• Title/Summary/Keyword: population distribution prediction

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Development of a Risk Index for Prediction of Abnormal Pap Test Results in Serbia

  • Vukovic, Dejana;Antic, Ljiljana;Vasiljevic, Mladenko;Antic, Dragan;Matejic, Bojana
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.16 no.8
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    • pp.3527-3531
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    • 2015
  • Background: Serbia is one of the countries with highest incidence and mortality rates for cervical cancer in Central and South Eastern Europe. Introducing a risk index could provide a powerful means for targeting groups at high likelihood of having an abnormal cervical smear and increase efficiency of screening. The aim of the present study was to create and assess validity ofa index for prediction of an abnormal Pap test result. Materials and Methods: The study population was drawn from patients attending Departments for Women's Health in two primary health care centers in Serbia. Out of 525 respondents 350 were randomly selected and data obtained from them were used as the index creation dataset. Data obtained from the remaining 175 were used as an index validation data set. Results: Age at first intercourse under 18, more than 4 sexual partners, history of STD and multiparity were attributed statistical weights 16, 15, 14 and 13, respectively. The distribution of index scores in index-creation data set showed that most respondents had a score 0 (54.9%). In the index-creation dataset mean index score was 10.3 (SD-13.8), and in the validation dataset the mean was 9.1 (SD=13.2). Conclusions: The advantage of such scoring system is that it is simple, consisting of only four elements, so it could be applied to identify women with high risk for cervical cancer that would be referred for further examination.

Prediction of Stream Flow on Probability Distributed Model using Multi-objective Function (다목적함수를 이용한 PDM 모형의 유량 분석)

  • Ahn, Sang-Eok;Lee, Hyo-Sang;Jeon, Min-Woo
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation
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    • v.9 no.5
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    • pp.93-102
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    • 2009
  • A prediction of streamflow based on multi-objective function is presented to check the performance of Probability Distributed Model(PDM) in Miho stream basin, Chungcheongbuk-do, Korea. PDM is a lumped conceptual rainfall runoff model which has been widely used for flood prevention activities in UK Environmental Agency. The Monte Carlo Analysis Toolkit(MCAT) is a numerical analysis tools based on population sampling, which allows evaluation of performance, identifiability, regional sensitivity and etc. PDM is calibrated for five model parameters by using MCAT. The results show that the performance of model parameters(cmax and k(q)) indicates high identifiability and the others obtain equifinality. In addition, the multi-objective function is applied to PDM for seeking suitable model parameters. The solution of the multi-objective function consists of the Pareto solution accounting to various trade-offs between the different objective functions considering properties of hydrograph. The result indicated the performance of model and simulated hydrograph are acceptable in terms on Nash Sutcliffe Effciency*(=0.035), FSB(=0.161), and FDBH(=0.809) to calibration periods, validation periods as well.

Spectroscopy Of Globular Clusters In M87

  • Kim, Soo-Young;Tamura, Naoyuki;Yoon, Seok-Jin;Sohn, Sang-Mo;Arimoto, Nobuo;Kodama, Tadayuki;Yamada, Yoshihiko;Lee, Young-Wook;Kim, Hak-Sub;Chung, Chul;Rey, Soo-Chang
    • The Bulletin of The Korean Astronomical Society
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    • v.35 no.2
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    • pp.31.2-31.2
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    • 2010
  • We have performed a spectroscopic study of globular cluster (GC) system associated with the Virgo cD galaxy M87 using the Subaru/FOCAS MOS mode. We derive ages, metallicities and abundance ratios from the GC spectra using Simple Stellar Population (SSP) models. The metallicity distribution function (MDF) obtained empirically based on Milky Way GCs is consistent with the MDF derived from SSP models. A comparison with a meta-analysis using literature data sample of 15 other GC systems shows good agreement with our results. The properties of GCs acquired from the spectra will be used to test the recent theoretical prediction of a significant inflection along the colour-metallicity relations (Yoon et al. 2006). If confirmed, the non-linearity of the relations would shed new light on the interpretation of the GC colour bimodality. The robustness of our results is being tested against the choice of a SSP model, measurement errors and sample selection towards the goal of better understanding the formation history of GCs and host galaxy.

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Genetic Polymorphism of Interleukin 10 Gene and Sasang Constitution in Bell's Palsy Patients

  • Kim, Jong-Won;Seo, Jung-Chul;Jung, Tae-Young
    • Journal of Physiology & Pathology in Korean Medicine
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    • v.19 no.2
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    • pp.515-519
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    • 2005
  • We hypothesized that the IL10 gene is important candidate in the development of Bell's palsy and specific genotypic and allelic variations should be associated with Bell's palsy in the Korean population. In this study, we assessed the SNP (single-nucleotide polymorphism) of IL10 in patients with Bell's palsy. 62 patients with Bell's palsy were selected from the subjects who visited for the Bell's palsy service of the department of acupuncture & moxibustion, college of Oriental Medicine, Daegu Haany University from May 2002 to May 2003. Pyrosequencing was performed for genetic analyses. There was no statistically significant genotypic distribution difference between control and Bell's palsy group And there was not statistically significant allelic frequency difference between control and Bell's palsy group. In this study the IL10 genotypemight not be the risk factor of Bell's palsy patients in Korean. studies will be necessary for the exact genetic markers. Establishment of more systemic approach and high quality of prospective cohorts will be necessary for the good prediction of genetic markers.

GIS Based Sinkhole Susceptibility Analysisin Karst Terrain: A Case Study of Samcheok-si (GIS를 활용한 카르스트 지역의 싱크홀 민감성 분석: 삼척시를 중심으로)

  • Ahn, Sejin;Sung, Hyo Hyun
    • Journal of The Geomorphological Association of Korea
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.75-89
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    • 2017
  • Sinkholes are key karst landforms that primarily evolve through the dissolution of limestone, and it posing a significant threat to roads, buildings, and other man-made structures. This study aims to analyze the area susceptible to sinkhole development using GIS and to identify potential danger area from sinkholes. Eight sinkhole related factors (slope angle, distance to caves, distance to faults, bedrock lithology, soil depth, drainage class, distance to mines, and distance to traffic routes) were constructed as spatial databases with sinkhole inventory. Based on the spatial database, sinkhole susceptibility maps were produced using nearest neighbor distance and frequency ratio models. The maps were verified with prediction rate curve and area under curve. The result indicates that the nearest neighbor distance and frequency ratio models predicted 95.3% and 94.4% of possible sinkhole locations respectively. Furthermore, to identify potential sinkhole danger area, the susceptibility map was compared with population distribution and land use map. It has been found that very highly susceptible areas are along Osipcheon and southeast southwest part of Hajang-myeon and south part of Gagok-myeon of Samcheok-si. Among those areas, it has been identified that potential sinkhole danger areas are Gyo-dong, Seongnae-dong, Jeongna-dong, Namyang-dong and Dogye-eup. These results can be useful in the aspects of land use planning and hazard prevention and management.

A Study on the Numerical Approach for Industrial Life Cycle: Empirical Evidence from Korea

  • LEE, Kangsun;CHOI, Kyujin;CHO, Daemyeong
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.8 no.5
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    • pp.667-678
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    • 2021
  • The industrial life cycle theory was extended to the product life cycle theory and the corporate life cycle theory, but a conceptual life cycle was presented, and quantitative empirical evidence for this was insufficient. It is intended to improve appropriate resource planning and resource allocation by quantitatively predicting the industrial cycle and its position (age) in the cycle. Human resources, tangible assets, and industrial output analysis were conducted based on 28 years of actual data of 39 industries in Korea by applying the Gompertz model, which is a population ecology prediction model. By predicting with the Gompertz model, the coefficient of determination R2 value was 97% or more, confirming the high suitability with the actual cumulative sales value of the industry. A numerical model for calculating the life cycle of each industry, calculating the saturation of input resources for each industry, and diagnosing the financial stability of the industry was presented. These results will contribute to the decision-making of industrial policy officers for budget planning appropriately for each stage of industry development. Future research will apply the numerical model of this study to foreign national industries, complete an inter-industry convergence diagnostic model (e.g. ease of convergence, suitability of convergence, etc.) for renewal of fading industries.

Spatial and Temporal Variation Characteristics between Water Quality and Pollutant Loads of Yeong-il Bau(I) - Seasonal Variation of River Discharge and Inflowing Pollutant Loads - (영일만 유입오염부하량과 수질의 시ㆍ공간적 변동특성(I) - 하천유량과 유입오염부하량의 계절변동 -)

  • 윤한삼;이인철;류청로
    • Journal of Ocean Engineering and Technology
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    • v.17 no.4
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    • pp.23-30
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    • 2003
  • This study investigates the seasonal variation and spatial distribution characteristics of pollutant load, as executing the quality valuation of pollutant load inflowing into Yeong-il Bay from on-land including the Hyeong-san River. Annual total pollutant generating rate from Yeong-il Bay region are 202ton-BOD/day, 620ton-SS/day, 42ton-TN/day, and 16ton-TP/day, respectively. Particularly, the generating ration of the pollutant loads from the Hyeong-san River is greater than that of any other watershed of the Yeong-il Bay, of which BOd is about 78.2%, SS 88.5%, T-N 62.5%, T-P 73.1%, As calculating Tank model with input value of daily precipitation and evaporation of 2001 year in drainage basin of the Hyeong-san River, the estimated result of the annual river discharge effluence from this river is 830106㎥, As a result to estimating annual effluence rate outflowing at the rivers from each drainage basin. annual inflow pollutant rates are 10,633ton-BOD/year, 19,302ton-SS/year, 15,369ton-TN/year, 305ton-TP/year, respectively. The population congestion region of the Pohang-city is a greater source of pollutant loads than the Neang-Chun region with wide drainage area. Therefore, the quantity of TN inflowing into Yeong-il Bay is much more than T-P. The accumulation of pollutant load effluenced from on-land will happen at the inner coast region of Yeon-il Bay. Finally, We would make a prediction that the water quality will take a bad turn.

Seasonal Variation of Pollutant load flowing into Yeong-Il bay (영일만 유입오염부하량의 계절 변동에 관한 연구)

  • Yoon, Han-Sam;Lee, In-Cheol;Ryu, Cheong-Ro;Park, Jong-Hwa
    • Proceedings of the Korea Committee for Ocean Resources and Engineering Conference
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    • 2002.10a
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    • pp.100-107
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    • 2002
  • This study investigates the seasonal variation and spatial distribution characteristics of pollutant load, as executing the quantity valuation of pollutant load inflowing into Yeong-Il bay from on-land including the Hyeong-san river. Annual total pollutant generating rate from Yeong-Il bay region are 202ton to BOD, 620ton to SS, 42ton to T-N, 16ton to T-P respectively, if expressly point out, pollutant generating rate from the Hyeong-san river is the greatest, which BOD ratio is 78.2%, SS 88.5%, T-N 62.5%, T-P 73.1%. As calculating Tank model with input value of daily precipitation and evaporation of 2001 year in drainage basin of the Hyeong-san river, Estimated result of the annual total river discharge effluencing from this river is $830{\times}106m^3$. As result to estimating annual total effluence rate outflowing at the rivers from each drainage basins, annual total inflow pollutant rate are BOD 10,633ton, SS 19,302ton, T-N 15,369ton, T-P 305ton. The III basin which is population congestion region of the Pohang-city drain away a good many pollutant load than the V basin including the Neang-Chun with wide drainage area. Especially, a great many T-N than T-P inflow into Yeong-Il bay. The accumulation of pollutant load effluenced from on-land will happen on at the inner coast region of Yeong-Il bay, finally we would make a prediction that the water quality will take a bad turn.

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A Study on the Training Optimization Using Genetic Algorithm -In case of Statistical Classification considering Normal Distribution- (유전자 알고리즘을 이용한 트레이닝 최적화 기법 연구 - 정규분포를 고려한 통계적 영상분류의 경우 -)

  • 어양담;조봉환;이용웅;김용일
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.15 no.3
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    • pp.195-208
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    • 1999
  • In the classification of satellite images, the representative of training of classes is very important factor that affects the classification accuracy. Hence, in order to improve the classification accuracy, it is required to optimize pre-classification stage which determines classification parameters rather than to develop classifiers alone. In this study, the normality of training are calculated at the preclassification stage using SPOT XS and LANDSAT TM. A correlation coefficient of multivariate Q-Q plot with 5% significance level and a variance of initial training are considered as an object function of genetic algorithm in the training normalization process. As a result of normalization of training using the genetic algorithm, it was proved that, for the study area, the mean and variance of each class shifted to the population, and the result showed the possibility of prediction of the distribution of each class.

A Methodology of Customer Churn Prediction based on Two-Dimensional Loyalty Segmentation (이차원 고객충성도 세그먼트 기반의 고객이탈예측 방법론)

  • Kim, Hyung Su;Hong, Seung Woo
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.26 no.4
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    • pp.111-126
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    • 2020
  • Most industries have recently become aware of the importance of customer lifetime value as they are exposed to a competitive environment. As a result, preventing customers from churn is becoming a more important business issue than securing new customers. This is because maintaining churn customers is far more economical than securing new customers, and in fact, the acquisition cost of new customers is known to be five to six times higher than the maintenance cost of churn customers. Also, Companies that effectively prevent customer churn and improve customer retention rates are known to have a positive effect on not only increasing the company's profitability but also improving its brand image by improving customer satisfaction. Predicting customer churn, which had been conducted as a sub-research area for CRM, has recently become more important as a big data-based performance marketing theme due to the development of business machine learning technology. Until now, research on customer churn prediction has been carried out actively in such sectors as the mobile telecommunication industry, the financial industry, the distribution industry, and the game industry, which are highly competitive and urgent to manage churn. In addition, These churn prediction studies were focused on improving the performance of the churn prediction model itself, such as simply comparing the performance of various models, exploring features that are effective in forecasting departures, or developing new ensemble techniques, and were limited in terms of practical utilization because most studies considered the entire customer group as a group and developed a predictive model. As such, the main purpose of the existing related research was to improve the performance of the predictive model itself, and there was a relatively lack of research to improve the overall customer churn prediction process. In fact, customers in the business have different behavior characteristics due to heterogeneous transaction patterns, and the resulting churn rate is different, so it is unreasonable to assume the entire customer as a single customer group. Therefore, it is desirable to segment customers according to customer classification criteria, such as loyalty, and to operate an appropriate churn prediction model individually, in order to carry out effective customer churn predictions in heterogeneous industries. Of course, in some studies, there are studies in which customers are subdivided using clustering techniques and applied a churn prediction model for individual customer groups. Although this process of predicting churn can produce better predictions than a single predict model for the entire customer population, there is still room for improvement in that clustering is a mechanical, exploratory grouping technique that calculates distances based on inputs and does not reflect the strategic intent of an entity such as loyalties. This study proposes a segment-based customer departure prediction process (CCP/2DL: Customer Churn Prediction based on Two-Dimensional Loyalty segmentation) based on two-dimensional customer loyalty, assuming that successful customer churn management can be better done through improvements in the overall process than through the performance of the model itself. CCP/2DL is a series of churn prediction processes that segment two-way, quantitative and qualitative loyalty-based customer, conduct secondary grouping of customer segments according to churn patterns, and then independently apply heterogeneous churn prediction models for each churn pattern group. Performance comparisons were performed with the most commonly applied the General churn prediction process and the Clustering-based churn prediction process to assess the relative excellence of the proposed churn prediction process. The General churn prediction process used in this study refers to the process of predicting a single group of customers simply intended to be predicted as a machine learning model, using the most commonly used churn predicting method. And the Clustering-based churn prediction process is a method of first using clustering techniques to segment customers and implement a churn prediction model for each individual group. In cooperation with a global NGO, the proposed CCP/2DL performance showed better performance than other methodologies for predicting churn. This churn prediction process is not only effective in predicting churn, but can also be a strategic basis for obtaining a variety of customer observations and carrying out other related performance marketing activities.