• Journal of Internet Computing and Services
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• v.15 no.6
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• pp.15-26
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• 2014

This study focus on a economic value of the Big Data technologies by real options model using big data technology company's stock price to determine the price of the economic value of incremental assessed value. For estimating stochastic process of company's stock price by big data technology to extract the incremental shares, Generalized Moments Method (GMM) are used. Option value for Black-Scholes partial differential equation was derived, in which finite difference numerical methods to obtain the Big Data technology was introduced to estimate the economic value. As a result, a option value of big data technology investment is 38.5 billion under assumption which investment cost is 50 million won and time value is a about 1 million, respectively. Thus, introduction of big data technology to create a substantial effect on corporate profits, is valuable and there are an effects on the additional time value. Sensitivity analysis of lower underlying asset value appear decreased options value and the lower investment cost showed increased options value. A volatility are not sensitive on the option value due to the big data technological characteristics which are low stock volatility and introduction periods.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.38 no.4
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• pp.87-106
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• 2022

Uncertainties in the energy market are increasing due to technology developments (shale revolution), trade wars, COVID-19, and the Russia-Ukraine war. Especially, since 2020, the risk of international trade in the energy market has increased significantly due to changes in the supply chain of transportation and due to prolonged demand reduction because of COVID-19 and the Russian-Ukraine war. Considering these points, this study analyzed connectedness between energy price, tanker index, and uncertainty to understand the connectedness between international trade in the energy market. Main results are summarized as follows. First, as a result of analyzing stable period and unstable period of the energy price model using the MS-VAR model, it was confirmed that both the crude oil market model and the natural gas market model had a higher probability of maintaining stable period than unstable period, increasing volatility by specific events. Second, looking at the results of the analysis of the connectedness between stable period and unstable period of the energy market, it was confirmed that in the case of total connectedness, connectedness between variables was increased in the unstable period compared to the stable period. In the case of the energy market stable period, considering the degree of connectedness, it was confirmed that the effect of the tanker freight index, which represents the demand-side factor, was significant. Third, unstable period of the natural gas market model increases rapidly compared to the crude oil market model, indicating that the volatility spillover effect of the natural gas market is greater when uncertainties affecting energy prices increase compared to the crude oil market.

• International Journal of Highway Engineering
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• v.16 no.1
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• pp.75-89
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• 2014

PURPOSES : This study evaluates the economic value of national highway construction projects using Real Option Pricing Models. METHODS : We identified the option premium for uncertainties associated with flexibilities according to the future's change in national highway construction projects. In order to evaluate value of future's underlying asset, we calculated the volatility of the unit price per year for benefit estimation such as VOTS, VOCS, VICS, VOPCS and VONCS that the "Transportation Facility Investment Evaluation Guidelines" presented. RESULTS : We evaluated the option premium of underlying asset through a case study of the actual national highway construction projects using ROPM. And in order to predict the changes in the option value of the future's underlying asset, we evaluated the changes of option premium for future's uncertainties by the defer of the start of construction work, the contract of project scale, and the abandon of project during pre-land compensation stages that were occurred frequently in the highway construction projects. Finally we analyzed the sensitivity of the underlying asset using volatility, risk free rate and expiration date of option. CONCLUSIONS : We concluded that a highway construction project has economic value even though static NPV had a negative(-) value because of the sum of the existing static NPV and the option premium for the future's uncertainties associated with flexibilities.

• Journal of Korea Society of Industrial Information Systems
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• v.24 no.1
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• pp.23-30
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• 2019

As deep learning with the network-based algorithms evolve, artificial intelligence is rapidly growing around the world. Among them, finance is expected to be the field where artificial intelligence is most used, and many studies have been done recently. The existing financial strategy using deep-run is vulnerable to volatility because it focuses on stock price forecasts for a single stock. Therefore, this study proposes to construct ETF products constructed through portfolio methods by calculating the stocks constituting funds by using deep learning. We analyze the performance of the proposed model in the KOSPI 100 index. Experimental results showed that the proposed model showed improved results in terms of returns or volatility.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.8 no.3
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• pp.171-179
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• 2021

In the international markets, financial variables can be volatile and may affect each other, especially in the crisis times. COVID-19, which began in China in 2019 and spread to many countries of the world, created a crisis not only in the global health system but also in the international financial markets and economy. The purpose of this study is to analyze the contagious effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on the volatility of selected financial variables such as Bitcoin, gold, oil price, and exchange rates and the connections between the volatilities of these variables during the pandemic. For this aim, we use the ARMA-EGARCH model to measure the impact of volatility and shocks. In other words, it is aimed to measure whether the impact of the shock on the financial variables of the contagiousness of the epidemic is also transmitted to the markets. The data was collected from secondary and daily data from September 2th 2019 to December 20th, 2020. It can be said that the findings obtained have statistically significant effects on the conditional variability of the variables. Therefore, there are findings that the shocks in the market are contaminated with each other.

• Asia-Pacific Journal of Business
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• v.13 no.1
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• pp.247-262
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• 2022

Purpose - The purpose of this study is to examine the impact of the Pandamic Declaration on 'untact firms' listed in KOSPI and KOSDAQ market in order to verify Investor Mania Hypothesis. Design/methodology/approach - This study collected financial data for 44 untact firms in KOSPI and KOSDAQ market. Then, we employed ESM(Event Study Methodology), EGARCH model and DID(Difference-In-Difference) for analysis. Findings - First, in contrast with the benchmarking index, KOSPI 200 which shows a negative (-) abnormal return trend, the untact firms have positive abnormal return trend consistently. Second, after the Pandemic Declaration, the variability of abnormal return for the untact firms is found to be significantly positive. Third, we find that the cumulative abnormal return and volatility of the untact firms significantly increase after the Pandemic Declaration. Research implications or Originality - Based on the Investor Mania Hypothesis, we confirm that the market potential of untact firms after the Pandemic Declaration is observed when compared with the KOSPI 200.

• Korea Trade Review
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• v.47 no.5
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• pp.75-93
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• 2022

Purchasing Power Parity (hereafter, PPP) means the purchasing power of two currencies is the same when one is converted into the other one. According to previous studies on PPP, as the volatility of the real exchange rate is smaller, PPP may be more likely to hold. Since New Zealand adopted the inflation targeting policy in December 1989, many countries started to adopt it as their monetary policy frame. Previous studies on inflation targeting found that inflation targeting policy has positive effects on not only achieving price stability but also reducing the volatility of nominal/ real exchange rates. Therefore, in this study, I explored whether inflation targeting policy has positive effects on purchasing power parity subject to 19 OECD countries, applying an Exponential Smooth Transition Autoregressive (ESTAR) model during the sample periods, from 1974:Q1 to 2019:Q4. Based on the ESTAR estimate results, I found limited favorable evidence of PPP for only two countries- England and Switzerland- among 9 inflation targeters, compared to non-inflation targeters, and also I found that favorable evidence of PPP only for these two countries among 9 inflation targeters during post-inflation targeting, but not during pre-inflation targeting. These findings imply that the positive effects of inflation targeting on PPP may be questionable unlike Ding and Kim (2012) and Kim (2014)'s study.

• Korea Trade Review
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• v.47 no.2
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• pp.133-154
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• 2022

The Baltic Capesize Index (BCI), which is used as an indicator for marine transportation of steel raw materials, is one of the key economic indexes for managing the risk of loss due to rapid market fluctuations when steel companies establish business strategies and procuring plans for raw materials. Still, the conditions of supply and demand of steel raw materials has been extremely affected by volatility shocks from drastic events like the financial crisis such as the Lehman Brothers incident and changes in the external environment such as COVID-19. And, especially since the 2008 financial crisis, endeavors to predict the market conditions of the steel raw material is becoming more and more arduous for the deepening uncertainty and increased volatility of BCI, which has been used as a leading indicator of the real economy. This study investigates the correlation between the steel raw material market and the marine transportation market by estimating the spillover effect of information between markets. The vector error correction model (VECM) was used to analyze information transfer based on the correlation between the BCI and crude steel production, capesize fleet supply, raw material price, and cargo volume.

• Proceedings of the Safety Management and Science Conference
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• 2002.11a
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• pp.321-339
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• 2002

The result of variance decomposition through yield of Treasury of 30 year maturity of USA, S&P 500 index, stock price of KEPCO has 76.12% of impulse of KEPCO stock price at short-term horizon, but they have 51.40% at long-term horizon. After one year, they occupy 13.65%, and 33.25%. So their effects are increased. By the way, S&P 500 index and yield of Treasury of 30 year maturity of USA have relatively more effect for forecast of stock price oi KEPCO at short-term & long-term. The yield of Treasury of 30 year maturity of USA more than S&P 500 index have more effect for stock price of KEPCO. It is why. That foreign investors through fall of stock price of USA invest for emerging market is less than movement for emerging market of hedge funds through effect of fall of yield of Treasury of 30 year maturity of USA, according to relative effects for stock price of Korea companies. The result of variance decomposition through won/dollar foreign exchange rate, yield of corporate bond of 3 year maturity, Korea Stock Price index(KOSPI), stock price of KEPCO has 81.33% of impulse of KEPCO stock price at short-term horizon, but they have 41.73% at long-term horizon. After one year, they occupy 23.57% and 34.70%. So their effects are increased. By the way, KOSPI and won/dollar foreign exchange rate have relatively more effect for forecast of stock price of KEPCO at short-term & long-term. The won/dollar foreign exchange rate more than KOSPI have more effect for stock price of KEPCO. It is why. The recovery of economic condition through improvement of company revenue causes of rising of KOSPI. But, if persistence of low interest rate continues, fall of won/dollar foreign exchange rate will be more aggravated. And it will give positive effect for stock price of KEPCO. This gives more positive effect at two main reason. Firstly, through fall of won/dollar foreign exchange rate and rising of credit rating of Korea will be followed. Therefore, foreign investors will invest more funds to Korea. Secondly, inflow of foreign investment funds through profit of won/dollar foreign exchange rate and stock investment will be occurred. If appreciation of won against dollar is forecasted, foreign investors will buy won. Through this won, investors will do investment. Won/dollar foreign exchange rate is affected through external factors of yen/dollar foreign exchange rate, etc. Therefore, the exclusion of instable factors for foreign investors through rising of credit rating of Korea is necessary things.

• Journal of Convergence for Information Technology
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• v.11 no.9
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• pp.84-93
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• 2021

The purpose of this study is to analyze whether the spread of COVID-19 infectious diseases acts as a fear to investors and affects the direction and volatility of stock returns. The investor fear index was proposed using the domestic confirmed patient information of COVID-19, and the influence on stock prices was empirically analyzed. The direction and volatility models of stock prices used the Granger causality and GARCH models, respectively. The results of empirical analysis using the KOSPI index from February 20, 2020 to June 30, 2021 are as follows: First, the COVID-19 fear index showed causality to future stock prices. Second, the COVID-19 fear index has a negative effect on the volatility of KOSPI index returns. In future studies, it is necessary to document the cause by using individual business performance and stock price instead of the stock index.