• Title/Summary/Keyword: predictors

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The Development of Ensemble Statistical Prediction Model for Changma Precipitation (장마 강수를 위한 앙상블 통계 예측 모델 개발)

  • Kim, Jin-Yong;Seo, Kyong-Hwan
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.533-540
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    • 2014
  • Statistical forecast models for the prediction of the summertime Changma precipitation have been developed in this study. As effective predictors for the Changma precipitation, the springtime sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies over the North Atlantic (NA1), the North Pacific (NPC) and the tropical Pacific Ocean (CNINO) has been suggested in Lee and Seo (2013). To further improve the performance of the statistical prediction scheme, we select other potential predictors and construct 2 additional statistical models. The selected predictors are the Northern Indian Ocean (NIO) and the Bering Sea (BS) SST anomalies, and the spring Eurasian snow cover anomaly (EUSC). Then, using the total three statistical prediction models, a simple ensemble-mean prediction is performed. The resulting correlation skill score reaches as high as ~0.90 for the last 21 years, which is ~16% increase in the skill compared to the prediction model by Lee and Seo (2013). The EUSC and BS predictors are related to a strengthening of the Okhotsk high, leading to an enhancement of the Changma front. The NIO predictor induces the cyclonic anomalies to the southwest of the Korean peninsula and southeasterly flows toward the peninsula, giving rise to an increase in the Changma precipitation.

Predictors of Maternal Role Acquisition by Risk Status (임부의 위험상태에 따른 모성역할 획득의 예측인자들)

  • 이선아
    • Journal of Korean Academy of Nursing
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    • v.29 no.4
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    • pp.940-950
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    • 1999
  • One hundred two high-risk women(HRW) and 115 low-risk women(LRW) were studied at post-partal hospitalization and at 1, 4, and 8 months after giving birth to determine whether they would differ in the achievement of perceived maternal acquisition and whether predictors of maternal acquisition would differ for the two groups over time. The subjects were 102 HRW and 115 LRW, all in the above 27 weeks, admitted to two hospitals and to two clinic in the Kyoungnam area between July 1, 1998 and May 4, 1999. The data were analyzed by a SPSS program and the results are as follows ; 1) Predictors of Maternal role acquisition in the HRW were fetal attachment, maternal attachment, state anxiety, relationships of partner, social support in the early postpartum, maternal attachment, relationships of partner, depression, infant's health status in the postpartal 1 month, relationships of partner, self-esteem, educational degree in the postpartal 4 month, and maternal attachment, social supports in the postpartal 8 month. 2) Predictors of Maternal role acquisition in the LRW were fetal attachment, social supports, perceived experience about labor and delivery in the early postpartum, maternal attachment, sense of mastery in the postpartal 1 month, sense of mastery, experience with infants, relationships of partner in the postpartal 4 month and maternal attachment, experience with infants, social supports in the postpartal 8 month. 3) The hypothesis that HRW would score significantly lower on maternal competency than LRW was rejected. 4) The hypothesis that maternal acquisition would be significantly related to maternal attachment was accepted.

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A study on the Predictors of criteria on Clothing Selection (의복선택기준 예측변인 연구)

  • Shin, Jeong-Won;Park, Eun-Joo
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Costume
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    • v.13
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    • pp.123-134
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    • 1989
  • The purpose of this study was to identify the predictable variables of criteria on clothing selection. Relationships among criteria on clothing selection, psychological variable, lifestyle variable, and demographic variable were tested by Pearsons' correlation coefficients and One-way ANOVA. The predictors of criteria on clothing selection were identified by Regression. The consumers were classified into several benefit-segments by criteria on clothing selection, and then, the character of each segment were identified by Multiple Discriminant Analysis. Data was obtained from 593 women living in Pusan by self-administered questionnaires. The results of the study were as follows; 1. Relationship between criteria on clothing selection and relative variables. 1) The important variables to criteria on clothing selection were "down-to-earth-sophisticated", "traditional-morden", "conventional-different", "conscientious-expendient", need for exhibitionism, need for sex, fashion / appearance. 2) The important factor of clothing selection criteria was comfort and it has significant difference among ages. 3) The higher of social-economic status have the more appearance-oriented selection. 2. Predictors of criteria on clothing selection. There were several important predictors of criteria on clothing selection like lifestyle, need, and self-image. Especially, fashion / appearance in lifestyle variable was very important. 3. Segmentation by the criteria on clothing selection. There are four groups Classified by the criteria on clothing selection, that is practical-oriented group, appearance-oriented group, practical and appearance-oriented group, and indifference group. The significant discriminative variables were Fashion / appearance factor, need for exhibitionism, and need for sex. The result of this study can be used for a enterprise to analysis the consumer and to build the strategy of advertisement clothing.

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A Study of Predictors of Breastfeeding (모유수유실천 예측요인)

  • Lee Sun-Ok;Chung Eun-Soon;Ahn Suk-Hee;Moon Gil-Nam;Park Nam-Hee
    • Child Health Nursing Research
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    • v.9 no.4
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    • pp.368-375
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    • 2003
  • Purpose: The purpose of this study was to determine rate of breastfeeding practice at 3 months and to examine predictors for breastfeeding practice. Method: Study subjects were 114 mothers who gave birth at one hospital in Busan area. Data regarding breastfeeding practice and potentially related factors to breastfeeding were collected through a self-administered questionaire at 1 weeks and a telephone survey at 3 months. Logistic regression was used to identifiy significant the predictors on breastfeeding practice. Result: Rate of breastfeeding practice was 46.5% at three months of postpartum. The significant predictors for performing breastfeeding were lower the experience of breastfeeding trouble problem(OR=.88 compared with breastfeeding women, 95% CI; 78-.99), higher first breastfeeding satisfaction (OR=1.81 compared with non-breastfeeding women, 95% CI; 1.08-3.32), higher breastfeeding confidence(OR=1.84 compared with non-breastfeeding women, 95% CI; 1.08-3.32). Conclusion: The findings suggest the necessity of support program for mothers during the positive postpartum period to provide correct information about breastfeeding knowledge and attitude and to teach problem-solving skills for any breastfeeding problems for highere rate of breastfeeding practice

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Predictors of Condom Use Intentions according to Experience of Sexual Intercourse in Male College Students (남자대학생의 성 경험 유무에 따라 콘돔사용 의도에 영향을 미치는 예측요인)

  • Lee, Hae-Kyung
    • Women's Health Nursing
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    • v.16 no.2
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    • pp.194-203
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    • 2010
  • Purpose: To promote condom use for young men, there is necessary to meet their varying needs for condom. The purpose of this study was to examine what predicts condom use intention according to experience of sexual intercourse among Korean male college students. The conceptual framework for the study was the theory of planned behavior and the health belief model. Methods: A cross-sectional descriptive design was used with self-report questionnaires, which were completed by 399 subjects. Logistic regression analysis was done to examine predictors of condom use intentions according to experience of sexual intercourse. Results: The susceptibility to sexual transmitted diseases/ Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome (STDs/AIDS) and pregnancy and benefits from condom use were significant predictors of condom use intentions in the non-experienced group. The significant predictors of condom use intention for the experienced group were barriers to condom use and condom use self-efficacy. Conclusion: These findings suggest that sex education program should be developed to overcome barriers to condom use, enhance condom use self-efficacy, and maximize the benefits from condom use as well as increase the perceived susceptibility to STDs/AIDS and pregnancy. To enhance condom use self- efficacy, practicing and increasing ability in interactive negotiation to use condom should be included.

Exploration of the Predictors of Lecture Evaluation in College of Engineering using Decision Tree Analysis (의사결정나무분석에 의한 공과대학 강의평가 예측요인 탐색)

  • Lee, Jiyeon;Lee, Yeongju
    • Journal of Engineering Education Research
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    • v.21 no.4
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    • pp.46-52
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    • 2018
  • In general, lecture evaluation has been used in most universities as an important criterion to evaluate quality of education. This study is exploratory research on the predictors that determine lecture evaluation in college of engineering to give practical implications for improvement of engineering education. For the exploration of predictors of lecture evaluation, the data of lecture evaluation in A College of Engineering located in the metropolitan area was used, and Decision Tree Analysis was utilized as an analysis method. As a result, the characteristics of students turned out to be the most distinct predictor comparing with those of course and instructor at lecture evaluation in college of engineering. That is, as various elements other than teaching competency influence lecture evaluation in college of engineering, it is necessary to be more careful in evaluating quality of lecture or teaching competence. Thus, a follow-up study should be conducted to adjust the influence by the predictors that instructors can hardly control.

Predictors of Post Stroke Depression in Community-indwelling Older Adults (재가노인의 뇌졸중 후 우울 예측요인)

  • Oh, Eunmi
    • Journal of Korean Gerontological Nursing
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    • v.20 no.3
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    • pp.167-176
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    • 2018
  • Purpose: Post Stroke Depression (PSD) is one of the most common complications for stroke survivors and is associated with negative health outcomes such as disability, death. The purpose of this study was to investigate the prevalence and predictors of PSD among older Korean adults living in the community. Methods: Data collection was done using the 2014 Survey of Living Conditions and Welfare Needs of Korean Older Adults. Participants were 706 older adults who had a stroke. Logistic regression analysis was used to determine the predictors of PSD. Results: The prevalence of PSD which was assessed by the short form of the geriatric depression scale was 49.4%. In a logistic regression model, the predictors of PSD were self-rated health (OR=5.90, CI=3.70~9.40), economic state (OR=2.97, CI=2.07~4.24), independent activities of daily living (IADL) (OR=2.17, CI=1.30~3.63), Activities of Daily Living (ADL) (OR=2.02, CI=1.07~3.80), and education (OR=1.53, CI=1.05~2.24). Conclusion: PSD was common among older Korean adults living in the community. Poor self-rated health status, lower economic state, lower levels of Instrumental Activities of Daily Living (IADL) and ADL, lower levels of education should be considered when conducting activities related to prevention and management of PSD in older adults.

Correlated variable importance for random forests (랜덤포레스트를 위한 상관예측변수 중요도)

  • Shin, Seung Beom;Cho, Hyung Jun
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.34 no.2
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    • pp.177-190
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    • 2021
  • Random forests is a popular method that improves the instability and accuracy of decision trees by ensembles. In contrast to increasing the accuracy, the ease of interpretation is sacrificed; hence, to compensate for this, variable importance is provided. The variable importance indicates which variable plays a role more importantly in constructing the random forests. However, when a predictor is correlated with other predictors, the variable importance of the existing importance algorithm may be distorted. The downward bias of correlated predictors may reduce the importance of truly important predictors. We propose a new algorithm remedying the downward bias of correlated predictors. The performance of the proposed algorithm is demonstrated by the simulated data and illustrated by the real data.

Analyzing effect and importance of input predictors for urban streamflow prediction based on a Bayesian tree-based model

  • Nguyen, Duc Hai;Bae, Deg-Hyo
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2022.05a
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    • pp.134-134
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    • 2022
  • Streamflow forecasting plays a crucial role in water resource control, especially in highly urbanized areas that are very vulnerable to flooding during heavy rainfall event. In addition to providing the accurate prediction, the evaluation of effects and importance of the input predictors can contribute to water manager. Recently, machine learning techniques have applied their advantages for modeling complex and nonlinear hydrological processes. However, the techniques have not considered properly the importance and uncertainty of the predictor variables. To address these concerns, we applied the GA-BART, that integrates a genetic algorithm (GA) with the Bayesian additive regression tree (BART) model for hourly streamflow forecasting and analyzing input predictors. The Jungrang urban basin was selected as a case study and a database was established based on 39 heavy rainfall events during 2003 and 2020 from the rain gauges and monitoring stations. For the goal of this study, we used a combination of inputs that included the areal rainfall of the subbasins at current time step and previous time steps and water level and streamflow of the stations at time step for multistep-ahead streamflow predictions. An analysis of multiple datasets including different input predictors was performed to define the optimal set for streamflow forecasting. In addition, the GA-BART model could reasonably determine the relative importance of the input variables. The assessment might help water resource managers improve the accuracy of forecasts and early flood warnings in the basin.

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Review on Predictors of Weight Loss in Moderate to Severe Obesity Treatment (중고도 비만 치료에 있어서 체중감량에 영향을 주는 인자들에 대한 고찰)

  • Sohyun Park;Min-jeong Park;Eunjoo Kim;Young-Woo Lim
    • Journal of Korean Medicine for Obesity Research
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    • v.23 no.2
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    • pp.98-111
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    • 2023
  • Objectives: The purpose of this study was to review predictive factors associated with weight loss in moderate to severe obesity treatment. The direction of the treatment for moderate to severe obesity will be suggested in consideration of various factors. Methods: Authors searched the articles published from 2018 to 2023 in three international databases (PubMed, Embase and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials) and two domestic databases (Research Information Sharing Service, Korean studies Information Service System). Studies including treatment with moderate to severe obese patients were selected. Results: A total of 43 studies were included. The main factors of weight loss were unchangeable predictors such as low initial degree of obesity, younger age, non-diabetes and high resting energy expenditure with changeable predictors such as increase in protein, physical activity, self-efficacy, initial weight loss and attendance of the treatment. Conclusions: Our review results suggest that based on the characteristics of moderate to severe obese patients, predictors of weight loss can be used to determine treatment and prognosis in various aspects.