• Title/Summary/Keyword: prediction change

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Influence of Interests in Geographical Indication on the Prediction of Price Change of Agricultural Product : Case of Apples (지리적 표시제에 대한 관심이 농산물 가격변화 예측에 미치는 영향 연구 : 사과를 사례로)

  • Choi, Hyo Shin;Sohn, So Young
    • Journal of Korean Institute of Industrial Engineers
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    • v.41 no.4
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    • pp.359-367
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    • 2015
  • Geographical Indication (GI) has been used with the expectation to influence customer buying behavior. In this research, we empirically investigate if such relationship exists using apple price changes in Korea along with web search traffic reflecting customers' interest in GI. The experimental results indicate that the apple price of the past, apple supply and web search traffic including GI name were significant on the prediction of price change of Chungju while web search traffic of regional name and that of product were significant for Cheongsong apples with GI. In Yeongcheon with no GI, the apple price of the past turns out to be significant only. The results indicated that interests in GI can help the price prediction but the regional name itself can play the same role, if the GI product is well known in association with the region.

HYBRID CODING USING THE LMS ALGORITHM (LMS ALGORITHM을 이용한 HYBRID CODING)

  • Kim, Seung-Won;Lee, Keun-Young
    • Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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    • 1987.07b
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    • pp.1379-1382
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    • 1987
  • IN ADAPTIVE LINEAR PREDICTION, AN ADAPTIVE CAPABILITY IS BUILT INTO THE PROCESSOR SUCH THAT AS THE IMAGE STATISTICS CHANGE, THE PREDICTION FILTER COEFFICIENTS THEMSELVES CHANGE, PRODUCING A NEW FILTER MORE CLOSELY OPTIMIZED TO THE NEW SET OF IMAGES STATISTICS. THE LMS ALGORITHM MAY BE USED TO ADAPT THE COEFFICIENT OF AN ADAPTIVE PREDICTION FILTER FOR IMAGE SOURCE ENCODING. IN THIS PAPER, TWO CODING SYSTEMS USING DPCM AND LMS ALGORITHMS RESPECTIVELY FOR OBTAINING THE FIRST TRANSFORMED COEFFICIENT IN HYBRID CODING ARE COMPARED.

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A Prediction of Forest Vegetation based on Land Cover Change in 2090 (토지피복 변화를 반영한 미래의 산림식생 분포 예측에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Dong-Kun;Kim, Jae-Uk;Park, Chan
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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    • v.19 no.2
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    • pp.117-125
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    • 2010
  • Korea's researchers have recently studied the prediction of forest change, but they have not considered landuse/cover change compared to distribution of forest vegetation. The purpose of our study is to predict forest vegetation based on landuse/cover change on the Korean Peninsula in the 2090's. The methods of this study were Multi-layer perceptrom neural network for Landuse/cover (water, urban, barren, wetland, grass, forest, agriculture) change and Multinomial Logit Model for distribution prediction for forest vegetation (Pinus densiflora, Quercus Spp., Alpine Plants, Evergreen Broad-Leaved Plants). The classification accuracy of landuse/cover change on the Korean Peninsula was 71.3%. Urban areas expanded with large cities as the central, but forest and agriculture area contracted by 6%. The distribution model of forest vegetation has 63.6% prediction accuracy. Pinus densiflora and evergreen broad-leaved plants increased but Quercus Spp. and alpine plants decreased from the model. Finally, the results of forest vegetation based on landuse/cover change increased Pinus densiflora to 38.9% and evergreen broad-leaved plants to 70% when it is compared to the current climate. But Quercus Spp. decreased 10.2% and alpine plants disappeared almost completely for most of the Korean Peninsula. These results were difficult to make a distinction between the increase of Pinus densiflora and the decrease of Quercus Spp. because of they both inhabit a similar environment on the Korean Peninsula.

Comparison of prediction methods for Nonlinear Time series data with Intervention1)

  • Lee, Sung-Duck;Kim, Ju-Sung
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.14 no.2
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    • pp.265-274
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    • 2003
  • Time series data are influenced by the external events such as holiday, strike, oil shock, and political change, so the external events cause a sudden change to the time series data. We regard the observation as outlier that occurred as a result of external events. In general, it is called intervention if we know the period and the reason of external events, and it makes an analyst difficult to establish a time series model. Therefore, it is important that we analyze the styles and effects of intervention. In this paper, we considered the linear time series model with invention and compared with nonlinear time series models such as ARCH, GARCH model and also we compared with the combination prediction method that Tong(1990) introduced. In the practical case study, we compared prediction power with RMSE among linear, nonlinear time series model with intervention and combination prediction method.

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A Flashover Prediction Method by the Leakage Current Monitoring in the Contaminated Polymer Insulator (누설 전류 모니터링에 의한 오손된 고분자 애자에서의 섬락 예지 방법)

  • 박재준;송영철
    • The Transactions of the Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers C
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    • v.53 no.7
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    • pp.364-369
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    • 2004
  • In this Paper, a flashover prediction method using the leakage current in the contaminated EPDM distribution polymer insulator is proposed. The leakage currents on the insulator were measured simultaneously with the different salt fog application such as 25g, 50g, and 75g per liter of deionized water. Then, the measured leakage currents were enveloped and transformed as the CDFS using the Hilbert transform and the level crossing rate, respectively. The obtained CDFS having different gradients(angles) were used as a important factor for the flashover prediction of the contaminated polymer insulator. Thus, the average angle change with an identical salt fog concentration was within a range of 20 degrees, and the average angle change among the different salt fog concentrations was 5 degrees. However, it is hard to be distinguished each other because the gradient differences among the CDFS were very small. So, the new weighting value was defined and used to solve this problem. Through simulation, it Is verified that the proposed method has the capability of the flashover prediction.

Environment variability predictive analysis of Myeongri Study and Yookhyo Study in Oriental studies (동양학에서 명리학과 육효학의 환경변화도 예측 분석연구)

  • Lee, Ock Hwa;Cho, Sung-Je
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.14 no.6
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    • pp.2653-2659
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    • 2013
  • Most of the previous environment change predictive studies had applied Oriental studies. Only Myeongri study were especially applied in studying environment change prediction. When these two studies are applied separately in analysis, accurate predictive analysis is insufficient. Therefore the purpose of this study is to study the accurateness of environment change prediction by applying Myeongri study and Yookhyo study. Research methods, August to December 2012 were surveyed workers. In the analyzed result, environment change prediction is more accurate when the two studies are done together compared to separating them. The mean and standard deviation of relation according to the general characteristics of respondents were high. Good results followed as the mean was higher by similar difference in each part of environment variability. Therefore the efficiency of prediction for environment variability seems to have increased.

Newly Developed Settlement Prediction Method on Soft Soils with Subsequent Surcharge Change (성토고 변화를 고려한 새로운 연약 지반 침하 예측 기법)

  • Chun, Sung-Ho;Kim, Han-Saem;Yune, Chan-Young;Chung, Choong-Ki
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.31 no.5C
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    • pp.155-162
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    • 2011
  • Settlement prediction based on field monitored data, which is used to control subsequent surcharges, is very important in construction management for soft ground improvement with the preloading method. Observational settlement prediction methods, which are suggested for an instantaneous loading, have been widely used in fields. However, they have difficulties in the settlement prediction with subsequent surcharge change. In this paper, a simple method to predict the settlement with subsequent surcharge change is suggested. The suggested method adopts assumptions to simplify the complex field condition and utilizes observational methods. The suggested method is applied to a large consolidation test result, FDM analysis results, and field monitored settlement data to confirm its practicability. From the applications, the suggested method produces reasonable prediction results with various subsequent surcharge changes.

Development of Prediction Techniques of Water Pollution Sources for the Management of Total Maximum Daily Load - Population Prediction of Pollution Sources from Human Living - (수질오염총량관리를 위한 오염원 예측기법 개발 - 생활계 오염원 인구 예측 -)

  • Park, Jundae;Park, Juhyun;Lee, Suwoong;Jeong, Donghwan;Rhew, Doughee
    • Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.561-567
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    • 2007
  • It is necessary to predict future water pollution sources in the establishment of Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) plan for watershed management. There are some difficulties and limits in estimating the pollution sources accurately since the prediction method is not firmly established. This study reviewed the existing methods of prediction and developed a technique characteristics. The characteristics were obtained by analyzing the change pattern of pollution sources by region and incorporated in the technique. A distinctive feature of the technique is to eliminate the influences of land use change included in the pollution source data of a region. The technique has been applied and tested. The test result showed the improvement on the prediction accuracy. A computer program was also developed for the easy application of the technique.

A Study of the Probability of Prediction to Crime according to Time Status Change (시간 상태 변화를 적용한 범죄 발생 예측에 관한 연구)

  • Park, Koo-Rack
    • Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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    • v.18 no.5
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    • pp.147-156
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    • 2013
  • Each field of modern society, industrialization and the development of science and technology are rapidly changing. However, as a side effect of rapid social change has caused various problems. Crime of the side effects of rapid social change is a big problem. In this paper, a model for predicting crime and Markov chains applied to the crime, predictive modeling is proposed. Markov chain modeling of the existing one with the overall status of the case determined the probability of predicting the future, but this paper predict the events to increase the probability of occurrence probability of the prediction and the recent state of the entire state was divided by the probability of the prediction. And the whole state and the probability of the prediction and the recent state by applying the average of the prediction probability and the probability of the prediction model were implemented. Data was applied to the incidence of crime. As a result, the entire state applies only when the probability of the prediction than the entire state and the last state is calculated by dividing the probability value. And that means when applied to predict the probability, close to the crime was concluded that prediction.

A Pragmatic Framework for Predicting Change Prone Files Using Machine Learning Techniques with Java-based Software

  • Loveleen Kaur;Ashutosh Mishra
    • Asia pacific journal of information systems
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    • v.30 no.3
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    • pp.457-496
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    • 2020
  • This study aims to extensively analyze the performance of various Machine Learning (ML) techniques for predicting version to version change-proneness of source code Java files. 17 object-oriented metrics have been utilized in this work for predicting change-prone files using 31 ML techniques and the framework proposed has been implemented on various consecutive releases of two Java-based software projects available as plug-ins. 10-fold and inter-release validation methods have been employed to validate the models and statistical tests provide supplementary information regarding the reliability and significance of the results. The results of experiments conducted in this article indicate that the ML techniques perform differently under the different validation settings. The results also confirm the proficiency of the selected ML techniques in lieu of developing change-proneness prediction models which could aid the software engineers in the initial stages of software development for classifying change-prone Java files of a software, in turn aiding in the trend estimation of change-proneness over future versions.