• 응용통계연구
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• 제24권1호
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• pp.115-125
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• 2011

사망률 예측모형과 생명표 작성방법에 기반을 둔 예측평균수명 작성은 미래의 사망수준을 평가하는 효과적인 방법이 된다. 2006년 통계청에서 장래인구추계 작성 시 예측평균수명을 작성하였으나, 2006년 이후 현재까지 실제평균수명과 적지 않은 차이를 보이고 있어 평균수명의 증가속도를 반영하지 못하고 있다. 이의 원인으로는 전망치에 대한판단, 사망률 예측모형의 선택과 사용 등이 이유가 될 수 있다. 본 논문에서는 사망률 예측모형의 선택관점에서 이 문제를 살펴보고자 한다. 2011년 장래인구추계 작성을 앞둔 상황에서 오류의 반복을 피하기 위해서는 사망률 예측모형에 대한 특성 및 적용가능성에 대한 충분한 검토가 이루어진 후 적절한 모형을 선택해야 할 것이다. 사망률 예측모형은 주로 사용되고 있는 LC(Lee와 Carter) 모형과 이의 개선모형들, 사망확률 확장모형인 HP8(Heligman과 Pollard 8 parameters) 모형 등 모두 5개의 모형을 비교 분석하였다. 분석결과를 바탕으로 5개의 모형별로 2030까지의 남녀별 예측평균수명을 작성하여 제시하였고, 이를 통계청에서 제공하는 예측평균수명과 비교하였다. 5개의 모형에 의해 작성된 2030년까지의 새로운 예측평균수명은 통계청의 결과보다 높게 나타나 실제평균수명의 변화를 상대적으로 잘 반영하는 것으로 나타났다.

• 응용통계연구
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• 제33권4호
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• pp.421-437
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• 2020

본 논문은 최근에 널리 사용되고 있는 R 프로그램으로 출산율, 사망률, 국제이동률을 예측하고 이들 결과를 Leslie 행렬에 대입해 인구추계 산출하는 방법을 소개한다. 특히 Kaneko (2003)가 제안한 출산율의 일반화로그감마모형, Li 등 (2013)의 사망률 LC-ER 모형, Ramsay와 Silverman (2005)가 제안한 국제이동률의 함수적데이터모형을 시현할 수 있도록 하였다. 최근 R로 구현된 대표적인 인구추계 패키지로 demography, bayesPop가 소개되고 있으나, 이는 Human Mortality Database (HMD), Human Fertility Database (HFD)에 업로드된 자료에 한에서만 분석이 가능하고 기타 데이터를 적용하기 위해서는 자료 변경과 수정이 요구된다. 특히 우리나라의 경우 HMD에 단기 간의 자료로만 제공되어 있어 이 패키기를 적용하기에는 한계점이 있다. 이에 본 논문은 이런 실정과 한국의 저출산, 고령화, 내국인, 외국인 국제이동률 상이패턴을 반영할 수 있는 R 프로그램을 소개하고, 2117년까지의 인구추계를 도출하였다.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• 제18권4호
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• pp.955-961
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• 2007

Population projections provides useful basic information for the need of economic resources and labor forces. The National Office of Statistics(NSO) presents population projections for the whole country and some of higher level local governments, but not do projections of the lower level local governments. Here are some projection methods as Hamilton-Perry methods and modified auto regression methods, which are compared to cohort method published by NSO in case of Daegu metropolitan city. The simulation results are a little stagnant with modified auto regression, but a little declines are shown with NSO and HP method, for 2010, 2015 and 2020 year, respectively.

• 한국산업정보학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국산업정보학회 2009년도 춘계학술대회 미래 IT융합기술 및 전략
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• pp.153-159
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• 2009

The purpose of this paper is to suggest the problems of basic population data(1960-2005) and the data(2006-2050) of population projections reported by Korean National Statistical Office in November 2006. The errors on the basic population data can be easily checked by using the graphical analysis and the method of linear regression analysis. It is necessary to revise the population projections reported by Korean National Statistical Office.

• 한국인구학
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• 제9권2호
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• pp.30-41
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• 1986

It is worthwhile to compare the major social indicators between Korea the and Taiwan particularly focusing on population because two countries share close similarities in many aspects and gave access to the advanced level among the developing countries in recent years. Similarities or dissimilarities presented in this paper will be helpful to the researchers and the policy makers of the two countries by giving them insight on the situation. The similarities and dissimilarities between the two countries in the field of demography and social indicators are summarized as follows : 1. Similarity indicators can be found in fertility. One of them is Net Reproduction Rate and it was less than one in both countries in 1985. The past trend of fertility, in fact level and pattern of it, of the two countries from 1960 to 1985 has been very similar. 2. Level and pattern of mortality is quite different between two countries. Mortality level of Taiwan is lower than that of Korea. 3. The close similarity between two countries was shown in population structure and aging index. 4. On future population projection, the population structure and the level and pattern of fertility of the two countries are very similar. During fourty years, the period from the current population growth rate which is a little more than 1% to the zero growth rate, the annual population growth rate of the two countries is approximately 0.6% and that is similar to those of the current industrialized countries. According to the medium variant of the projection, Korean population will reach Zero Growth Rate between 2020 and 2025 whereas Taiwan between 2025 and 2020 5. Current level of contraceptive prevalence of both countries is very similar showing above 70% of the eligible women in 1985 and one of the valuable factors of achieving this high rate within short period must be the national program of the family planning. A close cooperation in the field of population policy formulation and its implementation is indispensable because Korea and Taiwan have similarity in many population indicators.

• 대한지리학회지
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• 제47권1호
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• pp.98-120
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• 2012

본 연구의 주된 목적은 다지역 코호트-요인법을 적용하여 우리나라의 시도별 장래 인구 추계를 실행하는 것이다. 마르코프 연쇄 모델과 Rogers의 다지역 인구 추계 모델에 대한 검토를 바탕으로 실행 가능한 다지역 코호트-요인법의 프레임워크를 설정하였다. 이 프레임워크를 우리나라 데이터에 적용하여 2005~2030년에 대한 5년 단위의 시도별 인구 추계를 실행하였으며, 그 결과에 대한 타당성을 검토하였다. 중요한 연구 결과는 다음과 같다. 첫째, 본 연구의 추계치를 기존 통계청의 추계치 및 경험 데이터와 비교해 본 결과 제안된 추계 기법의 방법론적 타당성이 매우 높은 것으로 드러났다. 둘째, 본 연구의 방법론은 미래의 지역간 인구이동 매트릭스를 산출한다는 측면에서 추계 결과의 유용성이 매우 높은 것으로 판단되었다. 미래의 지역간 인구이동에 대한 정보는 지역별 인구변동을 이해하고 실질적인 정책 대안을 제시하는데 핵심적인 역할을 할 수 있다. 본 연구는 국가 전체의 인구변동 보다는 인구 이동을 통해 상호 연결되어 있는 하위 지역 인구들의 진화 과정을 더욱 강조하는 다지역 관점의 중요성을 예증하고 있다.

• Archives of Plastic Surgery
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• 제42권3호
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• pp.309-315
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• 2015

Background Breast projection is a critical element of breast reconstruction aesthetics, but little has been published regarding breast projection as the firm expander is changed to a softer implant. Quantitative data representing this loss in projection may enhance patient education and improve our management of patient expectations. Methods Female patients who were undergoing immediate tissue-expander breast reconstruction with the senior author were enrolled in this prospective study. Three-dimensional camera software was used for all patient photographs and data analysis. Projection was calculated as the distance between the chest wall and the point of maximal projection of the breast form. Values were calculated for final tissue expander expansion and at varying intervals 3, 6, and 12 months after implant placement. Results Fourteen breasts from 12 patients were included in the final analysis. Twelve of the 14 breasts had a loss of projection at three months following the implant placement or beyond. The percentage of projection lost in these 12 breasts ranged from 6.30% to 43.4%, with an average loss of projection of 21.05%. Conclusions This study is the first prospective quantitative analysis of temporal changes in breast projection after expander-implant reconstruction. By prospectively capturing projection data with three-dimensional photographic software, we reveal a loss of projection in this population by three months post-implant exchange. These findings will not only aid in managing patient expectations, but our methodology provides a foundation for future objective studies of the breast form.

• 한국인구학
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• 제17권1호
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• pp.1-16
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• 1994

Since 1962, the population growth control has been one of the most important aims in the 5-Year So-cioeconomic Development Plans of Korea. The annual population growth rate has dropped to tess than 1 percent in 1990 from about 3 percents in 1960s, and projected to reach to $\ulcorner$0$\urcorner$ percent in 2021. From 2021, Korean population will decrease and the age structure will be distorted because birth rate will drop suddenly and continuously. Thus, we can consider $\ulcorner$0$\urcorner$ growth population for minimizing the prob- lems on the decreasing population. To discuss the problems caused from the changes of population size and age- sex composition, we projected three kinds of population including two kinds of $\ulcorner$0$\urcorner$ growth population under different as- sumptions. The first is the population which extended the projection of National Statistical Office up to 2090. Because the TFR is assumed and fixed as low as 1.63 after 1990, the population growth rate will be under $\ulcorner$0$\urcorner$ in 2021 and drop by about 1 percent every year from around 2050. This population trend results to old age population : 38.1 of old- age dependency ratio and 46.5 years of median age. The second is the population which the size in 2021 projected by the NOS continues after 2021. To change over from the decreasing population after 2021 to the $\ulcorner$0$\urcorner$ growth one, the TFR should be in-creased up to over 3.0 in 2040-2050, which fertility level would be too high to be accepted. The third is the population which approaches to the $\ulcorner$0$\urcorner$ growth population under the assumptions that the TFR increases from 1.63 to 2.1 in the period of 2010-2030 and then the same level continues. Although the maximum population size reaches 51, 503 thousand persons, the population will approach to the stationary population with about 42.4 million persons around 2090. In this projected population there is no more serious problems on population composition, on the rapid decrease of population, and on the increase TFR level. When the $\ulcorner$0$\urcorner$ growth population continues the problems of over population caused by the populationincrease wou]d be minimized, and the problems of unusual age composition resulted from the popula-tion decrease would not be found any more. Furthermore, when the changes of population size and composition is continuing slowly, the factors of population would effect moderately to socioeconomic development and help social changes. Therefore, with the attention of the present population changes, we should adapt new and detailde population policy which is able to get the $\ulcorner$0$\urcorner$ growth population.

• Korean Journal of Mathematics
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• 제22권1호
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• pp.29-36
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• 2014

The limiting diffusion of special diploid model can be defined as a discrete generator for the rescaled Markov chain. Choi([2]) defined the operator of projection $S_t$ on limiting diffusion and new measure $dQ=S_tdP$. and showed the martingale property on this operator and measure. Let $P_{\rho}$ be the unique solution of the martingale problem for $\mathcal{L}_0$ starting at ${\rho}$ and ${\pi}_1,{\pi}_2,{\cdots},{\pi}_n$ the projection of $E^n$ on $x_1,x_2,{\cdots},x_n$. In this note we define $$dQ_{\rho}=S_tdP_{\rho}$$ and show that $Q_{\rho}$ solves the martingale problem for $\mathcal{L}_{\pi}$ starting at ${\rho}$.

• KIEAE Journal
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• 제17권5호
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• pp.5-14
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• 2017

Purpose: In korea, Aging in Place is underway as an alternative to elderly housing for the aging population. Currently, research is being actively conducted mainly for the baby boomer generation and older generation. There is not much research on various ages that will be needed continuously in elderly housing and aging in place in the future. Therefore, this study suggests aging in place of urban elderly housing through analysis of urban preference of all ages. Method: An analysis of prior studies related to elderly housing, Field interpretation about Aging in Place, An analysis of the city preference through the survey of the elderly, Existing Literature Survey, Housing Survey, Future Population Projection, Survey of the elderly and confirmed the necessity of the Aging in Place of urban elderly housing. Result: As there are many generations living in the city and many people prefer it, studies on urban elderly housing should be actively conducted and should be studied as Aging in Place that can be used for all ages. In addition, it is necessary to study the advantages and disadvantages of using Aging in Place in the city through domestic or overseas case analysis.