• Title/Summary/Keyword: predict intervals

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Vapor Pressure and Miscibility for R474A/POE Oil Mixtures (R-404A/POE 오일 혼합물의 증기압과 혼화성)

  • 이정훈;박영무
    • Korean Journal of Air-Conditioning and Refrigeration Engineering
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    • v.14 no.4
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    • pp.285-292
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    • 2002
  • The vapor pressure and miscibility measurement apparatus was developed and used to obtain data for refrigerant/oil mixture. The vapor pressure and miscibility data for R-404A/32 ISO VG polyol ester (POE) oil mixture and R-404A/46 ISO VG polyol ester oil mixture are obtained over the temperature range from -20 to $60^{\circ}$ with at $10^{\circ}$ intervals and the oil concentration range from 0 to 70 wt%. Using the experimental data, an empirical model was developed to predict the temperature vapor pressure-concentration relations for R-404A/46 ISO VG polyol ester oil mixtures at equilibrium. In the R-404A/32 ISO VG polyol ester oil mixture, the average root-mean-square deviation between measured data and calculated results from the empirical model is 1.24% and in the R-404A/46 ISO VG polyol ester oil mixture, that is 1.37%. Miscibility for R-404A/32 ISO VG polyol ester oil mixture was observed all over the experimental conditions. Immiscibility for R-404A/So1est 46 oil mixture was observed at the low oil concentrations (20~30 wt%) over the high experimental temperature range (50~$60^{\circ}$).

Statistical Reliability Analysis of Numerical Simulation for Prediction of Model-Ship Resistance (선체 저항에 대한 수치 해석의 통계적 신뢰도 분석)

  • Lee, Sang Bong;Lee, Youn Mo
    • Journal of the Society of Naval Architects of Korea
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    • v.51 no.4
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    • pp.321-327
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    • 2014
  • A wide scope of numerical simulations was performed to predict model-ship resistances by using STAR-CCM+ and OpenFOAM. The numerical results were compared with experimental measurements in towing tank to analyze statistical reliability of the present simulations. Based on the normal distribution of resistance errors in 113 cases of container carriers, tankers and very large crude-oil carriers, the confidence intervals of numerical error were estimated as [-2.64%,+2.32%] and [-1.82%, +1.87%] with 95% confidence in STAR-CCM+ and OpenFOAM, respectively. The resistance errors of liquefied natural gas carriers with single- and twin-skeg were confident in the ranges of [-2.51%,+2.64%] and [-2.29%, +1.46%], respectively. The grid uncertainty of resistance coefficients for KCS was also quantitatively analyzed by using a grid verification procedure. The grid uncertainty of OpenFOAM (5.1%) was larger than 4.4% uncertainty of STAR-CCM+ although OpenFOAM provided statistically more confident results than those of STAR-CCM+. It means that a grid system verified under a specific condition does not automatically lead to statistical reliability in general cases.

A proposal of neuron computer for tracking motion of objects

  • Zhu, Hanxi;Aoyama, Tomoo;Yoshihara, Ikuo
    • 제어로봇시스템학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 2000.10a
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    • pp.496-496
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    • 2000
  • We propose a neuron computer for tracking motion of particles in multi-dimensional space. The neuron computer is constructed of neural networks and their connections, which is a simplified model of the brain. The neuron computer is assemblage of neural networks, it includes a control unit, and the actions of the unit are represented by instructions. We designed a neuron computer to recognize and predict motion of particles. The recognition unit is constructed of neuron-array, encoder, and control part. The neuron-array is a model of the retina, and particles crease an image on the array, where the image is binary. The encoder picks one particle from the array, and translates the particle's location to Cartesian coordinates, which is scaled in [0, 1] intervals. Next, the encoder picks another particle, and does same process. The ordering and reduction of complex processes are executed by instructions. The instructions are held in the control part. The prediction unit is constructed of a multi-layer neural network and a feedback loop, where real time learning is executed. The particles' future locations are forecasted by coordinate values. The neuron computer can chase maximum 100 particles that take evasions.

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High temperature deformation behaviors of AZ31 Mg alloy by Artificial Neural Network (인공 신경망을 이용한 AZ31 Mg 합금의 고온 변형 거동연구)

  • Lee B. H.;Reddy N. S.;Lee C. S.
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society for Technology of Plasticity Conference
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    • 2005.10a
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    • pp.231-234
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    • 2005
  • The high temperature deformation behavior of AZ 31 Mg alloy was investigated by designing a back propagation neural network that uses a gradient descent-learning algorithm. A neural network modeling is an intelligent technique that can solve non-linear and complex problems by learning from the samples. Therefore, some experimental data have been firstly obtained from continuous compression tests performed on a thermo-mechanical simulator over a range of temperatures $(250-500^{\circ}C)$ with strain rates of $0.0001-100s^{-1}$ and true strains of 0.1 to 0.6. The inputs for neural network model are strain, strain rate, and temperature and the output is flow stress. It was found that the trained model could well predict the flow stress for some experimental data that have not been used in the training. Workability of a material can be evaluated by means of power dissipation map with respect to strain, strain rate and temperature. Power dissipation map was constructed using the flow stress predicted from the neural network model at finer Intervals of strain, strain rates and subsequently processing maps were developed for hot working processes for AZ 31 Mg alloy. The safe domains of hot working of AZ 31 Mg alloy were identified and validated through microstructural investigations.

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Development of the Prediction Method for Hospital Bankruptcy using a Hierarchical Generalized Linear Model(HGIM) (HGLM을 적용한 병원 도산 예측방법의 개발)

  • Noh, Maeng-Seok;Chang, Hye-Jung;Lee, Young-Jo
    • Korea Journal of Hospital Management
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    • v.6 no.2
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    • pp.22-36
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    • 2001
  • The hospital bankruptcy rate is increasing, therefore it is very important to predict the bankruptcy using the existing hospital management information. The hospital bankruptcy is often measured in year intervals, called grouped duration data, not by the continuous time elapsed to the bankruptcy. This study introduces a hierarchical generalized linear model(HGLM) for analysis of hospital bankruptcy data. The hazard function for each hospital may be influenced by unobservable latent variables, and these unknown variables are usually termed as random effects or frailties which explain correlations among repeated measures of the same hospital and describe individual heterogeneities of hospitals. Practically, the data of twenty bankrupt and sixty profitable hospitals were collected for five years, and were fitted to HGLM. The results were compared with those of the logit model. While the logit model resulted only in the effects of explanatory variables on the bankruptcy status at specific period, the HGLM showed variables with significant effects over all observed years. It is concluded that the HGLM with a fixed ratio and a period of total asset turnrounds was justified, and could find significant within and between hospital variations.

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Simulations of PEC columns with equivalent steel section under gravity loading

  • Begum, Mahbuba;Ghosh, Debaroti
    • Steel and Composite Structures
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    • v.16 no.3
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    • pp.305-323
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    • 2014
  • This paper presents numerical simulations of partially encased composite columns (PEC) with equivalent steel sections. The composite section of PEC column consists of thin walled welded H- shaped steel section with transverse links provided at regular intervals between the flanges. Concrete is poured in the space between the flanges and the web plate. Most of the structural analysis and design software do not handle such composite members due to highly nonlinear material behavior of concrete as well as due to the complex interfacial behaviour of steel and concrete. In this paper an attempt has been made to replace the steel concrete composite section by an equivalent steel section which can be easily incorporated in the design and analysis software. The methodology used for the formulation of the equivalent steel section is described briefly in the paper. Finite element analysis is conducted using the equivalent steel section of partially encased composite columns tested under concentric gravity loading. The reference test columns are obtained from the literature, encompassing a variety of geometric and material properties. The finite element simulations of the composite columns with equivalent steel sections are found to predict the experimental behaviour of partially encased composite columns with very good accuracy.

A Case Report of chronic urticaria with cerebral hemorrhage (腦出血을 동반한 慢性 두드러기 患者의 治驗 1例)

  • Kim, Chang-Hwan;Sun, Young-Jae;Kim, Hyun-Gi
    • The Journal of Korean Medicine Ophthalmology and Otolaryngology and Dermatology
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    • v.15 no.1
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    • pp.285-290
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    • 2002
  • Urticaria is classified as Eunjin in Oriental Medicine. The intrinsic causes include digestive system disorder, food poison, parasite, female reproductive health problem, nervous breakdown, and disorder of endocrine hormone. The extrinsic sources include all kinds of insect bites or stings, medications, pollen, dirt, and toxic smells. Some unknown sources also produce urticaria. The urticaria that lasts for more than six weeks, is categorized as chronic urticaria which is not very different from acute urticaria that occurs rapid but for a short period. The chronic urticaria may come every day, and its symptoms can even get worse at irregular or regular intervals. The cycle is hard to predict. It could be weeks or years. In clinical treatments, the syndromes of patient's chronic urticaria with cerebral hemorrhage have been analyzed and identified as follows: The diagnosis by asking the patient's case history showed that the root cause was retention of food resulting from dysfunction of the spleen and stomach. First, Pyeongwisan was dosed. From the syndrome differentiation with four diagnostic methods, we diagnosed the symptoms as Poong yoel (wind-heat). Then, Hyeongbangpaedocksangamibang was prescribed to get very effective results.

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Site - Specific Frost Warning Based on Topoclimatic Estimation of Daily Minimum Temperature (지형기후모형에 근거한 서리경보시스템 구축)

  • Chung Uran;Seo Hee Cheol;Yun Jin I.
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.6 no.3
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    • pp.164-169
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    • 2004
  • A spatial interpolation scheme incorporating local geographic potential for cold air accumulation (TOPSIM) was used to test the feasibility of operational frost warning in Chatancheon basin in Yeoncheon County, where the introduction of new crops including temperate zone fruits is planned. Air temperature from April to June 2003 was measured at one-minute intervals at four locations within the basin. Cold-air accumulation potentials (CAP) at 4 sites were calculated for 3 different catchment scales: a rectangular area of 65 x 55 km which covers the whole county, the KOWACO (Korea Water Corporation) hydrologic unit which includes all 4 sites, and the sub-basins delineated by a stream network analysis of the digital elevation model. Daily minimum temperatures at 4 sites were calculated by interpolating the perfect prognosis (i.e., synoptic observations at KMA Dongducheon station) based on TOPSIM with 3 different CAPs. Mean error, mean absolute error, and root mean square error were calculated for 45 days with no precipitation to test the model performance. For the 3 flat locations, little difference was detected in model performance among 3 catchment areas, but the best performance was found with the CAPs calculated for sub-basins at one site (Oksan) on complex terrain. When TOPSIM loaded with sub-basin CAPs was applied to Oksan to predict frost events during the fruit flowering period in 2004, the goodness of fit was sufficient for making an operational frost warning system for mountainous areas.

Measurement of solubility and miscibility of R-410A/POE oil mixture (R-410A/POE 오일 혼합물의 용해도 및 상용성 측정)

  • 송준석;김창년;박영무
    • Korean Journal of Air-Conditioning and Refrigeration Engineering
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    • v.12 no.2
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    • pp.209-217
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    • 2000
  • The solubility and miscibility measurement apparatus was developed and used to obtain data for refrigerant/oil mixture. The solubility and miscibility data for R-410A/68 ISO VG polyol ester (POE) oil mixture are obtained over the temperature range from -20 to $60^{circ}C\;with\;10^{\circ}C$ intervals and the oil concentration range from 0 to 90 wt%. Using the experimental data, an empirical model was developed to predict the solubility relations for R-410A/POE oil mixture at equilibrium. In the R-410A/Solest 68 oil mixture, the average root-mean-square deviation between measured data and calculated results from the empirical model is 3.4% and in the R-4104/EMKARATE RL 68H oil mixture, that is 2.86%. For R-410A/68 ISO VG POE oil mixture immiscibility was usually observed at the low oil concentrations(5~30 wt%) over the all experimental temperature range($-20~60^{circ}C$) and at the high oil concentrations(50~90 wt%) over the low experimental temperature range($-2O~0^{circ}C$).

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Prognostic Factors of Hemifacial Spasm after Microvascular Decompression

  • Kim, Hong-Rae;Rhee, Deok-Joo;Kong, Doo-Sik;Park, Kwan
    • Journal of Korean Neurosurgical Society
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    • v.45 no.6
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    • pp.336-340
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    • 2009
  • Objective : The factors that influence the prognosis of patients with hemifacial spasm (HFS) treated by microvascular decompression (MVD) have not been definitely established. We report a prospective study evaluating the prognostic factors in patients undergoing MVD for HFS. Methods : From January 2004 to September 2006, the authors prospectively studied a series of 293 patients who underwent MVD for HFS. We prospectively analyzed a number of variables in order to evaluate the predictive value of independent variables for the prognosis of patients undergoing MVD. The patients were followed-up at regular intervals and divided into as cured and unsatisfactory groups based on symptom relief. Uni- and multivariate analyses were performed using logistic regression models. Results : A total 273 of 293 (94.2%) patients achieved symptom relief within one year after the operation. Intraoperatively, the indentation of the root exit zone was observed in 259 (88.5%) patients. Uni- and multivariate analyses revealed that the symptoms at postoperative 3 months (p<0.001) and indentation of the root exit zone (p=0.036) were associated with good outcomes. Conclusion : The intraoperative finding of root exit zone indentation will help physicians determine the prognosis in patients with HFS. To predict the prognosis of HFS, a regular follow-up period of at least 3 months following MVD should be required.