• Title/Summary/Keyword: predictive tool

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Clinical Investigation of Isolated Chest Injury (흉부 단독손상 환자의 임상적 고찰)

  • Lee, Keung Moo;Kim, Dong Soo;Lee, Suk Woo;Kim, Hoon
    • Journal of Trauma and Injury
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    • v.19 no.1
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    • pp.35-40
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    • 2006
  • Purpose: Injuries are the third leading cause of death in Korea. Isolated chest injury is not uncommon and shows high mortality and morbidity. Several scoring systems are used for triage and stratification for trauma patients, but no standard system is accepted. We aimed to analyze the accuracy of identification of isolated chest injury by using several scoring systems. Methods: We reviewed a total of 75 patients admitted with isolated chest injury between January 2005 and October 2005. Medical records were reviewed by using the Injury Severity Score (ISS), the Revised Trauma Score (RTS), and the Trauma and Injury Severity Score (TRISS). The scoring systems were compared by using statistics methods. Results: The overall predictive accuracy of the TRISS was 12.5%, 12.0% greater than those of the RTS and the ISS. By using the area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve, the TRISS showed an excellent discriminative power (AUROC 0.931) compared to the ISS (AUROC 0.926) and the RTS (AUROC 0.872). Conclusion: Compared with the RTS and the ISS, the TRISS is an easily applied tool with excellent prognostic abilities for isolated chest trauma patients. However, the TRISS, the ISS, and the RTS showed high specificity and low sensitivity, so another scoring system is required for triage and stratification of isolated chest injury patients.

A Review of the Different Models for Predicting Blast Overpressures Caused by Vapor Cloud Explosions (증기운 폭발에 의해 발생된 폭풍 과압 예측 모델 검토)

  • Park Dal Jae;Lee Young Soon;Lim Young Hoon
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Gas
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    • v.4 no.4 s.12
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    • pp.50-57
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    • 2000
  • Past accidents have shown that vapor cloud explosions are the predominant cause of the largest losses in the chemical and petrochemical industries due to the generation of significant overpressures. Prediction of such overpressure is of great concern and a knowledge of the likely overpressure is needed for the design of equipment, safety cases and emergency planning. For these reasons, risk assessment for vapor cloud explosion is crucial and this assessment can be carried out using the different models including TNT-Equivalency, TNO Hemispherical, TNO Multi-Energy and CFD models. Accordingly, in this paper, the published VCE prediction models are reviewed to provide a critical comparison of the different models used for the quantification of explosion hazards, in terms of the fundamental assumptions employed, and their predictive accuracy

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Bayesian Survival Analysis of High-Dimensional Microarray Data for Mantle Cell Lymphoma Patients

  • Moslemi, Azam;Mahjub, Hossein;Saidijam, Massoud;Poorolajal, Jalal;Soltanian, Ali Reza
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.17 no.1
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    • pp.95-100
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    • 2016
  • Background: Survival time of lymphoma patients can be estimated with the help of microarray technology. In this study, with the use of iterative Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) method, survival time of Mantle Cell Lymphoma patients (MCL) was estimated and in reference to the findings, patients were divided into two high-risk and low-risk groups. Materials and Methods: In this study, gene expression data of MCL patients were used in order to select a subset of genes for survival analysis with microarray data, using the iterative BMA method. To evaluate the performance of the method, patients were divided into high-risk and low-risk based on their scores. Performance prediction was investigated using the log-rank test. The bioconductor package "iterativeBMAsurv" was applied with R statistical software for classification and survival analysis. Results: In this study, 25 genes associated with survival for MCL patients were identified across 132 selected models. The maximum likelihood estimate coefficients of the selected genes and the posterior probabilities of the selected models were obtained from training data. Using this method, patients could be separated into high-risk and low-risk groups with high significance (p<0.001). Conclusions: The iterative BMA algorithm has high precision and ability for survival analysis. This method is capable of identifying a few predictive variables associated with survival, among many variables in a set of microarray data. Therefore, it can be used as a low-cost diagnostic tool in clinical research.

Impact of Prognostic Factors on Survival Rates in Patients with Ovarian Carcinoma

  • Arikan, Sevim Kalsen;Kasap, Burcu;Yetimalar, Hakan;Yildiz, Askin;Sakarya, Derya Kilic;Tatar, Sumeyra
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.15 no.15
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    • pp.6087-6094
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    • 2014
  • Purpose: The aim of the present study was to invesitigate the impact of significant clinico-pathological prognostic factors on survival rates and to identify factors predictive of poor outcome in patients with ovarian carcinoma. Materials and Methods: A retrospective chart review of 74 women with pathologically proven ovarian carcinoma who were treated between January 2006 and April 2011 was performed. Patients were investigated with respect to survival to find the possible effects of age, gravida, parity, menstruel condition, pre-operative Ca-125, treatment period, cytologic washings, presence of ascites, tumor histology, stage and grade, maximal tumor diameter, adjuvan chemotherapy and cytoreductive success. Also 55 ovarian carcinoma patients were investigated with respect to prognostic factors for early 2-year survival. Results: The two-year survival rate was 69% and the 5-year survival rate was 25.5% for the whole study population. Significant factors for 2-year survival were preoperative CA-125 level, malignant cytology and FIGO clinical stage. Significant factors for 5-year survival were age, preoperative CA-125 level, residual tumor, lymph node metastases, histologic type of tumor, malignant cytology and FIGO clinical stage. Logistic regression revealed that independent prognostic factors of 5-year survival were patient age, lymph node metastasis and malignant cytology. Conclusions: We consider quality registries with prospectively collected data to be one important tool in monitoring treatment effects in population-based cancer research.

Diagnostic Value of Protein Ki67 (MIB-1) in Atypical Pap Smears of Postmenopausal Women

  • Fakhrjou, Ashraf;Dastranj-Tabrizi, Ali;Ghojazadeh, Morteza;Ghorashi, Sona;Velayati, Atefeh;Piri, Reza;Vahedi, Amir;Sayyah-Melli, Manizhe;Smaeili, Heydar-Ali;Bonakdari, Amir;Halimi, Monireh;Naghavi-Behzad, Mohammad
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.14 no.8
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    • pp.4815-4818
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    • 2013
  • Background: Atrophic epithelium of cervix sampled from postmenopausal women may mimic high-grade cervical intraepithelial neoplasia in Papanicolaou-stained (Pap) smears. Ki-67 (MIB-1) protein presents on proliferating cells, and percentage of cells with positive nuclei provides a reliable tool for rapid evaluation of the growth fraction. The aim of this study was to determine the diagnostic value of protein Ki67 staining in atypical pap smears of postmenopausal women. Methods: In a case-control setting, pap smears of 75 women with an atypical pap smear (case group) and 75 with normal pap smears (controls) were obtained before and after estrogen treatment. Afterward, samples were exposed to the monoclonal antibody Ki-67 (MIB-1) and the immunohistochemically demonstrated Ki-67+ cells were compared. Results: Mean ages of cases and controls were $60.4{\pm}4.5$ and $59.9{\pm}4.3$ years respectively (P=0.50). There was one (2.7%) positive Ki-67 specimen in the case group, without any positive Ki-67 specimen in the control group (P=0.50). Conclusions: Measurement of proliferative activity index in Pap smears restrained with MIB1 is a simple, reliable, and cost-effective method for excluding negatives. This would imply that it might allow a substantial reduction of diagnostic estrogen courses and subsequent Pap smears in postmenopausal women with atypical findings.

Factors Predicting Fecal Occult Blood Testing among Residents of Bushehr, Iran, Based on the Health Belief Model

  • Dashdebi, Kamel Ghobadi;Noroozi, Azita;Tahmasebi, Rahim
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.17 no.sup3
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    • pp.17-22
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    • 2016
  • Colorectal cancer is a major cause of mortality worldwide. Fecal occult blood testing has proven a very effective screening tool for early detection and mortality reduction. The aim of this study was to determine predictors factors related to fecal occult blood testing using the Health Belief Model method among residents of Bushehr, Iran. A cross sectional study was performed on a sample of 600 men and women more than 50 years of age. The sample was selected by a convenience method from patients referred to public and private laboratories throughout the city. Each subject filled out a questionnaire which was designed and developed based on Health Belief Model constructs. Statistical analysis was conducted using ANOVA, T-test, chi-square test, and logistic regression. Fecal occult blood tests were performed on 179 (29.8%) out of 600 subjects, of which 95 patients (58.1%) did a periodic examination test and 84 patients (46.9%) had a doctor's advice for testing. According to the logistic regression model, the perceived barriers (P=0.0, Exp(B)= 0.3), perceived benefits (P<0.01, Exp(B)= 1.9) and self-efficacy (P<0.01, Exp(B)= 1.6) were predictive factors related to occult blood testing among subjects. The results showed that reducing people's perception of barriers to testing, increasing perceived benefits of screening, and reinforcing self efficacy can have major effect in increasing the rate of fecal occult blood screening for colorectal cancer prevention.

Prediction of Gas Phase Sorption Isotherms on The Basis of QSAR Method (QSAR 방법을 이용한 가스 상태의 등온흡착선 예측)

  • Kim, Jong O
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.11 no.3
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    • pp.11-18
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    • 1991
  • Volatile organic compounds(VOC) present in or generated by many sources, can be toxic, mutagenic or even carcinogenic, so that control of such emissions is significant. The 6 chlorinated organic chemicals as VOC were examined in this study. Prediction of the behavior of VOC on activated carbon beds is an important part of control system design. The objective of this study was to predict gas phase sorption isotherms from physical properties and liquid phase isotherms obtained with the same adsorbent and adsorbate. One of the techniques that was investigated was quantitative structure-activity relationships(QSAR) for the predicition procedures. It was possible to estimate sorption isotherms in the gas phase($a_g$) using either connectivity index, $^2{\chi}$, and the Henry's law coefficient ($H_a$) or the solubility and the equilibrium concentration in the gas phase. As a result of study, the predictive equation based on Freundlich model for $a_g$ was ${\log}\;a_g=0.238\;^2{\chi}+0.573\;{\log}\;H_a+4.330(r^2=0.94)$. Finally, this would provide a potentially useful tool to describe and predict sorption capacity without time-consuming tests.

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Role of CD10 Immunohistochemical Expression in Predicting Aggressive Behavior of Phylloides Tumors

  • Tariq, Muhammad Usman;Haroon, Saroona;Kayani, Naila
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.16 no.8
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    • pp.3147-3152
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    • 2015
  • Background: Phylloides tumors are rare breast neoplasms with a variable clinical course depending on the tumor category. Along with histologic features, the role of immunohistochemical staining has been studied in predicting their behavior. Objectives: Our aim was to evaluate the role of CD 10 immunohistochemical staining in predicting survival, recurrence and metastasis in phylloides tumor. We also evaluated correlations of other clinicopathological features with overall and disease-free survival. Materials and Methods: CD10 expression was studied in 82 phylloides tumors divided into recurrent/metastatic and non-recurrent/non-metastatic cohorts. The Chi-square test was applied to determine the significance of differences in CD10 expression between outcome cohorts. Uni and multivariate survival analyses were also performed using log-rank test and Cox regression hazard models. Results: All 3 metastatic cases, 5 out of 6 (83.3%) recurrent cases and 37out of 73 (50.7%) non-recurrent and non-metastatic cases expressed significant (2+ or 3+) staining for CD10. This expression significantly varied between outcome cohorts (p<0.03). Tumor category and histological features including mitotic count and necrosis correlated significantly with recurrence and metastasis. A significant decrease in overall and disease free survival was seen with CD10 positivity, malignant category, increased mitoses and necrosis. Neither CD10 expression nor any other clinicopathologic feature proved to be an independent prognostic indicator in multivariate analysis. Conclusions: CD10 immunohistochemical staining can be used as a predictive tool for phylloides tumor but this expression should be interpreted in conjunction with tumor category.

Evaluation of the Validity of a Simple Screening Test Developed for Identifying Korean Elderly at Risk of Undernutrition (우리 나라 노인의 영양부족위험 진단을 위해 개발된 간이조사표의 타당성 평가)

  • 이정원;김경은;김기남;현태선;현화진;박영숙
    • Journal of Nutrition and Health
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    • v.33 no.8
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    • pp.864-872
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    • 2000
  • This study intended to evaluate the validity of the simple nutrition screening test that had been developed with the elderly living in Cheongju as a subject. Nutrition screening score(NSS) and reference standards for nutritional and health status(nutrient intakes, mean adequacy ratio, perceive health, and serum albumin, hematocrit, and hemoglobin) were estimated by using the date obtained in 1996 from the 174 elderly living in Taejon, Statistical analysis showed significant correlations between mean adequacy ratio(MAR) and NSS(r=0.341) and also between NSS and biological indices such as albumin and hematocrit, Around 65-75% of the elderly with perceive health and low level of serum albumin, hemoglobin and hematocrit had NSS$\leq$ll. Sensitivity, specificity, and positive predictive values(PPV) were calculated from the crosstabulation of the three categories of NSS(high, moderate, and low nutritional risk) and low categories MAR(< 0.75, undernutrition;$\geq$0.75, normal) to validate the cut-off point for high or low nutritional risk by NSS. It was suggested that point l1 was appropriate as a criterion to determine high risk of undernutrition, but point 16 was better than 17 as criterion to determine low nutritional risk in the Taejon elderly. When point ll was used as a criterion of high nutritional risk, sensitivity, specificity, and PPV are 59.5, 60.5 and 82.1 respectively. When point 16 was used as a criterion of low nutritional risk, sensitivity, specificity, and PPV are 25.6, 95.4, and 64.7%, respectively. In conclusion, nutrition screening test that had been developed can be a simple, easy, and proper instrument to classify the high risk group of undernutrition. A further validation study seems to be required among other groups of individuals for the screening test to the finalized as a more valid instrument identifying Korean elderly at nutrition and health risk(Korean J Nutrition 33(8) : 864-872, 2000)

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Effect of Energy Loss by a Vertical Slotted Wall (직립 슬릿벽에 의한 에너지 손실효과)

  • Cho, Il-Hyoung
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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    • v.27 no.5
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    • pp.295-303
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    • 2015
  • The eigenfunction expansion method is appled for the wave scattering by a vertical slotted, where both the inertial and quadratic drag terms are involved. Quadratic drag term representing the energy loss is linearized by the application of socalled equivalent linearization. The drag coefficient, which was empirically determined by Yoon et al.(2006) and Huang(2007) is used. Analytical results are verified by comparison to the experimental results conducted by Kwon et al.(2014) and Zhu and Chwang(2001). Using the developed design tool, the effect of energy loss by a vertical slotted wall is estimated with various design parameters, such as porosity, submergence depth, shape of slits and wave characteristics. It is found that the maximum value of energy loss across the slotted wall is generated at porosity value less than P = 0.1. The present solutions can provide a good predictive tools to estimate the wave absorbing efficiency by a slotted-wall breakwater.