• Title/Summary/Keyword: predictive distribution

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Molecular Detection of Virulence Factors in Carbapenem-Resistant Pseudomonas aeruginosa Isolated from a Tertiary Hospital in Daejeon (대전지역의 3차 병원에서 분리된 Carbapenem 내성 Pseudomonas aeruginosa의 병독성 인자 검출)

  • Cho, Hye Hyun
    • Korean Journal of Clinical Laboratory Science
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    • v.51 no.3
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    • pp.301-308
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    • 2019
  • The emergence and spread of multidrug resistant (MDR) Pseudomonas aeruginosa is a critical problem worldwide. The pathogenesis of P. aeruginosa is due partly to the production of several cell-associated and extracellular virulence factors. This study examined the distribution of virulence factors and antimicrobial resistance patterns of carbapenem-resistant P. aeruginosa (CRPA) isolated from a tertiary hospital in Daejeon, Korea. Antimicrobial susceptibility testing was performed using the disk diffusion method, and PCR and DNA sequencing were performed to determine for the presence of virulence genes. In addition, the sequence type (ST) of MDR P. aeruginosa was investigated by multilocus sequence typing (MLST). Among 32 CRPA isolates, 14 (43.8%) were MDR and the major ST was ST235 (10 isolates, 71.4%). All isolates were positive for the presence of virulence genes and the most prevalent virulence genes were toxA, plcN, and phzM (100%). All isolates carried at least eight or more different virulence genes and nine (28.1%) isolates had 15 virulence genes. The presence of the exoU gene was detected in 71.4% of the MDR P. aeruginosa isolates. These results indicate that the presence of the exoU gene can be a predictive marker for the persistence of MDR P. aeruginosa isolates.

Bike Insurance Fraud Detection Model Using Balanced Randomforest Algorithm (균형 랜덤 포레스트를 이용한 이륜차 보험사기 적발 모형 개발)

  • Kim, Seunghoon;Lee, Soo Il;Kim, Tae ho
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.20 no.2
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    • pp.241-250
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    • 2022
  • Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, with increased 'untact' services and with unstable household economy, the bike insurance fraud is expected to surge. Moreover, the fraud methodology gets complicated. However, the fraud detection model for bike insurance is absent. we deal with the issue of skewed class distribution and reflect the criterion of fraud detection expert. We utilize a balanced random-forest algorithm to develop an efficient bike insurance fraud detection model. As a result, while the predictive performance of balanced random-forest model is superior than it of non-balanced model. There is no significant difference between the variables used by the experts and the confirmatory models. The important variables to detect frauds are turned out to be age and gender of driver, correspondence between insured and driver, the amount of self-repairing claim, and the amount of bodily injury liability.

Predicting Habitat Suitability of Carnivorous Alert Alien Freshwater Fish (포식성 유입주의 어류에 대한 서식처 적합도 평가)

  • Taeyong, Shim;Zhonghyun, Kim;Jinho, Jung
    • Ecology and Resilient Infrastructure
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    • v.10 no.1
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    • pp.11-19
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    • 2023
  • Alien species are known to threaten regional biodiversity globally, which has increased global interest regarding introduction of alien species. The Ministry of Environment of Korea designated species that have not yet been introduced into the country with potential threat as alert alien species to prevent damage to the ecosystem. In this study, potential habitats of Esox lucius and Maccullochella peelii, which are predatory and designated as alert alien fish, were predicted on a national basis. Habitat suitability was evaluated using EHSM (Ecological Habitat Suitability Model), and water temperature data were input to calculate Physiological Habitat Suitability (PHS). The prediction results have shown that PHS of the two fishes were mainly controlled by heat or cold stress, which resulted in biased habitat distribution. E. lucius was predicted to prefer the basins at high latitudes (Han and Geum River), while M. peelii preferred metropolitan areas. Through these differences, it was expected that the invasion pattern of each alien fish can be different due to thermal preference. Further studies are required to enhance the model's predictive power, and future predictions under climate change scenarios are required to aid establishing sustainable management plans.

Yield Comparison Simulation between Seasonal Climatic Scenarios for Italian Ryegrass (Lolium Multiflorum Lam.) in Southern Coastal Regions of Korea (우리나라 남부해안지역에서 이탈리안 라이그라스에 대한 계절적 기후시나리오 간 수량비교 시뮬레이션)

  • Kim, Moonju;Sung, Kyung Il
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Grassland and Forage Science
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    • v.42 no.1
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    • pp.1-9
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    • 2022
  • This study was carried out to compare the DMY (dry matter yield) of IRG (Italian ryegrass) in the southern coastal regions of Korea due to seasonal climate scenarios such as the Kaul-Changma (late monsoon) in autumn, extreme winter cold, and drought in the next spring. The IRG data (n = 203) were collected from various Reports for Collaborative Research Program to Develop New Cultivars of Summer Crops in Jeju, 203 Namwon, and Yeungam from the Rural Development Administration - (en DASH). In order to define the seasonal climate scenarios, climate variables including temperature, humidity, wind, sunshine were used by collected from the Korean Meteorological Administration. The discriminant analysis based on 5% significance level was performed to distinguish normal and abnormal climate scenarios. Furthermore, the DMY comparison was simulated based on the information of sample distribution of IRG. As a result, in the southern coastal regions, only the impact of next spring drought on DMY of IRG was critical. Although the severe winter cold was clearly classified from the normal, there was no difference in DMY. Thus, the DMY comparison was simulated only for the next spring drought. Under the yield comparison simulation, DMY (kg/ha) in the normal and drought was 14,743.83 and 12,707.97 respectively. It implies that the expected damage caused by the spring drought was about 2,000 kg/ha. Furthermore, the predicted DMY of spring drought was wider and slower than that of normal, indicating on high variability. This study is meaningful in confirming the predictive DMY damage and its possibility by spring drought for IRG via statistical simulation considering seasonal climate scenarios.

A Review of Quantitative Landslide Susceptibility Analysis Methods Using Physically Based Modelling (물리사면모델을 활용한 정량적 산사태 취약성 분석기법 리뷰)

  • Park, Hyuck-Jin;Lee, Jung-Hyun
    • The Journal of Engineering Geology
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    • v.32 no.1
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    • pp.27-40
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    • 2022
  • Every year landslides cause serious casualties and property damages around the world. As the accurate prediction of landslides is important to reduce the fatalities and economic losses, various approaches have been developed to predict them. Prediction methods can be divided into landslide susceptibility analysis, landslide hazard analysis and landslide risk analysis according to the type of the conditioning factors, the predicted level of the landslide dangers, and whether the expected consequence cased by landslides were considered. Landslide susceptibility analyses are mainly based on the available landslide data and consequently, they predict the likelihood of landslide occurrence by considering factors that can induce landslides and analyzing the spatial distribution of these factors. Various qualitative and quantitative analysis techniques have been applied to landslide susceptibility analysis. Recently, quantitative susceptibility analyses have predominantly employed the physically based model due to high predictive capacity. This is because the physically based approaches use physical slope model to analyze slope stability regardless of prior landslide occurrence. This approach can also reproduce the physical processes governing landslide occurrence. This review examines physically based landslide susceptibility analysis approaches.

Radar-based rainfall prediction using generative adversarial network (적대적 생성 신경망을 이용한 레이더 기반 초단시간 강우예측)

  • Yoon, Seongsim;Shin, Hongjoon;Heo, Jae-Yeong
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.56 no.8
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    • pp.471-484
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    • 2023
  • Deep learning models based on generative adversarial neural networks are specialized in generating new information based on learned information. The deep generative models (DGMR) model developed by Google DeepMind is an generative adversarial neural network model that generates predictive radar images by learning complex patterns and relationships in large-scale radar image data. In this study, the DGMR model was trained using radar rainfall observation data from the Ministry of Environment, and rainfall prediction was performed using an generative adversarial neural network for a heavy rainfall case in August 2021, and the accuracy was compared with existing prediction techniques. The DGMR generally resembled the observed rainfall in terms of rainfall distribution in the first 60 minutes, but tended to predict a continuous development of rainfall in cases where strong rainfall occurred over the entire area. Statistical evaluation also showed that the DGMR method is an effective rainfall prediction method compared to other methods, with a critical success index of 0.57 to 0.79 and a mean absolute error of 0.57 to 1.36 mm in 1 hour advance prediction. However, the lack of diversity in the generated results sometimes reduces the prediction accuracy, so it is necessary to improve the diversity and to supplement it with rainfall data predicted by a physics-based numerical forecast model to improve the accuracy of the forecast for more than 2 hours in advance.

Prediction of Decompensation and Death in Advanced Chronic Liver Disease Using Deep Learning Analysis of Gadoxetic Acid-Enhanced MRI

  • Subin Heo;Seung Soo Lee;So Yeon Kim;Young-Suk Lim;Hyo Jung Park;Jee Seok Yoon;Heung-Il Suk;Yu Sub Sung;Bumwoo Park;Ji Sung Lee
    • Korean Journal of Radiology
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    • v.23 no.12
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    • pp.1269-1280
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    • 2022
  • Objective: This study aimed to evaluate the usefulness of quantitative indices obtained from deep learning analysis of gadoxetic acid-enhanced hepatobiliary phase (HBP) MRI and their longitudinal changes in predicting decompensation and death in patients with advanced chronic liver disease (ACLD). Materials and Methods: We included patients who underwent baseline and 1-year follow-up MRI from a prospective cohort that underwent gadoxetic acid-enhanced MRI for hepatocellular carcinoma surveillance between November 2011 and August 2012 at a tertiary medical center. Baseline liver condition was categorized as non-ACLD, compensated ACLD, and decompensated ACLD. The liver-to-spleen signal intensity ratio (LS-SIR) and liver-to-spleen volume ratio (LS-VR) were automatically measured on the HBP images using a deep learning algorithm, and their percentage changes at the 1-year follow-up (ΔLS-SIR and ΔLS-VR) were calculated. The associations of the MRI indices with hepatic decompensation and a composite endpoint of liver-related death or transplantation were evaluated using a competing risk analysis with multivariable Fine and Gray regression models, including baseline parameters alone and both baseline and follow-up parameters. Results: Our study included 280 patients (153 male; mean age ± standard deviation, 57 ± 7.95 years) with non-ACLD, compensated ACLD, and decompensated ACLD in 32, 186, and 62 patients, respectively. Patients were followed for 11-117 months (median, 104 months). In patients with compensated ACLD, baseline LS-SIR (sub-distribution hazard ratio [sHR], 0.81; p = 0.034) and LS-VR (sHR, 0.71; p = 0.01) were independently associated with hepatic decompensation. The ΔLS-VR (sHR, 0.54; p = 0.002) was predictive of hepatic decompensation after adjusting for baseline variables. ΔLS-VR was an independent predictor of liver-related death or transplantation in patients with compensated ACLD (sHR, 0.46; p = 0.026) and decompensated ACLD (sHR, 0.61; p = 0.023). Conclusion: MRI indices automatically derived from the deep learning analysis of gadoxetic acid-enhanced HBP MRI can be used as prognostic markers in patients with ACLD.

EEPERF(Experiential Education PERFormance): An Instrument for Measuring Service Quality in Experiential Education (체험형 교육 서비스 품질 측정 항목에 관한 연구: 창의적 체험활동을 중심으로)

  • Park, Ky-Yoon;Kim, Hyun-Sik
    • Journal of Distribution Science
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    • v.10 no.2
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    • pp.43-52
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    • 2012
  • As experiential education services are growing, the need for proper management is increasing. Considering that adequate measures are an essential factor for achieving success in managing something, it is important for managers to use a proper system of metrics to measure the performance of experiential education services. However, in spite of this need, little research has been done to develop a valid and reliable set of metrics for assessing the quality of experiential education services. The current study aims to develop a multi-item instrument for assessing the service quality of experiential education. The specific procedure is as follows. First, we generated a pool of possible metrics based on diverse literature on service quality. We elicited possiblemetric items not only from general service quality metrics such as SERVQUAL and SERVPERF but also from educational service quality metrics such as HEdPERF and PESPERF. Second, specialist teachers in the experiential education area screened the initial metrics to boost face validity. Third, we proceeded with multiple rounds of empirical validation of those metrics. Based on this processes, we refined the metrics to determine the final metrics to be used. Fourth, we examined predictive validity by checking the well-established positive relationship between each dimension of metrics and customer satisfaction. In sum, starting with the initial pool of scale items elicited from the previous literature and purifying them empirically through the surveying method, we developed a four-dimensional systemized scale to measure the superiority of experiential education and named it "Experiential Education PERFormance" (EEPERF). Our findings indicate that students (consumers) perceive the superiority of the experiential education (EE) service in the following four dimensions: EE-empathy, EE-reliability, EE-outcome, and EE-landscape. EE-empathy is a judgment in response to the question, "How empathetically does the experiential educational service provider interact with me?" Principal measures are "How well does the service provider understand my needs?," and "How well does the service provider listen to my voice?" Next, EE-reliability is a judgment in response to the question, "How reliably does the experiential educational service provider interact with me?" Major measures are "How reliable is the schedule here?," and "How credible is the service provider?" EE-outcome is a judgmentin response to the question, "What results could I get from this experiential educational service encounter?" Representative measures are "How good is the information that I will acquire form this service encounter?," and "How useful is this service encounter in helping me develop creativity?" Finally, EE-landscape is a judgment about the physical environment. Essential measures are "How convenient is the access to the service encounter?,"and "How well managed are the facilities?" We showed the reliability and validity of the system of metrics. All four dimensions influence customer satisfaction significantly. Practitioners may use the results in planning experiential educational service programs and evaluating each service encounter. The current study isexpected to act as a stepping-stone for future scale improvement. In this case, researchers may use the experience quality paradigm that has recently arisen.

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Magnetic Resonance Imaging Factors Predicting Re-excision in Breast Cancer Patients Having Undergone Conserving Therapy (유방보존술을 시행받는 유방암환자에서 재절제 예측의 자기공명영상소견)

  • Jang, Mijung;Kim, Sun Mi;Yun, Bo La;Kim, Sung-Won;Kang, Eun Young;Park, So Yeon;Kim, Jee Hyun;Kim, Yeongmi;Ahn, Hye Shin
    • Investigative Magnetic Resonance Imaging
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    • v.18 no.2
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    • pp.133-143
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    • 2014
  • Purpose : The aim of this study was to determine the magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) features associated with re-excision due to the presence of a positive margin after breast conserving therapy (BCT) in breast cancer patients. Materials and Methods: We reviewed the records of 286 consecutive breast cancer patients who received BCT between January 2006 and December 2007. Among 246 patients who had undergone BCT, 38 (15.4%) underwent immediate further surgery due to positive margin status. We analyzed the MRI findings using ${\chi}^2$ test, Fisher's exact test and t tests. Multivariate logistic regression was conducted for prediction of re-excision. Results: Tumor size (p < 0.001), lesion multiplicity (p = 0.003), and non-mass-like enhancement (NMLE) type on MRI (p < 0.001) were associated with margin involvement in BCT. On preoperative MRI, larger size (${\geq}5cm$) (odds ratio = 2.96), NMLE (odds ratio = 3.81), and multifocal lesions (odds ratio = 2.54) were positively associated with re-excision. In cases involving NMLE, segmental distribution was associated with a greater likelihood of immediate re-excision. Conclusion: Larger size, multiplicity, and NMLE on MRI are significantly associated with re-excision after BCT in breast cancer patients. For NMLE lesions, the segmental distribution pattern was predictive of re-excision.

Tissue Distribution of HuR Protein in Crohn's Disease and IBD Experimental Model (염증성 장질환 모델 및 크론병 환자에서의 점막상피 HuR 단백질의 변화 분석)

  • Choi, Hye Jin;Park, Jae-Hong;Park, Jiyeon;Kim, Juil;Park, Seong-Hwan;Oh, Chang Gyu;Do, Kee Hun;Song, Bo Gyoung;Lee, Seung Joon;Moon, Yuseok
    • Journal of Life Science
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    • v.24 no.12
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    • pp.1339-1344
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    • 2014
  • Inflammatory bowel disease is an immune disorder associated with chronic mucosal inflammation and severe ulceration in the gastrointestinal tract. Antibodies against proinflammatory cytokines, including TNF${\alpha}$, are currently used as promising therapeutic agents against the disease. Stabilization of the transcript is a crucial post-transcriptional process in the expression of proinflammatory cytokines. In the present study, we assessed the expression and histological distribution of the HuR protein, an important transcript stabilizer, in tissues from experimental animals and patients with Crohn's disease. The total and cytosolic levels of the HuR protein were enhanced in the intestinal epithelia from dextran sodium sulfate (DSS)-treated mice compared to those in control tissues from normal mice. Moreover, the expression of HuR was very high only in the mucosal and glandular epithelium, and the relative localization of the protein was sequestered in the lower parts of the villus during the DSS insult. The expression of HuR was significantly higher in mucosal lesions than in normal-looking areas. Consistent with the data from the animal model, the expression of HuR was confined to the mucosal and glandular epithelium. These results suggest that HuR may contribute to the post-transcriptional regulation of proinflammatory genes during early mucosal insults. More mechanistic investigations are warranted to determine the potential use of HuR as a predictive biomarker or a promising target against IBD.