• Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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• v.1 no.1
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• pp.1-21
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• 2006

The ultimate goal of this paper falls on assessing the magnitude of co- evolutionary pattern existing between the genuine growth of KOSDAQ and KOSDAQ-Listed Companies. This paper define the concept of "genuine growth" as including quantitative and qualitative growth of each entities. This paper take genuine growth indexes of KOSDAQ as liquidity, fairness, volatility, transparency, while that of KOSDAQ-Listed Companies as quantitative financial indexes and qualitative financial indexes. This paper brings three research implications as conclusions. First, growth engine of KOSDAQ resulting in its' qualitative growth besides quantitative one is founded on number of KOSDAQ-Listed companies showing outstanding financial performance qualitatively, Second, increasing permanent profit portion of KOSDAQ-Listed Companies have induced a long-term assessed investment rather than short insight speculation in the year of 2005. In addition, source of lowering market volatility and stabilizing market is strongly correlated with the excellency of profit quality among KOSDAQ-Listed Companies. Third, a high adaptability of KOSDAQ-Listed companies meeting with market sustaining requirements enable KOSDAQ to enhance market efficiency.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.29 no.1
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• pp.85-98
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• 2016

This study makes an empirical comparison of various realized volatilities (RVs) in terms of overnight returns. In financial asset markets, during overnight or holidays, no or few trading data are available causing a difficulty in computing RVs for a whole span of a day. A review will be made on several RVs reflecting overnight return variations. The comparison is made for forecast accuracies of several RVs for some financial assets: the US S&P500 index, the US NASDAQ index, the KOSPI (Korean Stock Price Index), and the foreign exchange rate of the Korea won relative to the US dollar. The RV of a day is compared with the square of the next day log-return, which is a proxy for the integrated volatility of the day. The comparison is made by investigating the Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE). Statistical inference of MAE and RMSE is made by applying the model confidence set (MCS) approach and the Diebold-Mariano test. For the three index data, a specific RV emerges as the best one, which addresses overnight return variations by inflating daytime RV.

• Management & Information Systems Review
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• v.38 no.4
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• pp.79-93
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• 2019

This study analyzed the information effect of KOSPI200 market and KOSPI200 futures market and volume synchronized probability of informed trading (VPIN). The data period is 760 days from July 8, 2015 to August 9, 2018, and the intraday trading data is used based on the trading period of the KOSPI 200 Index. The findings of the empirical analysis are as follows. First, as a result of regression analysis of the same parallax, when the level of VPIN is high, the return and volatility of KOSPI200 are high. Second, the KOSPI200 returns before and after the VPIN measurement and the return of the KOSPI200 future had a positive relationship with the VPIN. The cumulative returns of KOSPI200 futures were positive for about 15 minutes.Finally, we find that portfolios with high levels of VPIN showed high KOSPI200 and KOSPI200 futures return. These results confirmed the applicability of VPIN as a trading strategy index. The above results suggest that KOSPI200 and KOSPI200 futures markets will be able to explore volatility and price changes, and also be useful indicators of financial market risk.

• Journal of Energy Engineering
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• v.28 no.3
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• pp.42-54
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• 2019

The solar and wind power is spreading as a means to $CO_2$ reduction, but it has the characteristics of the volatility depending on the weather changes. This article aims to estimate the additional integration costs in Korea electric system in response to such volatility of increasing solar and wind power generation, using Korea electric power trading analyzer(KEPTA). The analysis utilizes the statistics of "8th Basic Plan for Long-term Electricity Supply and Demand" and "Renewable Energy Plan 3020". As the results, integration costs will be estimated 13.94Won/kWh~32.55Won/kWh, consisting of 8.94Won/kWh as back-up costs, 1.03Won/kWh~4.45Won/kWh as balancing costs, and 3.97Won/kWh~19.16Won/kWh as grid-costs. These results suggest that when the integration costs are secured, Korea electric system will be expected in the stable situation. This article leaves the further studies with taking the technological development of solar and wind power generation, the introduction of energy storage system, and wholesale price of electricity into consideration.

• The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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• v.21 no.6
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• pp.588-597
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• 2021

In Korea, the standard for calculating the profit of a general insurance, which constitutes the loading in the premium, is not specified, and most of the non-life insurance companies reflect 2~5% of the premium as profit margin. Although the transparency of pricing is required due to the nature of insurance products, there are insufficient standards and empirical studies on the determination of insurance price factors in the domestic insurance industry. In this study, we propose a method of calculating the expected profit margin of general insurance. A way for calculating the expected profit margin of the general insurance is to reflect the shareholder demand on the capital that the insurance company should secure against the risk of loss due to the profit/loss volatility, as a ratio to the insurance premium. Shareholders should be compensated for the risks associated with their insurance operations, and the opportunity cost of these shareholders is to be reflected in premiums. In this study, we calculate the amount of capital that the company should accumulate to prepare insurance risk for each product, and insurance risk is defined as the volatility of insurance operating profit/loss. And insurance risk is calculated using stochastic simulation based on Dynamic Financial Analysis (DFA) methodology. Finally, we calculate the expected profit margins for 25 products and analyzed the difference between those and the profit ratio of domestic general insurance.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.38 no.2
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• pp.95-107
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• 2022

Shipping companies earn profits through cargo transportation, and therefore, investment decisions to purchase ships are more important than anything else. Nevertheless, the cash flow discount method was mainly used in the economic analysis method, which assumes that all situations are static. This study shows that the real option model is useful in the economic analysis of ship investment. This economic analysis took into account the irreversibility of investment and uncertainty of benefits. In particular, this study used a binary option price determination model among real options. In addition, the simulation was conducted using actual investment data of A shipping company. As a result of the analysis, the investment value of used ships according to the net present value method was analyzed as negative (-), but the investment value in the real option model reflecting the flexibility of decision-making was evaluated as having positive (+) economic feasibility. It was analyzed that economic feasibility is affected by profit volatility and discount rate. Therefore, this study is expected to help shipping companies make more flexible decisions by using the real option model along with the existing net present value method when making ship investment decisions.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.27 no.1
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• pp.123-132
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• 2014

Inflation uncertainty is known to have deleterious effects on facilities investment by disturbing the corporate decision on the opportunity cost of investment. In this paper, we test the validity of this hypothesis in Korea by estimating the inflation uncertainty with both a time-varing parameter model with GARCH disturbances and the relative price volatility and then, estimate the facilities investment equation which includes those uncertainty indicators. The uncertainty indexes estimated by the above-mentioned methods continue to fluctuate even after the inflation rate has dropped dramatically reflecting the structural changes of Korea's economy since the financial crisis in 1997. As a result of estimation of the investment equation by both OLS and GMM, we find the inflation uncertainty has a negative effect on facilities investment with a statistical significance. Moreover, by means of Markov-switching regression model utilized to verify the non-linearity of this relationship, we draw a conclusion that this negative effect of inflation uncertainty heightens asymmetrically during the downturn periods of business cycle.

• The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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• v.13 no.12
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• pp.369-378
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• 2013

The Korean Won-Dollar exchange markets showed radical price movements in the late 1990s and 2008. Therefore it provides good sources for studying volatility phenomena. Using the GARCH option models, I analysed how the prices of foreign exchange options react volatilities in the foreign exchange spot prices. For this I compared the explanatory power of three option models(Black and Scholes, Duan, Heston and Nandi), using the Won-Dollar OTC option markets data from 2006 to 2013. I estimated the parameters using MLE and calculated the mean square pricing errors. According to the my empirical studies, the pricing errors of Duan, Black and Scholes models are 0.1%. And the pricing errors of the Heston and Nandi model is greatest among the three models. So I would like to recommend using Duan or Black and Scholes model for hedging the foreign exchange risks. Finally, the historical average of spot volatilities is about 14%, so trading the options around 5% may lead to serious losses to sellers.

• The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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• v.20 no.10
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• pp.702-714
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• 2020

Stock investment is a personal investment technique that has gathered tremendous interest since the reduction in interest rates and tax exemption. However, it is risky especially for those who do not have expert knowledge on stock volatility. Therefore, it is well understood that accurate stock trend prediction can greatly help stock investment, giving birth to a volume of research work in the field. In order to compare different research works and to optimize hyper-parameters for prediction models, it is required to have an evaluation standard that can accurately assess performances of prediction models. However, little research has been done in the area, and conventionally used methods have been employed repeatedly without being rigorously validated. For this reason, we first analyze performance evaluation of stock trend prediction with respect to performance metrics and data composition, and propose a fair evaluation method based on prediction disparity ratio.

• The Journal of Society for e-Business Studies
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• v.13 no.4
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• pp.49-69
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• 2008

Recently, ubiquitous computing technology becomes available to develop advanced electronic commerce：u-commerce. Hence, it is the very time to perform feasibility analysis in applying ubiquitous computing technology, especially estimating economical value of the on-going technology. Hence, the purpose of this paper is to propose a financial value estimating methodology in performing feasibility test on ubiquitous computing technology. To do so, Black and Scholes model is basically adopted. To show the feasibility if the idea proposed in this paper, actual case study through focused group interview with those who are actually performing on-going ubiquitous computing projects. As the result, we validated the possibility of applying Black-Sholes model to assessing feasibility analysis for ubiquitous technology development with the price of call option, volatility, and the comparison with other similar technologies.