• Title/Summary/Keyword: possible hazard

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The Assessing Comparative Study for Statistical Process Control of Software Reliability Model Based on polynomial hazard function (다항 위험함수에 근거한 NHPP 소프트웨어 신뢰모형에 관한 통계적 공정관리 접근방법 비교연구)

  • Kim, Hee-Cheul;Shin, Hyun-Cheul
    • The Journal of Korea Institute of Information, Electronics, and Communication Technology
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    • v.8 no.5
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    • pp.345-353
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    • 2015
  • There are many software reliability models that are based on the times of occurrences of errors in the debugging of software. It is shown that it is possible to do parameter inference for software reliability models based on finite failure model and non-homogeneous Poisson Processes (NHPP). For someone making a decision to market software, the conditional failure rate is an important variables. In this case, finite failure model are used in a wide variety of practical situations. Their use in characterization problems, detection of outlier, linear estimation, study of system reliability, life-testing, survival analysis, data compression and many other fields can be seen from the many study. Statistical process control (SPC) can monitor the forecasting of software failure and thereby contribute significantly to the improvement of software reliability. Control charts are widely used for software process control in the software industry. In this paper, proposed a control mechanism based on NHPP using mean value function of polynomial hazard function.

Risk Screening of a BTX Plant Using FEDI Method (화재폭발손실지수법을 이용한 BTX 공장의 위험선별)

  • Kim Yong-Ha;Kim In-Tae;Kim In-Won;Kim Ku-Hwoi;Yoon En-Sup
    • Fire Science and Engineering
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    • v.19 no.1 s.57
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    • pp.20-28
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    • 2005
  • Major petrochemical companies in the USA and the EU map out the strategies step-by-step hazard evaluation for the efficient risk management. They adopted the risk screening methods, such as Dow fire & explosion index, as a preliminary phase to execute detailed evaluation such as QRA (Quantitative Risk Assessment). In this study, The FEDI (Fire & Explosion Damage Index), which a kind of risk screening method proposed by Khan and Abbasi, was applied to the BTX plant in Korea. We showed that the FEDI can be effectively used to classify the hazard potential by comparison of the result from the FEDI and the result from QRA. And we showed that the characteristics and the quantities of chemical are the factors which have a largest effect on fire and explosion by executing relative sensitivity analysis of the FEDI. In conclusion, if the FEDI was applied as a preliminary phase of HAZOP, more efficient hazard evaluation can be possible.

Comparison of Underwater Drop Characteristics for Hazard Apparatuses on Subsea Cable Using Fluid-Structure Interaction Analysis (유체-구조 연성해석 기반 해저케이블 위해인자의 수중낙하 특성 비교)

  • Jang, Gyung-Ho;Kim, Jeong-Hun;Song, Chang Yong
    • Journal of Ocean Engineering and Technology
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    • v.32 no.5
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    • pp.324-332
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    • 2018
  • It is known that damages to the subsea cables used for electric power transmission between islands and countries, including renewable energy from offshore wind power, current, tides, etc., cost much to restore, which causes social and economic losses. Various types of fishing rigs and anchors have been reported to be the greatest hazards to subsea cables. It is possible to design and construct a suitable protection facility for a subsea cable by precisely estimating the underwater behavior of such hazardous apparatuses. In this study, numerical simulations of the underwater behaviors of various hazardous apparatuses were carried out using fluid-structure interaction (FSI) analysis as a basic study to simulate the actual behavior phenomena of hazardous apparatuses in relation to a subsea cable. In addition, the underwater drop characteristics according to the types of hazardous apparatuses were compared. In order to verify the accuracy of the FSI analysis method used in this study, we compared the test results for underwater drops of a steel ball bearing. Stock anchors, stockless anchors, and rocket piles, which were actually reported to be the cases of damage to subsea cables along the southwest coast of Korea, were considered as the hazardous apparatuses for the numerical simulations. Each hazardous apparatus was generated by a Lagrangian model and coupled with the fluid domain idealized by the Eulerian equation to construct the three-dimensional FSI analysis model. The accuracy of the numerical simulation results was verified by comparing them with the analytical solutions, and the underwater drop characteristics according to the types of hazard apparatuses were compared.

Applicability of FDS for the Fire Hazard Analysis of the Fire Zone at Nuclear Power Plants (원전 화재방호구역의 화재위험 분석을 위한 FDS 적용성)

  • Jee, Moon-Hak;Lee, Byung-Kon
    • Fire Science and Engineering
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    • v.20 no.4 s.64
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    • pp.13-18
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    • 2006
  • The fire protection regulation for the nuclear power plants is based on the qualitative fire hazard assessment and the quantitative fire risk analysis, and the fire risk is managed by the fire protection plan with the appropriate balance among the fire prevention, fire suppression and the minimization of the fire effect. In these days, the zone model or the field model is generally used for the detail evaluation for the fire risk. At this paper, with consideration of the present trend, we evaluate whether the quantitative fire risk analysis and the assessment of fire result for fire areas at nuclear power plants can be possible by use of Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS) that is the state-of-the-art fire modeling tool. Consequently, it is expected that the quantitative fire risk evaluation propelled by the fire modeling can be available as an applicable tool to improve the core damage frequency as well as the quantitative fire risk analysis.

A Quantitative Risk Analysis of LPG Leaked During Cylinder Delivery (가스용기 운반 중 누출된 LPG의 정량적 위험 분석)

  • Kim B-J,;Park Ki-Chang;Lee Kuen-Won
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Gas
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    • v.7 no.2 s.19
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    • pp.33-41
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    • 2003
  • There exists high hazard when transporting LPG as well as using, storing, and producing. For small scale LPG consumer, retailers deliver LPG to customers via a truck loading many LPG cylinders. Suppose there occurred a accident during LPG cylinder transfer, this could result in serious damages to the life and properties in the near or neighbor of the accident spot. In this regard, we made a quantitative risk analysis to estimate the possible damages and the probability through the identification of accidents causes and the simulation of the possible scenario. In this study, we made the Excel & Visual Basic computer program to perform quantitative LPG accident analysis. The simulation showed the following results. In case of UVCE(Unconfined Vapor Cloud Explosion), the effect within l0m of the accident spot showed very severe structural damages and even the accident can break the window glasses of the area of 150 m apart from accident spot. In case of TNT corresponding probit analysis, after 10 minutes LPG leaking, $75\%$ window glasses of 40 m distance was expected to be broken. And $16\%$ frames of 20m distance, $10\%$ frames of 40m distance was expected to be collapsed.

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Adverse Outcome Pathways for Prediction of Chemical Toxicity at Work: Their Applications and Prospects (작업장 화학물질 독성예측을 위한 독성발현경로의 응용과 전망)

  • Rim, Kyung-Taek;Choi, Heung-Koo;Lee, In-Seop
    • Journal of Korean Society of Occupational and Environmental Hygiene
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    • v.29 no.2
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    • pp.141-158
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    • 2019
  • Objectives: An adverse outcome pathway is a biological pathway that disturbs homeostasis and causes toxicity. It is a conceptual framework for organizing existing biological knowledge and consists of the molecular initiating event, key event, and adverse output. The AOP concept provides intuitive risk identification that can be helpful in evaluating the carcinogenicity of chemicals and in the prevention of cancer through the assessment of chemical carcinogenicity predictions. Methods: We reviewed various papers and books related to the application of AOPs for the prevention of occupational cancer. We mainly used the internet to search for the necessary research data and information, such as via Google scholar(http://scholar.google.com), ScienceDirect(www.sciencedirect.com), Scopus(www.scopus. com), NDSL(http: //www.ndsl.kr/index.do) and PubMed(http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed). The key terms searched were "adverse outcome pathway," "toxicology," "risk assessment," "human exposure," "worker," "nanoparticle," "applications," and "occupational safety and health," among others. Results: Since it focused on the current state of AOP for the prediction of toxicity from chemical exposure at work and prospects for industrial health in the context of the AOP concept, respiratory and nanomaterial hazard assessments. AOP provides an intuitive understanding of the toxicity of chemicals as a conceptual means, and it works toward accurately predicting chemical toxicity. The AOP technique has emerged as a future-oriented alternative to the existing paradigm of chemical hazard and risk assessment. AOP can be applied to the assessment of chemical carcinogenicity along with efforts to understand the effects of chronic toxic chemicals in workplaces. Based on these predictive tools, it could be possible to bring about a breakthrough in the prevention of occupational and environmental cancer. Conclusions: The AOP tool has emerged as a future-oriented alternative to the existing paradigm of chemical hazard and risk assessment and has been widely used in the field of chemical risk assessment and the evaluation of carcinogenicity at work. It will be a useful tool for prediction, and it is possible that it can help bring about a breakthrough in the prevention of occupational and environmental cancer.

A System Dynamics Approach for Modeling Cognitive Process of Construction Workers'Unsafe Behaviors (시스템 다이내믹스를 이용한 건설 작업자의 불안전한 행동의 인지 과정 모델링)

  • Kim, Jinwoo;Lee, Hyunsoo;Park, Moonseo;Kwon, Nahyun
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.18 no.2
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    • pp.38-48
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    • 2017
  • Finding causes of workers' unsafe behaviors is important to prevent construction accidents because 80 percent of accidents occur by workers' unsafe behaviors. In this regard, this research aims to investigate possible reasons of workers' unsafe behaviors based on workers' cognitive process model using System dynamics. This study is based on two ways of workers' cognitive process which are in relation to hazard perception and failure of hazard perception. Based on existing literature, causal loops for workers' cognitive process are developed to explain workers' habituation by staying out of accidents, safety learning by experience, failure of hazard perception, and attitude change by accidents. The interactions between the developed loops provide managerial insights to reduce workers' unsafe behaviors from a safety manager's perspective including increasing the probability of workers' hazard perception through knowledge management, maintaining workers' positive attitude toward safety, and controlling first-line supervisors to eliminate workers' unsafe behavior. The research allows us to better understand the causes and solutions of workers' unsafe behaviors in workers' cognitive perspectives.

Prediction of Ground Subsidence Hazard Area Using GIS and Probability Model near Abandoned Underground Coal Mine (GIS 및 확률모델을 이용한 폐탄광 지역의 지반침하 위험 예측)

  • Choi, Jong-Kuk;Kim, Ki-Dong;Lee, Sa-Ro;Kim, Il-Soo;Won, Joong-Sun
    • Economic and Environmental Geology
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    • v.40 no.3 s.184
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    • pp.295-306
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    • 2007
  • In this study, we predicted areas vulnerable to ground subsidence near abandoned underground coal mine at Sam-cheok City in Korea using a probability (frequency ratio) model with Geographic Information System (GIS). To extract the factors related to ground subsidence, a spatial database was constructed from a topographical map, geo-logical map, mining tunnel map, land characteristic map, and borehole data on the study area including subsidence sites surveyed in 2000. Eight major factors were extracted from the spatial analysis and the probability analysis of the surveyed ground subsidence sites. We have calculated the decision coefficient ($R^2$) to find out the relationship between eight factors and the occurrence of ground subsidence. The frequency ratio model was applied to deter-mine each factor's relative rating, then the ratings were overlaid for ground subsidence hazard mapping. The ground subsidence hazard map was then verified and compared with the surveyed ground subsidence sites. The results of verification showed high accuracy of 96.05% between the predicted hazard map and the actual ground subsidence sites. Therefore, the quantitative analysis of ground subsidence near abandoned underground coal mine would be possible with a frequency ratio model and a GIS.

A Preliminary Study on Calculating Eruptive Volumes of Monogenetic Volcanoes and Volcanic Hazard Evaluation in Jeju Island (제주도 단성화산의 분화량 계산과 화산재해 평가에 대한 예비연구)

  • Ko, Bokyun;Yun, Sung-Hyo
    • The Journal of the Petrological Society of Korea
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    • v.25 no.2
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    • pp.143-149
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    • 2016
  • Eruptive volumes of three monogenetic volcanoes (Songaksan tuff ring, Biyangdo scoria cone, and Ilchulbong tuff cone) with the youngest eruption age are calculated using the model, applied to Auckland Volcanic Field in New Zealand, to investigate the volcanic eruption scale and to evaluate volcanic hazard of Jeju Island. Calculated eruptive volumes of the volcanoes are $24,987,557m^3$, $9,652,025m^3$, and $11,911,534m^3$, respectively, and the volumes include crater infill, tuff ring (tuff cone), scoria cone, and lava flow. Volcanic explosivity indices of Songaksan tuff ring, Biyangdo scoria cone, and Ilchulbong tuff cone are estimated based on the eruptive volumes to be 3, 2, and 3 respectively, and eruption type is Strombolian to Surtseyan. It is assumed that the amount of emitted sulfur dioxide gas is $2-8{\times}10^3kt/y$ according to the correlation between volcanic explosivity index and volcanic sulfur dioxide index. Recent age dating researches reveal evidences of several volcanic activities during the last 10,000 years indicating the possible volcanic eruption in Jeju Island in the near future. Therefore, it is necessary for appropriate researches regarding volcanic eruption of the island to be accomplished. In addition, establishment of the evaluation and preparation system for volcanic hazard based on the researches is required.

Integration and Decision Algorithm for Location-Based Road Hazardous Data Collected by Probe Vehicles (프로브 수집 위치기반 도로위험정보 통합 및 판단 알고리즘)

  • Chae, Chandle;Sim, HyeonJeong;Lee, Jonghoon
    • The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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    • v.17 no.6
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    • pp.173-184
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    • 2018
  • As the portable traffic information collection system using probe vehicles spreads, it is becoming possible to collect road hazard information such as portholes, falling objects, and road surface freezing using in-vehicle sensors in addition to existing traffic information. In this study, we developed a integration and decision algorithm that integrates time and space in real time when multiple probe vehicles detect events such as road hazard information based on GPS coordinates. The core function of the algorithm is to determine whether the road hazard information generated at a specific point is the same point from the result of detecting multiple GPS probes with different GPS coordinates, Generating the data, (3) continuously determining whether the generated event data is valid, and (4) ending the event when the road hazard situation ends. For this purpose, the road risk information collected by the probe vehicle was processed in real time to achieve the conditional probability, and the validity of the event was verified by continuously updating the road risk information collected by the probe vehicle. It is considered that the developed hybrid processing algorithm can be applied to probe-based traffic information collection and event information processing such as C-ITS and autonomous driving car in the future.