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Bias Correction for GCM Long-term Prediction using Nonstationary Quantile Mapping (비정상성 분위사상법을 이용한 GCM 장기예측 편차보정)

  • Moon, Soojin;Kim, Jungjoong;Kang, Boosik
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.46 no.8
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    • pp.833-842
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    • 2013
  • The quantile mapping is utilized to reproduce reliable GCM(Global Climate Model) data by correct systematic biases included in the original data set. This scheme, in general, projects the Cumulative Distribution Function (CDF) of the underlying data set into the target CDF assuming that parameters of target distribution function is stationary. Therefore, the application of stationary quantile mapping for nonstationary long-term time series data of future precipitation scenario computed by GCM can show biased projection. In this research the Nonstationary Quantile Mapping (NSQM) scheme was suggested for bias correction of nonstationary long-term time series data. The proposed scheme uses the statistical parameters with nonstationary long-term trends. The Gamma distribution was assumed for the object and target probability distribution. As the climate change scenario, the 20C3M(baseline scenario) and SRES A2 scenario (projection scenario) of CGCM3.1/T63 model from CCCma (Canadian Centre for Climate modeling and analysis) were utilized. The precipitation data were collected from 10 rain gauge stations in the Han-river basin. In order to consider seasonal characteristics, the study was performed separately for the flood (June~October) and nonflood (November~May) seasons. The periods for baseline and projection scenario were set as 1973~2000 and 2011~2100, respectively. This study evaluated the performance of NSQM by experimenting various ways of setting parameters of target distribution. The projection scenarios were shown for 3 different periods of FF scenario (Foreseeable Future Scenario, 2011~2040 yr), MF scenario (Mid-term Future Scenario, 2041~2070 yr), LF scenario (Long-term Future Scenario, 2071~2100 yr). The trend test for the annual precipitation projection using NSQM shows 330.1 mm (25.2%), 564.5 mm (43.1%), and 634.3 mm (48.5%) increase for FF, MF, and LF scenarios, respectively. The application of stationary scheme shows overestimated projection for FF scenario and underestimated projection for LF scenario. This problem could be improved by applying nonstationary quantile mapping.

Analysis of Industrial Linkage Effects for Farm Land Base Development Project -With respect to the Hwangrak Benefited Area with Reservoir - (농업생산기반 정비사업의 산업연관효과분석 -황락 저수지지구를 중심으로-)

  • Lim, Jae Hwan;Han, Seok Ho
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural Science
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    • v.26 no.2
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    • pp.77-93
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    • 1999
  • This study is aiming at identifying the foreward and backward lingkage effects of the farm land base development project. Korean Government has continuously carried out farmland base development projets including the integrated agricultural development projects. large and medium scale irrigation projects and the comprehensive development of the four big river basin including tidal land reclamation and estuary dam construction for the all weather farming since 1962. the starting year of the five year economic development plans. Consequently the irrigation rate of paddy fields in Korea reached to 75% in 1998 and to escalate the irrigation rate, the Government had procured heavy investment fund from IBRD. IMF and OECF etc. To cope with the agricultural problems like trade liberalization in accordance with WTO policy, the government has tried to solve such problems as new farmland base development policy, preservation of the farmland and expansion of farmland to meet self-sufficiency of foods in the future. Especially, farmland base development projects have been challanged to environmental and ecological problems in evaluating economic benefits and costs where the value of non-market goods have not been included in those. Up to data, in evaluating benefits and costs of the projects, farmland base development projects have been confined to direct incremental value of farm products and it's related costs. Therefore the projects'efficiency as a decision making criteria has shown the low level of economic efficiencies. In estimating economic efficiencies including Leontiefs input-output analysis of the projects could not be founded in Korea at present. Accordingly this study is aimed at achieving and identifying the following objectives. (1) To identify the problems related to the financial supports of the Government in implementing the proposed projects. (2) To estimated backward and foreward linkage effects of the proposed project from the view point of national economy as a whole. To achieve the objectives, Hwangrak benefited area with reservoir which is located in Seosan-haemi Disticts, Chungnam Province were selected as a case study. The main results of the study are summarized as follows : a. The present value of investment and O & M cost were amounted to 3,510million won and the present value of the value added in related industries was estimated at 5.913million won for the period of economic life of 70 years. b. The total discounted value of farm products in the concerned industries derived by the project was estimated at 10,495million won and the foreward and backward linkage effects of the project were amounted to 6,760 and 5,126million won respectively. c. The total number of employment opportunities derived from the related industries for the period of project life were 3,136 man/year. d. Farmland base development projects were showed that the backward linkage effects estimated by index of the sensitivity dispersion were larger than the forward linkage effect estimated by index of the power of dispersion. On the other hand, the forward linkage effect of rice production value during project life was larger than the backward linkage effect e. The rate of creation of new job opportunity by means of implementing civil engineering works were shown high in itself rather than any other fields. and the linkage effects of production of the project investment were mainly derived from the metal and non-metal fields. f. According to the industrial linkage effect analysis, farmland base development projects were identified economically feasible from the view point of national economy as a whole even though the economic efficiencies of the project was outstandingly decreased owing to delaying construction period and increasing project costs.

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The characteristics of capital city plan of the BianLieng palace, the Dongjing Walled Town (東京城), the Northern song Dynasty (북송 동경 변량성의 조영과 특징)

  • Dashu, Qin
    • Korean Journal of Heritage: History & Science
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    • v.45 no.3
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    • pp.114-159
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    • 2012
  • The Northern Song Dynasty Period (北宋時代) was a drastic transitional era in all aspect of Chinese society including the politico-economic system, ideology and cultural trait. These changes that began in the late Tang (唐) Dynasty Period accomplished in the Northern Song Dynasty. In this phase, the fundamental change influenced in all institutional area; and among them, the capital city planning and its associating building technology to pile stone walls shows one of the significant change of those time. Based on the geographical factor, confluences of many rivers, the Kaifeing (開封) area where the BianLieng palace had developed as a political and economical centre since the Tang Dynasty when the Grand Canal was constructed. According to archaeological researches, the central city structure of Dongjing Walled Town was begun to plan in the late Tang Dynasty and formed in Five Dynasties. The fundamental functional change of city completed in the Midnorthern Song Dynasty. In spite of the relatively late beginning of archaeological investigations to Kaifeng Walled Town and Dongjing Walled Town due to unfavourable natural environment, excavations inaugurated since 1981 have achieved the significant investigations including the actual measurement and excavation to the outer wall, the preliminary excavation to the inner city area, the investigation and excavation to the royal palace of Song and the survey to the royal palace of King Zho in the Ming (明) Dynasty. These surveys have provide important data to reconstruct the 변량 palace, and elucidate the characteristics of city plan in the Dongjing Walled Town and the institutional change of capital city plan of the Northern Song Dynasty. The basic layout of Dongjing Walled Town reflect the realisation of ideality of the late Chinese medieval capital city structure that establish the commercial and economic centre based on the intensification of emperor's power by means of the organisation of ethical institution and the development of commercial economy. Firstly, the central place of the Kaifeng area is encircled with triple walls. This emphasise the authority of emperor located on the summit in the hierarchical ethic system succeeding to the main capital city plan of the late phase of ancient China. Secondly, the location of Dongjing Walled Town was decided by the transport network and the commercial function and defence function. Thirdly, this site shows the change of city structure and landscape of the Northern Song Dynasty. The closed Fengri (坊里: block) system transferred the open Jiexiang (街巷: road) system. Fourthly, the capital city was characterised by the free market trade and the diversification of market place. Fifthly, a convenient transport network in the Bian River, a centre of the Grand Canals, enabled to construct the Kaifeng Walled Town. Therefore, the Northern Song Dynasty continuously accomplished the developed water system as concerning about the utilisation of waterways after the construction of city.

Development of Wooden Coffin(木棺) and Chamber(木槨) Tombs in Gyeongju(慶州) and Sarokuk(斯盧國) (경주지역 목관·목곽묘의 전개와 사로국)

  • Lee, Ju Heun
    • Korean Journal of Heritage: History & Science
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    • v.42 no.3
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    • pp.106-130
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    • 2009
  • The aim of this paper is analysis of structure and development pattern about wooden coffin and chamber tombs in Gyeongju from the 2nd century B.C. to the 3rd century A.D. for researching to socio-political tendency and growth process of Sarokuk. Tombs buried with iron objects were built in Youngnam(嶺南) from the 2nd century B.C. with spread wooden coffin with stone mound(積石木棺墓). Also medium or small sized wooden coffin tombs buried with bronze mirror of western Han(前漢) and soft stoneware(瓦質土器) were appeared the 2nd century B.C. in Gyeongju, because of establishment of Han's commanderies(漢郡縣) in the Korean Peninsula and refuge from Daedong river(大同江) to Jinhan(辰韓). Separate tombs(獨立墓) with lots of bronze object ware assumed high ranked tombs of parsonage(司祭王) or local chief(地域首長). From the 2nd century A.D. the size of wooden coffin tombs became enlarged and funerary objects ware abundant, for example Sarari 130th tomb(舍羅里 130號). The burying pattern of this tomb is similar to wooden chamber tombs in Lelang(樂浪), which had prestige goods like lacquer ware and bronze mirror in wood box(木匣) beside coffin. Appearance of these wooden chamber tombs that were different from original wooden coffin tombs imply interaction between Lelang and these area with iron. Sarari community that held right of trade and distribution to outside through the geographical advantage grew up centered position in Gyeongju politically, socially, and culturally. Chamber in tomb as a new structural notion that can secure funerary objects became firmly was established from the 2nd century A.D. in Gyeongju and large sized wooden chamber tombs were generally built early of the 3rd century A.D. This tendency was reflected in stratification of community and growth as center of local state. After late of the 3rd century A.D. Gyeongju type wooden chamber tomb(慶州式木槨墓) which had subordinate outer coffin(副槨) was appeared and then subordinate outer coffin was as bigger as main chamber(主槨) the 4th century A.D., because of centralization and stratification in society and unification of various communities among the Gyeongju area.

Estimating the water supply capacity of Hwacheon reservoir for multi-purpose utilization (다목적 활용을 위한 화천댐 용수공급능력 평가 연구)

  • Lee, Eunkyung;Lee, Seonmi;Ji, Jungwon;Yi, Jaeeung;Jung, Soonchan
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.55 no.6
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    • pp.437-446
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    • 2022
  • In April 2020, the Korean government decided to operate the Hwacheon reservoir, a hydropower reservoir to supply water, and it is currently under pilot operation. Through the pilot operation, the Hwacheon reservoir is the first among the hydropower reservoirs in Korea to make a constant release for downstream water supply. In this study, the water supply capacity of the Hwacheon reservoir was estimated using the inflow data of the Hwacheon reservoir. A simulation model was developed to calculate the water supply that satisfies both the monthly water supply reliability of 95% and the annual water supply reliability of 95%. An optimization model was also developed to evaluate the water supply capacity of the Hwacheon reservoir. The inflow data used as input data for the model was modified in two ways in consideration of the impact of the Imnam reservoir. Calculating the water supply for the Hwacheon reservoir using the two modified inflows is as follows. The water supply that satisfies 95% of the monthly water supply reliability is 26.9 m3/sec and 24.1 m3/sec. And the water supply that satisfies 95% of the annual water supply reliability is 23.9 m3/sec and 22.2 m3/sec. Hwacheon reservoir has a maximum annual water supply of 777 MCM (Million Cubic Meter) without failure in the water supply. The Hwacheon reservoir can supply 704 MCM of water per year, considering the past monthly power generation and discharge patterns. If the Hwacheon reservoir performs a routine operation utilizing its water supply capacity, it can contribute to stabilizing the water supply during dry seasons in the Han River Basin.

Collision of New and Old Control Ideologies, Witnessed through the Moving of Jeong-regun (Tomb of Queen Sindeok) and Repair of Gwangtong-gyo (정릉(貞陵) 이장과 광통교(廣通橋) 개수를 통해 본 조선 초기 지배 이데올로기의 대립)

  • Nam, Hohyun
    • Korean Journal of Heritage: History & Science
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    • v.53 no.4
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    • pp.234-249
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    • 2020
  • The dispute involving the construction of the Tomb of Queen Sindeok (hereinafter "Jeongreung"), King Taejo's wife in Seoul, and the moving of that tomb, represents the most clearly demonstrated case for the collision of new and old ideologies between political powers in the early period of Joseon. Jeongreung, the tomb of Queen Sindeok from the Kang Clan, was built inside the capital fortress, but in 1409, King Taejong forced the tomb to be moved outside the capital, and the stone relics remaining at the original location were used to build the stone bridge, Gwangtong-gyo. In an unofficial story, King Taejong moved the tomb outside the capital and used the stone items there to make the Cheonggyecheon Gwang-gyo so that the people would step upon the area in order to curse Lady Kang. In the final year of King Taejo, Lady Kang and King Taejong were in a politically conflictual relationship, but they were close to being political partners until King Taejo became the king. Sillok records pertaining to the establishment of Jeongreung or Gwangtong-gyo in fact state things more plainly, indicating that the moving of Jeongreung was a result of following the sangeon (a written statement to the king) of Uijeongbu (the highest administrative agency in Joseon), which stated that having the tomb of a king or queen in the capital was inappropriate, and since it was close to the official quarter of envoys, it had to be moved. The assertion that it was aimed at degrading Jeongreung in order to repair Gwangtong-gyo thus does not reflect the factual relationship. This article presents the possibility that the use of stone items from Jeongreung to repair Gwangtong-gyo reflected an emerging need for efficient material procurement that accompanied a drastic increase in demand for materials required in civil works both in- and outside the capital. The cause for constructing Jeongreung within the capital and the cause of moving the tomb outside the capital would therefore be attributable to the heterogeneity of the ideological backgrounds of King Taejo and King Taejong. King Taejo was the ruler of the Confucius state, as he reigned through the Yeokseong Revolution, but he constructed the tomb and Hongcheon-sa, the temple in the capital for his wife Queen Sindeok. In this respect, it is considered that, with the power of Buddhism, there was an attempt to rally supporters and gather the force needed to establish the authority of Queen Sindeok. Yi Seong-gye, who was raised in the Dorugachi clan of Yuan, lived as a military man in the border area, and so he would not have had a high level of understanding in Confucian scholarship. Rather, he was a man of the old system with its 'Buddhist" tendency. On the other hand, King Taejong Yi Bang-won was an elite Confucian student who passed the national examination at the end of the Goryeo era, and he is also known to have held a profound understanding of Neo-Confucianism. To state it differently, it would be reasonable to say that the understanding of symbolic implications for the capital would be more profound in a Confucian state. Since the national system that was ruled by laws had been established following the Three-Kingdom era, the principle of burial outside of the capital that would have seen a grave constructed on the outskirts of the capital was not upheld, without exception. Jeongreung was built inside the capital due to the strong individual desire of King Taejo, but since he was a Confucian scholar prior to becoming king, it would not have been accepted as desirable. After taking the throne, King Taejong took the initiative to begin overhauling the capital in order to reflect his intent to clearly realize Confucian ideology emphasizing 'Yechi' ("ruling with good manners") with the scenic view of the Capital's Hanyang river. It would be reasonable to conclude accordingly that the moving of Jeongreung was undertaken in the context of such a historic background.

Territorial Expansion the King Võ (Võ Vương, 1738-1765) in the Mekong Delta: Variation of Tám Thực Chi Kế (strategy of silkworm nibbling) and Dĩ Man Công Man (to strike barbarians by barbarians) in the Way to Build a New World Order (무왕(武王, 1738-1765) 시기 메콩 델타에서의 영토 확장 추이: 제국으로 가는 길, '잠식지계(蠶食之計)'와 '이만공만(以蠻攻蠻)'의 변주)

  • CHOI, Byung Wook
    • The Southeast Asian review
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    • v.27 no.2
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    • pp.37-76
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    • 2017
  • $Nguy{\tilde{\hat{e}}}n$ Cư Trinh has two faces in the history of territorial expansion of Vietnam into the Mekong delta. One is his heroic contribution to the $Nguy{\tilde{\hat{e}}}n$ family gaining control over the large part of the Mekong delta. The other is his role to make the eyes of readers of Vietnamese history be fixed only to the present territory of Vietnam. To the readers, $Nguy{\tilde{\hat{e}}}n$ Cư Trinh's achievement of territorial expansion was the final stage of the nam $ti{\acute{\hat{e}}n$ of Vietnam. In fact, however, his achievement was partial. This study pays attention to the King $V{\tilde{o}}$ instead of $Nguy{\tilde{\hat{e}}}n$ Cư Trinh in the history of the territorial expansion in the Mekong delta. King's goal was more ambitious. And the ambition was propelled by his dream to build a new world, and its order, in which his new capital, $Ph{\acute{u}}$ $Xu{\hat{a}}n$ was to be the center with his status as an emperor. To improve my assertion, three elements were examined in this article. First is the nature of $V{\tilde{o}}$ Vương's new kingship. Second is the preparation and the background of the military operation in the Mekong Delta. The nature of the new territory is the third element of the discussion. In 1744, six years after this ascending to the throne, $V{\tilde{o}}$ Vương declared he was a king. Author points out this event as the departure of the southern kingdom from the traditional dynasties based on the Red River delta. Besides, the government system, northern custom and way of dressings were abandoned and new southern modes were adopted. $V{\tilde{o}}$ Vương had enough tributary kingdoms such as Cambodia, Champa, Thủy $X{\tilde{a}}$, Hoả $X{\tilde{a}}$, Vạn Tượng, and Nam Chưởng. Compared with the $L{\hat{e}}$ empire, the number of the tributary kingdoms was higher and the number was equivalent to that of the Đại Nam empire of the 19th century. In reality, author claims, the King $V{\tilde{o}}^{\prime}s$ real intention was to become an emperor. Though he failed in using the title of emperor, he distinguished himself by claiming himself as the Heaven King, $Thi{\hat{e}}n$ Vương. Cambodian king's attack on the thousands of Cham ethnics in Cambodian territory was an enough reason to the King $V{\tilde{o}}^{\prime}s$ military intervention. He considered these Cham men and women as his amicable subjects, and he saw them a branch of the Cham communities in his realm. He declared war against Cambodia in 1750. At the same time he sent a lengthy letter to the Siamese king claiming that the Cambodia was his exclusive tributary kingdom. Before he launched a fatal strike on the Mekong delta which had been the southern part of Cambodia, $V{\tilde{o}}$ Vương renovated his capital $Ph{\acute{u}}$ $Xu{\hat{a}}n$ to the level of the new center of power equivalent to that of empire for his sake. Inflation, famine, economic distortion were also the features of this time. But this study pays attention more to the active policy of the King $V{\tilde{o}}$ as an empire builder than to the economic situation that has been told as the main reason for King $V{\tilde{o}}^{\prime}s$ annexation of the large part of the Mekong delta. From the year of 1754, by the initiative of $Nguy{\tilde{\hat{e}}}n$ Cư Trinh, almost whole region of the Mekong delta within the current border line was incorporated into the territory of $V{\tilde{o}}$ Vương within three years, though the intention of the king was to extend his land to the right side of the Mekong Basin beyond the current border such as Kampong Cham, Prey Vieng, and Svai Rieng. The main reason was $V{\tilde{o}}$ Vương's need to expand his territory to be matched with that of his potential empire with the large number of the tributary kingdoms. King $V{\tilde{o}}^{\prime}s$ strategy was the variation of 'silkworm nibbling' and 'to strike barbarians by barbarians.' He ate the land of Lower Cambodia, the region of the Mekong delta step by step as silkworm nibbles mulberry leave(general meaning of $t{\acute{a}}m$ thực), but his final goal was to eat all(another meaning of $t{\acute{a}}m$ thực) the part of the Mekong delta including the three provinces of Cambodia mentioned above. He used Cham to strike Cambodian in the process of getting land from Long An area to $Ch{\hat{a}}u$ Đốc. This is a faithful application of the Dĩ Man $C{\hat{o}}ng$ Man (to strike barbarians by barbarians). In addition he used Chinese refugees led by the Mạc family or their quasi kingdom to gain land in the region of $H{\grave{a}}$ $Ti{\hat{e}}n$ and its environs from the hand of Cambodian king. This is another application of Dĩ Man $C{\hat{o}}ng$ Man. In sum, author claims a new way of looking at the origin of the imperial world order which emerged during the first half of the 19th century. It was not the result of the long history of Đại Việt empires based on the Red River delta, but the succession of the King $V{\tilde{o}}^{\prime}s$ new world based on $Ph{\acute{u}}$ $Xu{\hat{a}}n$. The same ways of Dĩ Man $C{\hat{o}}ng$ Man and $T{\acute{a}}m$ Thực Chi $K{\acute{\hat{e}}}$ were still used by $V{\tilde{o}}^{\prime}s$ descendents. His grandson Gia Long used man such as Thai, Khmer, Lao, Chinese, and European to win another man the '$T{\hat{a}}y$ Sơn bandits' that included many of Chinese pirates, Cham, and other mountain peoples. His great grand son Minh Mạng constructed a splendid empire. At the same time, however, Minh Mạng kept expanding the size of his empire by eating all the part of Cambodia and Cham territories.