• 전기학회논문지
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• 제63권11호
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• pp.1497-1502
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• 2014

Electric load forecasting is essential for stable electric power supply, efficient operation and management of power systems, and safe operation of power generation systems. The results are utilized in generator preventive maintenance planning and the systemization of power reserve management. Development and improvement of electric load forecasting model is necessary for power system maintenance and operation. This paper proposes daily maximum electric load forecasting methods for the next 4 weeks with a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model and an exponential smoothing model. According to the results of forecasting of daily maximum electric load forecasting for the next 4 weeks of March, April, November 2010~2012 using the constructed forecasting models, the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model showed an average error rate of 6,66%, 5.26%, 3.61% respectively and the exponential smoothing model showed an average error rate of 3.82%, 4.07%, 3.59% respectively.

• 국제학술발표논문집
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• The 3th International Conference on Construction Engineering and Project Management
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• pp.388-392
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• 2009

Operation of LNG (Liquefied Natural Gas) plants requires an effective maintenance strategy. To this end, the long-term and short-term trend of faults, such as mechanical and electrical troubles, should be identified so as to take proactive approach for ensuring the smooth and productive operation. However, it is not an easy task to predict the fault trend in LNG plants. Many variables and unexpected conditions make it quite difficult for the facility manager to be well prepared for future faulty conditions. This paper presents a model to predict the fault trend in a LNG plant. ARIMA (Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average) model is combined with Wavelet Transform to enhance the prediction capability of the proposed model. Test results show the potential of the proposed model for the preventive maintenance strategy.

• 한국철도학회논문집
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• 제14권3호
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• pp.216-221
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• 2011

수리 가능한 시스템의 신뢰성 분석에 중요한 문제 중의 하나는 유지보수 효과를 모델링하는 것이다. 현재까지 많은 연구들은 유지보수 후 시스템의 상태가 새것과 같이 된다는 완전유지보수 또는 유지보수 바로 직전의 상태로 된다는 최소유지보수 모형을 사용하였다. 그러나 국내운영기관에서 시행하는 유지보수 형태는 완전유지보수와 최소유지보수의 사이의 효과를 가지는 불완전유지보수 형태로 시행하는 경우가 많다. 본 연구에서는 이와 같이 불완전 유지보수가 수행되는 전동차의 장치들 중에서 승객용 도어시스템(PDS:passenger door system)의 고장데이터를 분석하고 유지보수 효과 수준을 적용하여 불완전유지보수 주기를 결정하는 문제를 다루었다.

• 품질경영학회지
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• 제29권2호
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• pp.46-53
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• 2001

In this paper, a preventive maintenance(PM) policy for a repairable system is considered. The failure rate model proposed by Park et at.(2000) is generalized by assuming that after each PM not only the PM slows down the degradation process of the system but also reduces down the system failure rate by a certain fixed amount. Long-run expected cost rate of the PM policy is derived and the properties of joint solution of the optimal PM period and optimal number of PM which minimizes the expected cost rate are obtained. Numerical examples for the case of a Weibull-type failure rate are given.

• 대한안전경영과학회지
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• 제7권2호
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• pp.1-12
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• 2005

TPM(Total Productive Management) that is enforcing introducing more than $80\%$ in domestic manufacturing industry is using total plant efficiency by the evaluation index, and as a result, can see a lot of examples that plant productivity is increased. This study's purpose centers total productive management activities that is management system for total plant efficiency's maximization, plant information system that total productive management activities factor that is enforcing in manufacturing industry can develop evaluation model that can evaluate qualitative activities by quantitative activities in process that maximize total plant efficiency wishes to do design.

• 한국신뢰성학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국신뢰성학회 2005년도 학술발표대회 논문집
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• pp.131-137
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• 2005

In this paper, we propose a Bayesian approach to determine the adaptive preventive maintenance(PM) policy for a general sequential imperfect PM model proposed by Lin, Zuo and Yam(2000) that PM not only reduces the effective age of the system but also changes the hazard rate function. Assuming that the failure times follow Weibull distribution, we adopt a Bayesian approach to update unknown parameters and determine the Bayesian optimal sequential PM policies. Finally, numerical examples of the optimal adaptive PM policy are presented for illustrative purposes.

• 한국정밀공학회지
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• 제27권5호
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• pp.36-47
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• 2010

The Korean Railroad Research Institute (KRRI) has developed the rubber tired AGT system (Model: K-AGT) between 1999 and 2005. The K-AGT is a light rail transit system does not require a driver and generally operates on an elevated railroad for transporting passengers. Accidents caused by driverless vehicles can severely affect social confidence, safety and economy therefore, it is very important to minimize the occurrences of such faults, and to accurately perform detailed maintenance tasks and thoroughly investigate the cause of any repeated failures. This research develops the web-based Preventive Maintenance (PM) system for the KAGT train system. The framework of the PM system is based on performing a reliability analysis and a failure mode effects analyses (FMEA) procedure on all the sub-systems in the K-AGT system. Out of the devices that have a low reliability, the high failure ranked devices are included high in the list for performing the overall maintenance plans. Through registration of historical failure data, the reliability indexes can be updated. Such a process is repeated continuously and can achieve very accurate predictions for device operational life times and failure rates. Therefore, this research describes the development of the overall PM system consists of a reliability analysis module, a failure mode effect analysis module, and maintenance request module.

• 대한안전경영과학회지
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• 제10권3호
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• pp.89-98
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• 2008

A preventive maintenance model, caller FNBM($\alpha$, $\delta$, $\gamma$)model, is proposed to decide an optimal repair number under achieved availability requirements(r) along with taking two types of failures (repairable or irrepairable) into account. In this model, the current system is replaced by a new one in case when it doesn't meet the achieved availability requirement, even though it is repairable failure; Otherwise it is replaced in time of the first irrepairable failure. Assumed that the j-th failure is repairable with probability ${\alpha}_j$ minimal repairs are allowed for repairable failure between replacements. Expected cost rate for preventive maintenance model is developed using NHPP(Non-Homogeneous Poisson Process) in order to determine the optimal number $n^*$, also numerical examples are shown in order to explain the proposed model. Since the proposed FNBM($\alpha$, $\delta$, $\gamma$)model includes Park FNBM model(1979) and Nakagawa FNBM(p)model(1983) this proposed model is thought to be better than previous model, especially for weapon system which requires availability as primary parameter.

• 해양환경안전학회지
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• 제27권1호
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• pp.53-59
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• 2021

해양 운송 산업은 특성상 항공 및 철도 등의 다른 운송 산업보다 비교적 늦게 신기술이 적용되는 산업이다. 현재 대부분의 선박은 기계장치 및 시스템에 문제가 발생하거나 운용 시간 기반으로 정비를 하는 사후 정비(Corrective Maintenance, CM)와 예방 정비(Preventive Maintenance, PM)에 속하는 시간 기반 정비(TBM, Time Based Maintenance)가 적용되고 있다. 그러나 높은 유지보수 비용이 요구되고, 육상의 즉각적인 지원이 어려우며, 선박이 멈추면 즉시 위험에 노출되는 해양 환경에서 운영되는 선박에서 과도한 단순 정비로 인한 인력과 비용 낭비, 예측되지 못한 고장 및 결함으로 유발되는 사고 등으로 인해 운용 효율화 측면에서 기존 정비법에 대한 한계점이 문제시 되고 있다. 예지 정비(Predictive Maintenance, PdM)는 진보된 기술로 기계의 상태 및 성능을 모니터링하여 고장시기를 예측하여 정비하는 방법으로 핵심 기계장치가 항상 최상의 작동 상태를 효율적으로 유지할 수 있도록 한다. 본 논문은 해양 환경에서 PdM의 적용성에 중점을 둔 해양 예지 정비(MPdM, Maritime Predictive Maintenance)에 대해 고안하였으며, 제시된 MPdM은 지리적 고립과 극한 해양 상황 등 해양 운송 산업의 특수한 환경을 고려하여 설계되었다. 본 논문은 선진 미래 해양 운송을 가능하게 하는 MPdM이라는 개념과 그 필요성을 제안한다.

• Industrial Engineering and Management Systems
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• 제8권4호
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• pp.221-227
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• 2009

There are customer services jointly provided by two facilities so that each customer will complete the course made up of both facilities' sub-services. The two facilities are assumed invested respectively by an infrastructure owner and one subordinate facility owner, whose partnership is built on their capital investments. This paper presents a mathematical model of Stackelberg competition between the two facility owners to derive their optimal Nash equilibrium. In this study, each facility owner's profit is consisted of fixed revenue fractions of sold services, operating costs (including depreciation cost) and maintenance costs of her facility. The maintenance costs of one facility are incurred both by failures and deterioration due to usage. Moreover, for both facilities, failures are rectified immediately by minimal repairs and preventive maintenance is carried out at a fixed time epoch. Additional assumptions are also employed to develop the model such as customer arrivals are manipulated to follow a Poisson process, and each facility's lifetime is independently Weibull-distributed. The Stackelberg game proceeds as follows. At the first stage of decision making process, the infrastructure owner (acting as a leader) decides the allocation of revenue shares based on her self-interest. After observing the allocation of revenue shares, the subordinate facility owner determines her own optimal price of services. This paper investigates actions and reactions of the two partners in the system. Then analytical conditions are proposed to achieve a unique optimal Nash equilibrium. Finally, some suggestions for further research are discussed.