• Title/Summary/Keyword: predictive method

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유통업체의 부실예측모형 개선에 관한 연구 (Performance Evaluation and Forecasting Model for Retail Institutions)

  • 김정욱
    • 유통과학연구
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    • 제12권11호
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    • pp.77-83
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    • 2014
  • Purpose - The National Agricultural Cooperative Federation of Korea and National Fisheries Cooperative Federation of Korea have prosecuted both financial and retail businesses. As cooperatives are public institutions and receive government support, their sound management is required by the Financial Supervisory Service in Korea. This is mainly managed by CAEL, which is changed by CAMEL. However, NFFC's business section, managing the finance and retail businesses, is unified and evaluated; the CAEL model has an insufficient classification to evaluate the retail industry. First, there is discrimination power as regards CAEL. Although the retail business sector union can receive a higher rating on a CAEL model, defaults have often been reported. Therefore, a default prediction model is needed to support a CAEL model. As we have the default prediction model using a subdivision of indexes and statistical methods, it can be useful to have a prevention function through the estimation of the retail sector's default probability. Second, separating the difference between the finance and retail business sectors is necessary. Their businesses have different characteristics. Based on various management indexes that have been systematically managed by the National Fisheries Cooperative Federation of Korea, our model predicts retail default, and is better than the CAEL model in its failure prediction because it has various discriminative financial ratios reflecting the retail industry situation. Research design, data, and methodology - The model to predict retail default was presented using logistic analysis. To develop the predictive model, we use the retail financial statements of the NFCF. We consider 93 unions each year from 2006 to 2012 to select confident management indexes. We also adapted the statistical power analysis that is a t-test, logit analysis, AR (accuracy ratio), and AUROC (Area Under Receiver Operating Characteristic) analysis. Finally, through the multivariate logistic model, we show that it is excellent in its discrimination power and higher in its hit ratio for default prediction. We also evaluate its usefulness. Results - The statistical power analysis using the AR (AUROC) method on the short term model shows that the logistic model has excellent discrimination power, with 84.6%. Further, it is higher in its hit ratio for failure (prediction) of total model, at 94%, indicating that it is temporally stable and useful for evaluating the management status of retail institutions. Conclusions - This model is useful for evaluating the management status of retail union institutions. First, subdividing CAEL evaluation is required. The existing CAEL evaluation is underdeveloped, and discrimination power falls. Second, efforts to develop a varied and rational management index are continuously required. An index reflecting retail industry characteristics needs to be developed. However, extending this study will need the following. First, it will require a complementary default model reflecting size differences. Second, in the case of small and medium retail, it will need non-financial information. Therefore, it will be a hybrid default model reflecting financial and non-financial information.

소뇌-교각종양 수술시 수술 중 전기생리학적 신경감시에 따른 수술 후 기능적 결과 (Intraoperative Neurophysiologic Monitoring and Functional Outcome in Cerebellopontine Angle Tumor Surgery)

  • 이상구;박관;박익성;서대원;엄동옥;남도현;이정일;김종수;홍승철;신형진;어환;김종현
    • Journal of Korean Neurosurgical Society
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    • 제29권6호
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    • pp.778-785
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    • 2000
  • Objectives : Intraoperative neurophysiologic monitoring(INM) is a well known useful method to reduce intraoperative neurological complications during neurosurgical procedures. Furthermore, INM is required in most cerebellopontine angle(CPA) surgery because cranial nerves or brain stem injuries can result in serious complications. Object of this study is to the correlation between the changes of intraoperative monitoring modalities during cerebellopontine angle tumor surgery and post-operative functional outcomes in auditory and facial functions. Material and Methods : Fifty-seven patients who underwent intraoperative neurophysiologic monitoring during CPA tumor surgery were retrospectively reviewed. Their lesions were as follows ; vestibular schwannomas in 42, other cranial nerve schwannomas in seven, meningiomas in five and cysts in three cases. Pre- and postoperative audiologic examinations and facial nerve function tests were performed in all patients. Intraoperative neurophysiologic monitoring modalities includes brainstem auditory evoked potentials(BAEP) and facial electromyographies(EMG). We compared the events of INM during CPA tumor surgeries with the outcomes of auditory and facial nerve functions. Results : The subjects who had abnormal changes during CPA tumor surgery were twenty cases with BAEP changes and facial EMG changes in twenty one cases. The changes of intraoperative neurophysiologic monitoring did not always result in poor functional outcomes. However, most predictable intraoperative monitoring changes were wave III-V complex losses in BAEP and continuous neurotonic activities in facial EMG. Conclusion : These results indicate that intraoperative neurophysiologic monitoring in CPA tumor surgery usually provide predictive value for postoperative functional outcomes.

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Development and Validation of a Predictive Model for Listeria monocytogenes Scott A as a Function of Temperature, pH, and Commercial Mixture of Potassium Lactate and Sodium Diacetate

  • Abou-Zeid, Khaled A.;Oscar, Thomas P.;Schwarz, Jurgen G.;Hashem, Fawzy M.;Whiting, Richard C.;Yoon, Kisun
    • Journal of Microbiology and Biotechnology
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    • 제19권7호
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    • pp.718-726
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    • 2009
  • The objective of this study was to develop and validate secondary models that can predict growth parameters of L. monocytogenes Scott A as a function of concentrations (0-3%) of a commercial potassium lactate (PL) and sodium diacetate (SDA) mixture, pH (5.5-7.0), and temperature (4-37DC). A total of 120 growth curves were fitted to the Baranyi primary model that directly estimates lag time (LT) and specific growth rate (SGR). The effects of the variables on L. monocytogenes Scott A growth kinetics were modeled by response surface analysis using quadratic and cubic polynomial models of the natural logarithm transformation of both LT and SGR. Model performance was evaluated with dependent data and independent data using the prediction bias ($B_f$) and accuracy factors ($A_f$) as well as the acceptable prediction zone method [percentage of relative errors (%RE)]. Comparison of predicted versus observed values of SGR indicated that the cubic model fits better than the quadratic model, particularly at 4 and $10^{\circ}C$. The $B_f$and $A_f$for independent SGR were 1.00 and 1.08 for the cubic model and 1.08 and 1.16 for the quadratic model, respectively. For cubic and quadratic models, the %REs for the independent SGR data were 92.6 and 85.7, respectively. Both quadratic and cubic polynomial models for SGR and LT provided acceptable predictions of L. monocytogenes Scott A growth in the matrix of conditions described in the present study. Model performance can be more accurately evaluated with $B_f$and $A_f$and % RE together.

치매 노인의 배회행동에 관한 문헌 조사 (Review on Wandering Behavior in Persons with Dementia)

  • 홍손귀령
    • Perspectives in Nursing Science
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    • 제3권1호
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    • pp.35-45
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    • 2006
  • In Korea, about 8.3% over aged 65 are suffering from Alzheimer's disease or other type of dementia. Among dementia-related behaviors, wandering is the one of strongest factors on burden and stress of caregivers. On Lee and Kwon's report with community living persons with dementia, upto 85% of caregivers reported wandering as a problem. Wandering is a frequently encountered problem in communities and long-term care facilities, but it is among least understood dementia. related behavior. Despite the prevalence of wandering, its significant adverse outcomes, and the increase in persons with dementia in Korea, no systematic research has been conducted in Korea. The purpose of this study is to review on literature related to wandering behavior among persons with dementia. The specific topics related to wandering are included: definition, the prevalence of dementia and wandering behavior, the influencing factor on wandering, outcomes of wandering behavior, and the measurement method. Wandering is defined as "aimless walking" and "Meandering, aimless or repetitive locomotion that exposes one to harm and is incongruent with boundaries, limits, or obstacles". Wandering is viewed as a problematic behavior, however, it has to be understood as need-driven compromised behavior. For example, wandering may be an expression of searching for familiar person and/or place. Recently, in Korea, there is an effort for establishing the therapeutic environment for elders who are wanderers in long-term-care facilities. Cognitive impairment of persons with dementia is found to be a consistent factor on wandering behavior through many national and international studies. The adverse outcomes of wandering are serious problem in persons with dementia as well as their caregivers. The adverse outcomes include falls, fractures, getting lost, use of restraints, or even death. In fact, wandering is one of the major reasons for a patient to be institutionalized. For measurement of wandering behavior, two methods are broadly used: observation using stop watch, and survey form. A revised instrument of the Korean version of Algase wandering scale (K_RAWS) is established the psychometric properties (Son, Song, & Lim, 2006) demonstrating valid and reliable instrument in measuring wandering behavior among persons with dementia who are residing in communities. K_RAWS has a 39 items with six subscales including persistent walking, repetitive walking, spatial disorientation, eloping behavior, negative outcome, and mealtime impulsivity. In conclusion, studies including the prevalence of wandering behavior and predictive factors on wandering should be conducted to understand wandering clearly before developing any types of intervention.

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앙상블 머신러닝 기법과 블록체인 정보를 활용한 이더리움 엉클 블록 예측 분석 (Predictive Analysis of Ethereum Uncle Block using Ensemble Machine Learning Technique and Blockchain Information)

  • 김한민
    • 디지털융복합연구
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    • 제18권11호
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    • pp.129-136
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    • 2020
  • 블록체인의 장점들은 다양한 분야에서 블록체인의 필요성을 제시한다. 하지만 블록체인에는 몇 가지 단점들이 존재한다. 그 중 엉클블록 문제는 블록체인의 가치와 활용을 크게 저해할 수 있는 문제 중 하나다. 엉클블록 문제로 인해 블록체인의 가치가 저하 될 수 있음에도 불구하고 이전의 연구들은 엉클블록에 대한 연구에 크게 주목하지 않았다. 따라서 본 연구의 목적은 블록체인의 엉클 블록 문제를 예측하고 대비할 수 있도록 엉클블록의 발생을 예측 하고자 한다. 본 연구는 엉클 블록 발생의 정확한 예측을 위해서 새로운 변수와 앙상블 분석 기법 도입의 타당성을 검증한다. 연구 방법으로 엉클블록 문제가 실제로 발생하는 이더리움의 엉클블록을 대상으로 보팅, 배깅, 스태킹 앙상블 분석 기법을 활용하였다. 분석 데이터로는 이더리움과 비트코인 블록체인 정보를 활용하였다. 연구 결과, 이더리움 블록체인 정보만을 활용하여 보팅, 스태킹 앙상블 기법을 적용할 경우 가장 높은 예측 결과가 나타난다는 사실을 발견하였다. 본 연구의 결과는 엉클블록의 발생을 보다 정확하게 예측하여 블록체인의 엉클블록 문제에 대비할 수 있도록 기여한다.

A 5-year retrospective clinical study of the Dentium implants

  • Lee, Jeong-Yol;Park, Hyo-Jin;Kim, Jong-Eun;Choi, Yong-Geun;Kim, Young-Soo;Huh, Jung-Bo;Shin, Sang-Wan
    • The Journal of Advanced Prosthodontics
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    • 제3권4호
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    • pp.229-235
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    • 2011
  • PURPOSE. The aim of this retrospective study was to evaluate cumulative survival rate (CSR) of Implantium implants followed for 5 years and association between risk factors and the CSR. MATERIALS AND METHODS. A total of two hundred forty-nine Implantium Implants System (Dentium, Seoul, Korea) placed in ninety-five patients from 2004 to 2009 were investigated with several identified risk factors (sex, systemic disease, smoking, alchohol, reason of tooth loss, length, arch (maxilla or mandible), replace tooth type (incisor, canine, premolar or molar) Kennedy classification, prosthodontic type, prosthodontic design, opposite dentition, abutment type, occlusal material, occlusal unit, splint to tooth, cantilever, other surgery). Clinical examination (mobility, percussion, screw loosening, discomfort, etc.) and radiographic examination data were collected from patient records including all problems during follow-up period according to protocols described earlier. Life table analysis was undertaken to examine the CSR. Cox regression method was conducted to assess the association between potential risk factors and overall CSR. RESULTS. Five of 249 implants were failed. Four of these were lost before loading. The 5-year implant cumulative survival rate was 97.37%. Cox regression analysis demonstrated a significant predictive association between overall CSR and systemic disease, smoking, reason of tooth loss, arch, Kennedy classification and prosthodontic design (P<.05). The screw related complication was rare. Two abutment screw fractures were found. Another complications of prosthetic components were porcelain fracture, resin facing fracture and denture fracture (n=19). CONCLUSION. The 5-year CSR of Implantium implants was 97.37 %. Implant survival may be dependent upon systemic disease, smoking reason of tooth loss, arch, Kennedy classification and prosthodontic design (P<.05). The presence of systemic diseases and combination of other surgical procedures may be associated with increased implant failure.

퍼지관계와 유전자 알고리즘에 기반한 진화론적 최적 퍼지다항식 뉴럴네트워크: 해석과 설계 (Evolutionally optimized Fuzzy Polynomial Neural Networks Based on Fuzzy Relation and Genetic Algorithms: Analysis and Design)

  • 박병준;이동윤;오성권
    • 한국지능시스템학회논문지
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    • 제15권2호
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    • pp.236-244
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    • 2005
  • 본 연구에서는 퍼지관계 및 진화론적 최적 다층 퍼셉트론에 기초한 퍼지다항식 뉴럴네트워크(FPNN)의 새로운 구조를 소개하고, 포괄적인 설계방법론을 토의하며, 그리고 일련의 수치적인 실험이 수행된다. 진화론적 최적 FPNN(EFPNN)의 구축을 위해 컴퓨터지능(CI)의 기반 기술을 이용한다. EFPNN의 구조는 규칙베이스 퍼지뉴럴네트워크와 다항식 뉴럴네트워크의 결합에 의한 유전자 최적 구동 하이브리드 시스템의 시너지 이용으로 얻어진다. 퍼지뉴럴네트워크는 EFPNN의 전체규칙 구조의 전반부에 기여하고, EFPNN의 후반부는 다항식 뉴럴네트워크를 사용하여 설계된다. EFPNN의 후반부를 위한 유전론적 최적 다항식 뉴럴네트워크의 개발은 두 최적화 기법에 의해 수행된다. 즉 구조적 최적화는 유전자알고리즘에 의해 수행되고, 파라미터 최적화는 최소자승법 기반의 학습을 통해 행하여진다. EFPNN의 성능 평가를 위해, 모델은 몇 가지 수치 예제를 이용한다. 비교에 의한 해석은 제안된 EFPNN이 이전에 제시된 다른 지능형 모델보다 높은 정확도 뿐만 아니라 좀 더 우수한 예측능력을 가지는 모델임을 보여준다.

방사성폐기물 처분공 주변 암주에서의 균열 진전 및 손상에 대한 수치해석적 연구 (A Numerical Study on the Fracture Evolution and Damage at Rock Pillar Near Deposition Holes for Radioactive Waste)

  • 이희석
    • 한국지반공학회논문집
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    • 제19권5호
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    • pp.211-221
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    • 2003
  • 스웨덴$\"{A}"{s}"{p}"{o}$지하실험실에서는 방사성폐기물 처분공 사이 암반에서의 파쇄 및 안정성을 예측할 수 있는 능력을 평가하기 위해 $\"{A}"{s}"{p}"{o}$ 암주 안정성 실험 (APSE)이라고 하는 현지 가열 실험이 준비되고 있다. 계획된 시험 조건하의 암주에서의 균열 진전 과정을 합리적으로 예측하기 위해 경계요소 수치해석 코드인 FRACOD가 적용되었다. 암석경계와 무결암석 내에서의 균열 진전을 모사하기 위해 코드를 개선하였다. 또한 굴착 및 열하중에 의해 발생하는 응력분포를 FRACOD모델에 적용하기 위해 새로운 경계요소를 이용한 역해법을 개발하였다. 이 글은 계획된 시험조건에 대한 예측 모델링 결과를 제시한다. 굴착에 의한 응력분포는 암주 벽면에 약간의 균열을 발생시켰다. 120일 동안의 가열에 의해 암주 벽면 중앙부에서 전형적인 전단 균열들의 개시 및 전파가 일어났지만, 전반적으로 암주 내부는 고려되는 조건하에서 안정한 상태를 유지하였다. 기존 절리들의 존재와 균열 물성에 따른 영향이 또한 논의되었다. 해석 결과를 통해 FRACOD가 심부 터널 및 보어홀에서 취성 암반의 균열 진전 현상을 적절히 모델링할 수 있음을 알 수 있다. 취성 암반의 균열 진전 현상을 적절히 모델링할 수 있음을 알 수 있다.

야외 송아지 설사변에서 작은와포자충 검출에 대한 평가 (Evaluation for detection of Cryptosporidium oocysts in diarrheal feces of calves)

  • 위성환;주후돈;강영배
    • Parasites, Hosts and Diseases
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    • 제34권2호
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    • pp.121-126
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    • 1996
  • 작은와포자충이 송아지에서 설사에 직접적으로 영향을 미치는지를 알아보고자 야외에서 설사를 발현하는 4개월 이하의 송아지 분변 총 201건를 수거하여 DMSO-modified acid fast 염색법 (MAFS), commercial kit(Meridian Diagnostics, Cincinnati, Ohio) 그리고 본 실험실에서 만 든 단세포군항체(C6)를 이용한 간접형광항체법(IFA)으로 작은와포자충의 검출을 시도하였다. 작 은와포자충의 검출은 MAFS에서 29건(14.4%) commercial kit와 IFA에서 각각 23건씩(11.4%) 검출되었다. 작은와포자충 오오시스트의 검출에 사응된 진단기법간의 진단일치율을 비교 하였던 바 msS를 기준으로 하였을 때 IFA는 민감도 69%. 특이성 98%였다. Commercial kit와 IFA진단법에서는 양성 22건, 음성 177건이 서로 일치하였으며. commercial kit를 기준으로 할 때 IFA의 민감도는 96%, 특이성 99% 고리고 진단일치에 대한 기대치는 99%였다. 따라서 본 실험에 사용된 IFA는 commercialkit와 일치율이 높아 진단목적으로 사용될 수 있을 것으로 생각된다. 한편, IFA에서 작은와포자충이 검출된 23건의 분변에 대해 분변 g당 작은와포자충 오오시스트의 수(OPG)를 측정하였다. 14건이 $10^3$ 이하의 OPG수준을 나타냈으나 $10^5$ 이상의 OPG도 4건이었다. 작은와포자충에 감염되어 설사가 발현될 때의 OPG의 수준이 $10^5$ 이상임을 감안해 보면, 이번 조사된 송아지 설사변 201건 중 4건(5%)은 작은와포자충에 의한 설사로 분석되었다. 이러한 결과를 종합해보면, 국내메서 발생되는 송아지 설사 원인중 약 5%는 설사와 관련되는 다른 원인체와 관계없이 작은와포자충 단독감염만으로도 임상적으로 설사가 발현되고 있는 것으로 판단되었다.

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Southern Analysis after Long-range PCR: Clinical Application in Korean Patients with Myotonic Dystrophy 1

  • Yum, Mi-Sun;Lee, Beom Hee;Kim, Gu-Hwan;Lee, Jin-Joo;Choi, Seung Hoon;Lee, Joo Yeon;Kim, Jae-Min;Kim, Yoo-Mi;Ko, Tae-Sung;Yoo, Han-Wook
    • Journal of Genetic Medicine
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    • 제10권1호
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    • pp.33-37
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    • 2013
  • Purpose: Myotonic dystrophy 1 (DM1, OMIM 160900) is an autosomal-dominant muscular disorder caused by an expansion of CTG repeats in the 3' UTR of the DMPK gene. Variable expansions of CTG repeats preclude the accurate determination of repeat size. We tried to show the clinical and analytical validity of the application of Southern blotting after long-range PCR was demonstrated in Korean DM1 patients. Materials and Methods: The Southern blotting of long-range PCR was applied to 1,231 cases with clinical suspicion of DM1, between 2000 and 2011. PCR was performed using genomic DNA with forward 5'-CAGTTCACAACCGCTCCGAGC-3' and reverse 5'-CGTGGAGGATGGAACACGGAC-3' primers. Subsequently, the PCR fragments were subjected to gel electrophoresis, capillary transfer to a nylon membrane, hybridization with a labeled (CAG)10 probe. The correlation between clinical manifestations and the CTG repeat expansions were analyzed. Results: Among a total of 1,231 tested cases, 642 individuals were diagnosed with DM1 and the range of the detected expansion was 50 to 2,500 repeats; fourteen cases with mild DM1 ($75{\pm}14$ repeats), 602 cases with classical DM1 ($314{\pm}143$ repeats), and 26 cases with congenital DM1 ($1,219{\pm}402$ repeats). The positive and negative predictive values were 100%. The age at test requested and the CTG repeat numbers were inversely correlated (R=-0.444, P<0.01). Conclusion: This study indicates that Southern blotting after long-range PCR is a reliable diagnostic method DM1.