• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.29 no.1
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• pp.243-255
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• 2016

The developed composite index has limits to estimate and predict economic status due to economic pattern change and the response change of explanatory variables. A higher precedence individual indicators should be selected to predict the future accurately. In this study, effectiveness of Jeju Island precedence indicators consists of constituents in the area, the consumer price index, services production index, mining and manufacturing production index. The average temperature of Seogwipo and credit card purchase amount is reviewed as an economic turning point consideration and time lag correlation analysis with real data. In addition, we suggest the proper reference cycle in Jeju composite precedence index and evaluate the configuration in leading indicators for Jeju by comparing national economic indicators. Based on the derived results, the current problems of Jeju Island precedence indicators will be illustrated and the improvement methods to estimate a regional composite index will be suggested.

• Journal of Digital Convergence
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• v.12 no.5
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• pp.89-99
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• 2014

Correlation of KOSPI from stock market and Apartment Prices in Seoul HPPCI from real estate market has been found from this research. Furthermore, from the comparison of those indicators' flows, certain precedence was found as well. The purpose of this research is to analyze correlation and precedence among KOSPI, Apartment price in Seoul, HPPCI and CLI. As for predicting KOSPI of stock market and real estate market, it is necessary to find out preceding indices and analyzing their progresses first. For 27 years from the January 1987 to December 2013, KOSPI has been grown by 687%, while CLI showed 443%, Apartment of Seoul showed 391%, HPPCI showed 263% of growth rate in order. As the result of correlation analysis among Apartment of Seoul, CLI, KOSPI and HPPCI, KOSPI and HPPCI showed high correlation coefficient of 0.877, and Apartment of Seoul and CLI showed that of 0.956 which is even higher. Result from the analysis, CLI shows high correlation with stock and real estate market, it is a good option to watch how CLI flows to predict stock and real estate market.