• Title/Summary/Keyword: prediction skill

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Implementation of Wireless Network Design Tool for TD-SCDMA (TD-SCDMA 무선망 설계 Tool 의 구현 방법론)

  • Jeon, Hyun-Cheol;Ryu, Jae-Hyun;Park, Sang-Jin;Kim, Jung-Chul;Ihm, Jong-Tae
    • 한국정보통신설비학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 2007.08a
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    • pp.247-250
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    • 2007
  • There are three main kinds of service standards for 3G(Third-Generation) wireless communication as WCDMA, CDMA2000 and TD-SCDMA(Time Division-Synchronous Code Division Multiple Access). Compare with WCDMA and CDMA2000, TD-SCDMA system has distinguished technical characters. It is a TDD(Time Division Duplexing) based technology and deploys several advanced but in some respects complex technologies such as smart antenna, joint-detection and baton-handoff, etc. Therefore to analyze and design TD-SCDMA wireless network, it needs more efficient and systematic simulation tool. General simulation tool has so many analysis functions including path loss prediction, capacity and coverage analysis. For more suitable for TD-SCDMA, new additional technologies have to be implemented in simulation tool. Especially as the wireless network highly advancing focused on data service, it more needs to research and develop on the reliability of the simulation tool. In this paper, to give the concrete process and skill about how to implement TD-SCDMA simulation tool, we define the kinds of simulation tool and list basic analysis functions available for TD-SCDMA network design at first. And then we explain how to consider the effects of new technologies of TD-SCDMA and give the solutions about theses considerations.

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Forecast and verification of perceived temperature using a mesoscale model over the Korean Peninsula during 2007 summer (중규모 수치 모델 자료를 이용한 2007년 여름철 한반도 인지온도 예보와 검증)

  • Byon, Jae-Young;Kim, Jiyoung;Choi, Byoung-Cheol;Choi, Young-Jean
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.18 no.3
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    • pp.237-248
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    • 2008
  • A thermal index which considers metabolic heat generation of human body is proposed for operational forecasting. The new thermal index, Perceived Temperature (PT), is forecasted using Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) mesoscale model and validated. Forecasted PT shows the characteristics of diurnal variation and topographic and latitudinal effect. Statistical skill scores such as correlation, bias, and RMSE are employed for objective verification of PT and input meteorological variables which are used for calculating PT. Verification result indicates that the accuracy of air temperature and wind forecast is higher in the initial forecast time, while relative humidity is improved as the forecast time increases. The forecasted PT during 2007 summer is lower than PT calculated by observation data. The predicted PT has a minimum Root-Mean-Square-Error (RMSE) of $7-8^{\circ}C$ at 9-18 hour forecast. Spatial distribution of PT shows that it is overestimated in western region, while PT in middle-eastern region is underestimated due to strong wind and low temperature forecast. Underestimation of wind speed and overestimation of relative humidity have caused higher PT than observation in southern region. The predicted PT from the mesoscale model gives appropriate information as a thermal index forecast. This study suggests that forecasted PT is applicable to the prediction of health warning based on the relationship between PT and mortality.

Applications of Artificial Neural Networks for Using High Performance Concrete (고성능 콘크리트의 활용을 위한 신경망의 적용)

  • Yang, Seung-Il;Yoon, Young-Soo;Lee, Seung-Hoon;Kim, Gyu-Dong
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation
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    • v.3 no.4 s.11
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    • pp.119-129
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    • 2003
  • Concrete and steel are essential structural materials in the construction. But, concrete, different from steel, consists of many materials and is affected by many factors such as properties of materials, site environmental situations, and skill of constructors. Concrete have two kinds of properties, immediately knowing properties such as slump, air contents and time dependent one like strength. Therefore, concrete mixes depend on experiences of experts. However, at point of time using High Performance Concrete, new method is wanted because of more ingredients like mineral and chemical admixtures and lack of data. Artificial Neural Networks(ANN) are a mimic models of human brain to solve a complex nonlinear problem. They are powerful pattern recognizers and classifiers, also their computing abilities have been proven in the fields of prediction, estimation and pattern recognition. Here, among them, the back propagation network and radial basis function network ate used. Compositions of high-performance concrete mixes are eight components(water, cement, fine aggregate, coarse aggregate, fly ash, silica fume, superplasticizer and air-entrainer). Compressive strength, slump, and air contents are measured. The results show that neural networks are proper tools to minimize the uncertainties of the design of concrete mixtures.

Time Series Analysis of the Subsurface Oceanic Data and Prediction of the Sea Surface Temperature in the Tropical Pacific (적도 태평양 아표층 자료의 시계열 분석 및 표층 수온 예측)

  • Chang You-Soon;Lee Da-Un;Youn Yong-Hoon;Seo Jang-Won
    • Journal of the Korean earth science society
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    • v.26 no.7
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    • pp.706-713
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    • 2005
  • Subsurface oceanic data (Z20; Depth of $20^{\circ}C$ isotherm and WWV; Warm Water Volume) from the tropical Pacific Ocean from 1980 to 2004 were utilized to examine upper ocean variations in relation to E1 Nino. Time series analysis using EOF, composite, and cross-correlation methods indicated that there are significant time delays between subsurface oceanic parameters and the Nino3.4 SST. It implied that Z20 and WWV would be more reliable predictors of El Nino events. Based on analyzed results, we also constructed neural network model to predict the Nino3.4 SST from 1996 to 2004. The forecasting skills for the model using WWV were statistically higher than that using the trade wind except for short range forecasting less than 3 months. This model greatly predicted SST than any other previous statistical model, especially at lead times of 5 to 8 months.

A Numerical Simulation of Blizzard Caused by Polar Low at King Sejong Station, Antarctica (극 저기압(Polar Low) 통과에 의해 발생한 남극 세종기지 강풍 사례 모의 연구)

  • Kwon, Hataek;Park, Sang-Jong;Lee, Solji;Kim, Seong-Joong;Kim, Baek-Min
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.26 no.2
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    • pp.277-288
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    • 2016
  • Polar lows are intense mesoscale cyclones that mainly occur over the sea in polar regions. Owing to their small spatial scale of a diameter less than 1000 km, simulating polar lows is a challenging task. At King Sejong station in West Antartica, polar lows are often observed. Despite the recent significant climatic changes observed over West Antarctica, adequate validation of regional simulations of extreme weather events such as polar lows are rare for this region. To address this gap, simulation results from a recent version of the Polar Weather Research and Forecasting model (Polar WRF) covering Antartic Peninsula at a high horizontal resolution of 3 km are validated against near-surface meteorological observations. We selected a case of high wind speed event on 7 January 2013 recorded at Automatic Meteorological Observation Station (AMOS) in King Sejong station, Antarctica. It is revealed by in situ observations, numerical weather prediction, and reanalysis fields that the synoptic and mesoscale environment of the strong wind event was due to the passage of a strong mesoscale polar low of center pressure 950 hPa. Verifying model results from 3 km grid resolution simulation against AMOS observation showed that high skill in simulating wind speed and surface pressure with a bias of $-1.1m\;s^{-1}$ and -1.2 hPa, respectively. Our evaluation suggests that the Polar WRF can be used as a useful dynamic downscaling tool for the simulation of Antartic weather systems and the near-surface meteorological instruments installed in King Sejong station can provide invaluable data for polar low studies over West Antartica.

Classification Algorithm for Liver Lesions of Ultrasound Images using Ensemble Deep Learning (앙상블 딥러닝을 이용한 초음파 영상의 간병변증 분류 알고리즘)

  • Cho, Young-Bok
    • The Journal of the Institute of Internet, Broadcasting and Communication
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    • v.20 no.4
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    • pp.101-106
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    • 2020
  • In the current medical field, ultrasound diagnosis can be said to be the same as a stethoscope in the past. However, due to the nature of ultrasound, it has the disadvantage that the prediction of results is uncertain depending on the skill level of the examiner. Therefore, this paper aims to improve the accuracy of liver lesion detection during ultrasound examination based on deep learning technology to solve this problem. In the proposed paper, we compared the accuracy of lesion classification using a CNN model and an ensemble model. As a result of the experiment, it was confirmed that the classification accuracy in the CNN model averaged 82.33% and the ensemble model averaged 89.9%, about 7% higher. Also, it was confirmed that the ensemble model was 0.97 in the average ROC curve, which is about 0.4 higher than the CNN model.

Potential Impact of Climate Change on Distribution of Hedera rhombea in the Korean Peninsula (기후변화에 따른 송악의 잠재서식지 분포 변화 예측)

  • Park, Seon Uk;Koo, Kyung Ah;Seo, Changwan;Kong, Woo-Seok
    • Journal of Climate Change Research
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    • v.7 no.3
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    • pp.325-334
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    • 2016
  • We projected the distribution of Hedera rhombea, an evergreen broad-leaved climbing plant, under current climate conditions and predicted its future distributions under global warming. Inaddition, weexplained model uncertainty by employing 9 single Species Distribution model (SDM)s to model the distribution of Hedera rhombea. 9 single SDMs were constructed with 736 presence/absence data and 3 temperature and 3 precipitation data. Uncertainty of each SDM was assessed with TSS (Ture Skill Statistics) and AUC (the Area under the curve) value of ROC (receiver operating characteristic) analyses. To reduce model uncertainty, we combined 9 single SDMs weighted by TSS and resulted in an ensemble forecast, a TSS weighted ensemble. We predicted future distributions of Hedera rhombea under future climate conditions for the period of 2050 (2040~2060), which were estimated with HadGEM2-AO. RF (Random Forest), GBM (Generalized Boosted Model) and TSS weighted ensemble model showed higher prediction accuracies (AUC > 0.95, TSS > 0.80) than other SDMs. Based on the projections of TSS weighted ensemble, potential habitats under current climate conditions showed a discrepancy with actual habitats, especially in the northern distribution limit. The observed northern boundary of Hedera rhombea is Ulsan in the eastern Korean Peninsula, but the projected limit was eastern coast of Gangwon province. Geomorphological conditions and the dispersal limitations mediated by birds, the lack of bird habitats at eastern coast of Gangwon Province, account for such discrepancy. In general, potential habitats of Hedera rhombea expanded under future climate conditions, but the extent of expansions depend on RCP scenarios. Potential Habitat of Hedera rhombea expanded into Jeolla-inland area under RCP 4.5, and into Chungnam and Wonsan under RCP 8.5. Our results would be fundamental information for understanding the potential effects of climate change on the distribution of Hedera rhombea.

A hidden Markov model for long term drought forecasting in South Korea

  • Chen, Si;Shin, Ji-Yae;Kim, Tae-Woong
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2015.05a
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    • pp.225-225
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    • 2015
  • Drought events usually evolve slowly in time and their impacts generally span a long period of time. This indicates that the sequence of drought is not completely random. The Hidden Markov Model (HMM) is a probabilistic model used to represent dependences between invisible hidden states which finally result in observations. Drought characteristics are dependent on the underlying generating mechanism, which can be well modelled by the HMM. This study employed a HMM with Gaussian emissions to fit the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) series and make multi-step prediction to check the drought characteristics in the future. To estimate the parameters of the HMM, we employed a Bayesian model computed via Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). Since the true number of hidden states is unknown, we fit the model with varying number of hidden states and used reversible jump to allow for transdimensional moves between models with different numbers of states. We applied the HMM to several stations SPI data in South Korea. The monthly SPI data from January 1973 to December 2012 was divided into two parts, the first 30-year SPI data (January 1973 to December 2002) was used for model calibration and the last 10-year SPI data (January 2003 to December 2012) for model validation. All the SPI data was preprocessed through the wavelet denoising and applied as the visible output in the HMM. Different lead time (T= 1, 3, 6, 12 months) forecasting performances were compared with conventional forecasting techniques (e.g., ANN and ARMA). Based on statistical evaluation performance, the HMM exhibited significant preferable results compared to conventional models with much larger forecasting skill score (about 0.3-0.6) and lower Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) values (about 0.5-0.9).

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Prediction of Material's Formation Energy Using Crystal Graph Convolutional Neural Network (결정그래프 합성곱 인공신경망을 통한 소재의 생성 에너지 예측)

  • Lee, Hyun-Gi;Seo, Dong-Hwa
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Electrical and Electronic Material Engineers
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    • v.35 no.2
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    • pp.134-142
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    • 2022
  • As industry and technology go through advancement, it is hard to search new materials which satisfy various standards through conventional trial-and-error based research methods. Crystal Graph Convolutional Neural Network(CGCNN) is a neural network which uses material's features as train data, and predicts the material properties(formation energy, bandgap, etc.) much faster than first-principles calculation. This report introduces how to train the CGCNN model which predicts the formation energy using open database. It is anticipated that with a simple programming skill, readers could construct a model using their data and purpose. Developing machine learning model for materials science is going to help researchers who should explore large chemical and structural space to discover materials efficiently.

Role of the prediction skill of near-surface temperature in seasonal forecasting: A case study of U.S. droughts (근지표면 온도 예측성이 계절적 예보에 미치는 영향: 미국 가뭄의 사례연구)

  • Kam, Jonghun
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2021.06a
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    • pp.73-73
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    • 2021
  • 가뭄의 계절적 예측성을 개선하기 위해서는 대기-지면-해양의 상호 작용이 현실적으로 모의할 수 있는 지구 기후 예보 모델의 개선이 필수적이다. 제한적인 기후 예보 모델의 예측성으로 인하여 다중 기후 모델들의 다중 앙상블 계절 예보 시스템이 제안되었다. 2008년에 제안된 북미 다중 모델 다중 앙상블 시스템(North American Multimodel Multiensemble System; NMME)은 다양한 모델 개발팀의 참여로 현재까지 운영되면서 계절적 예측성 연구에 큰 이바지를 하였다. 본 연구에서는 NMME 프로젝트에 참여하는 기후 예보 모델들의 북방 여름철 근지표면 온도과 강우량의 예측성을 진단하고 이들의 상관 관계의 강도를 관측데이터와 비교 분석하였다. 대부분의 NMME 모델들에서는 관측데이터에서 보다 강한 음의 상관 관계를 보였다. 이런 근지표면 온도와 강우량의 강한 상관 관계로 우수한 근지 표면 온도 예보는 각각의 해마다 그 역할이 다른 것을 발견되었다. 예를 들어 가문 여름에는 우수한 근지표면 온도 예보가 강우량 예보에 도움이 되고 강우량이 많은 여름에는 우수한 근지표면 온도 예보는 오히려 강우량 예측성을 제한하게 된다. 따라서 기존의 기후 예보 모델들에서 근지표면 온도와 강우량의 상관관계를 사실적으로 나타낼 수 있도록 모델 개선이 요구된다. 마지막으로 관측데이터와 기후 모델데이터에서 태평양과 대서양의 해수면 온도와 미국의 북방 여름철 날씨의 관계를 비교하였다. 근지표면 온도과 강우량에 대한 제한적 예측성에 비해, 대부분의 NMME 기후 예보 모델들에서 해수면 온도의 예측기술은 우수함을 발견하였고 몇몇 모델들에서는 미국의 북방 여름철 기후에 영향력을 주는 대서양과 태평양의 지역까지 잘 모사하는 것을 발견하였다. 따라서 본 연구는 보다 우수한 기후 예보 기술을 위해 앙상블 평균 예보값만이 아닌 NMME의 계절적 예보를 선택적인 사용이 필요함을 제안하였고 앞으로 북미 대륙 뿐만이 아니라 유럽-아시아의 계절적 이상 기후 예측성에 대한 연구 필요성을 강조하였다.

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