• Korea Real Estate Review
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• v.28 no.3
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• pp.21-35
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• 2018

The recent performance of residential mortgages demonstrated how default risk operated separately from prepayment risk. In this study, we investigated the determinants of the borrowers' decisions pertaining to early termination through default from the mortgage performance data released by Freddie Mac, involving securitized mortgage loans from January 2011 to September 2013. We estimated a Cox-type, proportional hazard model with a single risk on fundamental factors associated with default options for individual mortgages. We proposed a mortgage default model that included two specifications of delinquency: one using a delinquency binary variable, while the other using a delinquency probability. We also compared the results obtained from two specifications with respect to goodness-of-fit proposed in the spirit of Vuong (1989) in both overlapping and nested models' cases. We found that a model with our proposed delinquency probability variable showed a statistically significant advantage compared to a benchmark model with delinquency dummy variables. We performed a default prediction power test based on the method proposed in Shumway (2001), and found a much stronger performance from the proposed model.

• Tribology and Lubricants
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• v.35 no.4
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• pp.222-228
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• 2019

As rubber products such as O-rings, which are also known as packings or toric joints, come in regular, long term contact with liquid fuel, they can eventually swell, become mechanically weakened, and occasionally crack; this diminishes both their usefulness and intrinsic lifetime and could cause leaks during the steady-state flow condition of the fuel. In this study, we evaluate the lifetime of such products through compression set tests of FKM, a family of fluorocarbon elastomer materials defined by the ASTM international standard D141; these materials have great compression, sunlight, and ozone resistance as well as a low gas absorption rate. In this process, O-rings are immersed in the liquid fuel of airtight containers that can be expressed as a compression set, and the liquid fuel leakage in a flow rig tester at variable temperatures over 12 months is investigated. Using the Power Law model, our study determined a theoretical O-ring lifetime of 2,647 years, i.e. a semi-permanent lifespan, by confirming the absence of liquid fuel leakage around the O-ring assembled fittings. These results indicate that the FKM O-rings are significantly compatible for fuel tests to evaluate long-term sealing conditions.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.51 no.4
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• pp.987-995
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• 2019

Steam jet condensation is of great importance to pressure suppression containment and automatic depressurization system in nuclear power plant. In this paper, the condensation processes of sonic steam jet in a quiescent subcooled pool are recorded and analyzed, more precise understanding are got in direct contact condensation. Experiments are conducted at atmospheric pressure, and the steam is injected into the subcooled water pool through a vertical nozzle with the inner diameter of 10 mm, water temperature in the range of $25-60^{\circ}C$ and mass velocity in the range of $320-1080kg/m^2s$. Richardson number is calculated based on the conservation of momentum for single water jet and its values are in the range of 0.16-2.67. There is no thermal stratification observed in the water pool. Four condensation regimes are observed, including condensation oscillation, contraction, expansion-contraction and double expansion-contraction shapes. A condensation regime map is present based on steam mass velocity and water temperature. The dimensionless steam plume length increase with the increase of steam mass velocity and water temperature, and its values are in the range of 1.4-9.0. Condensation heat transfer coefficient decreases with the increase of steam mass velocity and water temperature, and its values are in the range of $1.44-3.65MW/m^2^{\circ}C$. New more accurate semi-empirical correlations for prediction of the dimensionless steam plume length and condensation heat transfer coefficient are proposed respectively. The discrepancy of predicted plume length is within ${\pm}10%$ for present experimental results and ${\pm}25%$ for previous researchers. The discrepancy of predicted condensation heat transfer coefficient is with ${\pm}12%$.

• Journal of Nuclear Fuel Cycle and Waste Technology(JNFCWT)
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• v.17 no.1
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• pp.121-126
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• 2019

The radionuclide inventory prediction of a nuclear power plant can help establish decommissioning plan by providing information of radiation environment. Accumulated radionuclides in reactors and related facilities after reactor shutdown can be divided into neutron activated materials and contaminated materials. Among the neutron activated radionuclides, $^{36}Cl$ and $^{41}Ca$ are important from the viewpoint of disposal because of its long half-life and physiochemical characteristics. In this research, we calculated the radionuclides of $^{36}Cl$ and $^{41}Ca$ in bioshielding concrete by estimating the neutron flux and cross section using the MCNPX. And we evaluated the inventories of $^{36}Cl$ and $^{41}Ca$ using the activation calculation code ORIGEN2.

• The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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• v.21 no.2
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• pp.1-14
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• 2021

Recently, crowdfunding platforms have received attention as one of the content investment platforms for the public. This research attempts to explore the influencing factors on the success of movie euqity crowdfunding project. We use 'number of texts', 'number of images', 'star influence power', 'IP-based movie project', 'movie production stage', 'box office prediction', 'investment capital ratio', 'amount of surplus available investment', 'profit calculation method' and 'minimum investment amount' as independent variables. And we examined how these factors affects the achievement rate of movie crowdfunding. As a result of multiple regression analysis, 'movie production stage', 'investment capital ratio', 'amount of surplus available investment' and 'profit calculation method' have a significant effect on the crowdfunding achievement rate. In addition, the results of this research can be used for reference when planning film crowdfunding projects.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Environmental Restoration Technology
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• v.23 no.6
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• pp.125-135
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• 2020

The uncontrolled urban expansion causes various social, economic problems and natural/environmental problems. Therefore, it is necessary to forecast urban expansion by identifying various factors related to urban expansion. This study aims to forecast it using a decision tree that is widely used in various areas. The study used geographic data such as the area of use, geographical data like elevation and slope, the environmental conservation value assessment map, and population density data for 2006 and 2018. It extracted the new urban expansion areas by comparing the residential, industrial, and commercial zones of the zoning in 2006 and 2018 and derived a decision tree using the 2006 data as independent variables. It is intended to forecast urban expansion in 2030 by applying the data for 2018 to the derived decision tree. The analysis result confirmed that the distance from the green area, the elevation, the grade of the environmental conservation value assessment map, and the distance from the industrial area were important factors in forecasting the urban area expansion. The AUC of 0.95051 showed excellent explanatory power in the ROC analysis performed to verify the accuracy. However, the forecast of the urban area expansion for 2018 using the decision tree was 15,459.98㎢, which was significantly different from the actual urban area of 4,144.93㎢ for 2018. Since many regions use decision tree to forecast urban expansion, they can be useful for identifying which factors affect urban expansion, although they are not suitable for forecasting the expansion of urban region in detail. Identifying such important factors for urban expansion is expected to provide information that can be used in future land, urban, and environmental planning.

• International Area Studies Review
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• v.13 no.2
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• pp.255-276
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• 2009

This article has examined the international transmission of returns among S&P500, Nikkei225 and SENSEX stock index cash markets using the daily closing prices covered from January 4, 2002 to February 6, 2009. For this purpose we employed dynamic time series models such as the Granger causality analysis and variance decomposition analysis based on VAR model. The main empirical results are as follows; First, according to Granger causality tests we find that S&P500 stock index has a significant prediction power on the changes of SENSEX and Nikkei225 stock index market and vice versa. However, US stock market's influence is dominant to the other stock markets at a significant level statistically. Second, according to variance decomposition, SENSEX stock index is more sensitive to the movement of S&P500 than that of Nikkei225 stock index. These kinds of empirical results shows that the three stock markets are integrated over times and these results will be informative for the international investors to build the world-wide investment portfolio and risk management strategies, etc.

• Journal of Information Technology Services
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• v.20 no.1
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• pp.29-40
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• 2021

North Korea's science and technology policies are being pursued under strong leadership and control by the central government. In particular, a large part of the research and development of science and technology related to the Fourth Industrial Revolution in North Korea is controlled and absorbed by the defense organizations under the national defense-oriented policy framework, among which North Korea is making national efforts to develop advanced technologies in artificial intelligence and actively utilize them in the military affairs. The future weapon system based on AI will have superior performance and destructive power that is different from modern weapons systems, which is likely to change the paradigm of the future battlefield, so a thorough analysis and prediction of the level of AI militarization technology, the direction of development, and AI-based weapons system in North Korea is needed. In addition, research and development of South Korea's corresponding weapon systems and military science and technology are strongly required as soon as possible. Therefore, in this paper, we will analyze the level of AI technology, the direction of AI militarization, and the AI-based weapons system in North Korea, and discuss the AI military technology and corresponding weapon systems that South Korea military must research and develop to counter the North Korea's. The next study will discuss the analysis of AI militarization technologies not only in North Korea but also in neighboring countries in Northeast Asia such as China and Russia, as well as AI weapon systems by battlefield function, detailed core technologies, and research and development measures.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.35 no.2
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• pp.189-201
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• 2022

In this study, we propose factor augmentation to improve forecasting power of cryptocurrency return. We consider financial and economic variables as well as psychological aspect for possible factors. To be more specific, financial and economic factors are obtained by applying principal factor analysis. Psychological factor is summarized by news sentiment analysis. We also visualize such factors through impulse response analysis. In the modeling perspective, we consider ARIMAX as the classical model, and random forest and deep learning to accommodate nonlinear features. As a result, we show that factor augmentation reduces prediction error and the GRU performed the best amongst all models considered.

• Journal of the Semiconductor & Display Technology
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• v.21 no.4
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• pp.81-85
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• 2022

Mist-CVD is known to have advantages of low cost and high productivity method since the precursor solution is misting with an ultrasonic generator and reacted on the substrate under vacuum-free conditions of atmospheric pressure. However, since the deposition distribution is not uniform, various efforts have been made to derive optimal conditions by changing the angle of the substrate and the position of the outlet to improve the result of the preceding study. Therefore, in this study, a deposition distribution uniformity model was derived through the shape and position of the substrate support and the conditions of inlet flow rate using the particle tracking method of computational fluid dynamics (CFD). The results of analysis were compared with the previous studies through experiment. It was confirmed that the rate of deposition area was improved from 38.7% to 100%, and the rate of deposition uniformity was 79.07% which was higher than the predicted result of simulation. Particle tracking method can reduce trial and error in experiments and can be considered as a reliable prediction method.