum likelihood estimation. Likewise, a generalized electrical-thermal-frequency life model was also developed. The parameters of this new model were estimated using multiple linear regression technique. It was found in this paper that lifetime estimates of the two proposed probabilistic multistress life models are good enough. This suggests the suitability of using the general electrical-thermal-frequency model to estimate the lifetime of the encapsulated magnet wire over a wide range of voltages, temperatures and pulsating frequencies.

AGAPE-ET: A Predictive Human Error Analysis Methodology for Emergency Tasks in Nuclear Power Plants (원자력발전소 비상운전 직무의 인간오류분석 및 평가 방법 AGAPE-ET의 개발)

  • 김재환;정원대
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.18 no.2
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    • pp.104-118
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    • 2003
  • It has been criticized that conventional human reliability analysis (HRA) methodologies for probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) have been focused on the quantification of human error probability (HEP) without detailed analysis of human cognitive processes such as situation assessment or decision-making which are crticial to successful response to emergency situations. This paper introduces a new human reliability analysis (HRA) methodology, AGAPE-ET (A guidance And Procedure for Human Error Analysis for Emergency Tasks), focused on the qualitative error analysis of emergency tasks from the viewpoint of the performance of human cognitive function. The AGAPE-ET method is based on the simplified cognitive model and a taxonomy of influencing factors. By each cognitive function, error causes or error-likely situations have been identified considering the characteristics of the performance of each cognitive function and influencing mechanism of PIFs on the cognitive function. Then, overall human error analysis process is designed considering the cognitive demand of the required task. The application to an emergency task shows that the proposed method is useful to identify task vulnerabilities associated with the performance of emergency tasks.

Signal Synthesis and Feature Extraction for Active Sonar Target Classification (능동소나 표적 인식을 위한 신호합성 및 특징추출)

  • Uh, Y.;Seok, J.W.
    • Journal of Korea Multimedia Society
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    • v.18 no.1
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    • pp.9-16
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    • 2015
  • Various approaches to process active sonar signals are under study, but there are many problems to be considered. The sonar signals are distorted by the underwater environment, and the spatio-temporal and spectral characteristics of active sonar signals change in accordance with the aspect of the target even though they come from the same one. And it has difficulties in collecting actual underwater data. In this paper, we synthesized active target echoes based on ray tracing algorithm using target model having 3-dimensional highlight distribution. Then, Fractional Fourier transform was applied to synthesized target echoes to extract feature vector. Recognition experiment was performed using probabilistic neural network classifier.

Stochastic vibration analysis of functionally graded beams using artificial neural networks

  • Trinh, Minh-Chien;Jun, Hyungmin
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • v.78 no.5
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    • pp.529-543
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    • 2021
  • Inevitable source-uncertainties in geometry configuration, boundary condition, and material properties may deviate the structural dynamics from its expected responses. This paper aims to examine the influence of these uncertainties on the vibration of functionally graded beams. Finite element procedures are presented for Timoshenko beams and utilized to generate reliable datasets. A prerequisite to the uncertainty quantification of the beam vibration using Monte Carlo simulation is generating large datasets, that require executing the numerical procedure many times leading to high computational cost. Utilizing artificial neural networks to model beam vibration can be a good approach. Initially, the optimal network for each beam configuration can be determined based on numerical performance and probabilistic criteria. Instead of executing thousands of times of the finite element procedure in stochastic analysis, these optimal networks serve as good alternatives to which the convergence of the Monte Carlo simulation, and the sensitivity and probabilistic vibration characteristics of each beam exposed to randomness are investigated. The simple procedure presented here is efficient to quantify the uncertainty of different stochastic behaviors of composite structures.

Machine learning-based categorization of source terms for risk assessment of nuclear power plants

  • Jin, Kyungho;Cho, Jaehyun;Kim, Sung-yeop
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.54 no.9
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    • pp.3336-3346
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    • 2022
  • In general, a number of severe accident scenarios derived from Level 2 probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) are typically grouped into several categories to efficiently evaluate their potential impacts on the public with the assumption that scenarios within the same group have similar source term characteristics. To date, however, grouping by similar source terms has been completely reliant on qualitative methods such as logical trees or expert judgements. Recently, an exhaustive simulation approach has been developed to provide quantitative information on the source terms of a large number of severe accident scenarios. With this motivation, this paper proposes a machine learning-based categorization method based on exhaustive simulation for grouping scenarios with similar accident consequences. The proposed method employs clustering with an autoencoder for grouping unlabeled scenarios after dimensionality reductions and feature extractions from the source term data. To validate the suggested method, source term data for 658 severe accident scenarios were used. Results confirmed that the proposed method successfully characterized the severe accident scenarios with similar behavior more precisely than the conventional grouping method.

Numerical Investigation of Residual Strength of Steel Stiffened Panel Exposed to Hydrocarbon Fire

  • Kim, Jeong Hwan;Baeg, Dae Yu;Seo, Jung Kwan
    • Journal of Ocean Engineering and Technology
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    • v.35 no.3
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    • pp.203-215
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    • 2021
  • Current industrial practices and approaches are simplified and do not describe the actual behavior of plated elements of offshore topside structures for safety design due to fires. Therefore, it is better to make up for the defective methods with integrated fire safety design methods based on fire resistance characteristics such as residual strength capacity. This study numerically investigates the residual strength of steel stiffened panels exposed to hydrocarbon jet fire. A series of nonlinear finite element analyses (FEAs) were carried out with varying probabilistic selected exposures in terms of the jet fire location, side, area, and duration. These were used to assess the effects of exposed fire on the residual strength of a steel stiffened panel on a ship-shaped offshore structure. A probabilistic approach with a feasible fire location was used to determine credible fire scenarios in association with thermal structural responses. Heat transfer analysis was performed to obtain the steel temperature, and then the residual strength was obtained for the credible fire scenarios under compressive axial loading using nonlinear FEA code. The results were used to derive closed-form expressions to predict the residual strength of steel stiffened panels with various exposure to jet fire characteristics. The results could be used to assess the sustainability of structures at risk of exposure to fire accidents in offshore installations.