• Title/Summary/Keyword: prediction skill

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Exploring Reasoning Patterns of Students' Scientific Thinking, Inquiry Activities in Textbook, and Examination Items

  • Kim, Young-Shin;Kwon, Yong-Ju;Yang, Il-Ho;Chung, Wan-Ho
    • Journal of The Korean Association For Science Education
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.309-318
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    • 2003
  • Scientific reasoning is one of the main concerns in current science education. This study have tried to answer on the question whether Korean science education has the potential to help improve of students' ability to think scientifically. Therefore, the present study investigated the relationship between reasoning patterns evident in science textbook and science examination items, and students' scientific reasoning skills across grades in Korea. 1975 subjects (1022 females and 953 males) were administered in the Lawson's Test of Scientific Reasoning skills. Forty seven science textbooks and 240 assessment instrument were analyzed by several scientific reasoning keys. Scientific reasoning patterns were adopted from Lawson's classification which characterized the patterns as the empirical-inductive and the hypothetical-deductive. This study found that reasoning patterns evident in textbook analyses and assessment instrumental items do not evidentce the potential to stimulate the development of students' reasoning skill. In order to improve the students' abilities to think and achieve, higher levels of reasoning must be included in the science textbook and examination. Further, some of scientific reasoning processes, such as generating hypotheses, designing experiments, and logical prediction, were not found in science textbooks and test items in Korean secondary schools. This study also discussed the educational implication of these results and further studies about to develop student's reasoning ability.

Various Techniques for Improving of the Reliability of the Wireless Network Design/Optimization Simulation Tool (무선망 설계/최적화 시뮬레이션 툴 의 다양한 신뢰도 향상 기법)

  • Jeon Hyun-Cheol;Ryu Jae-Hyun;Park Sang-Jin;Park Joo-Yeoul;Kim Jung-Chul
    • 한국정보통신설비학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 2006.08a
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    • pp.39-42
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    • 2006
  • There are various analysis functions(including prediction of path loss, analyzing of capacity and coverage, etc.) of simulation tool to design and optimize the mobile communication network. Its reliability absolutely effects the performance of mobile communication network. Especially as the wireless network highly advancing focused on data service, it more needs to research and develop on the standard establishment of reliability of the simulation tool. Also it is important the systematic research how to improve the reliability of simulation tool. In this paper, to give the concrete process and skill about how to improve reliability, we define the kinds of reliability at first. And then we explain the comparison results between real field measurement data and theoretic simulation data.

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Analysis of Angular Deformation in Multi-pass Butt Joint Welding of Thick Plates with X-shape Grooves using the Finite Element Method (X형 개선을 가진 후판 맞대기 용접에 있어서 유한요소법을 이용한 각변형 해석)

  • Yang, Young-Soo;Bae, Kang-Yul
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Manufacturing Process Engineers
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    • v.17 no.4
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    • pp.169-176
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    • 2018
  • Removal of angular deformation induced during the welding of butt joints in thick steel plates needs expert skill and is costly. To reduce deformation, proper joint designs are studied with a prediction of deformation prior to welding. However, as the thickness of a plate increases, a predictive analysis of the welding process is more difficult, especially if there is an increase in the number of welding passes in the joint. In this study, a numerical model with the finite element method (FEM) was developed to analyze the angular deformation in the multi-pass welding of butt joints of plates made of AH32 steel that had a thickness of up to 100 mm. A series of numerical simulations were then performed based on the developed model to predict the deformations for thick plates. With the results obtained by the analyses, this study suggested optimal X-shape grooves for the butt joints of thick plates to minimize the angular deformation. As the thickness of the plate increased to 100 mm, the ratio of the depth of the front-side groove to that of the back-side groove should be gradually increased to nearly 1:3.

Analysis for Onset of Changma Using Ieodo Ocean Research Station Data (이어도 기상 관측 자료를 활용한 장마 시작일 분석)

  • Oh, Hyoeun;Ha, Kyung-Ja;Shim, Jae-Seol
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.189-196
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    • 2014
  • The definition of onset date of Changma is revisited in this study using a quality controlled Ieodo ocean research station data. The Ieodo station has great importance in terms of its southwest location from Korean Peninsula and, hence, makes it possible to predict Changma period in advance with less impact of continents. The onset date of Changma using the Ieodo station data is defined by the time that meridional wind direction changes and maintains from northerly to southerly, and then the zonal wind changes from easterly to westerly after first June. This definition comes from a recognition that the establishment and movement of the western North Pacific subtropical high (WNPSH) cause Changma through southwesterly flow. The onset data of Changma has been determined by large-scale dynamic-thermodynamic characteristics or various meteorological station data. However, even the definition based on circulation data at the Ieodo station has a potential for the improved prediction skill of the onset date of Changma. The differences between before and after Changma, defined as Ieodo station data, are also found in synoptic chart. The convective instability and conspicuous circulations, corresponding low-level southwesterly flow related to WNPSH and strong upper-level zonal wind, are represented during Changma.

A Study of Static Bias Correction for Temperature of Aircraft based Observations in the Korean Integrated Model (한국형모델의 항공기 관측 온도의 정적 편차 보정 연구)

  • Choi, Dayoung;Ha, Ji-Hyun;Hwang, Yoon-Jeong;Kang, Jeon-ho;Lee, Yong Hee
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.30 no.4
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    • pp.319-333
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    • 2020
  • Aircraft observations constitute one of the major sources of temperature observations which provide three-dimensional information. But it is well known that the aircraft temperature data have warm bias against sonde observation data, and therefore, the correction of aircraft temperature bias is important to improve the model performance. In this study, the algorithm of the bias correction modified from operational KMA (Korea Meteorological Administration) global model is adopted in the preprocessing of aircraft observations, and the effect of the bias correction of aircraft temperature is investigated by conducting the two experiments. The assimilation with the bias correction showed better consistency in the analysis-forecast cycle in terms of the differences between observations (radiosonde and GPSRO (Global Positioning System Radio Occultation)) and 6h forecast. This resulted in an improved forecasting skill level of the mid-level temperature and geopotential height in terms of the root-mean-square error. It was noted that the benefits of the correction of aircraft temperature bias was the upper-level temperature in the midlatitudes, and this affected various parameters (winds, geopotential height) via the model dynamics.

Prediction of Hardness for Cold Forging Manufacturing through Machine Learning (기계학습을 활용한 냉간단조 부품 제조 경도 예측 연구)

  • K. Kim;J-.G. Park;U. R. Heo;Y. H. Lee;D. H. Chang;H. W. Yang
    • Transactions of Materials Processing
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    • v.32 no.6
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    • pp.329-334
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    • 2023
  • The process of heat treatment in cold forging is an essential role in enhancing mechanical properties. However, it relies heavily on the experience and skill of individuals. The aim of this study is to predict hardness using machine learning to optimize production efficiency in cold forging manufacturing. Random Forest (RF), Gradient Boosting Regressor (GBR), Extra Trees (ET), and ADAboosting (ADA) models were utilized. In the result, the RF, GBR, and ET models show the excellent performance. However, it was observed that GBR and ET models leaned significantly towards the influence of temperature, unlike the RF model. We suggest that RF model demonstrates greater reliability in predicting hardness due to its ability to consider various variables that occur during the cold forging process.

A Numerical Simulation Study of Strong Wind Events at Jangbogo Station, Antarctica (남극 장보고기지 주변 강풍사례 모의 연구)

  • Kwon, Hataek;Kim, Shin-Woo;Lee, Solji;Park, Sang-Jong;Choi, Taejin;Jeong, Jee-Hoon;Kim, Seong-Joong;Kim, Baek-Min
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.26 no.4
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    • pp.617-633
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    • 2016
  • Jangbogo station is located in Terra Nova Bay over the East Antarctica, which is often affected by individual storms moving along nearby storm tracks and a katabatic flow from the continental interior towards the coast. A numerical simulation for two strong wind events of maximum instantaneous wind speed ($41.17m\;s^{-1}$) and daily mean wind speed ($23.92m\;s^{-1}$) at Jangbogo station are conducted using the polar-optimized version of Weather Research and Forecasting model (Polar WRF). Verifying model results from 3 km grid resolution simulation against AWS observation at Jangbogo station, the case of maximum instantaneous wind speed is relatively simulated well with high skill in wind with a bias of $-3.3m\;s^{-1}$ and standard deviation of $5.4m\;s^{-1}$. The case of maximum daily mean wind speed showed comparatively lower accuracy for the simulation of wind speed with a bias of -7.0 m/s and standard deviation of $8.6m\;s^{-1}$. From the analysis, it is revealed that the each case has different origins for strong wind. The highest maximum instantaneous wind case is caused by the approach of the strong synoptic low pressure system moving toward Terra Nova Bay from North and the other daily wind maximum speed case is mainly caused by the katabatic flow from the interiors of Terra Nova Bay towards the coast. Our evaluation suggests that the Polar WRF can be used as a useful dynamic downscaling tool for the simulation and investigation of high wind events at Jangbogo station. However, additional efforts in utilizing the high resolution terrain is required to reduce the simulation error of high wind mainly caused by katabatic flow, which is received a lot of influence of the surrounding terrain.

Summer Precipitation Forecast Using Satellite Data and Numerical Weather Forecast Model Data (광역 위성 영상과 수치예보자료를 이용한 여름철 강수량 예측)

  • Kim, Gwang-Seob;Cho, So-Hyun
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.45 no.7
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    • pp.631-641
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    • 2012
  • In this study, satellite data (MTSAT-1R), a numerical weather prediction model, RDAPS (Regional Data Assimilation and Prediction System) output, ground weather station data, and artificial neural networks were used to improve the accuracy of summer rainfall forecasts. The developed model was applied to the Seoul station to forecast the rainfall at 3, 6, 9, and 12-hour lead times. Also to reflect the different weather conditions during the summer season which is related to the frontal precipitation and the cyclonic precipitation such as Jangma and Typhoon, the neural network models were formed for two different periods of June-July and August-September respectively. The rainfall forecast model was trained during the summer season of 2006 and 2008 and was verified for that of 2009 based on the data availability. The results demonstrated that the model allows us to get the improved rainfall forecasts until lead time of 6 hour, but there is still a large room to improve the rainfall forecast skill.

Technology Based on Wall-Thinning Prediction and Numerical Analysis Techniques for Wall-Thinning Analysis of Small-Bore Carbon Steel Piping (감육예측 및 수치해석 기법을 활용한 소구경 탄소강배관 감육영향 분석에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Dae-Young;Hwang, Kyeong-Mo;Jin, Tae-Eun;Park, Won;Oh, Dong-Hoon
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers B
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    • v.34 no.4
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    • pp.429-435
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    • 2010
  • In approximately fifty utilities, including KHNP (Korea Hydro & Nuclear Power), CHECWORKS is used as a tool for predicting and managing the wall thinning of carbon steel piping; this wall thinning is caused by flow-accelerated corrosion (FAC). It is known that CHECWORKS is only applicable to predict the wall thinning of piping with large bores. When dealing with small-bore steel piping, FAC engineers measure the thickness of the susceptible area that is selected on the basis of the experience and judgment of the engineer. This paper proposes the application of CHECWORKS for the management of wall thinning of small-bore piping. Four small-bore pipelines of a domestic nuclear power plant were analyzed from the viewpoints of FAC and fluid dynamics by using CHECWORKS and FLUENT code. Depending on the engineer's skill, CHECWORKS can also be used for the management of wall thinning of small-bore piping.

A Study of Construction Duration Predicting Method for Mega Project (메가프로젝트 사업초기단계 사업기간 예측 방법에 관한 연구)

  • Woo, Yu-Mi;Lee, Seung-Hoon;Lee, Hei-Duck;Seo, Yuong-Chil
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute Of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • 2008.11a
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    • pp.597-600
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    • 2008
  • Recently, Several Mega project are been performing as a multi-dimensional development project in Korea, but some problem has been revealed about deficiency of the history, experience, and skill. A multi-dimensional development project require the technology which can manage mega project to its specific at the level of program management. predicting schedule and schedule management are the most important for mega project, been performing over several years. This research shows the method of predicting and planning schedule in the early stage as a pre-study on developing a technology of schedule management. First of all, it presents the development of database considering the specific of mega project that can accumulate the history of schedule and search the schedule according to the type of single and multi building. Also it suggests the method of prediction schedule by creating scenarios according to owner requirements and cash flow, affecting schedule management in the early stage, and the shortening possibility of schedule duration using CCPM theory.

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