• Title/Summary/Keyword: population growth rate

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Comparing the Performance of 17 Machine Learning Models in Predicting Human Population Growth of Countries

  • Otoom, Mohammad Mahmood
    • International Journal of Computer Science & Network Security
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    • v.21 no.1
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    • pp.220-225
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    • 2021
  • Human population growth rate is an important parameter for real-world planning. Common approaches rely upon fixed parameters like human population, mortality rate, fertility rate, which is collected historically to determine the region's population growth rate. Literature does not provide a solution for areas with no historical knowledge. In such areas, machine learning can solve the problem, but a multitude of machine learning algorithm makes it difficult to determine the best approach. Further, the missing feature is a common real-world problem. Thus, it is essential to compare and select the machine learning techniques which provide the best and most robust in the presence of missing features. This study compares 17 machine learning techniques (base learners and ensemble learners) performance in predicting the human population growth rate of the country. Among the 17 machine learning techniques, random forest outperformed all the other techniques both in predictive performance and robustness towards missing features. Thus, the study successfully demonstrates and compares machine learning techniques to predict the human population growth rate in settings where historical data and feature information is not available. Further, the study provides the best machine learning algorithm for performing population growth rate prediction.

Review of Population Policy in Korea (우리나라 인구정책방향의 재음미)

  • 이규식;김택일
    • Korea journal of population studies
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    • v.11 no.1
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    • pp.32-49
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    • 1988
  • The social conditions in Koreas until 1950s were similar to the model phenomena of low level eqilibrium trap which was named by Prof. Nelson, with the continuation of high population growth rate and low economic growth rate. To escape from the trap, Korean government adopted two different policies, one is economic development plans and the other is family planning programs. Theses policies were successful in both increasing the national products and decreasing the population growth rate. In 1985 per capita GNP increased to over two thousand dollars, fertility rate reduced to replacement level(2.1) and unemployment rate was stabilized at 4 percent level. From various prospects, we were successfully escaped from the Malthusian trap and many economists, who studied developed countries, belive that population growth has positive effects on technological progress, economies of scale, specialization, individual attitude on work, and economic growth. Therefore we need to reexamine the anti-natalistic population policy of Korea in this situation.

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Estimation of Denominators- a New Approach for Calculating of Various Rates in Cancer Registries

  • Haroon, A.S.;Gupta, S.M.;Tyagi, B.B.;Farhat, J.
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.13 no.7
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    • pp.3229-3232
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    • 2012
  • In this study, cancer incidence data were assessed to provide various rates of five year age groups for a given year, lying between two census years. The individual exponential growth rate method is most useful in both population-based and non-population cased cancer registries in India to estimate the population by five yearly age groups and also find the rates of crude rates, age standard rates and cumulative rates. This method has been shown to endure from bias and often results sacrificing the overall growth rate and correction factor must be needful in five year age group population to maintain it. A second method, the difference distribution method is also able to maintain the overall growth rate and overcome the bias in estimation of five yearly age group populations. From this point of view these methods serving a new technique for population estimation by five yearly age groups for inter census years.

Aquatic Plants for Wastewater Treatment (수생식물을 이용한 수질정화에 관한 연구)

  • 나규환;권성환;이장훈
    • Journal of Environmental Health Sciences
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    • v.22 no.3
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    • pp.49-55
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    • 1996
  • Water parsley(Oenanthe javanica(Blume) DC) was raised with varying population density(S) in the laboratory aquarium unit to determine the growth equation. The population density was measure after 7 days. The resultant growth curve was well fit to the equation 1/S = A+B (1/S0) with a high correlation coefficient ($R^2$ = 0.999). The maximum specific absorption rate was $9.011 \times 10^{-5}$ kg $NO_x-N/kg$ water parsley$\cdot$day and $1.31 \times 10^{-5}$ kg $PO_4-P/kg$ water parsley$\cdot$day when the average population density was $2.62 kg/m^2$. The relationship between population density and nutrient absorption rate, the absorption rate of $NO_x-N$ was 5.04~5.24 mg/l$\cdot$day when the population density was $7.51~10.0 $mg/m^2\cdot day$ and the absorption rate of $PO_4-P$ was 0.56~0.78 mg/l$\cdot$day when the population density was 5.02~10.0 $kg/m^2\cdot day$. Taking into account the nutrient absorption rate and growth rate, the population density between $7.0 kg/m^2\cdot day$ and $8.0 kg/m^2 \cdot day$ was selected. The removal rate of nutrient was investigated after 7 days culture. Removal rate of $NO_x-N$ was 95.6~99.95% with initial concentration of 35 mg $NO_x-N/l$, and the removal rate of $PO_4-P$ was also high, indicating 80.24~98.9% with initial concentration of 5.95 mg $PO_x-P/l$.

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The Effect of Demographic Changes on the Growth Potential of Korea (인구구조 변화가 성장 잠재력에 미치는 영향)

  • Joo, Sangyeong;Hyun, Jun Seog
    • Analyses & Alternatives
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    • v.4 no.2
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    • pp.71-102
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    • 2020
  • This study analyzes the effect of demographic changes on economic growth. We use the supply-side output identity to forecast the growth potential of the Korean economy. According to the results, even based on optimistic assumptions and prospects, the economic growth rate is likely to fall drastically starting in 2020. Of course, to maintain growth potential, efforts to increase productivity are necessary. However, given the historical experience of developed countries, it is not clear whether the huge trend of demographic change can be offset by efforts to increase productivity. In the so-called '30-50 club' countries, both labor productivity and growth rate tend to fall after reaching the per capita income of $30,000. The degree of decline in the growth rate is closely related to changes in the working age population and the prime-age workforce. The results are similar when tracking the path of changes in total factor productivities of the economy. When a certain level of income is reached, the increase in total factor productivity also tends to slow down. The ripple effects of rapid changes in demographics will indeed be extensive. The negative impact is likely to be concentrated at a time when the working age population, the prime-age workforce, and the total population shrink simultaneously. Above all, it is necessary to use the government's fiscal space to block the possibility of a rapid fall in the growth rate. In addition, it is important to continuously implement various reform tasks that should be promoted, such as improving the education system and strengthening the social safety net.

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Population Projection and"0" Growth Population of Korea (우리나라의 장래 인구전망과 <0>성장인구추계)

  • 김태헌;장영식
    • Korea journal of population studies
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    • v.17 no.1
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    • pp.1-16
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    • 1994
  • Since 1962, the population growth control has been one of the most important aims in the 5-Year So-cioeconomic Development Plans of Korea. The annual population growth rate has dropped to tess than 1 percent in 1990 from about 3 percents in 1960s, and projected to reach to $\ulcorner$0$\urcorner$ percent in 2021. From 2021, Korean population will decrease and the age structure will be distorted because birth rate will drop suddenly and continuously. Thus, we can consider $\ulcorner$0$\urcorner$ growth population for minimizing the prob- lems on the decreasing population. To discuss the problems caused from the changes of population size and age- sex composition, we projected three kinds of population including two kinds of $\ulcorner$0$\urcorner$ growth population under different as- sumptions. The first is the population which extended the projection of National Statistical Office up to 2090. Because the TFR is assumed and fixed as low as 1.63 after 1990, the population growth rate will be under $\ulcorner$0$\urcorner$ in 2021 and drop by about 1 percent every year from around 2050. This population trend results to old age population : 38.1 of old- age dependency ratio and 46.5 years of median age. The second is the population which the size in 2021 projected by the NOS continues after 2021. To change over from the decreasing population after 2021 to the $\ulcorner$0$\urcorner$ growth one, the TFR should be in-creased up to over 3.0 in 2040-2050, which fertility level would be too high to be accepted. The third is the population which approaches to the $\ulcorner$0$\urcorner$ growth population under the assumptions that the TFR increases from 1.63 to 2.1 in the period of 2010-2030 and then the same level continues. Although the maximum population size reaches 51, 503 thousand persons, the population will approach to the stationary population with about 42.4 million persons around 2090. In this projected population there is no more serious problems on population composition, on the rapid decrease of population, and on the increase TFR level. When the $\ulcorner$0$\urcorner$ growth population continues the problems of over population caused by the populationincrease wou]d be minimized, and the problems of unusual age composition resulted from the popula-tion decrease would not be found any more. Furthermore, when the changes of population size and composition is continuing slowly, the factors of population would effect moderately to socioeconomic development and help social changes. Therefore, with the attention of the present population changes, we should adapt new and detailde population policy which is able to get the $\ulcorner$0$\urcorner$ growth population.

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A comparative study of major of social indicators focusing on the population between Korea and Taiwan (한국과 대만의 주요 사회지표 비교고찰 -인구지표를 중심으로-)

  • 한영자;고갑석
    • Korea journal of population studies
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    • v.9 no.2
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    • pp.30-41
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    • 1986
  • It is worthwhile to compare the major social indicators between Korea the and Taiwan particularly focusing on population because two countries share close similarities in many aspects and gave access to the advanced level among the developing countries in recent years. Similarities or dissimilarities presented in this paper will be helpful to the researchers and the policy makers of the two countries by giving them insight on the situation. The similarities and dissimilarities between the two countries in the field of demography and social indicators are summarized as follows : 1. Similarity indicators can be found in fertility. One of them is Net Reproduction Rate and it was less than one in both countries in 1985. The past trend of fertility, in fact level and pattern of it, of the two countries from 1960 to 1985 has been very similar. 2. Level and pattern of mortality is quite different between two countries. Mortality level of Taiwan is lower than that of Korea. 3. The close similarity between two countries was shown in population structure and aging index. 4. On future population projection, the population structure and the level and pattern of fertility of the two countries are very similar. During fourty years, the period from the current population growth rate which is a little more than 1% to the zero growth rate, the annual population growth rate of the two countries is approximately 0.6% and that is similar to those of the current industrialized countries. According to the medium variant of the projection, Korean population will reach Zero Growth Rate between 2020 and 2025 whereas Taiwan between 2025 and 2020 5. Current level of contraceptive prevalence of both countries is very similar showing above 70% of the eligible women in 1985 and one of the valuable factors of achieving this high rate within short period must be the national program of the family planning. A close cooperation in the field of population policy formulation and its implementation is indispensable because Korea and Taiwan have similarity in many population indicators.

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Estimation of Population Growth Rate using Jolly-Seber Method and Robust Design

  • Kim, Jihye;Hong, Taekyong;Choi, JinSik;Namkung, Pyong
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.10 no.3
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    • pp.919-930
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    • 2003
  • Mark-Recapture method for open population commonly use Jolly-Seber method. This method assumes that all animals are equally likely to be caught in each sample (the equal catchability). This objects are making introduction of Mark-Recapture method for open population and using the robust design that combine a open population method with close population method to solve upper problems. Then population growth rate estimators that are derived Pollock's Jolly-Seber parameters and Kendall's Jolly-Seber parameters are estimated.

Studies on the Dry Matter Production and Structure of Rice Plants I. Growth Rate and Productive Structure of Rice Population (수도(水稻)의 물질생산(物質生産)과 그 구조(構造)에 관(關)한 연구(硏究) I. 수도개체군(水稻個體群)의 생장속도(生長速度)와 생산구조(生産構造))

  • Ahn, Su Bong
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural Science
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    • v.8 no.1
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    • pp.3-10
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    • 1981
  • In order to analyze growth and yield of rice population at the stand point of productive ecology, productive structure and growth rate of rice plants and effects of their related factors were studied. The results obtained were summarized as follows: 1. High crop growth rate was maintained throughout growing season when rice plants grew in population compared to a single rice plant. Since crop growth rate in rice stands were also higher at ripening stage, higher yields were obtained. 2. Higher crop growth rate of rice plants in population was maintained by the increase of leaf area rather than by net assimilation rate. 3. As the overgrowth of upper leaves of plant population in some rice varieties transmission of light into lower leaves was inhibited and thus most of them were eventually died before flowering. 4. In the case of rice population, the ratio of productive organ to non-productive organ, light transmission rate and nitrogen contents of active leaf blade were lower than individual rice plants under isolated condition.

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Growth characteristics of bloom forming Mallomonas elongata (Synurophyceae) based on silicate and light intensity

  • Kim, Han-Soon;Lee, Kyung-Lak
    • ALGAE
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    • v.26 no.1
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    • pp.73-77
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    • 2011
  • A dominant planktonic bloom-forming species, Mallomonas elongata was isolated from a small shallow eutrophic pond. The growth characteristics of this species on variable silicate concentrations and light intensities were investigated in laboratory unialgal cultures. In culture condition of $15^{\circ}C$, the maximum population growth and the highest growth rate of M. elongata occurred at a light intensity of $80\;{\mu}mol\;m^{-2}s^{-1}$, and in culture condition of $18^{\circ}C$, it exhibited the maximum population growth and the highest growth rates at a light intensity of $50\;{\mu}mol\;m^{-2}s^{-1}$. Silicate concentration had no effect on the population growth and growth rate of M. elongata.