• Title/Summary/Keyword: posterior performance

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The inference and estimation for latent discrete outcomes with a small sample

  • Choi, Hyung;Chung, Hwan
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.23 no.2
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    • pp.131-146
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    • 2016
  • In research on behavioral studies, significant attention has been paid to the stage-sequential process for longitudinal data. Latent class profile analysis (LCPA) is an useful method to study sequential patterns of the behavioral development by the two-step identification process: identifying a small number of latent classes at each measurement occasion and two or more homogeneous subgroups in which individuals exhibit a similar sequence of latent class membership over time. Maximum likelihood (ML) estimates for LCPA are easily obtained by expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm, and Bayesian inference can be implemented via Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). However, unusual properties in the likelihood of LCPA can cause difficulties in ML and Bayesian inference as well as estimation in small samples. This article describes and addresses erratic problems that involve conventional ML and Bayesian estimates for LCPA with small samples. We argue that these problems can be alleviated with a small amount of prior input. This study evaluates the performance of likelihood and MCMC-based estimates with the proposed prior in drawing inference over repeated sampling. Our simulation shows that estimates from the proposed methods perform better than those from the conventional ML and Bayesian method.

The Unified Framework for AUC Maximizer

  • Jun, Jong-Jun;Kim, Yong-Dai;Han, Sang-Tae;Kang, Hyun-Cheol;Choi, Ho-Sik
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.16 no.6
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    • pp.1005-1012
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    • 2009
  • The area under the curve(AUC) is commonly used as a measure of the receiver operating characteristic(ROC) curve which displays the performance of a set of binary classifiers for all feasible ratios of the costs associated with true positive rate(TPR) and false positive rate(FPR). In the bipartite ranking problem where one has to compare two different observations and decide which one is "better", the AUC measures the quantity that ranking score of a randomly chosen sample in one class is larger than that of a randomly chosen sample in the other class and hence, the function which maximizes an AUC of bipartite ranking problem is different to the function which maximizes (minimizes) accuracy (misclassification error rate) of binary classification problem. In this paper, we develop a way to construct the unified framework for AUC maximizer including support vector machines based on maximizing large margin and logistic regression based on estimating posterior probability. Moreover, we develop an efficient algorithm for the proposed unified framework. Numerical results show that the propose unified framework can treat various methodologies successfully.

Species Identification of Nontoxic Alexandrium tamarense (Dinophyceae) from Chinhae Bay, Korea, Using Molecular Probes (진해만에서 분리한 무독성 Alexandrium tamarense (Dinophyceae) 동정을 위한 molecular probe 이용)

  • Cho, Eun-Seob
    • Journal of Life Science
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    • v.14 no.2
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    • pp.301-308
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    • 2004
  • The morphology of the apical pore complex, the first apical plate and the posterior sulcal plates in a new isolate of Alexandrium tamarense (Lebour) Balech from the Bay of Chinhae was compared with other that of toxic strains of A. tamarense previously isolated from Korean waters. Although this isolate was morphologically identical to these toxic strains, high performance liquid chromatography and mouse bioassay showed no evidence of toxin production. The nontoxic A. tamarense strain showed a strong positive binding activity with PNA lectin, indicating a high density of lactose and galactose residues on the cell surface, and in SDS-PAGE and Western blot analysis a unique protein of about 21-kDa molecular sizes was observed. These findings demonstrate that the use of PNA and immunobioassay could be used to discriminate between toxic and nontoxic strains of A. tamarense.

Identifying differentially expressed genes using the Polya urn scheme

  • Saraiva, Erlandson Ferreira;Suzuki, Adriano Kamimura;Milan, Luis Aparecido
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.24 no.6
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    • pp.627-640
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    • 2017
  • A common interest in gene expression data analysis is to identify genes that present significant changes in expression levels among biological experimental conditions. In this paper, we develop a Bayesian approach to make a gene-by-gene comparison in the case with a control and more than one treatment experimental condition. The proposed approach is within a Bayesian framework with a Dirichlet process prior. The comparison procedure is based on a model selection procedure developed using the discreteness of the Dirichlet process and its representation via Polya urn scheme. The posterior probabilities for models considered are calculated using a Gibbs sampling algorithm. A numerical simulation study is conducted to understand and compare the performance of the proposed method in relation to usual methods based on analysis of variance (ANOVA) followed by a Tukey test. The comparison among methods is made in terms of a true positive rate and false discovery rate. We find that proposed method outperforms the other methods based on ANOVA followed by a Tukey test. We also apply the methodologies to a publicly available data set on Plasmodium falciparum protein.

A 2-year clinical evaluation of Sculpture crowns

  • Ku, Chul-Whoi;Yang, Hong-So
    • The Journal of Korean Academy of Prosthodontics
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    • v.38 no.6
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    • pp.806-813
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    • 2000
  • Statement of problems. There are only a few studies available that deal with the clinical behavior of ceromer systems as potential substitutes for metal-ceramic crowns. Purpose. This prospective study was initiated to evaluate the clinical performance of 35 Sculpture crowns after 2 years in service. Material and methods. Thirty five Sculpture crowns were placed for 20 patients (7 men and 13 women). All patients were treated by the same dentist, and all restorations were fabricated by the same dental laboratory. Crown placement involved both the anterior and posterior regions of the dental arches. Patients were evaluated by two examiner at baseline, 12, and 24 months using the CDA quality assessment system in addition to periodontal criteria. Results. Of 34 crowns remaining in the study after 2 years, only one crown had experienced a marginal fracture. The crown was replaced as a result of recurrent caries. All remaining crowns were ranked as either excellent or acceptable for surface and color, anatomic form, and marginal integrity. Conclusion. The 2-year clinical observations and ranking with the CDA quality assessment criteria supported the conclusion that Sculpture crowns may be used in substitutes for metal-ceramic crowns.

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Cancelation of Baseline Wandering of Electroglottograph Signal using Empirical Mode Decomposition (경험적 모드 재구성 방법을 이용한 성문파형 신호의 기계선 변동 제거)

  • Jang, Seung-Jin;Kim, Hyo-Min;Park, Young-Cheol;Choi, Hong-Shik;Yoon, Young-Ro
    • Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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    • 2007.10a
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    • pp.475-476
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    • 2007
  • Electroglottography (EGG) is a technique used to register laryngeal behavior indirectly by a measuring the change in electrical impedance across the throat during speaking. However, EGG waveform is affected by laryngeal muscles which fluctuate the vocal cords, and which result in baseline wander. It is required to reduce baseline wander in EGG waveform, because EGG waveform is used for input signal of nonlinear speech synthesizer in next chapter. In vocal cords, the abduction-adduction of glottis is mainly controlled by the posterior cricoarytenoid (abductor) and interarytenoid (adductor) muscles respectively. Empirical Mode Decomposition method was adopted in cancellation of EGG waveform baseline wandering, and showd better performance than that of high pass filter with 500 order.

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Texture segmentation using Neural Networks and multi-scale Bayesian image segmentation technique (신경회로망과 다중스케일 Bayesian 영상 분할 기법을 이용한 결 분할)

  • Kim Tae-Hyung;Eom Il-Kyu;Kim Yoo-Shin
    • Journal of the Institute of Electronics Engineers of Korea SP
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    • v.42 no.4 s.304
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    • pp.39-48
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    • 2005
  • This paper proposes novel texture segmentation method using Bayesian estimation method and neural networks. We use multi-scale wavelet coefficients and the context information of neighboring wavelets coefficients as the input of networks. The output of neural networks is modeled as a posterior probability. The context information is obtained by HMT(Hidden Markov Tree) model. This proposed segmentation method shows better performance than ML(Maximum Likelihood) segmentation using HMT model. And post-processed texture segmentation results as using multi-scale Bayesian image segmentation technique called HMTseg in each segmentation by HMT and the proposed method also show that the proposed method is superior to the method using HMT.

Analysis of Posture Sway during Quiet Standing in Elderly (정적직립자세에서 노인들의 자세동요 분석)

  • Lee, Kyung-Soon
    • Journal of Korean Physical Therapy Science
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    • v.18 no.1
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    • pp.69-77
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    • 2011
  • Background: The purpose of this study was to assessment of posture sway on static standing in the elderly. Methods: The participants aged 60 to 90 years, were divided into age such 60s, 70s and 80s and with a history of exercise, arthritis and hang on one's stick. Posture sway were analyzed using the computerized BPM system. Each test was repeated three times. All the data were expressed means and standard deviation by using SPSS 12.0 program. Results: The posture sway test according to sex showed that mean balance, sway number and frequency performance were significantly stable in men than in women. All direction frequency, sway area, sway path and max velocity were significantly unstable in 80s than 70s and 60s. The results of the posture sway test according to exercise group, arthritis and hang on one's stick group were showed that mean balance function was significantly stable in exercise group than arthritis and stick groups. The weight was showed significant correlation by mean balance, sway no, frequency, sway area, sway path and max velocity. Sway area and max velocity were not significant correlation by frequency of lateral and left, right anterior and posterior direction. Conclusion: In this study was showed that posture sway was effected from health condition of elderly.

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Parameter Optimization and Uncertainty Analysis of the Rainfall-Runoff Model (강우-유출모형 매개변수의 최적화 및 불확실성 분석)

  • Moon, Young-Il;Kwon, Hyun-Han
    • 한국방재학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 2008.02a
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    • pp.723-726
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    • 2008
  • It is not always easy to estimate the parameters in hydrologic models due to insufficient hydrologic data when hydraulic structures are designed or water resources plan are established, uncertainty analysis, therefore, are inevitably needed to examine reliability for the estimated results. With regard to this point, this study applies a Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo scheme to the NWS-PC rainfall-runoff model that has been widely used, and a case study is performed in Soyang Dam watershed in Korea. The NWS-PC model is calibrated against observed daily runoff, and thirteen parameters in the model are optimized as well as posterior distributions associated with each parameter are derived. The Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo shows a improved result in terms of statistical performance measures and graphical examination. The patterns of runoff can be influenced by various factors and the Bayesian approaches are capable of translating the uncertainties into parameter uncertainties. One could provide against an expected runoff event by utilizing information driven by Bayesian methods. Therefore, the rainfall-runoff analysis coupled with the uncertainty analysis can give us an insight in evaluating flood risk and dam size in a reasonable way.

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Neuropsychological Assessment of Adult Patients with Shunted Hydrocephalus

  • Bakar, Emel Erdogan;Bakar, Bulent
    • Journal of Korean Neurosurgical Society
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    • v.47 no.3
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    • pp.191-198
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    • 2010
  • Objective : This study is planned to determine the neurocognitive difficulties of hydrocephalic adults. Methods : The research group contained healthy adults (control group, n : 15), and hydrocephalic adults (n : 15). Hydrocephalic group consisted of patients with idiopathic aquaduct stenosis and post-meningitis hydrocephalus. All patients were followed with shunted hydrocephalus and not gone to shunt revision during last two years. They were chosen from either asymptomatic or had only minor symptoms without motor and sensorineural deficit. A neuropsychological test battery (Raven Standart Progressive Matrices, Bender-Gestalt Test, Cancellation Test, Clock Drawing Test, Facial Recognition Test, Line Orientation Test, Serial Digit Learning Test, Stroop Color Word Interference Test-TBAG Form, Verbal Fluency Test, Verbal Fluency Test, Visual-Aural Digit Span Test-B) was applied to all groups. Results : Neuropsychological assessment of hydrocephalic patients demonstrated that they had poor performance on visual, semantic and working memory, visuoconstructive and frontal functions, reading, attention, motor coordination and executive function of parietal lobe which related with complex and perseverative behaviour. Eventually, these patients had significant impairment on the neurocognitive functions of their frontal, parietal and temporal lobes. On the other hand, the statistical analyses performed on demographic data showed that the aetiology of the hydrocephalus, age, sex and localization of the shunt (frontal or posterior parietal) did not affect the test results. Conclusion : This prospective study showed that adult patients with hydrocephalus have serious neuropsychological problems which might be directly caused by the hydrocephalus; and these problems may cause serious adaptive difficulties in their social, cultural, behavioral and academic life.